Digressive Celts

Matches › 2025/26

Livingston 1–1 St. Mirren

Saturday 28 February 2026, 15:00 · Home of the Set Fare Arena · Round 29 · Half-time 0–1 · Referee Don Robertson · Attendance 2,065

Livingston Kabongolo 76'

St. Mirren Nlundulu 44'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

LivingstonSt. Mirren
Goals11
xG0.701.02
Expected Points1.031.61

Livingston 22%Draw 36%St. Mirren 42%

Most likely score 0–1, 19%. Final score 1–1, 16%.

St. Mirren goalsLivingston goals0123456+0123456+9%3%11%7%2%4%5%3%17%19%16%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

00.511.50153045607590HTBokila on for Danso and McKay on for L. Smith, 60'Nouble on for Muirhead, 69'Sylla on for Pittman, 86'Donnelly on for Baccus and Idowu on for Nlundulu, 82'Young on for Phillips and King on for Richardson, 90+3'Etete on for Mandron, 90+5'Kabongolo 76'Nlundulu 44'St. Mirren 1.02Livingston 0.7000.511.50153045607590HTBokila on for Danso and McKay on for L. Smith, 60'Nouble on for Muirhead, 69'Sylla on for Pittman, 86'Donnelly on for Baccus and Idowu on for Nlundulu, 82'Young on for Phillips and King on for Richardson, 90+3'Etete on for Mandron, 90+5'Kabongolo 76'Nlundulu 44'1.020.70LivingstonSt. Mirren

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

LivingstonSt. Mirren

0.70 −0.30xG1.02 −0.16
1.09 +0.06xG on target0.91 −0.06
10 +0.5Shots11 −1.3
3 −0.4Shots on target2 −1.7
2 +0.6Big chances2 +0.2
22 +2Touches in the opposition box27 +2
51% +7Possession49% +4
392 +32Passes383 +37
72% 0Pass accuracy70% −4
36% −2Field tilt64% +18
26 −6Final-third entries31 −7
9 +0.6Box entries12 +0.6
18.9 +6Passes per defensive action11.8 −4
7 +2.5Corners2 −3.9
12 −6Tackles14 0
8 −0.7Interceptions7 +0.5
33 −2Clearances40 +10
1 −2.2Saves2 −1.1
11 −4Fouls18 +5
2 +0.6Offsides1 −1.3

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Livingston

Muirhead 45+1', 0.14 xGNouble 90+2', 0.09 xGPittman 32', 0.07 xGL. Smith 32', 0.06 xGL. Smith 40', 0.06 xGNouble 86', 0.06 xGFati 71', 0.04 xGMuirhead 18', 0.03 xGKabongolo 74', 0.03 xGKabongolo 76', 0.11 xG, goal20%0.14 xGSix-yard box: 1 shot, 0.14 xG, 0 goals59%0.41 xGCentral box: 6 shots, 0.41 xG, 1 goal13%0.09 xGWide in the box: 2 shots, 0.09 xG, 0 goals9%0.06 xGEdge of the box: 1 shot, 0.06 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

St. Mirren

Nlundulu 57', 0.34 xGO'Hara 14', 0.15 xGMandron 57', 0.13 xGNlundulu 44', 0.07 xGRichardson 6', 0.05 xGMandron 15', 0.04 xGPhillips 50', 0.04 xGO'Hara 62', 0.03 xGNlundulu 64', 0.03 xGO'Hara 23', 0.01 xGNlundulu 44', 0.12 xG, goal0%0.00 xGSix-yard box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals78%0.80 xGCentral box: 5 shots, 0.80 xG, 1 goal3%0.03 xGWide in the box: 1 shot, 0.03 xG, 0 goals19%0.19 xGEdge of the box: 5 shots, 0.19 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

LivingstonSt. Mirren

0.27 4 shots, 1 goalOpen play0.84 6 shots, 1 goal
0.21 2 shots, 0 goalsCounter-attacks0.10 2 shots, 0 goals
0.22 4 shots, 0 goalsSet pieces0.08 3 shots, 0 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
63 min (66%) · Livingston 0.36, St. Mirren 0.44 xG
St. Mirren ahead
33 min (34%) · Livingston 0.33, St. Mirren 0.58 xG

