Digressive Celts

Matches › 2024/25

Hearts 1–1 Aberdeen

Sunday 1 December 2024, 15:00 · Tynecastle Park · Round 14 · Half-time 0–1 · Referee Kevin Clancy · Attendance 18,810

Hearts Devlin 62' (og)

Aberdeen Clarkson 37'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

HeartsAberdeen
Goals11
xG1.150.62
Expected Points1.780.88

Hearts 48%Draw 34%Aberdeen 18%

Most likely score 1–0, 20%. Final score 1–1, 15%.

Aberdeen goalsHearts goals0123456+0123456+10%3%4%11%8%3%4%3%16%20%15%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

00.511.50153045607590HTHalkett on for Kingsley, 29'Forrester on for Kent, 34'Grant on for Forrest and Vargas on for Drammeh, 79'Doohan on for Mitov, 46'Shinnie on for Palaversa, 58'Milne on for McGarry, 59'Duk on for Sokler, 75'Keskinen on for Morris, 80'Devlin 62' (og)Clarkson 37'Hearts 1.15Aberdeen 0.6200.511.50153045607590HTHalkett on for Kingsley, 29'Forrester on for Kent, 34'Grant on for Forrest and Vargas on for Drammeh, 79'Doohan on for Mitov, 46'Shinnie on for Palaversa, 58'Milne on for McGarry, 59'Duk on for Sokler, 75'Keskinen on for Morris, 80'Devlin 62' (og)Clarkson 37'1.150.62HeartsAberdeen

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

HeartsAberdeen

1.15 +0.01xG0.62 −0.81
0.20 −0.81xG on target1.35 −0.32
16 +4Shots8 −5
2 −1.1Shots on target3 −1.5
3 +1.1Big chances1 −1.3
21 −5Touches in the opposition box20 −6
54% 0Possession46% −8
473 +21Passes415 −11
82% +4Pass accuracy76% −2
57% +2Field tilt43% −12
48 +6Final-third entries31 −6
10 −2Box entries13 −1
10.9 −3Passes per defensive action13.0 +1
9 +2.8Corners6 +0.3
21 +2Tackles17 0
14 +5.2Interceptions7 −1.1
27 +6Clearances44 +13
2 −0.5Saves2 −0.9
9 −3Fouls17 +6
0 −1.5Offsides1 −0.8

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Hearts

Drammeh 62', 0.32 xGGrant 82', 0.18 xGShankland 82', 0.16 xGShankland 11', 0.08 xGShankland 90+6', 0.08 xGForrest 73', 0.06 xGSpittal 1', 0.04 xGDrammeh 9', 0.04 xGForrest 68', 0.04 xGSpittal 66', 0.03 xGSpittal 90+10', 0.03 xGForrest 13', 0.02 xGSpittal 37', 0.02 xGSpittal 41', 0.02 xGDevlin 85', 0.02 xGGrant 90+9', 0.02 xG41%0.47 xGSix-yard box: 2 shots, 0.47 xG, 0 goals31%0.36 xGCentral box: 4 shots, 0.36 xG, 0 goals10%0.11 xGWide in the box: 4 shots, 0.11 xG, 0 goals18%0.21 xGEdge of the box: 6 shots, 0.21 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Aberdeen

Clarkson 44', 0.16 xGClarkson 37', 0.10 xGMcGrath 72', 0.06 xGMcGrath 88', 0.06 xGMorris 76', 0.04 xGNilsen 49', 0.02 xGPalaversa 45+6', 0.01 xGClarkson 37', 0.16 xG, goal0%0.00 xGSix-yard box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals52%0.32 xGCentral box: 3 shots, 0.32 xG, 1 goal44%0.27 xGWide in the box: 3 shots, 0.27 xG, 0 goals5%0.03 xGEdge of the box: 2 shots, 0.03 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

HeartsAberdeen

0.61 10 shots, 0 goalsOpen play0.60 7 shots, 1 goal
0.54 6 shots, 0 goalsSet pieces0.02 1 shot, 0 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
75 min (71%) · Hearts 1.14, Aberdeen 0.42 xG
Aberdeen ahead
31 min (29%) · Hearts 0.02, Aberdeen 0.19 xG

