Digressive Celts

Matches › 2024/25

Hearts 1–2 Kilmarnock

Wednesday 30 October 2024, 19:45 · Tynecastle Park · Round 10 · Half-time 1–0 · Referee Euan Anderson · Attendance 18,402

Hearts Forrest 44'

Kilmarnock Kennedy 58', Vassell 63'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

HeartsKilmarnock
Goals12
xG1.111.73
Expected Points0.931.81

Hearts 22%Draw 26%Kilmarnock 52%

Most likely score 1–1, 13%. Final score 1–2, 11%.

Kilmarnock goalsHearts goals0123456+0123456+5%9%5%2%6%6%2%3%7%7%3%1%1%2%2%1%10%13%11%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

00.511.520153045607590HTGrant on for Vargas and Oyegoke on for Forrester, 64'Wilson on for Devlin and McKay on for Spittal, 75'Dhanda on for Forrest, 84'Burroughs on for Wright, 69'McKenzie on for Watkins, 78'Cameron on for Vassell, Murray on for Armstrong, and Bainbridge on for Kennedy, 83'Forrest 44'Kennedy 58'Vassell 63'Kilmarnock 1.73Hearts 1.1100.511.520153045607590HTGrant on for Vargas and Oyegoke on for Forrester, 64'Wilson on for Devlin and McKay on for Spittal, 75'Dhanda on for Forrest, 84'Burroughs on for Wright, 69'McKenzie on for Watkins, 78'Cameron on for Vassell, Murray on for Armstrong, and Bainbridge on for Kennedy, 83'Forrest 44'Kennedy 58'Vassell 63'1.731.11HeartsKilmarnock

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

HeartsKilmarnock

1.11 −0.09xG1.73 +0.41
1.18 +0.02xG on target1.07 +0.02
18 +5Shots15 +3
5 +1.7Shots on target4 +1.2
1 −1.1Big chances1 −1.1
36 +9Touches in the opposition box25 +7
69% +13Possession31% −12
577 +120Passes263 −42
82% +5Pass accuracy61% −5
81% +24Field tilt19% −21
59 +17Final-third entries19 −13
19 +6.8Box entries9 +0.3
8.5 −4Passes per defensive action16.2 −1
10 +3.9Corners1 −4.3
14 −6Tackles17 +3
4 −4.8Interceptions15 +7.1
18 −2Clearances35 +6
2 −0.2Saves4 +1.1
14 +2Fouls9 −2
1 −0.6Offsides1 −0.3

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Hearts

Boateng 25', 0.13 xGKent 22', 0.08 xGBoateng 49', 0.08 xGShankland 90+1', 0.08 xGDhanda 90+2', 0.07 xGSpittal 9', 0.06 xGForrest 54', 0.06 xGShankland 73', 0.06 xGForrest 30', 0.05 xGShankland 51', 0.05 xGGrant 68', 0.05 xGVargas 2', 0.04 xGGrant 81', 0.04 xGBoateng 45+3', 0.03 xGDevlin 27', 0.02 xGForrest 33', 0.02 xGShankland 65', 0.02 xGForrest 44', 0.20 xG, goal10%0.11 xGSix-yard box: 2 shots, 0.11 xG, 0 goals53%0.59 xGCentral box: 6 shots, 0.59 xG, 1 goal5%0.06 xGWide in the box: 1 shot, 0.06 xG, 0 goals30%0.34 xGEdge of the box: 8 shots, 0.34 xG, 0 goals2%0.02 xGFurther out: 1 shot, 0.02 xG, 0 goals

Kilmarnock

Ndaba 45+1', 0.23 xGWright 41', 0.21 xGWatkins 61', 0.20 xGVassell 40', 0.17 xGCameron 86', 0.13 xGArmstrong 38', 0.08 xGVassell 58', 0.08 xGDeas 71', 0.06 xGVassell 61', 0.05 xGWatkins 23', 0.04 xGArmstrong 61', 0.02 xGVassell 37', 0.01 xGKennedy 71', 0.01 xGVassell 63', 0.31 xG, goalKennedy 58', 0.13 xG, goal29%0.51 xGSix-yard box: 2 shots, 0.51 xG, 1 goal62%1.08 xGCentral box: 8 shots, 1.08 xG, 1 goal6%0.10 xGWide in the box: 2 shots, 0.10 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGEdge of the box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals2%0.04 xGFurther out: 3 shots, 0.04 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

