Digressive Celts

Matches › 2025/26

Kilmarnock 1–2 Celtic

Sunday 14 September 2025, 15:00 · The BBSP Stadium Rugby Park · Round 5 · Half-time 0–0 · Referee John Beaton · Attendance 8,499

Kilmarnock Watson 83'

Celtic Maeda 57', Iheanacho 90+6' (pen)

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

KilmarnockCeltic
Goals12
xG1.662.83
Non-penalty xG1.662.05
Expected Points0.692.11

Kilmarnock 16%Draw 20%Celtic 64%

Most likely score 2–2, 9%. Final score 1–2, 9%.

Celtic goalsKilmarnock goals0123456+0123456+2%3%3%2%1%5%6%3%1%4%6%3%1%2%4%5%3%1%1%1%9%9%9%9%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

01230153045607590HTAnderson on for Daniels, Thomson on for Polworth, and Kiltie on for McKenzie, 71'Watkins on for Stanger, 77'Williams on for Brown, 84'Forrest on for Balikwisha and Tierney on for Saracchi, 58'McCowan on for Hatate and Iheanacho on for Maeda, 70'Yang on for Tounekti, 87'Watson 83'Maeda 57'Iheanacho 90+6' (pen)Celtic 2.83Kilmarnock 1.6601230153045607590HTAnderson on for Daniels, Thomson on for Polworth, and Kiltie on for McKenzie, 71'Watkins on for Stanger, 77'Williams on for Brown, 84'Forrest on for Balikwisha and Tierney on for Saracchi, 58'McCowan on for Hatate and Iheanacho on for Maeda, 70'Yang on for Tounekti, 87'Watson 83'Maeda 57'Iheanacho 90+6' (pen)2.831.66KilmarnockCeltic

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

KilmarnockCeltic

1.66 +0.62xG2.83 +1.38
1.66Non-penalty xG2.05
0.62 −0.59xG on target2.95 +1.00
12 +2.8Shots21 +8.2
2 −1.5Shots on target6 +0.8
2 0.0Big chances3 −0.5
20 +2Touches in the opposition box46 +16
24% −15Possession76% +5
208 −126Passes730 +46
69% −5Pass accuracy90% +2
18% −16Field tilt82% +6
21 −6Final-third entries73 +12
4 −4.8Box entries27 +8.8
36.5 +22.8Passes per defensive action7.1 −2.7
6 +1.8Corners7 −0.2
14 −7Tackles13 −2
11 +1.2Interceptions5 −2.0
31 −4Clearances32 0
4 +1.0Saves1 −0.5
10 −5Fouls10 −2
2 +0.2Offsides0 −2.2

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Kilmarnock

Deas 90', 0.23 xGWatson 52', 0.21 xGMayo 87', 0.19 xGMayo 90', 0.15 xGDeas 36', 0.10 xGWatkins 89', 0.08 xGDaniels 34', 0.04 xGMcKenzie 54', 0.03 xGMayo 8', 0.02 xGAnderson 83', 0.02 xGAnderson 87', 0.02 xGWatson 83', 0.58 xG, goal60%1.00 xGSix-yard box: 3 shots, 1.00 xG, 1 goal31%0.52 xGCentral box: 5 shots, 0.52 xG, 0 goals1%0.02 xGWide in the box: 1 shot, 0.02 xG, 0 goals8%0.13 xGEdge of the box: 3 shots, 0.13 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Celtic

Tounekti 33', 0.29 xGCarter-Vickers 7', 0.21 xGIheanacho 77', 0.18 xGNygren 90+1', 0.16 xGScales 62', 0.15 xGNygren 67', 0.14 xGMcCowan 81', 0.13 xGNygren 38', 0.10 xGDonovan 35', 0.08 xGIheanacho 78', 0.08 xGForrest 90+3', 0.07 xGNygren 59', 0.06 xGTounekti 69', 0.06 xGHatate 31', 0.05 xGTounekti 75', 0.05 xGScales 20', 0.04 xGTounekti 37', 0.04 xGTounekti 5', 0.02 xGCarter-Vickers 42', 0.02 xGMaeda 56', 0.12 xG, goal16%0.33 xGSix-yard box: 2 shots, 0.33 xG, 0 goals54%1.10 xGCentral box: 10 shots, 1.10 xG, 1 goal25%0.50 xGWide in the box: 5 shots, 0.50 xG, 0 goals4%0.09 xGEdge of the box: 2 shots, 0.09 xG, 0 goals1%0.02 xGFurther out: 1 shot, 0.02 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

