Digressive Celts

Matches › 2025/26

Celtic 4–0 Kilmarnock

Sunday 9 November 2025, 16:00 · Celtic Park · Round 12 · Half-time 1–0 · Referee Don Robertson · Attendance 58,088

Celtic Kenny 10', Tierney 51', Maeda 85', Engels 90+3' (pen)

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

CelticKilmarnock
Goals40
xG2.850.38
Non-penalty xG2.070.38
Expected Points2.830.11

Celtic 92%Draw 7%Kilmarnock 1%

Most likely score 3–0, 19%. Final score 4–0, 12%.

Kilmarnock goalsCeltic goals0123456+0123456+1%9%4%8%1%8%1%12%5%5%2%2%1%18%19%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

01230153045607590HTTierney on for Saracchi, 22'Nygren on for McCowan and Ralston on for Simpson-Pusey, 64'Yang on for Tounekti and Engels on for Kenny, 78'John-Jules on for Lowery, Dackers on for Anderson, and Kiltie on for Tiffoney, 66'Watkins on for Lyons and Polworth on for Watson, 79'Kenny 10'Tierney 51'Maeda 85'Engels 90+3' (pen)Celtic 2.85Kilmarnock 0.3801230153045607590HTTierney on for Saracchi, 22'Nygren on for McCowan and Ralston on for Simpson-Pusey, 64'Yang on for Tounekti and Engels on for Kenny, 78'John-Jules on for Lowery, Dackers on for Anderson, and Kiltie on for Tiffoney, 66'Watkins on for Lyons and Polworth on for Watson, 79'Kenny 10'Tierney 51'Maeda 85'Engels 90+3' (pen)2.850.38CelticKilmarnock

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

CelticKilmarnock

2.85 +0.66xG0.38 −0.78
2.07Non-penalty xG0.38
2.68 +0.41xG on target0.21 −1.02
21 +4Shots3 −7
7 +1.2Shots on target1 −2.9
4 −0.1Big chances1 −0.9
41 +4Touches in the opposition box12 −6
75% +4Possession25% −14
706 +53Passes231 −82
90% +2Pass accuracy64% −7
85% +6Field tilt15% −21
89 +17Final-third entries12 −16
26 +3.9Box entries5 −3.6
9.7 +1.2Passes per defensive action27.7 +12.6
8 0.0Corners7 +2.3
8 −6Tackles21 +4
4 −3.7Interceptions14 +4.7
28 0Clearances41 +6
1 −0.9Saves4 +1.0
14 +1Fouls4 −9
0 −1.7Offsides3 +1.5

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Celtic

Kenny 27', 0.35 xGMaeda 4', 0.13 xGNygren 65', 0.13 xGKenny 75', 0.12 xGMaeda 87', 0.12 xGMaeda 46', 0.11 xGMaeda 45+2', 0.10 xGYang 88', 0.10 xGKenny 38', 0.09 xGMcCowan 35', 0.07 xGKenny 9', 0.04 xGTounekti 4', 0.03 xGMcGregor 42', 0.03 xGKenny 43', 0.03 xGTounekti 27', 0.02 xGMcCowan 45', 0.02 xGKenny 27', 0.01 xGKenny 10', 0.38 xG, goalMaeda 85', 0.15 xG, goalTierney 51', 0.04 xG, goal36%0.74 xGSix-yard box: 2 shots, 0.74 xG, 1 goal31%0.64 xGCentral box: 7 shots, 0.64 xG, 0 goals15%0.32 xGWide in the box: 4 shots, 0.32 xG, 1 goal18%0.37 xGEdge of the box: 7 shots, 0.37 xG, 1 goal0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Kilmarnock

Dackers 74', 0.20 xGAnderson 29', 0.12 xGTiffoney 36', 0.07 xG31%0.12 xGSix-yard box: 1 shot, 0.12 xG, 0 goals51%0.20 xGCentral box: 1 shot, 0.20 xG, 0 goals18%0.07 xGWide in the box: 1 shot, 0.07 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGEdge of the box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

CelticKilmarnock

1.95 18 shots, 3 goalsOpen play0.00 0 shots, 0 goals
0.00 0 shots, 0 goalsCounter-attacks0.26 2 shots, 0 goals
0.12 2 shots, 0 goalsSet pieces0.12 1 shot, 0 goals
0.79 1 shot, 1 goalPenalties0.00 0 shots, 0 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
10 min (10%) · Celtic 0.59, Kilmarnock 0.00 xG
Celtic ahead
86 min (90%) · Celtic 2.26, Kilmarnock 0.38 xG