Line-ups

282327520198253915PriorKabongoloWilsonMcGowanDansoFinlaysonPittmanTaitFatiMuirheadL. SmithGoalYellow card60'86'69'60'Livingston 3-1-4-2Marvin Bartley12213212882563149GeorgeFraserGogicFreckletonRichardsonPhillipsBaccusO'HaraTanserNlunduluMandronYellow cardGoalYellow card90+3'90+3'82'82'90+5'St. Mirren 3-5-2Stephen Robinson

Livingston substitutes

  • 60' McKay for L. Smith · 1 assist
  • 60' Bokila for Danso
  • 69' Nouble for Muirhead
  • 86' Sylla for Pittman

St. Mirren substitutes

  • 82' Donnelly for Baccus
  • 82' Idowu for Nlundulu
  • 90+3' King for Richardson
  • 90+3' Young for Phillips
  • 90+5' Etete for Mandron

Players

Livingston

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
PriorGK900.000.0110.0541
KabongoloCB9010.140.0310.08117
WilsonCB900.000.0000.0118
McGowanCB900.000.0000.0545
Danso DM600.000.0000.0118
FinlaysonRWB900.000.1010.0535
PittmanCM860.070.000−0.0415
TaitCM900.000.0700.1760
FatiLWB900.040.000−0.0234
MuirheadST690.170.0410.2231
L. SmithST600.120.0410.0730
McKayMF3010.000.1620.0930
BokilaFW300.000.000−0.0100
NoubleFW210.140.0100.0101
SyllaMF40.000.0000.0001

St. Mirren

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
GeorgeGK900.000.0000.0320
Fraser CB900.000.0200.0769
GogicCB900.000.0100.0438
FreckletonCB900.000.0100.06515
RichardsonRWB900.050.0200.0453
PhillipsCM900.040.032−0.0525
BaccusCM820.000.0200.0321
O'HaraCM900.180.1310.0834
TanserLWB900.000.4020.67117
NlunduluST8210.570.1610.0313
Mandron ST9010.170.4210.1317
DonnellyMF80.000.0000.0100
IdowuFW80.000.0000.0310
KingDF00.000.0000.0000
YoungFW00.000.0000.0000
EteteFW00.000.0000.0000

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Livingston

Prior and Finlayson: 3 passesMcGowan and Danso: 3 passesWilson and Tait: 3 passesDanso and Tait: 3 passesDanso and Fati: 3 passesTait and Muirhead: 3 passesMcGowan and Tait: 4 passesKabongolo and Danso: 4 passesKabongolo and Muirhead: 4 passesFinlayson and L. Smith: 4 passesWilson and Danso: 5 passesFinlayson and Pittman: 5 passesPittman and L. Smith: 5 passesTait and L. Smith: 5 passesPrior and McGowan: 6 passesDanso and Finlayson: 6 passesTait and Fati: 6 passesMcGowan and Wilson: 8 passesWilson and Kabongolo: 8 passesPrior and Wilson: 9 passesMcGowan and Fati: 10 passesMuirhead and L. Smith: 13 passesKabongolo and Finlayson: 14 passesPrior: 18 completed passesMcGowan: 22 completed passesWilson: 22 completed passesKabongolo: 19 completed passesDanso: 14 completed passesFinlayson: 17 completed passesPittman: 7 completed passesTait: 15 completed passesFati: 14 completed passesMuirhead: 13 completed passesL. Smith: 12 completed passes285272320198253915PriorMcGowanWilsonKabongoloDansoFinlaysonPittmanTaitFatiMuirheadL. SmithStarters until 60' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

St. Mirren

George and Richardson: 5 passesGogic and O'Hara: 5 passesFreckleton and O'Hara: 5 passesFraser and Baccus: 5 passesFraser and Phillips: 5 passesBaccus and Mandron: 5 passesO'Hara and Nlundulu: 5 passesGeorge and Gogic: 6 passesRichardson and Baccus: 6 passesRichardson and Mandron: 6 passesMandron and Nlundulu: 6 passesTanser and Nlundulu: 7 passesPhillips and O'Hara: 7 passesGeorge and Freckleton: 8 passesFreckleton and Baccus: 10 passesFraser and Richardson: 10 passesTanser and O'Hara: 11 passesFreckleton and Tanser: 12 passesGogic and Fraser: 24 passesGogic and Freckleton: 27 passesGeorge: 13 completed passesGogic: 40 completed passesFreckleton: 43 completed passesFraser: 30 completed passesRichardson: 20 completed passesTanser: 25 completed passesBaccus: 21 completed passesPhillips: 15 completed passesO'Hara: 24 completed passesMandron: 14 completed passesNlundulu: 13 completed passes11321222325886914GeorgeGogicFreckletonFraserRichardsonTanserBaccusPhillipsO'HaraMandronNlunduluStarters until 82' · lines join pairs with 5+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Livingston

