Digressive Celts

Matches › 2025/26

Celtic 2–0 Falkirk

Sunday 1 February 2026, 15:00 · Celtic Park · Round 24 · Half-time 1–0 · Referee David Dickinson · Attendance 58,450

Celtic Cvancara 39', Nygren 62'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

CelticFalkirk
Goals20
xG0.661.07
Expected Points0.971.67

Celtic 21%Draw 35%Falkirk 44%

Most likely score 0–1, 19%. Final score 2–0, 3%.

Falkirk goalsCeltic goals0123456+0123456+10%3%11%8%2%3%4%3%17%19%16%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

00.511.50153045607590HTForrest on for Yang, 48'Hatate on for Engels, 71'Tounekti on for Cvancara, 72'Welsh on for Tierney, 83'Iheanacho on for Maeda, 84'Yeats on for Marsh, 63'Cartwright on for Tait and Ross on for Wilson, 64'Graham on for Stewart, 74'Nesbitt on for Miller, 84'Cvancara 39'Nygren 62'Falkirk 1.07Celtic 0.6600.511.50153045607590HTForrest on for Yang, 48'Hatate on for Engels, 71'Tounekti on for Cvancara, 72'Welsh on for Tierney, 83'Iheanacho on for Maeda, 84'Yeats on for Marsh, 63'Cartwright on for Tait and Ross on for Wilson, 64'Graham on for Stewart, 74'Nesbitt on for Miller, 84'Cvancara 39'Nygren 62'1.070.66CelticFalkirk

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

CelticFalkirk

0.66 −1.55xG1.07 −0.19
1.08 −0.99xG on target1.34 +0.16
10 −6Shots13 +1
5 −0.4Shots on target3 −1.0
2 −1.7Big chances3 +1.1
30 −5Touches in the opposition box19 −1
58% −10Possession42% −8
546 −92Passes404 +3
88% +1Pass accuracy82% +5
61% −16Field tilt39% −7
69 +3Final-third entries36 +2
17 −3Box entries8 −2
19.0 +9.2Passes per defensive action21.9 +9.2
9 +2.4Corners4 −0.8
17 +3Tackles23 +4
8 +1.1Interceptions11 +2.0
19 −8Clearances34 +5
3 +0.8Saves2 −1.3
7 −5Fouls5 −7
1 −0.7Offsides4 +1.9

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Celtic

Nygren 67', 0.20 xGYang 26', 0.11 xGCvancara 56', 0.08 xGYang 13', 0.03 xGTierney 19', 0.03 xGCvancara 37', 0.03 xGAraujo 44', 0.01 xGAraujo 77', 0.01 xGCvancara 39', 0.09 xG, goalNygren 62', 0.05 xG, goal0%0.00 xGSix-yard box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals48%0.32 xGCentral box: 3 shots, 0.32 xG, 1 goal39%0.26 xGWide in the box: 4 shots, 0.26 xG, 1 goal11%0.07 xGEdge of the box: 2 shots, 0.07 xG, 0 goals2%0.01 xGFurther out: 1 shot, 0.01 xG, 0 goals

Falkirk

Stewart 10', 0.22 xGMarsh 42', 0.21 xGStewart 9', 0.16 xGStewart 54', 0.12 xGMiller 55', 0.07 xGAllan 52', 0.06 xGMiller 29', 0.04 xGMarsh 40', 0.04 xGMiller 47', 0.04 xGMarsh 57', 0.04 xGWilson 53', 0.03 xGMiller 37', 0.02 xGMiller 65', 0.02 xG41%0.44 xGSix-yard box: 2 shots, 0.44 xG, 0 goals36%0.38 xGCentral box: 4 shots, 0.38 xG, 0 goals7%0.08 xGWide in the box: 2 shots, 0.08 xG, 0 goals13%0.14 xGEdge of the box: 4 shots, 0.14 xG, 0 goals3%0.03 xGFurther out: 1 shot, 0.03 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

CelticFalkirk

0.53 7 shots, 2 goalsOpen play0.48 7 shots, 0 goals
0.08 1 shot, 0 goalsCounter-attacks0.07 2 shots, 0 goals
0.05 2 shots, 0 goalsSet pieces0.52 4 shots, 0 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
39 min (43%) · Celtic 0.30, Falkirk 0.44 xG
Celtic ahead
51 min (57%) · Celtic 0.36, Falkirk 0.63 xG

