Digressive Celts

Matches › 2024/25

Kilmarnock 0–2 Celtic

Sunday 10 November 2024, 15:00 · The BBSP Stadium Rugby Park · Round 12 · Half-time 0–1 · Referee Nick Walsh · Attendance 8,657

Celtic McGregor 45+4', Kühn 71'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

KilmarnockCeltic
Goals02
xG2.222.12
Expected Points1.411.33

Kilmarnock 38%Draw 26%Celtic 36%

Most likely score 2–2, 13%. Final score 0–2, 3%.

Celtic goalsKilmarnock goals0123456+0123456+2%3%2%6%9%6%2%1%7%7%2%5%9%6%2%3%4%3%1%13%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

01230153045607590HTCameron on for Vassell, 46'McKenzie on for Watson and Murray on for Kennedy, 75'Anderson on for Watkins, 76'Mackay-Steven on for Donnelly, 86'Bernardo on for Idah and Furuhashi on for Engels, 63'Ralston on for Johnston, 73'Forrest on for Kühn, 74'McCowan on for Hatate, 85'McGregor 45+4'Kühn 71'Kilmarnock 2.22Celtic 2.1201230153045607590HTCameron on for Vassell, 46'McKenzie on for Watson and Murray on for Kennedy, 75'Anderson on for Watkins, 76'Mackay-Steven on for Donnelly, 86'Bernardo on for Idah and Furuhashi on for Engels, 63'Ralston on for Johnston, 73'Forrest on for Kühn, 74'McCowan on for Hatate, 85'McGregor 45+4'Kühn 71'2.222.12KilmarnockCeltic

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

KilmarnockCeltic

2.22 +0.89xG2.12 −0.56
0.85 −0.23xG on target2.27 −0.56
18 +5Shots10 −12
6 +3.0Shots on target6 −1.7
2 0.0Big chances3 −2.0
39 +21Touches in the opposition box22 −19
34% −8Possession66% −9
271 −32Passes552 −176
62% −5Pass accuracy83% −6
42% +3Field tilt58% −25
27 −5Final-third entries42 −37
16 +7.3Box entries14 −8.8
15.7 −0.4Passes per defensive action15.4 +7.1
6 +1.5Corners4 −5.4
23 +9Tackles11 −4
5 −3.4Interceptions3 −4.5
18 −12Clearances44 +29
4 +1.1Saves6 +4.2
14 +3.7Fouls10 +0.3
3 +1.6Offsides0 −1.4

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Kilmarnock

Watkins 36', 0.47 xGWatson 24', 0.41 xGVassell 43', 0.23 xGKennedy 65', 0.22 xGLyons 48', 0.14 xGDonnelly 50', 0.13 xGDonnelly 48', 0.10 xGWatkins 37', 0.09 xGWatkins 57', 0.08 xGCameron 61', 0.07 xGKennedy 57', 0.06 xGLyons 64', 0.05 xGWatkins 64', 0.04 xGNdaba 16', 0.03 xGVassell 30', 0.03 xGCameron 46', 0.03 xGNdaba 49', 0.03 xGWatson 45+5', 0.02 xG0%0.00 xGSix-yard box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals82%1.81 xGCentral box: 10 shots, 1.81 xG, 0 goals8%0.17 xGWide in the box: 4 shots, 0.17 xG, 0 goals9%0.20 xGEdge of the box: 3 shots, 0.20 xG, 0 goals1%0.03 xGFurther out: 1 shot, 0.03 xG, 0 goals

Celtic

Kühn 61', 0.80 xGIdah 5', 0.52 xGKühn 51', 0.17 xGFuruhashi 90+3', 0.16 xGMcCowan 90+4', 0.05 xGEngels 61', 0.04 xGIdah 29', 0.03 xGMcGregor 26', 0.02 xGKühn 71', 0.32 xG, goalMcGregor 45+4', 0.02 xG, goal0%0.00 xGSix-yard box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals78%1.65 xGCentral box: 4 shots, 1.65 xG, 0 goals15%0.32 xGWide in the box: 1 shot, 0.32 xG, 1 goal6%0.13 xGEdge of the box: 4 shots, 0.13 xG, 0 goals1%0.02 xGFurther out: 1 shot, 0.02 xG, 1 goal

