Digressive Celts

Matches › 2025/26

Motherwell 4–0 Kilmarnock

Saturday 24 January 2026, 15:00 · Fir Park · Round 23 · Half-time 2–0 · Referee Nick Walsh · Attendance 6,243

Motherwell Just 30', Maswanhise 45+1', Said 55', Fadinger 82'

Kilmarnock Lowery sent off 45'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

MotherwellKilmarnock
Goals40
xG2.720.46
Expected Points2.710.19

Motherwell 87%Draw 10%Kilmarnock 3%

Most likely score 2–0, 16%. Final score 4–0, 10%.

Kilmarnock goalsMotherwell goals0123456+0123456+3%1%10%5%1%8%2%8%2%10%5%1%5%2%2%1%16%16%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

01230153045607590HTLowery (Kilmarnock), second yellow card 45'Koutroumbis on for Sparrow and Bjørgolfsson on for Maswanhise, 60'Stamatelopoulos on for Just, 70'McColm on for Priestman, 83'Ross on for Said, 84'Schjønning-Larsen on for Polworth, 46'McKenzie on for Kiltie and Thomson on for Deas, 61'Anderson on for Dackers, 67'Brannan on for John-Jules, 90'Just 30'Maswanhise 45+1'Said 55'Fadinger 82'Motherwell 2.72Kilmarnock 0.4601230153045607590HTLowery (Kilmarnock), second yellow card 45'Koutroumbis on for Sparrow and Bjørgolfsson on for Maswanhise, 60'Stamatelopoulos on for Just, 70'McColm on for Priestman, 83'Ross on for Said, 84'Schjønning-Larsen on for Polworth, 46'McKenzie on for Kiltie and Thomson on for Deas, 61'Anderson on for Dackers, 67'Brannan on for John-Jules, 90'Just 30'Maswanhise 45+1'Said 55'Fadinger 82'2.720.46MotherwellKilmarnock

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

MotherwellKilmarnock

2.72 +1.28xG0.46 −0.71
3.78 +2.28xG on target0.38 −0.76
22 +10Shots7 −4
11 +6.5Shots on target1 −2.6
4 +1.8Big chances0 −1.8
50 +26Touches in the opposition box11 −9
73% +14Possession27% −13
677 +125Passes244 −75
90% +5Pass accuracy66% −4
78% +18Field tilt22% −16
93 +45Final-third entries27 −4
27 +12.7Box entries6 −3.3
11.6 −2Passes per defensive action20.6 +5
2 −1.6Corners1 −3.4
10 −5Tackles15 −1
4 −3.8Interceptions9 +0.6
17 −7Clearances24 −12
1 −2.0Saves7 +3.6
14 +3Fouls18 +5
1 −1.5Offsides2 +0.2

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Motherwell

Just 52', 0.33 xGSaid 66', 0.18 xGKoutroumbis 84', 0.16 xGSlattery 45+2', 0.15 xGSlattery 77', 0.14 xGMaswanhise 34', 0.11 xGPriestman 82', 0.09 xGMaswanhise 41', 0.06 xGJust 44', 0.05 xGBjørgolfsson 77', 0.04 xGLongelo 27', 0.03 xGLongelo 27', 0.03 xGMaswanhise 43', 0.03 xGFadinger 51', 0.03 xGMcGinn 24', 0.02 xGSlattery 34', 0.02 xGO'Donnell 74', 0.02 xGSlattery 84', 0.02 xGFadinger 82', 0.37 xG, goalJust 29', 0.35 xG, goalSaid 56', 0.33 xG, goalMaswanhise 45+1', 0.13 xG, goal13%0.34 xGSix-yard box: 1 shot, 0.34 xG, 1 goal70%1.90 xGCentral box: 11 shots, 1.90 xG, 3 goals8%0.21 xGWide in the box: 2 shots, 0.21 xG, 0 goals7%0.18 xGEdge of the box: 4 shots, 0.18 xG, 0 goals3%0.09 xGFurther out: 4 shots, 0.09 xG, 0 goals

Kilmarnock

John-Jules 22', 0.14 xGLyons 80', 0.10 xGJohn-Jules 37', 0.06 xGJohn-Jules 1', 0.05 xGDackers 19', 0.05 xGPolworth 22', 0.04 xGSchilte-Brown 72', 0.02 xG0%0.00 xGSix-yard box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals96%0.43 xGCentral box: 6 shots, 0.43 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGWide in the box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals4%0.02 xGEdge of the box: 1 shot, 0.02 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

