Wednesday 24 May 2023, 19:45 · Tannadice Park · Round 37 · Half-time 0–2 · Referee Alan James Muir · Attendance 10,406
Kilmarnock Vassell 14', 44', Cameron 83'
Post-match
Result and Expected Points
Measure
Dundee United
Kilmarnock
Goals
0
3
xG
0.99
1.90
Expected Points
0.62
2.14
Dundee United 12%Draw 24%Kilmarnock 63%
Most likely score 1–2, 18%. Final score 0–3, 6%.
Own goals have no xG.
xG race
Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.
Match stats
Dundee UnitedKilmarnock
0.99 +0.02xG1.90 +0.81
0.33 −0.59xG on target2.17 +1.36
10 −1Shots11 −1
2 −1.6Shots on target4 +0.9
1 −0.1Big chances2 +0.5
59% +13Possession41% −3
424 +72Passes297 −25
69% 0Pass accuracy59% −5
51% +7Field tilt49% +5
37 +2Final-third entries21 −12
13 +3.6Box entries10 +0.8
7.1 −9Passes per defensive action14.4 0
3 −1.8Corners5 +0.8
22 +6Tackles18 +1
4 −4.9Interceptions9 −2.5
17 −9Clearances27 +7
1 −2.4Saves2 −1.2
15 +5Fouls16 +4
3 +1.7Offsides1 −0.8
The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.
Chance locations
Dundee United
Kilmarnock
Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.
xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.
Game state
14'44'83'
0–00–10–20–3
0'HTFT
Level
14 min (15%) · Dundee United 0.00, Kilmarnock 0.23 xG
Kilmarnock ahead
80 min (85%) · Dundee United 0.99, Kilmarnock 1.66 xG
Line-ups
Dundee United substitutes
46'Levitt for Harkes
46'Middleton for Niskanen
65'Fotheringham for McMann
65'MacLeod for Pawlett
77'Thomson for Sibbald
Kilmarnock substitutes
66'Cameron for Vassell · goal 83'
71'Alston for Armstrong
71'Sanders for Polworth
86'Robinson for Doidge
87'McInroy for Lyons
Players
Dundee United
Player
Pos
Min
G
A
xG
xA
KP
xT
Prog
Def
Newman
GK
90
0.00
0.01
0
0.03
2
1
Ayina
CB
90
0.00
0.02
0
0.08
6
4
Mulgrew
CB
90
0.00
0.00
0
0.04
3
8
Graham
CB
90
0.00
0.10
1
0.23
12
7
Niskanen
RWB
46
0.02
0.06
0
0.11
5
3
Sibbald
CM
77
0.00
0.10
1
0.05
1
1
Harkes
CM
46
0.00
0.00
0
0.01
1
5
McGrath
CM
90
0.00
0.18
3
0.27
4
2
McMann
LWB
65
0.00
0.10
1
0.11
4
6
Fletcher
ST
90
0.31
0.01
0
0.02
0
2
Pawlett
ST
65
0.40
0.01
0
0.01
0
1
Levitt
MF
44
0.08
0.01
0
0.01
3
2
Middleton
MF
44
0.00
0.00
0
0.02
3
0
Fotheringham
MF
25
0.00
0.03
1
0.08
1
1
MacLeod
FW
25
0.05
0.01
0
−0.01
0
0
Thomson
MF
13
0.12
0.00
0
−0.01
0
1
Kilmarnock
Player
Pos
Min
G
A
xG
xA
KP
xT
Prog
Def
Walker
GK
90
0.00
0.00
0
0.01
1
2
Mayo
CB
90
0.00
0.04
1
0.10
2
3
Taylor
CB
90
0.12
0.00
0
0.01
1
7
Stokes
CB
90
0.00
0.02
0
0.03
1
6
Armstrong
RWB
71
0.06
0.06
1
0.03
4
4
Lyons
CM
87
0.00
0.06
0
0.00
0
8
Polworth
CM
71
0.00
0.02
1
0.02
2
5
Chambers
CM
90
0.08
0.01
0
0.06
5
6
McKenzie
LWB
90
1
0.02
0.36
3
0.22
5
3
Doidge
ST
86
1
0.05
0.35
1
0.23
2
6
Vassell
ST
66
2
0.92
0.01
0
−0.04
1
2
Cameron
FW
24
1
0.64
0.00
0
0.00
0
0
Alston
MF
19
0.00
0.00
0
0.00
1
2
Sanders
DF
19
0.00
0.00
0
0.01
1
3
Robinson
FW
4
0.00
0.00
0
0.02
1
0
McInroy
MF
3
0.00
0.01
0
0.02
1
0
Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.
Pass networks
Dundee United
Kilmarnock
Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.