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

KilmarnockCeltic

1.69 15 shots, 0 goalsOpen play0.94 5 shots, 2 goals
0.41 1 shot, 0 goalsCounter-attacks1.17 4 shots, 0 goals
0.12 2 shots, 0 goalsSet pieces0.02 1 shot, 0 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
49 min (49%) · Kilmarnock 1.25, Celtic 0.59 xG
Celtic ahead
50 min (51%) · Kilmarnock 0.96, Celtic 1.53 xG

Line-ups

2054368221210923McCrorieMayoWrightNdabaDeasLyonsDonnellyWatsonKennedyVassellWatkinsYellow cardYellow card86'75'75'46'76'Kilmarnock 4-4-2Derek McInnes1265327424110938SchmeichelJohnstonTrustyScalesTaylorEngelsMcGregorHatateKühnIdahMaedaYellow cardGoalYellow cardGoalYellow card73'63'85'74'63'Celtic 4-3-3Brendan Rodgers

Kilmarnock substitutes

  • 46' Cameron for Vassell
  • 75' Murray for Kennedy · yellow card 88'
  • 75' McKenzie for Watson
  • 76' Anderson for Watkins
  • 86' Mackay-Steven for Donnelly

Celtic substitutes

  • 63' Bernardo for Idah
  • 63' Furuhashi for Engels
  • 73' Ralston for Johnston
  • 74' Forrest for Kühn
  • 85' McCowan for Hatate

Players

Kilmarnock

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
McCrorieGK900.000.0100.0761
MayoRB900.000.0400.12119
Wright CB900.000.0100.0559
NdabaCB900.060.020−0.0255
DeasLB900.000.0510.1067
LyonsRM900.180.0630.1664
Donnelly CM860.230.3810.0833
WatsonCM750.430.0510.0533
KennedyLM750.280.2830.3751
VassellST460.260.2110.1810
WatkinsST760.680.0110.0123
CameronFW440.100.031−0.0621
Murray MF150.000.0000.0100
McKenzieMF150.000.0000.0001
AndersonFW140.000.000−0.0100
Mackay-StevenDF40.000.0000.0001

Celtic

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
SchmeichelGK900.000.0000.0463
JohnstonRB7310.000.0410.0651
Trusty CB900.000.0100.06412
ScalesCB900.000.0100.06416
TaylorLB900.000.0520.0363
EngelsCM630.040.4400.2151
McGregorCM9010.030.1000.0728
Hatate CM850.000.0200.0566
KühnRW74111.280.0520.2473
IdahST630.550.2920.0923
Maeda LW900.000.2210.2464
BernardoMF270.000.0200.0712
FuruhashiFW270.160.0000.0710
RalstonDF170.000.0000.0112
ForrestFW160.000.0100.0230
McCowanMF50.050.0210.0510

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Kilmarnock

McCrorie and Vassell: 3 passesWright and Ndaba: 3 passesWright and Lyons: 3 passesDeas and Kennedy: 3 passesDeas and Watkins: 3 passesMayo and Watson: 3 passesWatson and Watkins: 3 passesDonnelly and Vassell: 3 passesDeas and Ndaba: 4 passesMayo and Ndaba: 4 passesLyons and Watson: 4 passesLyons and Vassell: 4 passesWatson and Vassell: 5 passesMayo and Lyons: 7 passesMcCrorie: 5 completed passesWright: 9 completed passesDeas: 8 completed passesMayo: 10 completed passesNdaba: 11 completed passesLyons: 11 completed passesWatson: 9 completed passesDonnelly: 8 completed passesKennedy: 5 completed passesWatkins: 3 completed passesVassell: 7 completed passes2046538122210239McCrorieWrightDeasMayoNdabaLyonsWatsonDonnellyKennedyWatkinsVassellStarters until 46' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Celtic

Johnston and Hatate: 7 passesScales and Maeda: 7 passesTaylor and Engels: 7 passesJohnston and Engels: 8 passesTrusty and Hatate: 8 passesTrusty and McGregor: 8 passesEngels and Idah: 8 passesHatate and Maeda: 8 passesMcGregor and Kühn: 8 passesScales and Hatate: 9 passesTrusty and Taylor: 9 passesEngels and Kühn: 9 passesJohnston and Kühn: 10 passesScales and McGregor: 10 passesTaylor and Hatate: 10 passesTaylor and Idah: 10 passesHatate and McGregor: 10 passesJohnston and McGregor: 12 passesSchmeichel and Trusty: 15 passesSchmeichel and Scales: 19 passesScales and Taylor: 19 passesScales and Trusty: 24 passesJohnston and Trusty: 32 passesSchmeichel: 35 completed passesJohnston: 47 completed passesScales: 52 completed passesTrusty: 58 completed passesTaylor: 45 completed passesEngels: 21 completed passesHatate: 29 completed passesMcGregor: 30 completed passesKühn: 18 completed passesIdah: 16 completed passesMaeda: 12 completed passes1256327414210938SchmeichelJohnstonScalesTrustyTaylorEngelsHatateMcGregorKühnIdahMaedaStarters until 63' · lines join pairs with 7+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Kilmarnock