KilmarnockCeltic

0.20 3 shots, 0 goalsOpen play1.42 14 shots, 1 goal
0.00 0 shots, 0 goalsCounter-attacks0.08 1 shot, 0 goals
1.46 9 shots, 1 goalSet pieces0.54 5 shots, 0 goals
0.00 0 shots, 0 goalsPenalties0.79 1 shot, 1 goal

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
70 min (72%) · Kilmarnock 1.06, Celtic 1.98 xG
Celtic ahead
27 min (28%) · Kilmarnock 0.60, Celtic 0.86 xG

Line-ups

1151456371231929StryjekBrownStangerMayoDeasThompsonMcKenzieWatsonPolworthDackersDanielsGoalYellow card84'77'71'71'71'Kilmarnock 5-3-2Stuart Kettlewell1512053684241233810SchmeichelDonovanCarter-VickersScalesSaracchiNygrenMcGregorHatateTounektiMaedaBalikwishaYellow cardYellow cardGoal58'70'87'70'58'Celtic 4-3-3Brendan Rodgers

Kilmarnock substitutes

  • 71' Kiltie for McKenzie · yellow card 90+5', 1 assist
  • 71' Thomson for Polworth
  • 71' Anderson for Daniels
  • 77' Watkins for Stanger
  • 84' Williams for Brown

Celtic substitutes

  • 58' Tierney for Saracchi
  • 58' Forrest for Balikwisha
  • 70' McCowan for Hatate
  • 70' Iheanacho for Maeda · goal 90+6' (pen), yellow card 90+7'
  • 87' Yang for Tounekti

Players

Kilmarnock

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
StryjekGK900.000.0000.0451
BrownRWB840.000.0100.0568
StangerCB770.000.0000.0229
MayoCB900.360.0010.0248
DeasCB900.330.0000.0008
ThompsonLWB900.000.1720.0238
McKenzieCM710.030.0000.0012
Watson CM9010.790.0100.0116
PolworthCM710.000.1910.0734
DackersST900.000.2910.2130
DanielsST710.040.000−0.0100
Kiltie MF1910.000.6630.0121
ThomsonMF190.000.0000.0013
AndersonFW190.050.0100.0011
WatkinsFW130.080.0000.0111
WilliamsDF60.000.0000.0002

Celtic

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
SchmeichelGK900.000.0000.0311
DonovanRB900.080.1210.2089
Carter-VickersCB900.220.0100.1789
ScalesCB900.190.0110.1437
SaracchiLB5810.000.2010.2563
Nygren CM900.460.4640.0749
McGregorCM900.000.2110.0437
HatateCM700.050.0410.0032
Tounekti RW870.460.3640.48242
MaedaST7010.120.051−0.0800
BalikwishaLW580.000.1210.0010
TierneyDF320.000.0310.1584
ForrestFW320.070.0100.0120
McCowanMF200.130.6030.3621
Iheanacho FW2011.050.0000.0101
YangFW30.000.0000.0000

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Kilmarnock

Stryjek and Stanger: 3 passesBrown and Thompson: 3 passesBrown and Polworth: 3 passesDeas and Thompson: 3 passesDeas and Polworth: 3 passesDeas and Dackers: 3 passesMayo and Watson: 3 passesMcKenzie and Daniels: 3 passesBrown and Stanger: 4 passesStanger and Dackers: 4 passesMayo and Polworth: 4 passesPolworth and Dackers: 4 passesStryjek and Deas: 5 passesBrown and Watson: 5 passesThompson and Polworth: 5 passesDeas and Mayo: 6 passesDaniels and Dackers: 7 passesStryjek and Mayo: 8 passesStryjek and Dackers: 8 passesStryjek: 19 completed passesBrown: 14 completed passesStanger: 10 completed passesDeas: 13 completed passesMayo: 12 completed passesThompson: 8 completed passesWatson: 8 completed passesMcKenzie: 4 completed passesPolworth: 16 completed passesDaniels: 7 completed passesDackers: 15 completed passes1151465312731299StryjekBrownStangerDeasMayoThompsonWatsonMcKenziePolworthDanielsDackersStarters until 71' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Celtic