HeartsKilmarnock

0.48 10 shots, 0 goalsOpen play1.04 10 shots, 1 goal
0.63 8 shots, 1 goalSet pieces0.69 5 shots, 1 goal

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
49 min (52%) · Hearts 0.59, Kilmarnock 1.08 xG
Hearts ahead
17 min (18%) · Hearts 0.21, Kilmarnock 0.45 xG
Kilmarnock ahead
29 min (31%) · Hearts 0.31, Kilmarnock 0.20 xG

Line-ups

1352152917141816779GordonForresterKentRowlesPenriceForrestDevlinBoatengSpittalVargasShanklandYellow cardGoal64'84'75'75'64'Hearts 4-4-2Neil Critchley2045631181210923McCrorieWrightMayoDeasNdabaArmstrongLyonsWatsonKennedyVassellWatkinsGoalYellow cardGoalYellow cardYellow card69'83'83'83'78'Kilmarnock 4-4-2Derek McInnes

Hearts substitutes

  • 64' Oyegoke for Forrester
  • 64' Grant for Vargas
  • 75' McKay for Spittal
  • 75' Wilson for Devlin
  • 84' Dhanda for Forrest

Kilmarnock substitutes

  • 69' Burroughs for Wright
  • 78' McKenzie for Watkins
  • 83' Bainbridge for Kennedy
  • 83' Murray for Armstrong
  • 83' Cameron for Vassell

Players

Hearts

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
GordonGK900.000.0000.0440
ForresterRB640.000.0400.1262
KentCB900.080.3510.1265
RowlesCB900.000.1400.2686
Penrice LB900.000.1520.0958
ForrestRM8410.320.1310.2651
DevlinCM750.020.0420.0135
BoatengCM900.240.0510.0657
SpittalLM7510.060.5340.0261
VargasST640.040.1210.0141
ShanklandST900.200.131−0.0300
OyegokeMF260.000.0210.0332
GrantMF260.090.0610.0341
McKayFW150.000.0900.1810
WilsonFW150.000.0000.0000
DhandaMF60.070.0510.1020

Kilmarnock

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
McCrorieGK900.000.0000.0341
WrightRB6910.210.7410.0112
MayoCB900.000.0000.01312
DeasCB900.060.2100.25417
NdabaLB900.230.0200.0539
ArmstrongRM830.090.1710.1344
LyonsCM900.000.000−0.0113
WatsonCM900.000.0100.0122
Kennedy LM8310.140.3230.1747
Vassell ST8310.620.2820.1910
Watkins ST780.240.1420.0805
BurroughsDF210.000.0000.0118
McKenzieMF120.000.0000.0111
BainbridgeDF70.000.0910.0711
MurrayMF70.000.0000.0112
CameronFW70.130.000−0.0100

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Hearts

Kent and Spittal: 6 passesDevlin and Shankland: 6 passesVargas and Shankland: 6 passesGordon and Kent: 7 passesPenrice and Forrest: 7 passesForrest and Devlin: 7 passesForrest and Boateng: 7 passesRowles and Boateng: 8 passesForrest and Spittal: 8 passesDevlin and Spittal: 8 passesBoateng and Spittal: 8 passesRowles and Devlin: 9 passesPenrice and Devlin: 10 passesKent and Boateng: 11 passesSpittal and Vargas: 13 passesForrester and Kent: 14 passesForrester and Boateng: 14 passesRowles and Spittal: 15 passesRowles and Penrice: 18 passesKent and Devlin: 18 passesDevlin and Boateng: 19 passesPenrice and Spittal: 20 passesRowles and Kent: 28 passesGordon: 17 completed passesForrester: 21 completed passesRowles: 49 completed passesKent: 45 completed passesPenrice: 35 completed passesForrest: 20 completed passesDevlin: 46 completed passesBoateng: 41 completed passesSpittal: 40 completed passesVargas: 18 completed passesShankland: 13 completed passes1351522917141816779GordonForresterRowlesKentPenriceForrestDevlinBoatengSpittalVargasShanklandStarters until 64' · lines join pairs with 6+ passes