MotherwellKilmarnock

2.49 19 shots, 4 goalsOpen play0.30 4 shots, 0 goals
0.02 1 shot, 0 goalsCounter-attacks0.00 0 shots, 0 goals
0.20 2 shots, 0 goalsSet pieces0.15 3 shots, 0 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
30 min (33%) · Motherwell 0.43, Kilmarnock 0.28 xG
Motherwell ahead
62 min (67%) · Motherwell 2.29, Kilmarnock 0.18 xG

Line-ups

1372164525129021818WardSparrowO'DonnellMcGinnLongeloPriestmanFadingerSaidJustSlatteryMaswanhiseGoalGoalGoalGoal60'83'84'70'60'Motherwell 4-2-3-1Jens Berthel Askou13525631883111924RoosMayoSchilte-BrownDeasThompsonLoweryLyonsPolworthKiltieDackersJohn-JulesYellow cardSent off, second yellow61'46'61'67'90'Kilmarnock 4-1-2-1-2Neil McCann

Motherwell substitutes

  • 60' Koutroumbis for Sparrow
  • 60' Bjørgolfsson for Maswanhise · 1 assist
  • 70' Stamatelopoulos for Just
  • 83' McColm for Priestman
  • 84' Ross for Said

Kilmarnock substitutes

  • 46' Schjønning-Larsen for Polworth
  • 61' Thomson for Deas
  • 61' McKenzie for Kiltie
  • 67' Anderson for Dackers
  • 90' Brannan for John-Jules

Players

Motherwell

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
WardGK900.000.0000.0212
SparrowRB6010.000.3530.32114
O'DonnellCB900.020.0200.12107
McGinnCB900.020.0410.19133
LongeloLB9010.060.3910.44204
PriestmanDM830.090.1220.27142
FadingerDM9010.410.0710.1854
SaidRW8410.520.2310.2481
JustAM7010.730.1010.0552
SlatteryLW9010.330.5850.1373
MaswanhiseST6010.340.010−0.0600
KoutroumbisDF300.160.0200.0330
BjørgolfssonFW3010.040.0720.0010
StamatelopoulosFW200.000.1510.0200
McColmMF70.000.0000.0111
RossFW60.000.0800.0720

Kilmarnock

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
RoosGK900.000.0100.0440
MayoRB900.000.0100.0428
Schilte-BrownCB900.020.0000.0434
DeasCB610.000.0500.12710
ThompsonLB900.000.0710.0455
Lowery DM450.000.0710.0811
LyonsCM900.100.0300.0836
PolworthCM460.040.1120.0613
KiltieAM610.000.0000.0211
DackersST670.050.0100.0043
John-JulesST900.250.0200.0121
Schjønning-LarsenDF440.000.0000.0103
ThomsonMF290.000.0000.0003
McKenzieMF290.000.0110.0302
AndersonFW230.000.000−0.0100
BrannanDF00.000.0000.0000

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Motherwell

Sparrow and Slattery: 8 passesO'Donnell and Just: 8 passesMcGinn and Slattery: 8 passesLongelo and Priestman: 8 passesFadinger and Just: 8 passesMcGinn and Just: 9 passesPriestman and Fadinger: 9 passesSparrow and Fadinger: 10 passesFadinger and Slattery: 10 passesMcGinn and Fadinger: 11 passesO'Donnell and Fadinger: 12 passesLongelo and Slattery: 12 passesO'Donnell and Priestman: 13 passesPriestman and Slattery: 13 passesJust and Slattery: 13 passesLongelo and Fadinger: 14 passesWard and O'Donnell: 15 passesWard and McGinn: 15 passesMcGinn and Priestman: 15 passesSparrow and Just: 18 passesO'Donnell and McGinn: 20 passesMcGinn and Longelo: 20 passesSparrow and Priestman: 23 passesSparrow and O'Donnell: 27 passesWard: 25 completed passesSparrow: 56 completed passesO'Donnell: 57 completed passesMcGinn: 58 completed passesLongelo: 36 completed passesPriestman: 54 completed passesFadinger: 44 completed passesSaid: 18 completed passesJust: 35 completed passesSlattery: 37 completed passesMaswanhise: 12 completed passes1372164525129021818WardSparrowO'DonnellMcGinnLongeloPriestmanFadingerSaidJustSlatteryMaswanhiseStarters until 60' · lines join pairs with 8+ passes