Line-ups

1521536141791637GordonOyegokeKentRowlesKingsleyBaningimeDevlinForrestShanklandSpittalDrammeh34'29'79'79'Hearts 4-2-3-1Neil Critchley122721151862010719MitovDevlinMacDonaldMolloyMcGarryPalaversaNilsenMorrisClarksonMcGrathSoklerOwn goalYellow cardYellow cardYellow cardGoal46'59'58'80'75'Aberdeen 4-2-3-1Jimmy Thelin

Hearts substitutes

  • 29' Halkett for Kingsley · yellow card 42'
  • 34' Forrester for Kent
  • 79' Grant for Forrest
  • 79' Vargas for Drammeh

Aberdeen substitutes

  • 46' Doohan for Mitov
  • 58' Shinnie for Palaversa · yellow card 72'
  • 59' Milne for McGarry
  • 75' Duk for Sokler · yellow card 86'
  • 80' Keskinen for Morris

Players

Hearts

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
GordonGK900.000.0000.0222
OyegokeRB900.000.0700.18105
KentCB340.000.0000.0471
RowlesCB900.000.2100.1497
KingsleyLB290.000.0000.0104
BaningimeDM900.000.0710.0758
DevlinDM900.020.0830.12310
ForrestRW790.120.0100.0432
ShanklandAM900.320.0110.0134
SpittalLW900.130.0500.0163
DrammehST790.350.0010.0203
Halkett DF610.000.3600.2165
ForresterDF560.000.0720.09311
GrantMF110.200.0210.0421
VargasMF110.000.001−0.0210

Aberdeen

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
MitovGK460.000.0000.0340
DevlinRB900.000.0000.01011
MacDonaldCB900.000.0000.0567
Molloy CB900.000.0100.05310
McGarry LB590.000.0000.0455
PalaversaDM580.010.0000.0004
Nilsen DM900.020.0520.1156
MorrisRW8010.040.1310.2791
ClarksonAM9010.420.2810.2363
McGrathLW900.120.2110.0029
SoklerST750.000.0000.0121
DoohanGK440.000.0000.0113
Shinnie MF320.000.0100.0218
MilneDF310.000.0100.0206
Duk FW150.000.0000.0211
KeskinenFW100.000.0410.0212

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Hearts

Kingsley and Devlin: 3 passesDevlin and Baningime: 3 passesGordon and Kent: 4 passesOyegoke and Devlin: 4 passesKingsley and Baningime: 4 passesRowles and Baningime: 5 passesOyegoke and Kent: 7 passesKingsley and Forrest: 7 passesRowles and Kingsley: 13 passesRowles and Kent: 18 passesGordon: 6 completed passesOyegoke: 8 completed passesRowles: 23 completed passesKent: 18 completed passesKingsley: 17 completed passesDevlin: 8 completed passesBaningime: 14 completed passesDrammeh: 1 completed passesSpittal: 5 completed passesForrest: 3 completed passesShankland: 1 completed passes1515231463716179GordonOyegokeRowlesKentKingsleyDevlinBaningimeDrammehSpittalForrestShanklandStarters until 29' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Aberdeen

MacDonald and Palaversa: 4 passesMacDonald and Nilsen: 4 passesMacDonald and Morris: 4 passesMcGarry and Palaversa: 4 passesNilsen and McGrath: 4 passesMorris and Sokler: 4 passesMcGrath and Sokler: 4 passesMitov and Palaversa: 5 passesClarkson and McGrath: 5 passesMitov and MacDonald: 6 passesMolloy and MacDonald: 6 passesMcGarry and Nilsen: 6 passesMorris and Clarkson: 6 passesPalaversa and Nilsen: 7 passesNilsen and Clarkson: 7 passesMolloy and Palaversa: 8 passesMolloy and Nilsen: 10 passesMolloy and McGarry: 12 passesMcGarry and McGrath: 12 passesMitov and Molloy: 20 passesMitov: 25 completed passesDevlin: 5 completed passesMolloy: 30 completed passesMacDonald: 19 completed passesMcGarry: 24 completed passesPalaversa: 16 completed passesNilsen: 23 completed passesMorris: 7 completed passesClarkson: 11 completed passesMcGrath: 14 completed passesSokler: 6 completed passes122127151862010719MitovDevlinMolloyMacDonaldMcGarryPalaversaNilsenMorrisClarksonMcGrathSoklerStarters until 46' · lines join pairs with 4+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Hearts

