Digressive Celts

Matches › 2024/25

Aberdeen 3–2 Hearts

Sunday 6 October 2024, 15:00 · Pittodrie Stadium · Round 7 · Half-time 1–1 · Referee John Beaton · Attendance 19,175

Aberdeen Keskinen 2', Devlin 65', Palaversa 88'

Hearts Kent 36', Spittal 63' · Grant sent off 75'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

AberdeenHearts
Goals32
xG0.692.02
Expected Points0.442.37

Aberdeen 8%Draw 19%Hearts 73%

Most likely score 0–2, 17%. Final score 3–2, 1%.

Hearts goalsAberdeen goals0123456+0123456+4%11%4%3%10%8%3%3%5%3%13%17%13%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

01230153045607590HTGrant (Hearts), second yellow card 75'Duk on for Clarkson and Sokler on for Nisbet, 61'Morris on for McGrath and Palaversa on for Keskinen, 72'Penrice on for Kingsley, 20'Forrester on for Oyegoke, 69'Baningime on for Vargas, 78'Forrest on for Dhanda, 79'Keskinen 2'Devlin 65'Palaversa 88'Kent 36'Spittal 63'Hearts 2.02Aberdeen 0.6901230153045607590HTGrant (Hearts), second yellow card 75'Duk on for Clarkson and Sokler on for Nisbet, 61'Morris on for McGrath and Palaversa on for Keskinen, 72'Penrice on for Kingsley, 20'Forrester on for Oyegoke, 69'Baningime on for Vargas, 78'Forrest on for Dhanda, 79'Keskinen 2'Devlin 65'Palaversa 88'Kent 36'Spittal 63'2.020.69AberdeenHearts

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

AberdeenHearts

0.69 −0.62xG2.02 +1.01
0.91 −0.68xG on target1.64 +0.79
11 −1Shots11 −2
3 −0.5Shots on target3 −0.4
0 −2.7Big chances5 +3.4
31 +8Touches in the opposition box19 −11
56% +2Possession44% −12
516 +98Passes400 −49
82% +4Pass accuracy73% −3
60% +1Field tilt40% −16
36 −3Final-third entries40 −3
19 +6Box entries10 −4
12.5 0Passes per defensive action14.5 +4
2 −5.0Corners5 −2.0
16 0Tackles19 −3
15 +6.5Interceptions15 +6.3
33 +5Clearances18 −2
1 −2.3Saves0 −2.4
8 −5Fouls17 +5
4 +1.8Offsides1 −0.9

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Aberdeen

Sokler 87', 0.15 xGMorris 85', 0.07 xGRubezic 14', 0.06 xGNisbet 23', 0.06 xGSokler 84', 0.06 xGDuk 87', 0.03 xGMacKenzie 32', 0.02 xGKeskinen 29', 0.01 xGPalaversa 88', 0.12 xG, goalDevlin 65', 0.06 xG, goalKeskinen 2', 0.04 xG, goal10%0.07 xGSix-yard box: 1 shot, 0.07 xG, 0 goals68%0.47 xGCentral box: 5 shots, 0.47 xG, 2 goals20%0.14 xGWide in the box: 4 shots, 0.14 xG, 1 goal0%0.00 xGEdge of the box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals1%0.01 xGFurther out: 1 shot, 0.01 xG, 0 goals

Hearts

Shankland 5', 0.45 xGVargas 54', 0.30 xGShankland 10', 0.26 xGRowles 44', 0.20 xGBoateng 40', 0.04 xGShankland 62', 0.04 xGDhanda 74', 0.03 xGShankland 67', 0.02 xGDhanda 7', 0.01 xGKent 36', 0.63 xG, goalSpittal 63', 0.02 xG, goal45%0.90 xGSix-yard box: 2 shots, 0.90 xG, 1 goal36%0.72 xGCentral box: 4 shots, 0.72 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGWide in the box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals20%0.40 xGEdge of the box: 5 shots, 0.40 xG, 1 goal0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