Line-ups

146536144241382423SchmeichelSimpson-PuseyTrustyScalesSaracchiMcCowanMcGregorHatateMaedaKennyTounektiYellow cardGoalYellow cardGoal64'22'64'78'78'Celtic 4-3-3Martin O'Neill301464815121831719BeachStangerDeasWilliamsLyonsBrownWatsonLoweryThompsonTiffoneyAndersonYellow card79'79'66'66'66'Kilmarnock 3-1-4-2Stuart Kettlewell

Celtic substitutes

  • 22' Tierney for Saracchi · goal 51'
  • 64' Ralston for Simpson-Pusey
  • 64' Nygren for McCowan
  • 78' Engels for Kenny · goal 90+3' (pen), 1 assist
  • 78' Yang for Tounekti

Kilmarnock substitutes

  • 66' Kiltie for Tiffoney · yellow card 81'
  • 66' Dackers for Anderson
  • 66' John-Jules for Lowery
  • 79' Polworth for Watson
  • 79' Watkins for Lyons

Players

Celtic

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
SchmeichelGK900.000.0000.0201
Simpson-PuseyRB640.000.0410.0467
TrustyCB900.000.0300.1799
ScalesCB9010.000.0810.2598
SaracchiLB220.000.0100.0211
McCowanCM640.090.1420.0531
McGregor CM900.030.2610.1333
HatateCM9010.000.7070.2560
Maeda RW9010.610.0200.0121
KennyST7811.030.010−0.0100
TounektiLW780.050.0900.10121
TierneyDF6810.040.2620.36137
RalstonDF260.000.3420.2440
NygrenFW260.130.0300.0130
EngelsMF12110.790.2010.0221
YangFW120.100.0000.0320

Kilmarnock

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
BeachGK900.000.0010.0113
StangerCB900.000.0000.0003
DeasCB900.000.010−0.05315
WilliamsCB900.000.0000.01019
Lyons DM790.000.010−0.0213
BrownRWB900.000.0100.03315
WatsonCM790.000.0210.0007
LoweryCM660.000.0100.0123
ThompsonLWB900.000.1610.14611
TiffoneyST660.070.0000.0512
AndersonST660.120.0000.1500
Kiltie MF240.000.000−0.0101
DackersFW240.200.0100.0000
John-JulesFW240.000.010−0.0100
PolworthMF110.000.0000.0100
WatkinsFW110.000.0000.0000

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Celtic

Schmeichel and Simpson-Pusey: 3 passesSchmeichel and Saracchi: 3 passesSimpson-Pusey and Hatate: 3 passesScales and Tounekti: 3 passesTrusty and Hatate: 3 passesSimpson-Pusey and McGregor: 4 passesSimpson-Pusey and McCowan: 4 passesMcGregor and Tounekti: 4 passesSimpson-Pusey and Scales: 5 passesScales and Trusty: 5 passesScales and Hatate: 5 passesTrusty and McGregor: 5 passesSaracchi and Hatate: 5 passesMcGregor and McCowan: 5 passesTrusty and Saracchi: 6 passesHatate and Tounekti: 6 passesSimpson-Pusey and Maeda: 8 passesScales and McGregor: 9 passesSaracchi and Tounekti: 9 passesScales and Saracchi: 12 passesSaracchi and McGregor: 14 passesSimpson-Pusey and Trusty: 20 passesSchmeichel: 5 completed passesSimpson-Pusey: 24 completed passesScales: 23 completed passesTrusty: 22 completed passesSaracchi: 25 completed passesHatate: 13 completed passesMcGregor: 24 completed passesMcCowan: 10 completed passesMaeda: 6 completed passesKenny: 1 completed passesTounekti: 10 completed passes145636414214382423SchmeichelSimpson-PuseyScalesTrustySaracchiHatateMcGregorMcCowanMaedaKennyTounektiStarters until 22' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Kilmarnock