Kilmarnock

Deas and Polworth: 3 passesDeas and John-Jules: 3 passesPolworth and John-Jules: 3 passesLyons and John-Jules: 3 passesJohn-Jules and Dackers: 3 passesRoos and Dackers: 4 passesThompson and Lyons: 4 passesLowery and Dackers: 4 passesKiltie and John-Jules: 4 passesKiltie and Dackers: 4 passesMayo and Dackers: 5 passesThompson and Polworth: 5 passesThompson and John-Jules: 5 passesMayo and Schilte-Brown: 6 passesDeas and Thompson: 7 passesRoos and Schilte-Brown: 12 passesRoos: 15 completed passesMayo: 10 completed passesSchilte-Brown: 14 completed passesDeas: 9 completed passesThompson: 16 completed passesLowery: 10 completed passesPolworth: 12 completed passesLyons: 8 completed passesKiltie: 4 completed passesJohn-Jules: 9 completed passesDackers: 10 completed passes13525631831811249RoosMayoSchilte-BrownDeasThompsonLoweryPolworthLyonsKiltieJohn-JulesDackersStarters until 45' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Motherwell

FromToPasses
McGinnLongelo20
FadingerLongelo17
McGinnFadinger16
LongeloMcGinn15
FadingerPriestman15

Kilmarnock

FromToPasses
RoosSchilte-Brown8
RoosDackers8
Schilte-BrownMayo6
RoosJohn-Jules6
ThompsonJohn-Jules4

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Motherwell

3−0.74−2.512−1.37+1.02−2.37+1.07−0.54−3.39+3.08+2.02−2.44+0.33−1.52−3.30−4.33−1.62−0.22−0.71−3.00−2.93+1.12+1.04+2.67+5.210.00−0.62+1.40−0.30−0.62−5.8FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 22 matches

Kilmarnock

4−1.611+2.317−0.15−2.06+1.65−2.47−0.17−0.18−0.46+0.25−0.52−3.13−0.53−2.23−0.92−1.81−1.82−1.16+2.32−0.720.01−0.62+0.12+0.11+0.13+2.50−0.90−0.51+0.21−4.2FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 22 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Motherwell

0.010.010.020.020.010.040.050.040.030.090.040.080.120.170.090.090.110.14−0.040.020.070.060.110.220.200.25LessMore

Kilmarnock

0.010.020.040.010.030.010.010.030.020.02−0.010.010.060.070.01−0.030.030.070.13LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.0League average 1.31AttackMotherwell1.31 → 1.37Kilmarnock1.07 → 1.05Defence (lower is better)Motherwell1.18 → 1.16Kilmarnock1.57 → 1.63

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Motherwell
Top six>99%>99%0
Kilmarnock
11th50%52%+2
Bottom23%27%+4
Livingston
11th21%24%+3
Bottom73%69%−4
St. Mirren
11th11%10%−1
Bottom2%2%0

From the forecast before the match (24 January 2026): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

MotherwellKilmarnock
Expected goals1.850.87
Win60%17%
Expected Points2.040.73
Clean sheet42%16%

Motherwell 60%Draw 23%Kilmarnock 17%

Most likely score 1–0, 12%. Both sides score 49%.

Kilmarnock goalsMotherwell goals0123456+0123456+7%5%2%5%1%4%1%7%6%3%3%3%1%1%1%12%11%11%10%

From the forecast as it stood on 24 January 2026: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowMotherwell winDrawKilmarnock win
Motherwell
Top six>99%>99%99%99%
Kilmarnock
11th50%52%50%48%
Bottom23%27%21%12%
Livingston
11th21%24%20%14%
Bottom73%69%75%82%
St. Mirren
11th11%10%12%16%
Bottom2%2%2%3%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Motherwell

  1. D1–110 JanHibernian (A)xG 1.03–1.31
  2. W2–03 JanSt. Mirren (H)xG 1.88–0.30
  3. W2–030 DecCeltic (H)xG 1.40–0.59
  4. L0–127 DecRangers (A)xG 1.07–4.14
  5. W1–020 DecDundee FC (H)xG 1.23–0.23
  6. D0–013 DecDundee United (A)xG 0.68–0.49

Kilmarnock

  1. D1–110 JanLivingston (A)xG 1.69–1.30
  2. L1–33 JanHibernian (H)xG 0.44–2.78
  3. L1–230 DecDundee FC (A)xG 1.27–2.23
  4. D0–027 DecSt. Mirren (A)xG 0.75–1.36
  5. L0–120 DecFalkirk (H)xG 1.19–1.46
  6. L1–214 DecAberdeen (A)xG 1.02–3.76

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

MotherwellKilmarnock
Position4th11th
Played2222
Won, drawn, lost9–⁠10–⁠32–⁠8–⁠12
Points37 (1.68 per game)14 (0.64 per game)
Expected Points per game1.580.98
Goals31–⁠1720–⁠39
xG per game1.44–⁠1.191.17–⁠1.85
Home: points, xG per game2.18, 1.61–⁠0.710.55, 1.25–⁠1.62
Away: points, xG per game1.18, 1.28–⁠1.680.73, 1.09–⁠2.08
ManagerJens Berthel Askou (22)Neil McCann (0)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.0League average 1.31AttackMotherwell1.31, 5thKilmarnock1.07, 10thDefence (lower is better)Motherwell1.18, 5thKilmarnock1.57, 11th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovDecJanMotherwell attack: 1.31Kilmarnock attack: 1.071.311.07KilmarnockMotherwellDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovDecJanMotherwell defence: 1.18Kilmarnock defence: 1.571.571.18