Kilmarnock

Wright and Mayo: 3 passesWright and Lyons: 3 passesDeas and Mayo: 3 passesArmstrong and Watson: 3 passesArmstrong and Vassell: 3 passesLyons and Kennedy: 3 passesKennedy and Vassell: 3 passesWright and Watson: 4 passesDeas and Watson: 4 passesKennedy and Watkins: 4 passesWatkins and Vassell: 4 passesMcCrorie and Deas: 5 passesDeas and Ndaba: 5 passesDeas and Kennedy: 5 passesMayo and Lyons: 5 passesArmstrong and Kennedy: 6 passesWright and Armstrong: 7 passesNdaba and Lyons: 8 passesNdaba and Kennedy: 9 passesDeas and Lyons: 11 passesMcCrorie: 9 completed passesWright: 10 completed passesDeas: 21 completed passesMayo: 11 completed passesNdaba: 14 completed passesArmstrong: 12 completed passesWatson: 10 completed passesLyons: 19 completed passesKennedy: 15 completed passesWatkins: 7 completed passesVassell: 5 completed passes2046531112810239McCrorieWrightDeasMayoNdabaArmstrongWatsonLyonsKennedyWatkinsVassellStarters until 69' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Hearts

FromToPasses
KentRowles25
RowlesPenrice22
RowlesKent19
PenriceSpittal18
KentDevlin13

Kilmarnock

FromToPasses
NdabaKennedy9
LyonsDeas8
DeasNdaba7
DeasLyons6
KennedyArmstrong5

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Hearts

4−2.211−1.87+0.35−0.87+0.25−0.84−2.18+1.83−3.04+0.42−0.88+2.37+0.59+4.44+0.92−1.34+1.33−0.84+1.62+0.13+2.40−0.81−0.62+1.40−0.50−1.00−0.30−1.40−4.72−4.4FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 10 matches

Kilmarnock

7+3.412+3.123+5.27−0.310+4.72−2.24−3.36+0.75−1.010+4.08+2.92−2.43−0.17+2.83−1.43−0.13−0.83+1.35+1.14+0.41−0.82+0.41+0.11+0.33+0.30−0.60−0.60−0.30−0.40−0.7FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 9 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Hearts

0.010.030.010.020.010.020.020.040.040.020.090.050.050.130.030.100.010.050.13−0.020.060.13−0.120.010.210.17LessMore

Kilmarnock

0.030.010.010.010.010.020.010.020.010.010.050.060.010.010.160.07−0.010.070.020.100.33LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.34AttackHearts1.35 → 1.32Kilmarnock1.22 → 1.24Defence (lower is better)Hearts1.29 → 1.31Kilmarnock1.38 → 1.35

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Hearts
Top six40%27%−13
11th6%10%+4
Bottom4%6%+2
Kilmarnock
Top six44%58%+14
11th6%4%−2
Bottom4%2%−2

From the forecast before the match (30 October 2024): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

HeartsKilmarnock
Expected goals1.601.08
Win49%25%
Expected Points1.721.02
Clean sheet34%20%

Hearts 49%Draw 26%Kilmarnock 25%

Most likely score 1–1, 12%. Both sides score 53%.

Kilmarnock goalsHearts goals0123456+0123456+7%7%4%1%6%2%9%5%2%5%5%3%1%2%2%1%10%12%9%

From the forecast as it stood on 30 October 2024: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowHearts winDrawKilmarnock win
Hearts
Top six40%49%35%27%
11th6%4%7%10%
Bottom4%2%4%6%
Kilmarnock
Top six44%36%47%58%
11th6%7%5%4%
Bottom4%6%4%2%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Hearts

  1. D1–127 OctHibernian (A)xG 1.17–1.97
  2. W4–019 OctSt. Mirren (H)xG 1.73–0.24
  3. L2–36 OctAberdeen (A)xG 2.02–0.69
  4. D1–128 SepRoss County (H)xG 1.94–0.84
  5. L1–221 SepSt. Mirren (A)xG 0.39–1.17
  6. L0–214 SepCeltic (A)xG 0.65–2.88

Kilmarnock

  1. L1–226 OctRoss County (A)xG 0.72–0.82
  2. W1–020 OctRangers (H)xG 0.63–1.14
  3. W3–25 OctDundee FC (A)xG 2.72–0.62
  4. D3–328 SepDundee United (H)xG 2.31–2.73
  5. D2–214 SepSt. Mirren (A)xG 0.59–1.53
  6. D1–11 SepHibernian (H)xG 2.54–0.44

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

HeartsKilmarnock
Position11th9th
Played109
Won, drawn, lost1–⁠3–⁠62–⁠3–⁠4
Points6 (0.60 per game)9 (1.00 per game)
Expected Points per game1.281.22
Goals11–⁠1611–⁠19
xG per game1.20–⁠1.391.32–⁠1.54
Home: points, xG per game1.25, 1.41–⁠0.771.25, 1.80–⁠1.52
Away: points, xG per game0.17, 1.06–⁠1.800.80, 0.93–⁠1.55
ManagerNeil Critchley (1)Derek McInnes (85)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.34AttackHearts1.35, 3rdKilmarnock1.22, 7thDefence (lower is better)Hearts1.29, 3rdKilmarnock1.38, 5th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0SepOctHearts attack: 1.35Kilmarnock attack: 1.221.351.22KilmarnockHeartsDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0SepOctHearts defence: 1.29Kilmarnock defence: 1.381.381.29

