Digressive Celts

Matches › 2025/26

Falkirk 0–1 Celtic

Wednesday 14 January 2026, 19:45 · Falkirk Stadium · Round 17 · Half-time 0–1 · Referee John Beaton · Attendance 7,730

Celtic Nygren 43'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

FalkirkCeltic
Goals01
xG1.720.62
Expected Points2.310.47

Falkirk 69%Draw 23%Celtic 8%

Most likely score 1–0, 19%. Final score 0–1, 2%.

Celtic goalsFalkirk goals0123456+0123456+3%2%4%14%4%7%5%1%2%1%19%15%19%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

00.511.520153045607590HTMarsh on for Yeats and Parkinson on for Stewart, 63'Cartwright on for Tait, 74'Ross on for Wilson and Williams on for Miller, 78'Hatate on for Tounekti and McCowan on for Yang, 66'Kenny on for Engels, 79'Nygren 43'Falkirk 1.72Celtic 0.6200.511.520153045607590HTMarsh on for Yeats and Parkinson on for Stewart, 63'Cartwright on for Tait, 74'Ross on for Wilson and Williams on for Miller, 78'Hatate on for Tounekti and McCowan on for Yang, 66'Kenny on for Engels, 79'Nygren 43'1.720.62FalkirkCeltic

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

FalkirkCeltic

1.72 +0.59xG0.62 −1.70
0.86 −0.23xG on target1.77 −0.34
11 −1Shots7 −10
6 +2.1Shots on target2 −3.7
2 +0.2Big chances1 −3.0
17 −3Touches in the opposition box27 −9
43% −8Possession57% −13
423 +24Passes582 −74
78% +2Pass accuracy84% −4
23% −24Field tilt77% −3
24 −11Final-third entries61 −7
10 0Box entries11 −11
21.9 +9.6Passes per defensive action14.4 +5.0
3 −1.8Corners4 −3.0
17 −1Tackles9 −5
12 +3.0Interceptions10 +3.2
25 −5Clearances27 0
1 −2.4Saves6 +4.0
8 −5Fouls10 −2
3 +0.9Offsides1 −0.8

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Falkirk

Wilson 24', 0.83 xGWilliams 81', 0.36 xGStewart 27', 0.11 xGStewart 57', 0.09 xGWilson 31', 0.07 xGStewart 7', 0.05 xGLissah 22', 0.05 xGMcCann 29', 0.05 xGSpencer 31', 0.05 xGYeats 58', 0.03 xGHenderson 90+4', 0.03 xG55%0.94 xGSix-yard box: 3 shots, 0.94 xG, 0 goals32%0.55 xGCentral box: 3 shots, 0.55 xG, 0 goals6%0.10 xGWide in the box: 2 shots, 0.10 xG, 0 goals8%0.13 xGEdge of the box: 3 shots, 0.13 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Celtic

Maeda 30', 0.12 xGMaeda 12', 0.08 xGTrusty 54', 0.06 xGKenny 87', 0.06 xGEngels 30', 0.05 xGTounekti 49', 0.04 xGNygren 43', 0.21 xG, goal53%0.33 xGSix-yard box: 2 shots, 0.33 xG, 1 goal40%0.25 xGCentral box: 4 shots, 0.25 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGWide in the box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals6%0.04 xGEdge of the box: 1 shot, 0.04 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

FalkirkCeltic

1.64 9 shots, 0 goalsOpen play0.23 4 shots, 0 goals
0.05 1 shot, 0 goalsCounter-attacks0.00 0 shots, 0 goals
0.03 1 shot, 0 goalsSet pieces0.39 3 shots, 1 goal

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
43 min (46%) · Falkirk 1.21, Celtic 0.46 xG
Celtic ahead
51 min (54%) · Falkirk 0.51, Celtic 0.16 xG

Line-ups

1928205382122142916BainLissahAllanHendersonMcCannSpencerTaitWilsonYeatsMillerStewart74'78'63'78'63'Falkirk 4-2-3-1John McGlynn122656327428133823SchmeichelAraujoTrustyScalesTierneyEngelsMcGregorNygrenYangMaedaTounektiYellow cardGoal79'66'66'Celtic 4-3-3Martin O'Neill