AberdeenHearts

0.62 10 shots, 3 goalsOpen play1.10 6 shots, 0 goals
0.07 1 shot, 0 goalsSet pieces0.91 5 shots, 2 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
52 min (54%) · Aberdeen 0.47, Hearts 0.65 xG
Aberdeen ahead
42 min (44%) · Aberdeen 0.15, Hearts 1.36 xG
Hearts ahead
2 min (2%) · Aberdeen 0.06, Hearts 0.00 xG

Line-ups

123321346811079MitovDevlinRubezicMolloyMacKenzieShinnieNilsenKeskinenClarksonMcGrathNisbetGoalGoal72'61'72'61'Aberdeen 4-2-3-1Jimmy Thelin1521531820777169GordonOyegokeKentRowlesKingsleyBoatengDhandaVargasGrantSpittalShanklandYellow cardGoalYellow cardYellow cardSent off, second yellowGoalYellow card69'20'79'78'Hearts 4-2-3-1Liam Fox

Aberdeen substitutes

  • 61' Duk for Clarkson
  • 61' Sokler for Nisbet · 1 assist
  • 72' Palaversa for Keskinen · goal 88', yellow card 90+6'
  • 72' Morris for McGrath

Hearts substitutes

  • 20' Penrice for Kingsley · yellow card 83'
  • 69' Forrester for Oyegoke · yellow card 76'
  • 78' Baningime for Vargas
  • 79' Forrest for Dhanda

Players

Aberdeen

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
MitovGK900.000.0000.0112
DevlinRB9010.060.0200.0796
RubezicCB900.060.0100.04216
MolloyCB900.000.0100.09614
MacKenzieLB900.020.1400.2897
ShinnieDM900.000.0610.0953
NilsenDM900.000.2520.1163
KeskinenRW7210.050.0200.0431
ClarksonAM610.000.2510.0112
McGrathLW7210.000.0210.0627
NisbetST610.060.001−0.0302
DukFW290.030.5410.2420
SoklerFW2910.210.001−0.0100
Palaversa MF1810.120.1010.1252
MorrisFW180.070.1410.2051

Hearts

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
Gordon GK900.000.0100.0420
OyegokeRB690.000.0310.0926
KentCB9010.630.0100.05710
RowlesCB900.200.1500.12912
KingsleyLB200.000.0000.0002
BoatengDM900.040.0100.0207
Dhanda DM790.040.1610.0962
VargasRW780.300.0200.0961
Grant AM750.000.0210.0242
SpittalLW9010.020.1820.2335
Shankland ST9010.780.2820.1622
Penrice DF700.000.0710.1045
Forrester DF210.000.0000.0001
BaningimeMF120.000.0000.0001
ForrestMF110.000.000−0.0100

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Aberdeen

Mitov and Nilsen: 5 passesNilsen and Keskinen: 5 passesDevlin and Nilsen: 6 passesDevlin and Keskinen: 6 passesMacKenzie and Nilsen: 6 passesNilsen and McGrath: 6 passesShinnie and Clarkson: 7 passesShinnie and McGrath: 7 passesClarkson and McGrath: 7 passesDevlin and Rubezic: 8 passesDevlin and Shinnie: 9 passesMitov and Rubezic: 10 passesMolloy and Shinnie: 10 passesNilsen and Clarkson: 10 passesMolloy and MacKenzie: 11 passesRubezic and Nilsen: 11 passesMacKenzie and Shinnie: 11 passesMolloy and McGrath: 13 passesMacKenzie and McGrath: 14 passesMitov and Molloy: 15 passesMacKenzie and Clarkson: 15 passesMolloy and Nilsen: 16 passesRubezic and Shinnie: 20 passesMolloy and Rubezic: 21 passesNilsen and Shinnie: 25 passesMitov: 27 completed passesDevlin: 22 completed passesMolloy: 49 completed passesRubezic: 40 completed passesMacKenzie: 34 completed passesNilsen: 47 completed passesShinnie: 47 completed passesKeskinen: 10 completed passesClarkson: 26 completed passesMcGrath: 24 completed passesNisbet: 7 completed passes122133364811079MitovDevlinMolloyRubezicMacKenzieNilsenShinnieKeskinenClarksonMcGrathNisbetStarters until 61' · lines join pairs with 5+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Aberdeen