Line-ups

1224756313274238118SchmeichelAraujoMurrayScalesTierneyYangEngelsMcGregorMaedaCvancaraNygrenGoalGoal83'48'71'84'72'Celtic 4-4-2Martin O'Neill192205316212282930BainAdamsAllanHendersonMcCannStewartTaitWilsonSpencerMillerMarshYellow card74'64'64'84'63'Falkirk 4-2-3-1John McGlynn

Celtic substitutes

  • 48' Forrest for Yang
  • 71' Hatate for Engels
  • 72' Tounekti for Cvancara
  • 83' Welsh for Tierney
  • 84' Iheanacho for Maeda

Falkirk substitutes

  • 63' Yeats for Marsh
  • 64' Cartwright for Tait · yellow card 66'
  • 64' Ross for Wilson
  • 74' Graham for Stewart
  • 84' Nesbitt for Miller

Players

Celtic

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
SchmeichelGK900.000.0000.0211
AraujoRB900.020.0820.23155
MurrayCB900.000.0200.0945
ScalesCB900.000.0400.191413
TierneyLB8310.030.1210.17168
YangRM480.150.0100.0650
EngelsCM710.000.1310.0103
McGregorCM9010.000.0620.0454
MaedaLM840.000.0000.0723
CvancaraST7210.200.0300.0510
NygrenST9010.260.0300.0231
ForrestFW420.000.2700.1851
HatateMF190.000.000−0.0110
TounektiFW180.000.0110.0223
WelshDF70.000.0000.0201
IheanachoFW60.000.0000.0000

Falkirk

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
BainGK900.000.0000.0463
AdamsRB900.000.0310.12410
AllanCB900.060.0210.0969
HendersonCB900.000.4110.03112
McCann LB900.000.2210.2758
StewartDM740.510.120−0.1104
TaitDM640.000.0310.0554
WilsonRW640.030.0100.0659
SpencerAM900.000.0720.0154
MillerLW840.180.2120.0242
MarshST630.290.4920.1712
YeatsMF270.000.000−0.0100
Cartwright MF260.000.0000.0001
RossFW260.000.000−0.0121
GrahamFW160.000.0000.0000
NesbittMF60.000.0400.0710

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Celtic

Araujo and Scales: 3 passesAraujo and Cvancara: 3 passesScales and Engels: 3 passesYang and Engels: 3 passesMcGregor and Nygren: 3 passesYang and Cvancara: 4 passesAraujo and Engels: 5 passesScales and Cvancara: 5 passesScales and Nygren: 5 passesTierney and Maeda: 5 passesSchmeichel and Araujo: 6 passesScales and Maeda: 6 passesMurray and Yang: 6 passesTierney and McGregor: 6 passesTierney and Cvancara: 6 passesTierney and Nygren: 6 passesEngels and McGregor: 6 passesAraujo and Yang: 7 passesMurray and McGregor: 7 passesAraujo and McGregor: 8 passesScales and Murray: 16 passesSchmeichel and Murray: 18 passesScales and Tierney: 18 passesAraujo and Murray: 19 passesScales and McGregor: 20 passesSchmeichel and Scales: 26 passesSchmeichel: 32 completed passesAraujo: 29 completed passesScales: 51 completed passesMurray: 36 completed passesTierney: 24 completed passesYang: 8 completed passesEngels: 12 completed passesMcGregor: 32 completed passesMaeda: 3 completed passesCvancara: 5 completed passesNygren: 11 completed passes1225476313274238118SchmeichelAraujoScalesMurrayTierneyYangEngelsMcGregorMaedaCvancaraNygrenStarters until 48' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Falkirk