Donovan and Hatate: 6 passesScales and Hatate: 6 passesCarter-Vickers and Saracchi: 6 passesSaracchi and Nygren: 6 passesScales and Tounekti: 7 passesMcGregor and Tounekti: 7 passesCarter-Vickers and McGregor: 9 passesCarter-Vickers and Balikwisha: 9 passesDonovan and McGregor: 10 passesHatate and McGregor: 11 passesScales and Nygren: 12 passesNygren and Balikwisha: 13 passesHatate and Nygren: 14 passesSchmeichel and Carter-Vickers: 15 passesSchmeichel and Scales: 16 passesHatate and Tounekti: 16 passesCarter-Vickers and Nygren: 17 passesDonovan and Nygren: 18 passesScales and McGregor: 18 passesDonovan and Balikwisha: 20 passesSaracchi and Tounekti: 20 passesSaracchi and Hatate: 22 passesSaracchi and McGregor: 23 passesDonovan and Carter-Vickers: 32 passesScales and Carter-Vickers: 37 passesScales and Saracchi: 56 passesSchmeichel: 23 completed passesDonovan: 45 completed passesScales: 81 completed passesCarter-Vickers: 66 completed passesSaracchi: 67 completed passesHatate: 39 completed passesNygren: 46 completed passesMcGregor: 45 completed passesBalikwisha: 23 completed passesMaeda: 3 completed passesTounekti: 28 completed passes1515203641842103823SchmeichelDonovanScalesCarter-VickersSaracchiHatateNygrenMcGregorBalikwishaMaedaTounektiStarters until 58' · lines join pairs with 6+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Kilmarnock

FromToPasses
StryjekDackers9
MayoStryjek5
DackersDaniels5
WatsonBrown4
BrownStanger4

Celtic

FromToPasses
ScalesSaracchi37
Carter-VickersScales31
Carter-VickersDonovan26
DonovanCarter-Vickers22
ScalesCarter-Vickers22

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Kilmarnock

10+3.211+4.514−1.510+2.52−2.89+0.25−3.88+0.57−2.04−2.08+2.08+3.83+0.81−4.03−1.83−2.80−2.81−2.02−2.23−1.81−0.82−0.50−1.51−0.51+0.20−1.02+1.50−0.80−0.80−6.8FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 4 matches

Celtic

3−0.85+0.818+3.210+6.02−2.59+2.860.05−4.06+1.21−3.53+0.87+2.25−1.25+0.82−2.24−0.54+1.27+0.21−0.22−0.23+1.22−1.01−1.21−0.51+0.51+0.50−0.20−1.23−6.54−6.0FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 4 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Kilmarnock

0.010.030.020.010.010.020.020.010.010.010.040.020.010.020.04−0.010.02−0.07−0.020.070.070.050.07LessMore

Celtic

0.010.010.020.030.020.010.040.040.020.060.040.020.060.030.140.110.080.080.040.05−0.060.090.330.56LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.36AttackKilmarnock1.23 → 1.22Celtic2.38 → 2.38Defence (lower is better)Kilmarnock1.42 → 1.44Celtic0.75 → 0.76

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Kilmarnock
Top six36%33%−3
11th6%7%+1
Bottom3%3%0
Celtic
Title97%98%+1
Dundee FC
Top six3%3%0
11th27%26%−1
Bottom33%33%0

From the forecast before the match (14 September 2025): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

KilmarnockCeltic
Expected goals0.792.25
Win11%70%
Expected Points0.522.29
Clean sheet11%45%

Kilmarnock 11%Draw 19%Celtic 70%

Most likely score 0–2, 12%. Both sides score 49%.

Celtic goalsKilmarnock goals0123456+0123456+5%5%2%1%3%7%4%2%1%1%3%4%3%2%1%10%12%9%9%10%

From the forecast as it stood on 14 September 2025: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowKilmarnock winDrawCeltic win
Kilmarnock
Top six36%50%38%33%
11th6%3%6%7%
Bottom3%1%2%3%
Celtic
Title97%96%96%98%
Dundee FC
Top six3%2%2%3%
11th27%31%28%26%
Bottom33%33%34%33%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Kilmarnock

  1. D2–230 AugMotherwell (A)xG 1.20–1.76
  2. D0–023 AugDundee FC (H)xG 1.11–0.26
  3. D2–210 AugHibernian (A)xG 0.94–1.77
  4. D2–22 AugLivingston (H)xG 0.91–1.83
  5. L0–118 MayHearts (H)xG 1.07–0.68
  6. L0–314 MayMotherwell (A)xG 0.53–2.57

Celtic

  1. D0–031 AugRangers (A)xG 0.19–0.15
  2. W3–023 AugLivingston (H)xG 3.02–0.24
  3. W2–010 AugAberdeen (A)xG 1.17–0.55
  4. W1–03 AugSt. Mirren (H)xG 1.41–0.23
  5. D1–117 MaySt. Mirren (H)xG 2.55–0.20
  6. W5–114 MayAberdeen (A)xG 3.68–1.07