FromToPasses
KabongoloFinlayson14
FinlaysonKabongolo10
WilsonMcGowan9
McGowanFati9
MuirheadL. Smith8

St. Mirren

FromToPasses
FreckletonGogic18
GogicFraser17
GogicFreckleton10
FraserRichardson10
FraserGogic9

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Livingston

4−1.18−0.212+4.77+1.45−1.811+3.06−0.64−4.05−2.85+0.45+0.23−1.06+0.44−2.13−0.83−1.12−0.54+0.42−2.02−0.61−0.91−0.42+0.11−1.72+0.70−0.30−0.80−0.50−1.013−5.5FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 28 matches

St. Mirren

4−0.96−1.515−1.68+1.010+5.210+4.17+0.14−2.312+4.59+2.76+1.55+0.83+0.25+1.35+1.14+0.33−0.12−0.63+0.33−0.25+2.420.06+4.32+0.13+0.20−0.91+0.51+0.10−0.30−0.6FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 27 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Livingston

0.010.010.030.020.040.030.020.020.050.010.020.020.020.060.080.030.08−0.05−0.020.060.21LessMore

St. Mirren

0.020.040.010.010.020.040.010.020.030.010.040.020.020.040.030.010.010.090.13−0.050.080.060.49LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.0League average 1.33AttackLivingston0.93 → 0.92St. Mirren1.12 → 1.12Defence (lower is better)Livingston1.87 → 1.87St. Mirren1.43 → 1.42

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Livingston
11th6%5%−1
Bottom93%94%+1
St. Mirren
11th20%23%+3
Bottom1%<1%−1
Kilmarnock
11th62%60%−2
Bottom6%5%−1

From the forecast before the match (28 February 2026): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

LivingstonSt. Mirren
Expected goals1.171.41
Win31%42%
Expected Points1.201.53
Clean sheet24%31%

Livingston 31%Draw 28%St. Mirren 42%

Most likely score 1–1, 13%. Both sides score 53%.

St. Mirren goalsLivingston goals0123456+0123456+8%8%4%1%8%9%4%1%5%7%5%2%2%3%2%1%10%13%

From the forecast as it stood on 28 February 2026: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowLivingston winDrawSt. Mirren win
Livingston
11th6%10%5%3%
Bottom93%87%94%97%
St. Mirren
11th20%28%23%12%
Bottom1%3%<1%<1%
Kilmarnock
11th62%51%60%70%
Bottom6%10%5%3%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Livingston

  1. D2–222 FebRangers (H)xG 0.30–3.74
  2. D2–214 FebDundee FC (A)xG 1.29–0.91
  3. L1–211 FebCeltic (A)xG 1.06–3.44
  4. L1–24 FebFalkirk (H)xG 0.57–2.40
  5. L0–231 JanMotherwell (H)xG 0.22–1.62
  6. L2–624 JanAberdeen (A)xG 2.01–3.08

St. Mirren

  1. L0–521 FebMotherwell (H)xG 1.00–2.20
  2. L0–214 FebHibernian (A)xG 0.30–1.19
  3. L3–411 FebKilmarnock (A)xG 1.96–2.76
  4. W1–03 FebHearts (H)xG 2.31–0.23
  5. D0–031 JanDundee FC (H)xG 1.04–0.78
  6. D1–120 JanLivingston (A)xG 1.41–1.47

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

LivingstonSt. Mirren
Position12th10th
Played2827
Won, drawn, lost1–⁠10–⁠175–⁠8–⁠14
Points13 (0.46 per game)23 (0.85 per game)
Expected Points per game0.811.22
Goals30–⁠5821–⁠42
xG per game1.00–⁠2.041.18–⁠1.39
Home: points, xG per game0.57, 1.03–⁠1.901.21, 1.18–⁠1.04
Away: points, xG per game0.36, 0.98–⁠2.170.46, 1.17–⁠1.77
ManagerMarvin Bartley (3)Stephen Robinson (98)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.0League average 1.33AttackLivingston0.93, 12thSt. Mirren1.12, 8thDefence (lower is better)Livingston1.87, 12thSt. Mirren1.43, 7th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovDecJanFebLivingston attack: 0.93St. Mirren attack: 1.121.120.93St. MirrenLivingstonDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovDecJanFebLivingston defence: 1.87St. Mirren defence: 1.431.871.43

