Digressive Celts

Matches › 2023/24

Hearts 2–0 Aberdeen

Saturday 27 January 2024, 15:00 · Tynecastle Park · Round 23 · Half-time 0–0 · Referee Kevin Clancy · Attendance 18,790

Hearts Grant 57' (pen), Shankland 77'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

HeartsAberdeen
Goals20
xG1.580.93
Non-penalty xG0.790.93
Expected Points1.910.81

Hearts 54%Draw 28%Aberdeen 17%

Most likely score 1–1, 17%. Final score 2–0, 12%.

Aberdeen goalsHearts goals0123456+0123456+4%3%2%7%2%12%12%6%2%5%5%2%1%1%16%17%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

00.511.520153045607590HTVargas on for Oda, 69'Tait on for Grant, 81'Halkett on for Shankland, 90+1'Duk on for Polvara, 65'Sokler on for McGrath and Morris on for Barron, 70'MacDonald on for Gartenmann, 71'Grant 57' (pen)Shankland 77'Hearts 1.58Aberdeen 0.9300.511.520153045607590HTVargas on for Oda, 69'Tait on for Grant, 81'Halkett on for Shankland, 90+1'Duk on for Polvara, 65'Sokler on for McGrath and Morris on for Barron, 70'MacDonald on for Gartenmann, 71'Grant 57' (pen)Shankland 77'1.580.93HeartsAberdeen

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

HeartsAberdeen

1.58 +0.38xG0.93 −0.43
0.79Non-penalty xG0.93
2.02 +0.77xG on target0.16 −1.11
15 +2Shots16 +4
5 +0.7Shots on target1 −2.9
1 −0.3Big chances0 −1.7
26 +1Touches in the opposition box29 +6
55% 0Possession45% −4
400 −51Passes325 −51
72% −3Pass accuracy68% 0
60% +7Field tilt40% −6
43 +2Final-third entries34 +3
14 +2Box entries16 +6
14.3 +2Passes per defensive action11.9 −2
7 0.0Corners7 +2.3
17 +3Tackles24 +7
3 −3.5Interceptions14 +5.9
29 +7Clearances28 +3
1 −1.6Saves3 −0.2
10 −2Fouls14 +3
0 −0.9Offsides1 −0.1

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Hearts

Vargas 87', 0.14 xGVargas 83', 0.08 xGKingsley 43', 0.06 xGForrest 61', 0.06 xGNieuwenhof 37', 0.05 xGGrant 38', 0.05 xGKent 62', 0.05 xGOda 37', 0.04 xGShankland 66', 0.04 xGOda 12', 0.03 xGShankland 67', 0.03 xGForrest 47', 0.02 xGForrest 71', 0.02 xGShankland 77', 0.13 xG, goal0%0.00 xGSix-yard box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals29%0.23 xGCentral box: 3 shots, 0.23 xG, 0 goals15%0.12 xGWide in the box: 4 shots, 0.12 xG, 0 goals56%0.44 xGEdge of the box: 7 shots, 0.44 xG, 1 goal0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Aberdeen

Clarkson 9', 0.13 xGClarkson 4', 0.12 xGDuk 84', 0.08 xGBarron 49', 0.07 xGMcGrath 49', 0.07 xGClarkson 45+2', 0.06 xGShinnie 78', 0.06 xGMiovski 17', 0.05 xGClarkson 45', 0.05 xGMacKenzie 90+1', 0.05 xGBarron 45+3', 0.04 xGDevlin 84', 0.04 xGMcGrath 22', 0.03 xGPolvara 30', 0.03 xGMiovski 30', 0.03 xGPolvara 1', 0.02 xG13%0.12 xGSix-yard box: 1 shot, 0.12 xG, 0 goals58%0.54 xGCentral box: 9 shots, 0.54 xG, 0 goals15%0.14 xGWide in the box: 3 shots, 0.14 xG, 0 goals11%0.10 xGEdge of the box: 2 shots, 0.10 xG, 0 goals3%0.03 xGFurther out: 1 shot, 0.03 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

HeartsAberdeen

0.65 11 shots, 1 goalOpen play0.62 11 shots, 0 goals
0.14 3 shots, 0 goalsSet pieces0.31 5 shots, 0 goals
0.79 1 shot, 1 goalPenalties0.00 0 shots, 0 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
60 min (64%) · Hearts 1.04, Aberdeen 0.69 xG
Hearts ahead
34 min (36%) · Hearts 0.55, Aberdeen 0.24 xG

