Matches › 2025/26

Falkirk 2–3 Dundee United

Saturday 14 February 2026, 15:00 · Falkirk Stadium · Round 27 · Half-time 1–1 · Referee Ryan Lee · Attendance 7,696

Falkirk Broggio 17', Lissah 53' · Henderson sent off 69'

Dundee United Graham 24', Sibbald 55', Eskesen 83'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

Measure	Falkirk	Dundee United
Goals	2	3
xG	0.94	1.09
Expected Points	1.22	1.45

Falkirk 29%Draw 34%Dundee United 37%

Most likely score 1–1, 18%. Final score 2–3, 1%.

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

FalkirkDundee United

0.94 −0.35xG1.09 −0.15

1.72 +0.55xG on target2.09 +0.81

10 −2Shots14 +1

4 +0.1Shots on target5 +0.7

2 0.0Big chances1 −1.0

14 −6Touches in the opposition box18 −6

59% +9Possession41% 0

418 +17Passes290 −20

79% +3Pass accuracy70% +1

60% +13Field tilt40% +5

50 +15Final-third entries32 +1

7 −4Box entries6 −5

17.8 +5Passes per defensive action11.9 −2

4 −0.7Corners5 +0.5

14 −5Tackles11 −6

7 −2.0Interceptions5 −4.8

43 +13Clearances43 +7

2 −1.2Saves2 −1.5

8 −4Fouls19 +6

2 −0.1Offsides1 −0.9

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Zones Shots

Falkirk

Dundee United

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

FalkirkDundee United

0.89 8 shots, 2 goalsOpen play0.57 9 shots, 2 goals

0.05 2 shots, 0 goalsSet pieces0.52 5 shots, 1 goal

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

0–01–01–12–22–3

Level: 75 min (78%) · Falkirk 0.90, Dundee United 0.78 xG
Falkirk ahead: 9 min (9%) · Falkirk 0.00, Dundee United 0.28 xG
Dundee United ahead: 12 min (12%) · Falkirk 0.03, Dundee United 0.03 xG

Line-ups

Falkirk substitutes

64' Cartwright for Tait
64' Wilson for Marsh
71' Donaldson for Broggio
81' Graham for Stewart
81' Ross for Miller

Dundee United substitutes

49' Watters for Trapanovski
65' Sevelj for Keresztes
77' Eskesen for Farrugia · goal 83'
77' Dolcek for Stephenson · yellow card 89', 1 assist

Players

Falkirk

Player	Pos	Min	G	A	xG	xA	KP	xT	Prog	Def
Bain	GK	90			0.00	0.00	0	0.04	4	2
Lissah	RB	90	1		0.53	0.02	0	0.14	6	11
Neilson	CB	90			0.00	0.00	0	0.04	3	14
Henderson	CB	69			0.00	0.01	0	0.03	4	12
McCann	LB	90		1	0.00	0.12	2	0.14	7	8
Spencer	DM	90			0.00	0.03	0	0.09	8	7
Tait	DM	64			0.00	0.28	2	0.27	10	3
Miller	RW	81			0.10	0.18	2	0.07	5	0
Marsh	AM	64			0.15	0.03	0	0.05	4	1
Broggio	LW	71	1		0.11	0.01	1	0.00	3	3
Stewart	ST	81		1	0.02	0.13	1	−0.02	1	1
Cartwright	MF	26			0.00	0.01	0	0.03	4	4
Wilson	FW	26			0.00	0.01	1	0.04	3	0
Donaldson	DF	19			0.00	0.00	0	0.03	2	3
Graham	FW	9			0.03	0.01	0	0.01	1	0
Ross	FW	9			0.00	0.00	0	0.00	0	0

Dundee United

Player	Pos	Min	G	A	xG	xA	KP	xT	Prog	Def
Maynard-Brewer	GK	90			0.00	0.00	0	0.00	0	1
Iovu	CB	90			0.00	0.01	0	0.04	4	9
Graham	CB	90	1		0.48	0.00	0	0.02	1	17
Keresztes	CB	65			0.00	0.01	0	0.05	4	13
Strain	RWB	90			0.00	0.20	1	0.24	5	6
Stephenson	CM	77			0.00	0.00	0	0.01	2	3
Sibbald	CM	90	1		0.11	0.04	4	0.09	8	5
Ferry	LWB	90			0.00	0.10	1	0.15	10	3
Farrugia	RW	77			0.00	0.01	0	0.02	4	0
Sapsford	ST	90		1	0.08	0.01	2	0.01	3	0
Trapanovski	LW	49			0.13	0.08	1	0.01	2	0
Watters	FW	41			0.00	0.00	0	0.00	1	1
Sevelj	MF	25			0.00	0.01	0	0.00	0	5
Eskesen	MF	13	1		0.12	0.00	0	0.00	1	0
Dolcek	FW	13		1	0.18	0.00	1	−0.01	1	0

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Falkirk

Dundee United

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Falkirk

From	To	Passes
Neilson	Henderson	14
Henderson	McCann	13
Lissah	Neilson	11
Henderson	Bain	11
Bain	Neilson	9

Dundee United

From	To	Passes
Ferry	Trapanovski	8
Iovu	Graham	8
Sibbald	Ferry	6
Strain	Farrugia	6
Graham	Keresztes	5

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Falkirk

Against its average of 26 matches

Dundee United

Against its average of 24 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Falkirk

Dundee United

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

Chance	Before	With this result	Change
Falkirk
Top six	98%	94%	−4
Dundee United
Top six	1%	2%	+1
11th	9%	3%	−6
Kilmarnock
11th	55%	58%	+3
Bottom	4%	3%	−1

From the forecast before the match (14 February 2026): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

Measure	Falkirk	Dundee United
Expected goals	1.79	0.87
Win	58%	18%
Expected Points	1.99	0.77
Clean sheet	42%	17%

Falkirk 58%Draw 24%Dundee United 18%

Most likely score 1–0, 12%. Both sides score 49%.