Falkirk substitutes

  • 63' Parkinson for Stewart
  • 63' Marsh for Yeats
  • 74' Cartwright for Tait
  • 78' Ross for Wilson
  • 78' Williams for Miller

Celtic substitutes

  • 66' McCowan for Yang
  • 66' Hatate for Tounekti
  • 79' Kenny for Engels

Players

Falkirk

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
BainGK900.000.0000.0420
LissahRB900.050.4100.23914
AllanCB900.000.0000.03410
HendersonCB900.030.001−0.1418
McCannLB900.050.0200.0955
SpencerDM900.050.1630.0457
TaitDM740.000.000−0.0212
WilsonRW780.900.1210.3532
YeatsAM630.030.010−0.0423
MillerLW780.000.1220.1671
StewartST630.250.0210.0501
ParkinsonFW270.000.0000.0000
MarshFW270.000.0000.0120
CartwrightMF160.000.0000.0001
RossFW120.000.0100.0211
WilliamsFW120.360.0000.0001

Celtic

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
SchmeichelGK900.000.0000.0202
AraujoRB900.000.0300.12126
TrustyCB900.060.0200.10107
ScalesCB900.000.3510.1985
Tierney LB900.000.0400.1397
EngelsCM7910.050.402−0.0145
McGregorCM900.000.0400.0345
NygrenCM9010.210.2510.1642
YangRW660.000.0200.0335
MaedaST900.190.130−0.0201
TounektiLW660.040.0600.0872
McCowanMF240.000.010−0.0210
HatateMF240.000.5800.0700
KennyFW110.060.110−0.1100

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Falkirk

Bain and Tait: 4 passesLissah and Spencer: 4 passesAllan and Henderson: 4 passesMcCann and Tait: 4 passesSpencer and Stewart: 4 passesLissah and Wilson: 5 passesAllan and Tait: 5 passesAllan and Spencer: 5 passesHenderson and Tait: 5 passesHenderson and Miller: 5 passesTait and Yeats: 5 passesWilson and Stewart: 5 passesHenderson and Spencer: 6 passesMcCann and Spencer: 6 passesMcCann and Yeats: 6 passesWilson and Miller: 6 passesBain and Spencer: 7 passesMcCann and Miller: 8 passesLissah and Tait: 10 passesLissah and Allan: 20 passesHenderson and McCann: 20 passesBain and Allan: 21 passesBain and Henderson: 22 passesBain: 38 completed passesLissah: 25 completed passesAllan: 30 completed passesHenderson: 33 completed passesMcCann: 27 completed passesTait: 14 completed passesSpencer: 22 completed passesWilson: 12 completed passesYeats: 14 completed passesMiller: 14 completed passesStewart: 6 completed passes1928205321822142916BainLissahAllanHendersonMcCannTaitSpencerWilsonYeatsMillerStewartStarters until 63' · lines join pairs with 4+ passes

Celtic

Schmeichel and Araujo: 5 passesAraujo and Maeda: 5 passesScales and Maeda: 5 passesNygren and McGregor: 5 passesAraujo and McGregor: 6 passesTrusty and Nygren: 6 passesEngels and Maeda: 6 passesTierney and McGregor: 8 passesEngels and McGregor: 8 passesScales and McGregor: 9 passesMcGregor and Yang: 9 passesTrusty and Engels: 10 passesNygren and Tounekti: 10 passesEngels and Yang: 11 passesTierney and Nygren: 15 passesSchmeichel and Trusty: 16 passesScales and Tounekti: 17 passesAraujo and Engels: 18 passesTrusty and McGregor: 18 passesSchmeichel and Scales: 20 passesTierney and Tounekti: 24 passesScales and Tierney: 27 passesAraujo and Yang: 28 passesScales and Trusty: 30 passesAraujo and Trusty: 37 passesSchmeichel: 31 completed passesAraujo: 53 completed passesScales: 62 completed passesTrusty: 65 completed passesTierney: 46 completed passesEngels: 32 completed passesNygren: 24 completed passesMcGregor: 38 completed passesYang: 23 completed passesMaeda: 10 completed passesTounekti: 21 completed passes122566327842133823SchmeichelAraujoScalesTrustyTierneyEngelsNygrenMcGregorYangMaedaTounektiStarters until 66' · lines join pairs with 5+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Falkirk