FromToPasses
DeasNdaba8
NdabaMayo6
MayoLyons6
WrightDeas4
WrightLyons4

Celtic

FromToPasses
TrustyJohnston25
TaylorScales18
ScalesSchmeichel16
TrustyScales15
ScalesTrusty15

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Kilmarnock

4+0.24−4.86−1.63−3.16+1.65−2.49+3.77+1.56−0.63−2.31−3.34+1.14−0.63−1.37+3.98+4.33+1.13−1.28+4.53+1.42+0.32+1.13+2.34+1.54+3.53+2.51+0.73+2.60−0.610−8.4FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 11 matches

Celtic

7+4.37+4.627+18.412+7.98+5.74−1.03−2.44−0.87−0.311+3.94−0.32−1.53+0.14−0.94−2.30−3.73−1.61−0.71−2.21−3.31−1.50−2.21−0.71−2.40−2.20−1.70−0.81−0.20−1.10−1.3FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 10 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Kilmarnock

0.030.020.050.010.010.030.090.040.02−0.01−0.010.030.030.020.070.010.080.100.070.10−0.060.110.020.28LessMore

Celtic

0.010.030.010.060.010.010.020.010.080.040.020.020.060.040.010.090.050.010.11−0.030.010.020.010.040.10−0.020.250.27LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.34AttackKilmarnock1.22 → 1.23Celtic2.44 → 2.40Defence (lower is better)Kilmarnock1.38 → 1.37Celtic0.73 → 0.74

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Kilmarnock
Top six47%44%−3
11th5%5%0
Bottom2%3%+1
Celtic
Title97%98%+1
St. Mirren
Top six34%35%+1
11th8%9%+1
Bottom5%5%0
Rangers
Title3%2%−1

From the forecast before the match (10 November 2024): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

KilmarnockCeltic
Expected goals0.782.26
Win11%71%
Expected Points0.512.30
Clean sheet10%46%

Kilmarnock 11%Draw 19%Celtic 71%

Most likely score 0–2, 12%. Both sides score 49%.

Celtic goalsKilmarnock goals0123456+0123456+5%5%2%1%3%7%4%2%1%1%3%4%3%2%1%10%12%9%9%10%

From the forecast as it stood on 10 November 2024: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowKilmarnock winDrawCeltic win
Kilmarnock
Top six47%62%51%44%
11th5%2%4%5%
Bottom2%1%2%3%
Celtic
Title97%94%96%98%
St. Mirren
Top six34%30%33%35%
11th8%10%8%9%
Bottom5%6%5%5%
Rangers
Title3%5%4%2%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Kilmarnock

  1. L2–33 NovDundee FC (A)xG 1.04–1.58
  2. W2–130 OctHearts (A)xG 1.73–1.11
  3. L1–226 OctRoss County (A)xG 0.72–0.82
  4. W1–020 OctRangers (H)xG 0.63–1.14
  5. W3–25 OctDundee FC (A)xG 2.72–0.62
  6. D3–328 SepDundee United (H)xG 2.31–2.73

Celtic

  1. W2–030 OctDundee FC (H)xG 4.62–0.16
  2. W3–027 OctMotherwell (A)xG 1.45–0.71
  3. D2–219 OctAberdeen (H)xG 3.21–1.10
  4. W2–16 OctRoss County (A)xG 1.51–0.97
  5. W6–028 SepSt. Johnstone (A)xG 3.38–0.32
  6. W2–014 SepHearts (H)xG 2.88–0.65

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

KilmarnockCeltic
Position8th2nd
Played1110
Won, drawn, lost3–⁠3–⁠59–⁠1–⁠0
Points12 (1.09 per game)28 (2.80 per game)
Expected Points per game1.252.51
Goals15–⁠2329–⁠3
xG per game1.33–⁠1.502.68–⁠0.55
Home: points, xG per game1.25, 1.80–⁠1.522.60, 3.07–⁠0.65
Away: points, xG per game1.00, 1.06–⁠1.493.00, 2.28–⁠0.45
ManagerDerek McInnes (87)Brendan Rodgers (48)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.34AttackKilmarnock1.22, 6thCeltic2.44, 1stDefence (lower is better)Kilmarnock1.38, 6thCeltic0.73, 1st