Miller and Marsh: 4 passesAdams and Spencer: 5 passesMcCann and Tait: 6 passesTait and Spencer: 6 passesTait and Miller: 6 passesStewart and Marsh: 6 passesSpencer and Miller: 6 passesAdams and Tait: 7 passesMcCann and Spencer: 7 passesTait and Wilson: 7 passesTait and Marsh: 7 passesHenderson and McCann: 8 passesHenderson and Spencer: 8 passesBain and Allan: 9 passesAllan and Tait: 9 passesAdams and Wilson: 10 passesAllan and Spencer: 10 passesAdams and Allan: 11 passesMcCann and Miller: 11 passesAllan and Henderson: 12 passesBain and Henderson: 18 passesBain: 20 completed passesAdams: 24 completed passesAllan: 30 completed passesHenderson: 29 completed passesMcCann: 21 completed passesTait: 23 completed passesStewart: 6 completed passesWilson: 15 completed passesSpencer: 28 completed passesMiller: 17 completed passesMarsh: 12 completed passes192205321162282930BainAdamsAllanHendersonMcCannTaitStewartWilsonSpencerMillerMarshStarters until 63' · lines join pairs with 4+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Celtic

FromToPasses
SchmeichelMurray26
MurrayAraujo22
SchmeichelScales22
McGregorScales21
ScalesTierney21

Falkirk

FromToPasses
HendersonBain16
BainHenderson15
SpencerAllan12
AllanHenderson12
HendersonMcCann11

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Celtic

2−0.75+0.79−2.96+0.77+3.14−1.65−0.23−2.69+0.713+5.52−2.52−2.030.05−0.96+0.41−3.64+0.51−2.30−3.63−1.52−0.31−1.31−0.64+0.78+5.10−0.90−0.30−0.70−0.34+3.0FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 23 matches

Falkirk

15+7.110+3.519+4.913+5.67+1.910+0.69+2.02−5.25−3.03−3.86+1.45+2.05+1.05−1.43−1.43−0.54+2.13+0.41−3.54+0.11−1.00−1.21−1.23+0.60−1.20−0.32+1.40−0.30−1.00−6.2FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 23 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Celtic

0.010.010.010.030.010.010.020.030.100.020.060.040.040.020.080.040.04−0.030.040.050.020.010.030.160.150.15LessMore

Falkirk

0.010.010.010.010.020.010.040.010.020.030.040.030.010.060.030.010.010.090.02−0.010.010.080.07−0.10−0.020.160.17LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.0League average 1.32AttackCeltic2.04 → 1.99Falkirk1.22 → 1.22Defence (lower is better)Celtic0.90 → 0.91Falkirk1.25 → 1.21

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Celtic
Title33%37%+4
Falkirk
Top six92%91%−1
Hearts
Title39%37%−2
Rangers
Title27%26%−1

From the forecast before the match (1 February 2026): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

CelticFalkirk
Expected goals2.270.74
Win72%10%
Expected Points2.330.49
Clean sheet48%10%

Celtic 72%Draw 18%Falkirk 10%

Most likely score 2–0, 13%. Both sides score 47%.

Falkirk goalsCeltic goals0123456+0123456+5%3%1%9%3%3%7%3%5%4%1%2%2%1%1%11%13%9%10%

From the forecast as it stood on 1 February 2026: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowCeltic winDrawFalkirk win
Celtic
Title33%37%25%20%
Falkirk
Top six92%91%94%97%
Hearts
Title39%37%44%47%
Rangers
Title27%26%30%33%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Celtic

  1. D2–225 JanHearts (A)xG 1.35–1.66
  2. W1–014 JanFalkirk (A)xG 0.62–1.72
  3. W4–010 JanDundee United (H)xG 3.18–0.34
  4. L1–33 JanRangers (H)xG 2.34–1.44
  5. L0–230 DecMotherwell (A)xG 0.59–1.40
  6. W4–227 DecLivingston (A)xG 3.83–1.09

Falkirk

  1. W4–124 JanHibernian (H)xG 3.64–0.73
  2. L0–114 JanCeltic (H)xG 1.72–0.62
  3. W2–010 JanSt. Mirren (A)xG 0.52–0.54
  4. W1–03 JanAberdeen (H)xG 1.53–0.57
  5. L0–127 DecDundee FC (A)xG 1.33–1.24
  6. W1–020 DecKilmarnock (A)xG 1.46–1.19