FromToPasses
NilsenShinnie18
ShinnieNilsen16
RubezicShinnie14
MolloyNilsen14
MitovMolloy13

Hearts

FromToPasses
RowlesKent16
KentRowles15
PenriceDhanda10
RowlesDhanda9
GordonKent8

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Aberdeen

4+0.72−4.521+6.710+1.23−4.27+1.52−3.56+2.36−1.36−2.85−1.34+1.35+1.26−0.87+0.38+3.51−1.83+0.24+1.56+1.80−2.51+0.23+2.50−2.76+3.20−0.30−0.21+0.71+0.20−0.7FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 6 matches

Hearts

3−1.711+4.912−1.37−0.44−2.311+4.18+1.74−3.15−1.15−1.92−2.16+3.36+0.98+2.47+2.48+5.34+0.730.03−0.93+0.41−1.01+0.60−1.16+4.92+1.41+0.61−0.30−0.40−1.32−4.4FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 7 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Aberdeen

0.010.010.020.010.020.020.020.020.030.060.030.040.050.030.010.100.030.12−0.040.040.090.170.200.22LessMore

Hearts

0.010.010.030.010.040.020.030.010.010.040.010.100.030.030.020.03−0.010.03−0.010.060.060.150.050.24LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.34AttackAberdeen1.32 → 1.31Hearts1.30 → 1.32Defence (lower is better)Aberdeen1.29 → 1.32Hearts1.33 → 1.31

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Aberdeen
Top six97%98%+1
Hearts
Top six32%27%−5
11th9%10%+1
Bottom5%7%+2
Kilmarnock
Top six40%41%+1
11th7%7%0
Bottom3%3%0

From the forecast before the match (6 October 2024): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

AberdeenHearts
Expected goals1.561.11
Win47%26%
Expected Points1.681.06
Clean sheet33%21%

Aberdeen 47%Draw 26%Hearts 26%

Most likely score 1–1, 13%. Both sides score 53%.

Hearts goalsAberdeen goals0123456+0123456+8%7%4%2%7%2%8%5%2%4%5%3%1%2%2%1%10%13%9%

From the forecast as it stood on 6 October 2024: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowAberdeen winDrawHearts win
Aberdeen
Top six97%98%97%95%
Hearts
Top six32%27%29%43%
11th9%10%9%5%
Bottom5%7%5%3%
Kilmarnock
Top six40%41%39%37%
11th7%7%7%7%
Bottom3%3%3%4%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Aberdeen

  1. W2–128 SepDundee FC (A)xG 0.62–1.50
  2. W2–114 SepMotherwell (H)xG 1.85–1.67
  3. W1–031 AugRoss County (A)xG 0.35–1.05
  4. W2–025 AugKilmarnock (H)xG 1.66–0.43
  5. W3–111 AugSt. Mirren (H)xG 1.60–1.30
  6. W2–15 AugSt. Johnstone (A)xG 1.79–0.81

Hearts

  1. D1–128 SepRoss County (H)xG 1.94–0.84
  2. L1–221 SepSt. Mirren (A)xG 0.39–1.17
  3. L0–214 SepCeltic (A)xG 0.65–2.88
  4. L0–11 SepDundee United (H)xG 0.63–1.26
  5. L1–325 AugMotherwell (A)xG 0.62–2.54
  6. L1–310 AugDundee FC (A)xG 1.52–1.53

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

AberdeenHearts
Position2nd12th
Played67
Won, drawn, lost6–⁠0–⁠00–⁠2–⁠5
Points18 (3.00 per game)2 (0.29 per game)
Expected Points per game1.441.01
Goals12–⁠44–⁠12
xG per game1.31–⁠1.131.01–⁠1.57
Home: points, xG per game3.00, 1.70–⁠1.130.67, 1.30–⁠0.95
Away: points, xG per game3.00, 0.92–⁠1.120.00, 0.80–⁠2.03
ManagerJimmy Thelin (6)Liam Fox (0)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.34AttackAberdeen1.32, 3rdHearts1.30, 4thDefence (lower is better)Aberdeen1.29, 3rdHearts1.33, 4th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0SepOctAberdeen attack: 1.32Hearts attack: 1.301.321.30HeartsAberdeenDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0SepOctAberdeen defence: 1.29Hearts defence: 1.331.331.29