Stanger and Brown: 3 passesStanger and Lowery: 3 passesDeas and Lyons: 3 passesLowery and Lyons: 3 passesThompson and Lyons: 3 passesBeach and Stanger: 4 passesBeach and Anderson: 4 passesWilliams and Lyons: 4 passesBrown and Lowery: 4 passesWatson and Lyons: 4 passesDeas and Williams: 5 passesWilliams and Lowery: 5 passesBrown and Lyons: 5 passesLowery and Tiffoney: 5 passesWilliams and Thompson: 6 passesDeas and Lowery: 7 passesLowery and Thompson: 7 passesBeach and Williams: 11 passesBeach: 13 completed passesStanger: 5 completed passesDeas: 11 completed passesWilliams: 13 completed passesBrown: 10 completed passesLowery: 19 completed passesWatson: 6 completed passesThompson: 18 completed passesLyons: 11 completed passesAnderson: 6 completed passesTiffoney: 4 completed passes301464151812381917BeachStangerDeasWilliamsBrownLoweryWatsonThompsonLyonsAndersonTiffoneyStarters until 66' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Celtic

FromToPasses
TrustySimpson-Pusey38
Simpson-PuseyTrusty26
ScalesTrusty19
TrustyScales18
TierneyTounekti18

Kilmarnock

FromToPasses
BeachWilliams6
LyonsBrown5
WilliamsBeach5
ThompsonDackers5
ThompsonWilliams4

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Celtic

1−1.93−1.310−2.99+3.92−2.15−0.63−2.77+1.09+1.27+2.88+4.52−1.12−3.63−0.43−0.23−2.91−0.82−0.33+1.46+2.52−1.00−1.21+0.41+0.40−0.31−0.24−3.73−3.91−3.90−3.9FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 10 matches

Kilmarnock

10+3.112+3.324+8.77+0.56+2.512+4.63−4.512+4.75−4.07+2.28+2.32−3.44+0.550.03−2.32−2.91−3.40−2.72−0.95+2.32−1.02−0.11−0.91−0.62+0.310.00−0.60−1.10−0.50−0.8FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 11 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Celtic

0.010.010.010.020.010.030.020.020.070.050.100.060.090.080.060.120.070.130.140.19−0.02−0.100.100.060.36LessMore

Kilmarnock

0.010.010.010.010.010.010.020.010.010.050.010.010.010.02−0.010.06−0.02−0.07−0.010.17LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.36AttackCeltic2.27 → 2.31Kilmarnock1.18 → 1.16Defence (lower is better)Celtic0.81 → 0.80Kilmarnock1.48 → 1.51

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Celtic
Title82%83%+1
Kilmarnock
Top six18%17%−1
11th12%13%+1
Bottom7%7%0
Hearts
Title16%15%−1
St. Mirren
Top six16%16%0
11th12%12%0
Bottom8%8%0

From the forecast before the match (9 November 2025): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

CelticKilmarnock
Expected goals2.900.63
Win83%5%
Expected Points2.610.27
Clean sheet53%6%

Celtic 83%Draw 12%Kilmarnock 5%

Most likely score 2–0, 12%. Both sides score 44%.

Kilmarnock goalsCeltic goals0123456+0123456+3%2%8%6%2%8%2%8%2%9%5%2%5%3%1%4%2%12%12%

From the forecast as it stood on 9 November 2025: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowCeltic winDrawKilmarnock win
Celtic
Title82%83%76%70%
Kilmarnock
Top six18%17%21%31%
11th12%13%10%7%
Bottom7%7%4%2%
Hearts
Title16%15%20%25%
St. Mirren
Top six16%16%14%14%
11th12%12%12%17%
Bottom8%8%8%8%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Celtic

  1. W4–029 OctFalkirk (H)xG 4.29–0.47
  2. L1–326 OctHearts (A)xG 0.88–1.57
  3. L0–219 OctDundee FC (A)xG 2.70–1.30
  4. W3–25 OctMotherwell (H)xG 2.62–1.39
  5. D0–027 SepHibernian (H)xG 2.80–0.70
  6. W2–114 SepKilmarnock (A)xG 2.83–1.66

Kilmarnock

  1. L1–31 NovFalkirk (A)xG 0.43–2.08
  2. L0–129 OctAberdeen (H)xG 1.36–0.55
  3. L1–326 OctRangers (A)xG 1.04–1.36
  4. L0–318 OctHearts (H)xG 0.43–2.88
  5. W2–04 OctSt. Mirren (H)xG 2.15–0.43
  6. W2–027 SepDundee United (A)xG 1.49–2.21