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.02.5SepOctNovKilmarnock attack: 1.22Celtic attack: 2.442.441.22CelticKilmarnockDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.02.5SepOctNovKilmarnock defence: 1.38Celtic defence: 0.731.380.73

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

KilmarnockCeltic
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−12%+16%+158%−54%
Counter-attacks−84%−96%+124%−86%
Set pieces+56%+8%−19%−71%
Penalties−47%+59%+17%−42%
Headers+26%−30%−7%−73%
Left side−8%−9%+129%−54%
Centre+9%+7%+87%−63%
Right side−4%+13%+118%−68%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Kilmarnock attacking

Kilmarnock createdCeltic concededLeft side−8%−68%Centre+9%−63%Right side−4%−54%Open play−12%−54%Counter-attacks−84%−86%Set pieces+56%−71%Headers+26%−73%

Celtic attacking

Celtic createdKilmarnock concededLeft side+129%+13%Centre+87%+7%Right side+118%−9%Open play+158%+16%Counter-attacks+124%−96%Set pieces−19%+8%Headers−7%−30%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

KilmarnockCeltic

1.33xG2.68
1.50xG against0.55
42%Possession75%
12.7Shots22.3
15.6Shots against6.4
3.0Shots on target7.7
2.0Big chances5.0
18.4Touches in the opposition box41.4
303Passes728
67%Pass accuracy89%
4.5Corners9.4
39%Field tilt84%
31.8Final-third entries78.7
8.7Box entries22.8
16.1Passes per defensive action8.3

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Kilmarnock

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level421.231.39
Ahead111.222.39
Behind381.471.38

Celtic

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level323.480.60
Ahead542.280.54
Behind31.390.19

xG by period

Kilmarnock

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.170.161–2
16–300.130.241–4
31–450.190.332–5
46–600.120.263–3
61–750.320.183–2
76–900.400.335–7

Celtic

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.450.072–0
16–300.350.076–0
31–450.550.136–1
46–600.530.115–2
61–750.330.054–0
76–900.470.136–0

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Kilmarnock

GKRBCBCBLBRMCMCMLMSTSTMcCrorie 7O'Hara 4Mayo 4Lyons 2Armstrong 2Mayo 5Deas 5Wright 2Findlay 9Ndaba 1Ndaba 6Lyons 3Deas 1Armstrong 8Watson 1Wright 1Watson 6Watkins 1Burroughs 1Lyons 4Donnelly 4Polworth 4Kennedy 9Ndaba 1Murray 1Vassell 10Cameron 1Watkins 6Anderson 2Watson 14-4-2 in 6 of 11 starts

Formations: 4-4-2 (6), 3-5-2 (1), 3-4-2-1 (1), 4-1-4-1 (1), 3-4-1-2 (1), 4-3-3 (1)

Celtic

GKRBCBCBLBCMCMCMRWSTLWSchmeichel 10Johnston 9Ralston 1Carter-Vickers 6Trusty 5Scales 9Taylor 7Valle 3Bernardo 5Engels 5O'Riley 2McGregor 8Hatate 8McCowan 2Kühn 7Forrest 2Yang 1Furuhashi 8Idah 2Maeda 7Forrest 2Palma 14-3-3 in 9 of 10 starts

Formations: 4-3-3 (9), 4-4-1-1 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
4 August 2024Celtic4–0KilmarnockxG 3.11–0.20
15 May 2024Kilmarnock0–5CelticxG 0.75–4.60
17 February 2024Celtic1–1KilmarnockxG 1.49–0.95
10 December 2023Kilmarnock2–1CelticxG 2.06–1.68
7 October 2023Celtic3–1KilmarnockxG 2.75–1.54
16 April 2023Kilmarnock1–4CelticxG 1.73–2.56

11 league meetings since 2020/21: Kilmarnock won 1, Celtic won 8, and 2 were drawn. Goals 6–32 and xG 1.07–2.52 per game.

Key players

Kilmarnock

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Kennedy10873410.170.32
Watkins7625300.440.05
Vassell10765100.320.07
Armstrong10778030.060.17

Celtic

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Furuhashi8678431.000.06
Kühn7580350.580.32
Johnston9807420.130.41
Hatate8661300.300.20

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.