FromToPasses
HalkettRowles18
OyegokeHalkett17
RowlesHalkett15
ForresterOyegoke15
HalkettOyegoke14

Aberdeen

FromToPasses
MitovMolloy11
MolloyMacDonald9
MolloyMitov9
McGarryMolloy8
NilsenClarkson8

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Hearts

1−3.23−3.417+3.88+1.45+0.170.05−1.86+0.111+4.312+5.76+0.47+2.92−0.67+1.45−1.710+5.44+0.91−2.15+1.57+3.46+3.54+2.41+0.35+4.34+2.22+1.40−0.50−0.80−0.30−1.2FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 14 matches

Aberdeen

4−0.211+4.426+8.18−1.19+3.52−4.38+2.712+7.58+0.99+1.84−2.16+2.45+1.44−1.88+2.23−1.02−0.95+1.93−0.34−0.32−0.10−1.25+4.13+1.14+1.42+1.41+0.71+0.51+0.50−0.5FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 13 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Hearts

0.010.020.010.030.020.030.020.030.040.040.070.010.090.04−0.010.050.030.030.040.020.090.07−0.100.020.120.16LessMore

Aberdeen

0.010.010.010.010.010.010.030.010.030.010.020.010.040.030.07−0.010.040.010.050.030.01−0.02−0.010.160.050.020.23LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.34AttackHearts1.27 → 1.27Aberdeen1.34 → 1.32Defence (lower is better)Hearts1.38 → 1.36Aberdeen1.33 → 1.33

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Hearts
Top six22%18%−4
11th12%13%+1
Bottom11%13%+2

From the forecast before the match (1 December 2024): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

HeartsAberdeen
Expected goals1.461.26
Win41%32%
Expected Points1.501.23
Clean sheet28%23%

Hearts 41%Draw 27%Aberdeen 32%

Most likely score 1–1, 13%. Both sides score 56%.

Aberdeen goalsHearts goals0123456+0123456+7%8%5%2%9%8%3%1%7%9%6%2%3%4%3%1%1%2%1%13%

From the forecast as it stood on 1 December 2024: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowHearts winDrawAberdeen win
Hearts
Top six22%30%18%15%
11th12%10%13%15%
Bottom11%7%13%16%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Hearts

  1. L1–423 NovCeltic (H)xG 0.85–3.87
  2. L0–110 NovRangers (A)xG 0.59–2.17
  3. W2–12 NovSt. Johnstone (A)xG 1.44–1.39
  4. L1–230 OctKilmarnock (H)xG 1.11–1.73
  5. D1–127 OctHibernian (A)xG 1.17–1.97
  6. W4–019 OctSt. Mirren (H)xG 1.73–0.24

Aberdeen

  1. D3–326 NovHibernian (A)xG 1.61–2.21
  2. L1–223 NovSt. Mirren (A)xG 1.38–1.56
  3. W4–19 NovDundee FC (H)xG 1.81–1.89
  4. W2–130 OctRangers (H)xG 2.78–1.92
  5. W1–026 OctDundee United (H)xG 1.41–0.38
  6. D2–219 OctCeltic (A)xG 1.10–3.21

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

HeartsAberdeen
Position12th2nd
Played1413
Won, drawn, lost2–⁠3–⁠910–⁠2–⁠1
Points9 (0.64 per game)32 (2.46 per game)
Expected Points per game1.111.32
Goals15–⁠2428–⁠15
xG per game1.14–⁠1.651.43–⁠1.53
Home: points, xG per game0.83, 1.26–⁠1.453.00, 1.69–⁠1.37
Away: points, xG per game0.50, 1.05–⁠1.791.83, 1.14–⁠1.72
ManagerNeil Critchley (5)Jimmy Thelin (13)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.34AttackHearts1.27, 4thAberdeen1.34, 3rdDefence (lower is better)Hearts1.38, 5thAberdeen1.33, 3rd