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

CelticFalkirk
Position3rd6th
Played2323
Won, drawn, lost14–⁠3–⁠69–⁠6–⁠8
Points45 (1.96 per game)33 (1.43 per game)
Expected Points per game2.001.38
Goals41–⁠2327–⁠29
xG per game2.21–⁠0.981.26–⁠1.31
Home: points, xG per game2.27, 2.83–⁠0.621.42, 1.57–⁠1.04
Away: points, xG per game1.67, 1.63–⁠1.311.45, 0.93–⁠1.61
ManagerMartin O'Neill (3)John McGlynn (23)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.0League average 1.32AttackCeltic2.04, 1stFalkirk1.22, 6thDefence (lower is better)Celtic0.90, 1stFalkirk1.25, 6th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.02.5SepOctNovDecJanCeltic attack: 2.04Falkirk attack: 1.222.041.22FalkirkCelticDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.02.5SepOctNovDecJanCeltic defence: 0.90Falkirk defence: 1.251.250.90

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

CelticFalkirk
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play+106%−36%+5%−10%
Counter-attacks−13%−43%−18%+25%
Set pieces−12%−17%−20%−21%
Penalties+18%−12%−71%+18%
Headers+64%−39%−28%+10%
Left side+74%−46%−50%−17%
Centre+79%−22%−3%−11%
Right side+6%−40%+37%+3%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Celtic attacking

Celtic createdFalkirk concededLeft side+74%+3%Centre+79%−11%Right side+6%−17%Open play+106%−10%Counter-attacks−13%+25%Set pieces−12%−21%Headers+64%+10%

Falkirk attacking

Falkirk createdCeltic concededLeft side−50%−40%Centre−3%−22%Right side+37%−46%Open play+5%−36%Counter-attacks−18%−43%Set pieces−20%−17%Headers−28%−39%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

CelticFalkirk

2.21xG1.26
0.98xG against1.31
68%Possession50%
16.5Shots12.1
8.6Shots against12.2
5.4Shots on target4.0
3.7Big chances1.9
35.0Touches in the opposition box20.1
638Passes401
87%Pass accuracy76%
6.6Corners4.8
77%Field tilt46%
65.8Final-third entries34.2
20.4Box entries10.5
9.8Passes per defensive action12.7

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Celtic

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level422.250.85
Ahead342.051.12
Behind142.441.04

Falkirk

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level441.271.56
Ahead191.400.63
Behind261.151.40

xG by period

Celtic

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.360.127–4
16–300.360.127–1
31–450.400.216–3
46–600.290.254–9
61–750.330.127–4
76–900.460.1610–2

Falkirk

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.200.162–1
16–300.270.264–6
31–450.210.353–10
46–600.200.186–3
61–750.180.197–4
76–900.200.175–5

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Celtic

GKRBCBCBLBCMCMCMRWSTLWSchmeichel 22Sinisalo 1Ralston 7Yang 6Donovan 4Trusty 13Carter-Vickers 7Murray 2Scales 19Tierney 4Tierney 11Saracchi 7McCowan 3Engels 15Nygren 11McCowan 5McGregor 22Hatate 12Bernardo 3Yang 5Nygren 4Maeda 3Kenny 8Maeda 7Iheanacho 3Maeda 9Tounekti 8Yang 34-3-3 in 18 of 23 starts

Formations: 4-3-3 (18), 3-4-2-1 (4), 3-4-3 (1)

Falkirk

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTBain 23Adams 16Lissah 5Yeats 1Allan 14Neilson 6Lissah 2Henderson 23McCann 13Lissah 7Hart 2Spencer 23Cartwright 8Tait 14Yeats 1Wilson 13Miller 4Williams 2Miller 8Tait 5Yeats 3Miller 10Williams 6Ross 4MacIver 9Graham 7Stewart 44-2-3-1 in every start

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
14 January 2026Falkirk0–1CelticxG 1.72–0.62
29 October 2025Celtic4–0FalkirkxG 4.29–0.47

2 league meetings since 2020/21: Celtic won 2, Falkirk won 0, and 0 were drawn. Goals 5–0 and xG 2.46–1.09 per game.

Key players

Celtic

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Kenny8688420.890.07
Nygren151,3761130.500.29
Maeda191,668750.510.18
Forrest2475100.270.34

Falkirk

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
MacIver9661310.410.12
Graham7714400.460.07
Miller221,748460.240.24
Wilson131,033110.290.14

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.