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

HeartsKilmarnock
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−15%−19%−21%+20%
Counter-attacks−39%+14%−82%−98%
Set pieces+34%+32%+68%−4%
Penalties−100%+49%−17%+149%
Headers+10%+42%+18%−46%
Left side+19%+3%−24%−24%
Centre−14%−6%+8%+13%
Right side−1%+5%+1%+8%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Hearts attacking

Hearts createdKilmarnock concededLeft side+19%+8%Centre−14%+13%Right side−1%−24%Open play−15%+20%Counter-attacks−39%−98%Set pieces+34%−4%Headers+10%−46%

Kilmarnock attacking

Kilmarnock createdHearts concededLeft side−24%+5%Centre+8%−6%Right side+1%+3%Open play−21%−19%Counter-attacks−82%+14%Set pieces+68%+32%Headers+18%+42%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

HeartsKilmarnock

1.20xG1.32
1.39xG against1.54
56%Possession43%
12.7Shots12.2
11.6Shots against15.2
3.3Shots on target2.8
2.1Big chances2.1
27.1Touches in the opposition box18.0
457Passes305
77%Pass accuracy67%
6.1Corners5.3
57%Field tilt40%
42.3Final-third entries31.9
12.2Box entries8.7
12.1Passes per defensive action16.8

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Hearts

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level460.921.83
Ahead81.460.32
Behind361.511.04

Kilmarnock

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level391.131.47
Ahead61.783.06
Behind441.421.38

xG by period

Hearts

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.280.251–2
16–300.090.201–2
31–450.160.341–4
46–600.110.271–2
61–750.150.133–2
76–900.400.204–4

Kilmarnock

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.200.161–2
16–300.080.260–4
31–450.140.341–3
46–600.130.252–2
61–750.300.202–2
76–900.470.335–6

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Hearts

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTGordon 8Clark 2Taylor 4Oyegoke 3Kingsley 2Kent 7Halkett 3Rowles 8Kingsley 2Penrice 5Kingsley 2Spittal 1Devlin 4Baningime 3Penrice 1Boateng 6Grant 3Spittal 1Dhanda 3Vargas 3Oyegoke 1Grant 3Vargas 2Shankland 1Spittal 4Vargas 2Forrest 2Shankland 9Vargas 14-2-3-1 in 4 of 10 starts

Formations: 4-2-3-1 (4), 4-4-2 (2), 3-4-2-1 (2), 3-5-2 (1), 4-3-3 (1)

Kilmarnock

GKRBCBCBLBRMCMCMLMSTSTMcCrorie 5O'Hara 4Mayo 3Lyons 2Armstrong 2Mayo 4Deas 3Wright 2Findlay 8Ndaba 1Ndaba 5Lyons 2Deas 1Armstrong 6Watson 1Wright 1Watson 4Lyons 3Watkins 1Donnelly 4Polworth 4Kennedy 8Murray 1Vassell 8Cameron 1Watkins 5Donnelly 1Deas 14-4-2 in 5 of 9 starts

Formations: 4-4-2 (5), 3-4-2-1 (1), 4-1-4-1 (1), 3-4-1-2 (1), 4-3-3 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
27 April 2024Kilmarnock0–0HeartsxG 0.89–1.95
30 March 2024Hearts1–1KilmarnockxG 1.61–1.55
2 December 2023Kilmarnock0–1HeartsxG 1.16–0.73
13 August 2023Hearts0–0KilmarnockxG 0.39–0.73
1 April 2023Kilmarnock2–1HeartsxG 2.72–0.68
17 December 2022Hearts3–1KilmarnockxG 2.40–1.09

7 league meetings since 2020/21: Hearts won 2, Kilmarnock won 1, and 4 were drawn. Goals 8–6 and xG 1.28–1.40 per game.

Key players

Hearts

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Shankland10866130.350.18
Dhanda5478010.080.21
Spittal6554210.120.15
Kent8720200.210.04

Kilmarnock

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Kennedy8700210.170.33
Watkins6547300.460.04
Vassell8592000.320.05
Armstrong8643020.060.16

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.