Line-ups

2881231986117179ClarkLembikisaKentKingsleyCochraneNieuwenhofBaningimeOdaGrantForrestShanklandYellow cardGoalGoal69'81'90+1'Hearts 4-2-3-1Steven Naismith24265384211079RoosDevlinGartenmannJensenMacKenzieBarronShinniePolvaraClarksonMcGrathMiovskiYellow card71'70'65'70'Aberdeen 4-2-3-1Barry Robson

Hearts substitutes

  • 69' Vargas for Oda
  • 81' Tait for Grant
  • 90+1' Halkett for Shankland

Aberdeen substitutes

  • 65' Duk for Polvara · yellow card 73'
  • 70' Sokler for McGrath
  • 70' Morris for Barron
  • 71' MacDonald for Gartenmann

Players

Hearts

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
ClarkGK900.000.0000.0330
LembikisaRB900.000.0900.17113
KentCB900.050.0210.11513
KingsleyCB900.060.0100.0749
CochraneLB900.000.0310.0459
NieuwenhofDM900.050.1520.1044
BaningimeDM900.000.0300.0587
Oda RW690.070.0100.0331
GrantAM81110.840.0630.1432
ForrestLW900.110.0400.1281
ShanklandST9010.190.0220.0421
VargasMF210.210.0500.0532
TaitMF90.000.0510.0723
HalkettDF00.000.0000.0002

Aberdeen

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
RoosGK900.000.0000.0001
DevlinRB900.040.0420.0553
GartenmannCB710.000.0000.0666
JensenCB900.000.0400.10413
MacKenzieLB900.050.0300.1048
BarronDM700.110.0200.0226
Shinnie DM900.060.1020.0845
PolvaraRW650.050.0710.2243
ClarksonAM900.350.1220.1274
McGrathLW700.100.0610.1489
MiovskiST900.080.010−0.0210
Duk FW250.080.0010.0112
SoklerFW200.000.0000.0000
MorrisFW200.000.0000.0002
MacDonaldDF190.000.0000.0237

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Hearts

Clark and Kent: 4 passesKent and Cochrane: 4 passesCochrane and Shankland: 4 passesNieuwenhof and Shankland: 4 passesBaningime and Oda: 4 passesLembikisa and Baningime: 5 passesKent and Oda: 5 passesOda and Grant: 5 passesGrant and Forrest: 6 passesLembikisa and Kingsley: 7 passesKingsley and Grant: 7 passesCochrane and Forrest: 7 passesBaningime and Grant: 7 passesLembikisa and Grant: 8 passesKingsley and Baningime: 8 passesCochrane and Grant: 8 passesKent and Baningime: 9 passesLembikisa and Kent: 14 passesLembikisa and Oda: 14 passesLembikisa and Nieuwenhof: 16 passesKingsley and Cochrane: 16 passesKent and Kingsley: 26 passesClark: 6 completed passesLembikisa: 34 completed passesKent: 35 completed passesKingsley: 40 completed passesCochrane: 26 completed passesNieuwenhof: 17 completed passesBaningime: 26 completed passesOda: 18 completed passesGrant: 19 completed passesForrest: 6 completed passesShankland: 7 completed passes2881231986117179ClarkLembikisaKentKingsleyCochraneNieuwenhofBaningimeOdaGrantForrestShanklandStarters until 69' · lines join pairs with 4+ passes

Aberdeen

Devlin and Barron: 4 passesGartenmann and Barron: 4 passesJensen and Barron: 4 passesMacKenzie and Shinnie: 4 passesMacKenzie and Clarkson: 4 passesShinnie and McGrath: 4 passesBarron and Polvara: 4 passesBarron and Clarkson: 4 passesMcGrath and Miovski: 4 passesShinnie and Barron: 5 passesClarkson and Miovski: 5 passesRoos and Gartenmann: 6 passesDevlin and Polvara: 6 passesJensen and MacKenzie: 6 passesShinnie and Clarkson: 6 passesPolvara and Clarkson: 6 passesGartenmann and Jensen: 7 passesJensen and Shinnie: 8 passesMacKenzie and McGrath: 8 passesDevlin and Gartenmann: 10 passesDevlin and Clarkson: 10 passesRoos and Jensen: 11 passesRoos: 12 completed passesDevlin: 17 completed passesGartenmann: 16 completed passesJensen: 24 completed passesMacKenzie: 15 completed passesShinnie: 19 completed passesBarron: 19 completed passesPolvara: 13 completed passesClarkson: 16 completed passesMcGrath: 16 completed passesMiovski: 9 completed passes24265348211079RoosDevlinGartenmannJensenMacKenzieShinnieBarronPolvaraClarksonMcGrathMiovskiStarters until 65' · lines join pairs with 4+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Hearts