Passing combinations
Dundee United
From
To
Passes
Ayina
Levitt
16
Levitt
Ayina
13
Mulgrew
Ayina
10
Graham
McGrath
9
Mulgrew
Graham
8
Kilmarnock
From
To
Passes
Mayo
Armstrong
7
Chambers
Polworth
6
Lyons
Mayo
5
Armstrong
Polworth
5
Polworth
Lyons
5
The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.
Defensive actions
Dundee United
Against its average of 36 matches
Kilmarnock
Against its average of 36 matches
Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.
Threat
Dundee United
Kilmarnock
Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.
Ratings
The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.
League probabilities
Chance
Before
With this result
Change
Dundee United
11th
21%
2%
−19
Bottom
73%
98%
+25
Kilmarnock
11th
24%
17%
−7
Bottom
14%
–
−14
Ross County
11th
55%
80%
+25
Bottom
13%
2%
−11
From the forecast before the match (24 May 2023): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.
Pre-match
As things stood before kick-off.
Forecast
Measure
Dundee United
Kilmarnock
Expected goals
1.27
1.13
Win
39%
32%
Expected Points
1.46
1.25
Clean sheet
32%
28%
Dundee United 39%Draw 29%Kilmarnock 32%
Most likely score 1–1, 14%. Both sides score 49%.
From the forecast as it stood on 24 May 2023: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.
League probabilities by result
Chance
Now
Dundee United win
Draw
Kilmarnock win
Dundee United
11th
21%
45%
11%
2%
Bottom
73%
39%
89%
98%
Kilmarnock
11th
24%
24%
32%
17%
Bottom
14%
33%
4%
–
Ross County
11th
55%
31%
57%
80%
Bottom
13%
28%
6%
2%
Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.
The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.
Season to date
Measure
Dundee United
Kilmarnock
Position
12th
10th
Played
36
36
Won, drawn, lost
8–7–21
9–7–20
Points
31 (0.86 per game)
34 (0.94 per game)
Expected Points per game
1.00
1.20
Goals
38–64
31–61
xG per game
0.97–1.62
1.09–1.40
Home: points, xG per game
1.11, 1.04–1.61
1.61, 1.41–1.13
Away: points, xG per game
0.61, 0.90–1.63
0.28, 0.77–1.68
Manager
Jim Goodwin (10)
Derek McInnes (36)
League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.
Ratings
This season
The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.
Strengths and weaknesses
Chances
Dundee United
Kilmarnock
Created
Conceded
Created
Conceded
Open play
−29%
+30%
−24%
+5%
Counter-attacks
−23%
+77%
−53%
+5%
Set pieces
−43%
+14%
+26%
+18%
Penalties
+14%
−29%
−57%
−14%
Headers
−41%
+31%
+11%
−22%
Left side
−19%
+50%
average
−4%
Centre
−33%
+25%
−19%
+14%
Right side
−43%
+11%
−15%
+12%
xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.
Matchups
Dundee United attacking
Dundee United createdKilmarnock concededBelow averageAboveBelow averageAboveLeft side−19%+12%Centre−33%+14%Right side−43%−4%Open play−29%+5%Counter-attacks−23%+5%Set pieces−43%+18%Headers−41%−22%
Kilmarnock attacking
Kilmarnock createdDundee United concededBelow averageAboveBelow averageAboveLeft sideaverage+11%Centre−19%+25%Right side−15%+50%Open play−24%+30%Counter-attacks−53%+77%Set pieces+26%+14%Headers+11%+31%
Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.
Season averages
Dundee UnitedKilmarnock
0.97xG1.09
1.62xG against1.40
46%Possession44%
10.7Shots11.6
15.5Shots against12.8
3.6Shots on target3.1
1.1Big chances1.5
17.3Touches in the opposition box19.6
352Passes322
69%Pass accuracy65%
4.8Corners4.2
45%Field tilt44%
35.5Final-third entries33.5
9.4Box entries9.2
15.7Passes per defensive action14.5
Per league match this season before kick-off.
Game state this season
Dundee United
State
Minutes per game
xG per 90
xG against per 90
Level
34
0.87
1.64
Ahead
22
0.76
1.22
Behind
34
1.21
1.85
Kilmarnock
State
Minutes per game
xG per 90
xG against per 90
Level
29
1.18
1.07
Ahead
19
1.23
1.09
Behind
42
0.96
1.78
xG by period
Dundee United
Minutes
xG per game
xG against
Goals
1–15
0.15
0.24
8–10
16–30
0.14
0.18
7–3
31–45
0.15
0.26
3–14
46–60
0.11
0.34
4–15
61–75
0.20
0.25
8–7
76–90
0.21
0.35
8–15
Kilmarnock
Minutes
xG per game
xG against
Goals
1–15
0.11
0.20
3–15
16–30
0.17
0.26
5–14
31–45
0.24
0.21
8–7
46–60
0.27
0.21
7–7
61–75
0.14
0.18
5–8
76–90
0.15
0.35
3–10
Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.
This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.
Digressive Celts