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

MotherwellKilmarnock
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play+15%−10%−27%+23%
Counter-attacks−9%+1%+23%+6%
Set pieces−42%−19%+13%+32%
Penalties+80%−40%−70%+140%
Headers−21%−31%−9%+20%
Left side−1%−16%−50%+27%
Centre−28%−5%+14%+35%
Right side+48%−21%−23%−6%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Motherwell attacking

Motherwell createdKilmarnock concededLeft side−1%−6%Centre−28%+35%Right side+48%+27%Open play+15%+23%Counter-attacks−9%+6%Set pieces−42%+32%Headers−21%+20%

Kilmarnock attacking

Kilmarnock createdMotherwell concededLeft side−50%−21%Centre+14%−5%Right side−23%−16%Open play−27%−10%Counter-attacks+23%+1%Set pieces+13%−19%Headers−9%−31%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

MotherwellKilmarnock

1.44xG1.17
1.19xG against1.85
59%Possession40%
12.3Shots10.5
11.1Shots against14.5
4.5Shots on target3.6
2.2Big chances1.8
24.0Touches in the opposition box19.8
552Passes319
85%Pass accuracy70%
3.6Corners4.4
60%Field tilt38%
47.9Final-third entries30.9
14.3Box entries9.3
13.1Passes per defensive action16.0

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Motherwell

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level561.111.13
Ahead261.771.37
Behind82.651.08

Kilmarnock

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level411.171.72
Ahead141.012.71
Behind351.231.66

xG by period

Motherwell

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.060.091–1
16–300.230.207–3
31–450.230.185–0
46–600.330.177–3
61–750.290.284–6
76–900.310.287–4

Kilmarnock

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.080.260–4
16–300.170.244–7
31–450.320.287–4
46–600.150.304–8
61–750.180.362–8
76–900.280.413–8

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Motherwell

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTWard 22Koutroumbis 10O'Donnell 9Sparrow 2McGinn 18Gordon 8O'Donnell 2Welsh 15Longelo 17Koutroumbis 4Charles-Cook 1Fadinger 20Priestman 4Just 3Watt 16Maswanhise 13Just 3Said 2Just 7Slattery 6Said 3Said 7Slattery 5Charles-Cook 5Stamatelopoulos 9Hendry 7Maswanhise 54-2-3-1 in 13 of 22 starts

Formations: 4-2-3-1 (13), 4-1-3-2 (2), 4-4-2 (2), 4-3-3 (2), 4-4-1-1 (1), 4-3-2-1 (1), 3-1-4-2 (1)

Kilmarnock

GKRWBCBCBCBLWBCMCMCMSTSTOluwayemi 12Stryjek 7Beach 3Brown 13Brannan 4Brandon 4Stanger 11Schilte-B… 8Schilte-BrownMayo 19Lyons 2Tiffoney 1Deas 19Williams 3Thompson 19Brannan 3Watson 18McKenzie 3Anderson 2Lyons 13Thomson 2Polworth 12Kiltie 7Lowery 7Dackers 10Tiffoney 4Daniels 4Anderson 14John-Jules 7Kiltie 45-3-2 in 6 of 22 starts

Formations: 5-3-2 (6), 3-5-2 (4), 4-1-4-1 (3), 3-4-3 (3), 3-1-4-2 (2), 4-4-2 (1), 4-3-1-2 (1), 5-4-1 (1), 3-4-1-2 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
22 November 2025Kilmarnock1–3MotherwellxG 1.73–2.24
30 August 2025Motherwell2–2KilmarnockxG 1.76–1.20
14 May 2025Motherwell3–0KilmarnockxG 2.57–0.53
5 April 2025Kilmarnock2–0MotherwellxG 1.22–0.18
8 January 2025Kilmarnock0–0MotherwellxG 1.72–0.39
20 December 2024Motherwell1–1KilmarnockxG 0.76–1.03

17 league meetings since 2020/21: Motherwell won 6, Kilmarnock won 5, and 6 were drawn. Goals 22–20 and xG 1.20–1.13 per game.

Key players

Motherwell

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Stamatelopoulos9848620.910.06
Maswanhise191,5191020.350.09
Slattery121,123220.180.23
Just161,414350.220.20

Kilmarnock

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Dackers111,067200.350.11
John-Jules7711300.330.06
Anderson161,352310.340.04
Tiffoney6566110.180.12

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.