FromToPasses
BainHenderson20
HendersonMcCann19
LissahAllan16
AllanBain15
AllanLissah14

Celtic

FromToPasses
TrustyAraujo23
AraujoTrusty18
AraujoYang18
ScalesTrusty18
TrustyScales17

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Falkirk

18+10.98+1.614−0.36−1.42−3.313+3.68+0.92−4.46−1.28−0.26−0.83−1.80−3.03−1.07+0.52−2.42−1.63+1.12−0.86+1.62−2.01−1.10−1.27+5.03+0.61−0.10−0.30−0.60−0.32+1.1FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 21 matches

Celtic

3+0.56+1.911−0.53−2.52−2.06+0.65−0.24−1.76−2.48+0.54−0.61−3.24+1.05−0.95−0.46+1.64+0.62−1.44+0.35+2.86+3.91−0.75+1.87+4.22+1.10−0.40−0.71+0.82+1.11−3.7FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 21 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Falkirk

0.010.010.020.040.010.030.010.030.020.010.030.020.040.030.010.19−0.02−0.010.070.06−0.16−0.020.060.35LessMore

Celtic

0.010.010.030.010.020.030.040.050.020.040.050.050.010.030.070.010.080.01−0.030.03−0.03−0.230.020.020.230.20LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.31AttackFalkirk1.10 → 1.12Celtic2.17 → 2.09Defence (lower is better)Falkirk1.34 → 1.29Celtic0.84 → 0.86

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Falkirk
Top six71%66%−5
Celtic
Title55%61%+6
Rangers
Title24%21%−3
Aberdeen
Top six12%14%+2
11th2%2%0

From the forecast before the match (14 January 2026): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

FalkirkCeltic
Expected goals0.831.98
Win14%64%
Expected Points0.652.14
Clean sheet14%44%

Falkirk 14%Draw 22%Celtic 64%

Most likely score 0–2, 12%. Both sides score 49%.

Celtic goalsFalkirk goals0123456+0123456+6%8%4%2%4%6%3%1%2%4%4%3%1%1%1%11%12%10%10%

From the forecast as it stood on 14 January 2026: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowFalkirk winDrawCeltic win
Falkirk
Top six71%85%74%66%
Celtic
Title55%42%49%61%
Rangers
Title24%32%28%21%
Aberdeen
Top six12%6%11%14%
11th2%1%2%2%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Falkirk

  1. W2–010 JanSt. Mirren (A)xG 0.52–0.54
  2. W1–03 JanAberdeen (H)xG 1.53–0.57
  3. L0–127 DecDundee FC (A)xG 1.33–1.24
  4. W1–020 DecKilmarnock (A)xG 1.46–1.19
  5. L0–213 DecHearts (H)xG 1.03–1.51
  6. L0–36 DecHibernian (A)xG 0.49–2.02

Celtic

  1. W4–010 JanDundee United (H)xG 3.18–0.34
  2. L1–33 JanRangers (H)xG 2.34–1.44
  3. L0–230 DecMotherwell (A)xG 0.59–1.40
  4. W4–227 DecLivingston (A)xG 3.83–1.09
  5. W3–121 DecAberdeen (H)xG 4.72–0.91
  6. L1–217 DecDundee United (A)xG 3.20–1.45