From the forecast as it stood on 14 February 2026: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

Chance	Now	Falkirk win	Draw	Dundee United win
Falkirk
Top six	98%	99%	98%	94%
Dundee United
Top six	1%	<1%	<1%	2%
11th	9%	11%	7%	3%
Kilmarnock
11th	55%	53%	56%	58%
Bottom	4%	4%	4%	3%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Falkirk

Dundee United

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

Measure	Falkirk	Dundee United
Position	6th	8th
Played	26	24
Won, drawn, lost	11–⁠6–⁠9	5–⁠10–⁠9
Points	39 (1.50 per game)	25 (1.04 per game)
Expected Points per game	1.42	1.03
Goals	30–⁠32	30–⁠40
xG per game	1.29–⁠1.27	1.24–⁠1.88
Home: points, xG per game	1.54, 1.52–⁠1.08	1.08, 1.26–⁠2.18
Away: points, xG per game	1.46, 1.05–⁠1.46	1.00, 1.22–⁠1.58
Manager	John McGlynn (26)	Jim Goodwin (74)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

This season

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

Chances	Falkirk		Dundee United
Chances	Created	Conceded	Created	Conceded
Open play	+1%	−15%	−34%	+45%
Counter-attacks	−3%	+18%	+37%	−7%
Set pieces	−14%	−24%	+17%	+19%
Penalties	−74%	+30%	−16%	+41%
Headers	−28%	+7%	−18%	+26%
Left side	−42%	−21%	+10%	+41%
Centre	−3%	−16%	−28%	+37%
Right side	+35%	−2%	+1%	+13%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Falkirk attacking

Falkirk createdDundee United concededLeft side−42%+13%Centre−3%+37%Right side+35%+41%Open play+1%+45%Counter-attacks−3%−7%Set pieces−14%+19%Headers−28%+26%

Dundee United attacking

Dundee United createdFalkirk concededLeft side+10%−2%Centre−28%−16%Right side+1%−21%Open play−34%−15%Counter-attacks+37%+18%Set pieces+17%−24%Headers−18%+7%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

FalkirkDundee United

1.29xG1.24

1.27xG against1.88

50%Possession41%

12.5Shots12.7

12.1Shots against16.9

3.9Shots on target4.3

2.0Big chances2.0

20.3Touches in the opposition box24.1

401Passes310

77%Pass accuracy69%

4.7Corners4.5

47%Field tilt36%

34.9Final-third entries30.9

10.6Box entries11.4

12.8Passes per defensive action14.1

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Falkirk

State	Minutes per game	xG per 90	xG against per 90
Level	43	1.28	1.48
Ahead	22	1.46	0.77
Behind	25	1.15	1.34

Dundee United

State	Minutes per game	xG per 90	xG against per 90
Level	45	1.28	1.64
Ahead	17	1.16	2.54
Behind	28	1.22	1.88

xG by period

Falkirk

Minutes	xG per game	xG against	Goals
1–15	0.21	0.15	3–1
16–30	0.27	0.25	5–6
31–45	0.23	0.32	3–11
46–60	0.20	0.17	7–4
61–75	0.20	0.19	7–5
76–90	0.18	0.19	5–5

Dundee United

Minutes	xG per game	xG against	Goals
1–15	0.17	0.22	3–3
16–30	0.13	0.29	3–11
31–45	0.19	0.37	7–7
46–60	0.26	0.28	4–5
61–75	0.25	0.33	7–5
76–90	0.23	0.39	6–9

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Falkirk

Formations: 4-2-3-1 (25), 4-4-1-1 (1)

Dundee United

Formations: 3-4-3 (13), 3-5-2 (4), 3-4-2-1 (3), 4-3-3 (2), 5-3-2 (1), 4-2-3-1 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

Date	Home	Score	Away	xG
22 November 2025	Dundee United	0–3	Falkirk	xG 0.74–1.78
3 August 2025	Falkirk	2–2	Dundee United	xG 2.02–1.19

2 league meetings since 2020/21: Falkirk won 1, Dundee United won 0, and 1 was a draw. Goals 5–2 and xG 1.90–0.96 per game.

Key players

Falkirk

Player	Starts	Min	G	A	xG per 90	xA per 90
Stewart	7	560	3	1	0.57	0.12
MacIver	9	661	3	1	0.41	0.12
Graham	7	730	4	0	0.45	0.07
Miller	24	1,936	4	6	0.25	0.24

Dundee United

Player	Starts	Min	G	A	xG per 90	xA per 90
Watters	7	533	2	1	0.55	0.10
Sapsford	23	1,907	6	1	0.34	0.08
Dolcek	10	870	5	1	0.27	0.13
Fatah	15	1,285	4	3	0.19	0.13

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.