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

LivingstonSt. Mirren
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−37%+40%−23%+3%
Counter-attacks−60%+26%−33%+54%
Set pieces−23%+49%+14%−21%
Penalties+47%+72%−49%−49%
Headers−38%+30%+13%+5%
Left side−44%+28%−18%−1%
Centre−34%+41%−14%+9%
Right side−32%+55%−11%−10%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Livingston attacking

Livingston createdSt. Mirren concededLeft side−44%−10%Centre−34%+9%Right side−32%−1%Open play−37%+3%Counter-attacks−60%+54%Set pieces−23%−21%Headers−38%+5%

St. Mirren attacking

St. Mirren createdLivingston concededLeft side−18%+55%Centre−14%+41%Right side−11%+28%Open play−23%+40%Counter-attacks−33%+26%Set pieces+14%+49%Headers+13%+30%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

LivingstonSt. Mirren

1.00xG1.18
2.04xG against1.39
44%Possession44%
9.5Shots12.3
15.2Shots against12.9
3.4Shots on target3.7
1.4Big chances1.8
19.5Touches in the opposition box24.7
360Passes346
73%Pass accuracy74%
4.5Corners5.9
38%Field tilt46%
31.7Final-third entries37.9
8.4Box entries11.4
13.3Passes per defensive action15.7

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Livingston

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level410.972.12
Ahead100.863.11
Behind381.071.65

St. Mirren

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level581.191.37
Ahead120.831.62
Behind201.341.32

xG by period

Livingston

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.090.414–12
16–300.170.276–7
31–450.250.435–8
46–600.130.324–7
61–750.170.254–6
76–900.200.377–18

St. Mirren

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.170.171–1
16–300.170.214–4
31–450.160.292–9
46–600.190.183–8
61–750.190.284–7
76–900.290.277–13

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Livingston

GKRBCBCBLBCMCMCMRWSTLWPrior 28Finlayson 13Brenet 9Lawal 5McGowan 17Finlayson 10Sylla 2Wilson 21Kabongolo 3Blaney 3Montaño 13Montgomery 8Finlayson 2Tait 23Danso 4Wilson 1Pittman 23L. Smith 2Muirhead 1Sylla 14Susoho 13Carey 1L. Smith 13McLennan 4Kabongolo 3Muirhead 9Bokila 8Yengi 7May 13McLennan 4Yengi 44-3-3 in 11 of 28 starts

Formations: 4-3-3 (11), 4-2-3-1 (11), 3-5-2 (4), 3-4-2-1 (1), 5-4-1 (1)

St. Mirren

GKCBCBCBRWBCMCMCMLWBSTSTGeorge 27Fraser 24King 18Gogic 13Freckleton 26Richards… 17RichardsonMcMena… 8McMenaminIdowu 1Phillips 27Baccus 11Devaney 4McMena… 4McMenaminGogic 11O'Hara 9Idowu 5John 24Tanser 2McMenamin 1Mandron 21Idowu 6Young 3Nlundulu 11Ayunga 11John 13-5-2 in 20 of 27 starts

Formations: 3-5-2 (20), 5-3-2 (3), 4-2-3-1 (1), 3-4-3 (1), 3-4-1-2 (1), 3-1-4-2 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
20 January 2026Livingston1–1St. MirrenxG 1.47–1.41
20 December 2025St. Mirren1–0LivingstonxG 2.23–0.24
17 February 2024Livingston1–0St. MirrenxG 0.97–2.07
25 November 2023St. Mirren1–0LivingstonxG 0.81–0.59
2 September 2023Livingston1–1St. MirrenxG 1.45–0.67
1 April 2023St. Mirren3–0LivingstonxG 3.07–1.20

15 league meetings since 2020/21: Livingston won 1, St. Mirren won 7, and 7 were drawn. Goals 8–16 and xG 0.95–1.13 per game.

Key players

Livingston

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Muirhead131,154420.460.17
Yengi111,054200.300.08
McLennan8766300.260.08
Bokila9853500.310.02

St. Mirren

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
McMenamin131,152110.210.26
Mandron211,882430.250.12
Ayunga11953200.340.03
Nlundulu121,177200.260.06

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.