FromToPasses
KingsleyKent19
KentKingsley12
LembikisaKent11
NieuwenhofLembikisa10
KingsleyCochrane10

Aberdeen

FromToPasses
DevlinClarkson10
JensenRoos7
RoosJensen7
RoosGartenmann7
DevlinGartenmann6

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Hearts

5−0.510+2.426+10.74−3.15+0.55−2.85−0.66+1.83−4.53−4.05−0.25−0.27+2.37+1.55−1.15+1.11−3.230.03−0.35+0.23+1.42+0.40−1.11−0.32−0.40−0.80−0.80−0.60−0.80−0.7FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 22 matches

Aberdeen

50.010+1.913−2.218+10.33−1.65−3.02−4.88+1.85−4.817+8.68+1.83−3.54+0.29+3.68+2.06+1.64+0.90−2.16+1.811+6.23+0.71−0.71+0.31−0.42−0.50−1.30−0.50−0.42+1.80−0.5FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 19 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Hearts

0.030.010.050.010.010.010.050.020.030.010.020.060.050.050.07−0.020.070.060.060.020.120.100.09LessMore

Aberdeen

0.010.010.010.010.050.010.010.040.020.030.060.010.100.060.030.030.110.07−0.05−0.060.020.180.15LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.28AttackHearts1.29 → 1.30Aberdeen1.23 → 1.21Defence (lower is better)Hearts1.25 → 1.23Aberdeen1.32 → 1.34

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Aberdeen
Top six65%57%−8
11th2%2%0
Dundee FC
Top six31%33%+2
Bottom2%2%0
Hibernian
Top six42%44%+2

From the forecast before the match (27 January 2024): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

HeartsAberdeen
Expected goals1.571.09
Win48%26%
Expected Points1.701.04
Clean sheet34%21%

Hearts 48%Draw 26%Aberdeen 26%

Most likely score 1–1, 13%. Both sides score 53%.

Aberdeen goalsHearts goals0123456+0123456+8%7%4%2%7%2%9%5%2%5%5%3%1%2%2%1%10%13%9%

From the forecast as it stood on 27 January 2024: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowHearts winDrawAberdeen win
Aberdeen
Top six65%57%65%79%
11th2%2%1%1%
Dundee FC
Top six31%33%31%27%
Bottom2%2%2%3%
Hibernian
Top six42%44%42%39%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Hearts

  1. W3–223 JanDundee FC (H)xG 2.21–0.69
  2. W2–12 JanLivingston (A)xG 1.94–1.66
  3. D2–230 DecRoss County (H)xG 1.87–1.54
  4. W1–027 DecHibernian (A)xG 1.30–1.85
  5. W2–023 DecSt. Mirren (H)xG 1.20–0.64
  6. W2–016 DecCeltic (A)xG 0.34–1.60

Aberdeen

  1. D1–124 JanSt. Johnstone (A)xG 1.21–0.99
  2. W3–02 JanRoss County (A)xG 1.72–0.14
  3. L0–330 DecSt. Mirren (H)xG 1.03–2.73
  4. W2–120 DecLivingston (H)xG 1.00–1.53
  5. W2–19 DecHearts (H)xG 1.74–0.33
  6. L0–16 DecKilmarnock (H)xG 1.14–0.64

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

HeartsAberdeen
Position3rd7th
Played2219
Won, drawn, lost12–⁠3–⁠76–⁠5–⁠8
Points39 (1.77 per game)23 (1.21 per game)
Expected Points per game1.301.28
Goals27–⁠2023–⁠30
xG per game1.20–⁠1.441.36–⁠1.61
Home: points, xG per game1.64, 1.34–⁠1.291.22, 1.40–⁠1.47
Away: points, xG per game1.91, 1.07–⁠1.601.20, 1.32–⁠1.73
ManagerSteven Naismith (18)Barry Robson (34)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.28AttackHearts1.29, 3rdAberdeen1.23, 4thDefence (lower is better)Hearts1.25, 4thAberdeen1.32, 5th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovDecJanHearts attack: 1.29Aberdeen attack: 1.231.291.23AberdeenHeartsDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovDecJanHearts defence: 1.25Aberdeen defence: 1.321.321.25