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

AberdeenHearts
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play+20%−25%−25%−7%
Counter-attacks−23%−70%−57%+46%
Set pieces−17%−30%+11%+29%
Penalties−100%+87%−100%+60%
Headers+57%−38%−2%+57%
Left side+36%−22%+1%+20%
Centre−3%−32%−20%−2%
Right side−5%−37%−35%+17%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Aberdeen attacking

Aberdeen createdHearts concededLeft side+36%+17%Centre−3%−2%Right side−5%+20%Open play+20%−7%Counter-attacks−23%+46%Set pieces−17%+29%Headers+57%+57%

Hearts attacking

Hearts createdAberdeen concededLeft side+1%−37%Centre−20%−32%Right side−35%−22%Open play−25%−25%Counter-attacks−57%−70%Set pieces+11%−30%Headers−2%−38%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

AberdeenHearts

1.31xG1.01
1.13xG against1.57
54%Possession56%
12.0Shots13.3
11.2Shots against12.6
3.5Shots on target3.4
2.7Big chances1.6
23.5Touches in the opposition box29.7
418Passes449
77%Pass accuracy76%
7.0Corners7.0
60%Field tilt55%
39.1Final-third entries42.8
13.2Box entries13.7
12.1Passes per defensive action10.9

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Aberdeen

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level381.650.58
Ahead521.071.52
Behind0––

Hearts

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level460.812.03
Ahead0––
Behind441.231.07

xG by period

Aberdeen

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.200.061–0
16–300.290.033–0
31–450.200.382–2
46–600.190.091–0
61–750.110.232–0
76–900.320.333–2

Hearts

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.200.330–1
16–300.110.261–2
31–450.060.420–4
46–600.100.350–2
61–750.160.062–0
76–900.380.141–3

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Aberdeen

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTMitov 6Devlin 6Rubezic 6Molloy 6MacKenzie 6Shinnie 5Palaversa 1Nilsen 6Keskinen 4Morris 2Gueye 4Clarkson 1Sokler 1McGrath 6Sokler 3Nisbet 2Miovski 14-2-3-1 in every start

Hearts

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTGordon 5Clark 2Taylor 4Kingsley 2Forrester 1Kent 4Halkett 3Rowles 5Kingsley 2Penrice 3Grant 1Vargas 1Devlin 3Baningime 2Penrice 1Grant 3Boateng 3Spittal 1Vargas 2Kent 1Taylor 1Grant 2Shankland 1Baningime 1Vargas 2Forrest 2Penrice 1Shankland 6Vargas 14-2-3-1 in 3 of 7 starts

Formations: 4-2-3-1 (3), 3-4-2-1 (2), 3-5-2 (1), 4-3-3 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
27 January 2024Hearts2–0AberdeenxG 1.58–0.93
9 December 2023Aberdeen2–1HeartsxG 1.74–0.33
16 September 2023Hearts2–0AberdeenxG 1.18–0.53
20 May 2023Hearts2–1AberdeenxG 2.55–1.01
18 March 2023Aberdeen3–0HeartsxG 2.03–0.52
18 January 2023Hearts5–0AberdeenxG 3.54–1.02

10 league meetings since 2020/21: Aberdeen won 4, Hearts won 5, and 1 was a draw. Goals 11–16 and xG 1.16–1.43 per game.

Key players

Aberdeen

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
McGrath6452230.210.37
Shinnie5450030.020.12
Devlin6540100.050.05
Nilsen6538010.010.08

Hearts

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Shankland7621110.300.11
Kent5450100.190.06
Rowles5450000.000.12
Kingsley5450000.020.07

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.