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

KilmarnockCeltic
Position8th2nd
Played44
Won, drawn, lost0–⁠4–⁠03–⁠1–⁠0
Points4 (1.00 per game)10 (2.50 per game)
Expected Points per game1.112.06
Goals6–⁠66–⁠0
xG per game1.04–⁠1.411.45–⁠0.29
Home: points, xG per game1.00, 1.01–⁠1.043.00, 2.21–⁠0.23
Away: points, xG per game1.00, 1.07–⁠1.772.00, 0.68–⁠0.35
ManagerStuart Kettlewell (4)Brendan Rodgers (80)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.36AttackKilmarnock1.23, 6thCeltic2.38, 1stDefence (lower is better)Kilmarnock1.42, 7thCeltic0.75, 1st

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.02.5SepKilmarnock attack: 1.23Celtic attack: 2.382.381.23CelticKilmarnockDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.02.5SepKilmarnock defence: 1.42Celtic defence: 0.751.420.75

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

KilmarnockCeltic
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−17%−16%+97%−61%
Counter-attacks−34%+144%−19%−64%
Set pieces+15%+3%−28%−73%
Penalties−50%+75%−50%−87%
Headers+11%+17%−1%−71%
Left side−38%+35%+50%−63%
Centre+5%−12%+39%−65%
Right side−6%+9%+56%−67%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't. Until a side has played six matches its figures are blended with last season's, or with the league average where there is no last season to use.

Matchups

Kilmarnock attacking

Kilmarnock createdCeltic concededLeft side−38%−67%Centre+5%−65%Right side−6%−63%Open play−17%−61%Counter-attacks−34%−64%Set pieces+15%−73%Headers+11%−71%

Celtic attacking

Celtic createdKilmarnock concededLeft side+50%+9%Centre+39%−12%Right side+56%+35%Open play+97%−16%Counter-attacks−19%+144%Set pieces−28%+3%Headers−1%+17%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

KilmarnockCeltic

1.04xG1.45
1.41xG against0.29
39%Possession71%
9.2Shots12.8
12.0Shots against5.0
3.5Shots on target5.2
2.0Big chances3.5
17.8Touches in the opposition box30.0
334Passes684
74%Pass accuracy88%
4.2Corners7.2
34%Field tilt76%
27.4Final-third entries61.5
8.8Box entries18.2
13.7Passes per defensive action9.8

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Kilmarnock

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level600.870.72
Ahead180.683.41
Behind122.491.74

Celtic

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level631.240.15
Ahead271.920.63
Behind0––

xG by period

Kilmarnock

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.050.100–0
16–300.150.351–2
31–450.330.283–1
46–600.100.071–0
61–750.180.290–2
76–900.220.321–1

Celtic

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.110.010–0
16–300.120.011–0
31–450.340.040–0
46–600.410.041–0
61–750.190.082–0
76–900.270.132–0

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Kilmarnock

GKRWBCBCBCBLWBCMCMCMSTSTStryjek 4Brandon 3Brannan 1Stanger 2Schilte-B… 2Schilte-BrownLyons 1Mayo 4Deas 3Brannan 3Thompson 1Watson 4Polworth 4Lyons 2McKenzie 1Lowery 1Daniels 3Dackers 3Anderson 1Kiltie 15-3-2 in 1 of 4 starts

Formations: 5-3-2 (1), 5-4-1 (1), 3-5-2 (1), 3-4-1-2 (1)

Celtic

GKRBCBCBLBCMCMCMRWSTLWSchmeichel 4Ralston 2Johnston 2Carter-Vickers 3Murray 1Scales 4Tierney 3Inamura 1Nygren 2Engels 2McCowan 1McGregor 3Bernardo 1Hatate 3Nygren 2Yang 1Forrest 1Idah 2Maeda 1Yamada 1Maeda 2Balikwisha 1Yang 14-3-3 in every start

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
12 April 2025Celtic5–1KilmarnockxG 1.81–0.29
10 November 2024Kilmarnock0–2CelticxG 2.22–2.12
4 August 2024Celtic4–0KilmarnockxG 3.11–0.20
15 May 2024Kilmarnock0–5CelticxG 0.75–4.60
17 February 2024Celtic1–1KilmarnockxG 1.49–0.95
10 December 2023Kilmarnock2–1CelticxG 2.06–1.68

13 league meetings since 2020/21: Kilmarnock won 1, Celtic won 10, and 2 were drawn. Goals 7–39 and xG 1.09–2.43 per game.

Key players

Kilmarnock

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Anderson161,6071110.620.05
Watkins222,033410.340.05
Polworth201,852310.080.11
Watson272,488510.120.06

Celtic

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Idah211,8501300.700.13
Engels272,305970.400.34
McCowan141,393770.240.44
Forrest91,076150.240.41

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes. Until a side has played six matches, last season's minutes at the club count too.