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovHearts attack: 1.27Aberdeen attack: 1.341.341.27AberdeenHeartsDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovHearts defence: 1.38Aberdeen defence: 1.331.381.33

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

HeartsAberdeen
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−18%+7%+20%−1%
Counter-attacks−14%+21%−39%−50%
Set pieces+9%+17%−7%+39%
Penalties−100%+78%−52%+44%
Headers−13%+41%+14%+36%
Left side+8%+27%+27%−2%
Centre−19%+7%+6%+15%
Right side−9%+1%−4%−6%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Hearts attacking

Hearts createdAberdeen concededLeft side+8%−6%Centre−19%+15%Right side−9%−2%Open play−18%−1%Counter-attacks−14%−50%Set pieces+9%+39%Headers−13%+36%

Aberdeen attacking

Aberdeen createdHearts concededLeft side+27%+1%Centre+6%+7%Right side−4%+27%Open play+20%+7%Counter-attacks−39%+21%Set pieces−7%+17%Headers+14%+41%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

HeartsAberdeen

1.14xG1.43
1.65xG against1.53
54%Possession54%
12.2Shots13.2
12.6Shots against14.2
3.1Shots on target4.5
1.9Big chances2.3
25.7Touches in the opposition box25.7
452Passes426
78%Pass accuracy78%
6.2Corners5.7
56%Field tilt54%
41.5Final-third entries36.9
12.0Box entries13.8
13.8Passes per defensive action12.4

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Hearts

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level431.031.97
Ahead111.131.15
Behind361.281.40

Aberdeen

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level481.351.39
Ahead351.311.72
Behind72.631.55

xG by period

Hearts

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.220.271–3
16–300.120.182–2
31–450.150.322–4
46–600.120.341–5
61–750.140.203–4
76–900.390.336–6

Aberdeen

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.200.172–0
16–300.180.143–3
31–450.240.383–4
46–600.280.167–0
61–750.220.275–3
76–900.310.408–5

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Hearts

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTGordon 12Clark 2Oyegoke 6Taylor 4Forrester 2Kent 11Halkett 3Rowles 12Kingsley 2Penrice 9Kingsley 2Spittal 1Devlin 7Baningime 4Penrice 1Boateng 10Grant 3Spittal 1Forrest 4Vargas 3Dhanda 3Shankland 3Grant 3Baningime 2Spittal 7Forrest 2Vargas 2Shankland 11Vargas 34-2-3-1 in 5 of 14 starts

Formations: 4-2-3-1 (5), 4-4-2 (3), 4-3-3 (2), 3-4-2-1 (2), 4-4-1-1 (1), 3-5-2 (1)

Aberdeen

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTMitov 13Devlin 13Rubezic 13Molloy 13MacKenzie 13Shinnie 11Palaversa 3Keskinen 1Nilsen 11Keskinen 9Morris 3McGrath 1Clarkson 5Gueye 4Duk 1McGrath 10Duk 3Sokler 7Nisbet 5Miovski 14-2-3-1 in every start

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
6 October 2024Aberdeen3–2HeartsxG 0.69–2.02
27 January 2024Hearts2–0AberdeenxG 1.58–0.93
9 December 2023Aberdeen2–1HeartsxG 1.74–0.33
16 September 2023Hearts2–0AberdeenxG 1.18–0.53
20 May 2023Hearts2–1AberdeenxG 2.55–1.01
18 March 2023Aberdeen3–0HeartsxG 2.03–0.52

11 league meetings since 2020/21: Hearts won 5, Aberdeen won 5, and 1 was a draw. Goals 18–14 and xG 1.49–1.11 per game.

Key players

Hearts

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Shankland141,221130.290.17
Vargas11875210.280.08
Spittal10888220.110.19
Forrest6540100.120.14

Aberdeen

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
McGrath12951460.340.27
Sokler8640210.330.04
Keskinen10683320.120.06
Shinnie111,015130.060.07

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.