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

CelticKilmarnock
Position2nd9th
Played1011
Won, drawn, lost6–⁠2–⁠22–⁠4–⁠5
Points20 (2.00 per game)10 (0.91 per game)
Expected Points per game2.121.10
Goals16–⁠813–⁠18
xG per game2.19–⁠0.831.16–⁠1.63
Home: points, xG per game2.60, 2.83–⁠0.610.83, 1.27–⁠1.46
Away: points, xG per game1.40, 1.55–⁠1.051.00, 1.02–⁠1.84
ManagerMartin O'Neill (1)Stuart Kettlewell (11)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.36AttackCeltic2.27, 1stKilmarnock1.18, 8thDefence (lower is better)Celtic0.81, 1stKilmarnock1.48, 7th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.02.5SepOctNovCeltic attack: 2.27Kilmarnock attack: 1.182.271.18KilmarnockCelticDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.02.5SepOctNovCeltic defence: 0.81Kilmarnock defence: 1.481.480.81

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

CelticKilmarnock
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play+126%−66%−32%+2%
Counter-attacks+3%−41%+8%+71%
Set pieces−18%−6%+41%+19%
Penalties+13%+13%−100%+55%
Headers+73%−7%+26%+26%
Left side+82%−73%−46%+46%
Centre+74%−33%+26%+5%
Right side+35%−48%−38%+15%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Celtic attacking

Celtic createdKilmarnock concededLeft side+82%+15%Centre+74%+5%Right side+35%+46%Open play+126%+2%Counter-attacks+3%+71%Set pieces−18%+19%Headers+73%+26%

Kilmarnock attacking

Kilmarnock createdCeltic concededLeft side−46%−48%Centre+26%−33%Right side−38%−73%Open play−32%−66%Counter-attacks+8%−41%Set pieces+41%−6%Headers+26%−7%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

CelticKilmarnock

2.19xG1.16
0.83xG against1.63
71%Possession39%
17.1Shots10.3
7.1Shots against13.3
5.8Shots on target3.9
4.1Big chances1.9
36.6Touches in the opposition box18.3
653Passes313
88%Pass accuracy71%
8.0Corners4.7
79%Field tilt36%
71.6Final-third entries28.4
22.1Box entries8.6
8.5Passes per defensive action15.1

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Celtic

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level561.900.64
Ahead212.650.97
Behind132.741.42

Kilmarnock

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level391.051.42
Ahead181.352.24
Behind331.181.55

xG by period

Celtic

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.150.051–1
16–300.420.033–1
31–450.420.231–2
46–600.310.233–3
61–750.340.074–0
76–900.540.224–1

Kilmarnock

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.060.230–2
16–300.180.303–5
31–450.260.265–2
46–600.170.162–3
61–750.160.281–4
76–900.330.392–2

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Celtic

GKRBCBCBLBCMCMCMRWSTLWSchmeichel 10Ralston 6Donovan 2Johnston 2Carter-Vickers 7Murray 2Trusty 1Scales 10Tierney 5Saracchi 4Inamura 1Nygren 5Engels 5McCowan 3McGregor 9Bernardo 1Hatate 7Nygren 3Forrest 2Yang 2Iheanacho 3Kenny 2Maeda 2Tounekti 5Maeda 2Balikwisha 24-3-3 in every start

Kilmarnock

GKCBCBCBRWBCMCMCMLWBSTSTStryjek 7Oluwayemi 2Beach 2Stanger 9Schilte-Brown 2Lyons 1Mayo 9Deas 10Williams 1Brandon 4Brown 4Brannan 2Watson 11McKenzie 3Polworth 9Lyons 5Kiltie 4Lowery 1Thompson 8Brannan 3Dackers 10Daniels 4Anderson 6Kiltie 23-5-2 in 4 of 11 starts

Formations: 3-5-2 (4), 5-3-2 (3), 4-3-1-2 (1), 3-1-4-2 (1), 5-4-1 (1), 3-4-1-2 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
14 September 2025Kilmarnock1–2CelticxG 1.66–2.83
12 April 2025Celtic5–1KilmarnockxG 1.81–0.29
10 November 2024Kilmarnock0–2CelticxG 2.22–2.12
4 August 2024Celtic4–0KilmarnockxG 3.11–0.20
15 May 2024Kilmarnock0–5CelticxG 0.75–4.60
17 February 2024Celtic1–1KilmarnockxG 1.49–0.95

14 league meetings since 2020/21: Celtic won 11, Kilmarnock won 1, and 2 were drawn. Goals 41–8 and xG 2.46–1.14 per game.

Key players

Celtic

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Nygren8693520.600.35
Maeda6560220.360.18
McGregor9829100.110.18
Hatate7528100.090.20

Kilmarnock

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Dackers10863100.220.13
Kiltie6520020.050.28
Watson11965310.250.06
Anderson6559100.230.03

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.