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

FalkirkCeltic
Position6th3rd
Played2121
Won, drawn, lost8–⁠6–⁠713–⁠2–⁠6
Points30 (1.43 per game)41 (1.95 per game)
Expected Points per game1.262.12
Goals23–⁠2738–⁠21
xG per game1.13–⁠1.372.32–⁠0.91
Home: points, xG per game1.40, 1.34–⁠1.112.27, 2.83–⁠0.62
Away: points, xG per game1.45, 0.93–⁠1.611.60, 1.76–⁠1.23
ManagerJohn McGlynn (21)Martin O'Neill (1)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.31AttackFalkirk1.10, 9thCeltic2.17, 1stDefence (lower is better)Falkirk1.34, 6thCeltic0.84, 1st

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.02.5SepOctNovDecJanFalkirk attack: 1.10Celtic attack: 2.172.171.10CelticFalkirkDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.02.5SepOctNovDecJanFalkirk defence: 1.34Celtic defence: 0.841.340.84

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

FalkirkCeltic
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−11%−1%+124%−44%
Counter-attacks−13%+31%−8%−41%
Set pieces−20%−23%−11%−20%
Penalties−69%+23%+23%−8%
Headers−26%+10%+70%−39%
Left side−51%−14%+89%−45%
Centre−22%−4%+90%−33%
Right side+42%+10%+15%−37%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Falkirk attacking

Falkirk createdCeltic concededLeft side−51%−37%Centre−22%−33%Right side+42%−45%Open play−11%−44%Counter-attacks−13%−41%Set pieces−20%−20%Headers−26%−39%

Celtic attacking

Celtic createdFalkirk concededLeft side+89%+10%Centre+90%−4%Right side+15%−14%Open play+124%−1%Counter-attacks−8%+31%Set pieces−11%−23%Headers+70%+10%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

FalkirkCeltic

1.13xG2.32
1.37xG against0.91
51%Possession70%
12.0Shots17.3
12.5Shots against8.2
3.9Shots on target5.7
1.8Big chances4.0
19.8Touches in the opposition box36.4
399Passes656
76%Pass accuracy88%
4.8Corners7.0
47%Field tilt80%
34.6Final-third entries68.4
10.4Box entries21.6
12.3Passes per defensive action9.4

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Falkirk

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level461.121.59
Ahead181.080.63
Behind261.161.50

Celtic

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level432.250.78
Ahead322.371.04
Behind152.441.04

xG by period

Falkirk

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.210.162–1
16–300.190.283–6
31–450.190.372–9
46–600.200.186–2
61–750.170.207–4
76–900.160.183–5

Celtic

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.380.126–4
16–300.380.087–1
31–450.430.185–3
46–600.300.264–8
61–750.330.126–4
76–900.500.1410–1

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Falkirk

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTBain 21Adams 15Lissah 4Yeats 1Allan 12Neilson 6Lissah 2Henderson 21McCann 11Lissah 7Hart 2Spencer 21Cartwright 8Tait 12Yeats 1Wilson 11Miller 4Williams 2Miller 8Tait 5Williams 3Miller 8Williams 6Ross 4MacIver 9Graham 7Stewart 24-2-3-1 in every start

Celtic

GKRBCBCBLBCMCMCMRWSTLWSchmeichel 20Sinisalo 1Ralston 7Yang 6Donovan 4Trusty 11Carter-Vickers 7Murray 2Scales 17Tierney 4Tierney 9Saracchi 7McCowan 3Engels 13Nygren 9McCowan 5McGregor 20Hatate 12Bernardo 3Nygren 4Yang 3Maeda 3Kenny 8Maeda 6Iheanacho 3Maeda 8Tounekti 7Yang 34-3-3 in 16 of 21 starts

Formations: 4-3-3 (16), 3-4-2-1 (4), 3-4-3 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
29 October 2025Celtic4–0FalkirkxG 4.29–0.47

1 league meeting since 2020/21: Falkirk won 0, Celtic won 1, and 0 were drawn. Goals 0–4 and xG 0.47–4.29 per game.

Key players

Falkirk

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
MacIver9661310.410.12
Graham7714400.460.07
Miller201,591440.230.21
Wilson11876110.230.15

Celtic

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Kenny8677420.900.06
Nygren131,196930.560.30
Maeda171,488750.560.19
Forrest2475100.270.34

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.