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

HeartsAberdeen
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−10%average−10%+14%
Counter-attacksaverage−24%+68%−11%
Set pieces−9%+14%+15%+29%
Penalties−25%+49%−14%+44%
Headers−26%−2%−2%+52%
Left side−5%−9%−6%+9%
Centre−17%−4%+19%+30%
Right side+3%+28%−21%−5%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Hearts attacking

Hearts createdAberdeen concededLeft side−5%−5%Centre−17%+30%Right side+3%+9%Open play−10%+14%Counter-attacksaverage−11%Set pieces−9%+29%Headers−26%+52%

Aberdeen attacking

Aberdeen createdHearts concededLeft side−6%+28%Centre+19%−4%Right side−21%−9%Open play−10%averageCounter-attacks+68%−24%Set pieces+15%+14%Headers−2%−2%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

HeartsAberdeen

1.20xG1.36
1.44xG against1.61
56%Possession49%
13.0Shots11.6
13.4Shots against12.8
4.3Shots on target3.9
1.3Big chances1.7
25.0Touches in the opposition box23.5
451Passes376
74%Pass accuracy68%
7.0Corners4.7
53%Field tilt46%
40.6Final-third entries30.7
12.4Box entries10.4
12.8Passes per defensive action14.4

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Hearts

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level441.301.14
Ahead280.811.75
Behind181.581.70

Aberdeen

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level431.021.24
Ahead201.851.77
Behind261.542.07

xG by period

Hearts

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.150.193–2
16–300.190.275–3
31–450.090.191–2
46–600.200.284–3
61–750.330.159–4
76–900.240.365–6

Aberdeen

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.100.221–4
16–300.190.345–5
31–450.290.165–1
46–600.180.213–1
61–750.260.215–5
76–900.340.474–14

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Hearts

GKCBCBCBRWBCMCMCMLWBSTSTClark 22Kingsley 10Atkinson 5Sibbick 4Kent 22Halkett 4Rowles 20Forrest 5Atkinson 5Oda 5Nieuwen… 14NieuwenhofDevlin 7Oda 1Baningime 12Boyce 3Shankland 2Lowry 7Denholm 6Grant 6Cochrane 13Vargas 3Lowry 3Shankland 20Kingsley 6Vargas 5Boyce 43-5-2 in 12 of 22 starts

Formations: 3-5-2 (12), 4-2-3-1 (8), 3-4-2-1 (1), 4-3-3 (1)

Aberdeen

GKCBCBCBRWBCMCMLWBAMSTSTRoos 19Gartenmann 15Devlin 3Polvara 2Rubezic 16MacDonald 4Jensen 14MacKenzie 3Devlin 16Morris 2Milne 1Clarkson 10Barron 6McGrath 2Shinnie 19MacKenzie 6McGarry 6Hayes 5McGrath 7Polvara 6Clarkson 5Miovski 18Sokler 3Duk 11McGrath 5Hayes 13-4-1-2 in 9 of 19 starts

Formations: 3-4-1-2 (9), 3-5-2 (3), 5-4-1 (3), 4-2-3-1 (2), 5-3-2 (2)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
9 December 2023Aberdeen2–1HeartsxG 1.74–0.33
16 September 2023Hearts2–0AberdeenxG 1.18–0.53
20 May 2023Hearts2–1AberdeenxG 2.55–1.01
18 March 2023Aberdeen3–0HeartsxG 2.03–0.52
18 January 2023Hearts5–0AberdeenxG 3.54–1.02
16 October 2022Aberdeen2–0HeartsxG 1.73–1.36

9 league meetings since 2020/21: Hearts won 4, Aberdeen won 4, and 1 was a draw. Goals 14–11 and xG 1.42–1.18 per game.

Key players

Hearts

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Shankland221,9801300.460.14
Boyce7631130.360.20
Lowry10733010.110.23
Forrest9950240.190.13

Aberdeen

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Miovski191,6161020.490.12
McGrath141,172610.340.14
Duk11982240.290.15
Clarkson151,443120.060.29

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.