Digressive Celts

Matches › 2023/24

Kilmarnock 0–5 Celtic

Wednesday 15 May 2024, 19:30 · The BBSP Stadium Rugby Park · Round 37 · Half-time 0–3 · Referee Don Robertson · Attendance 9,595

Celtic Idah 5', Maeda 12', Forrest 35', O'Riley 51', 71'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

KilmarnockCeltic
Goals05
xG0.754.60
Expected Points0.042.93

Kilmarnock 1%Draw 2%Celtic 97%

Most likely score 0–6+, 13%. Final score 0–5, 10%.

Celtic goalsKilmarnock goals0123456+0123456+3%8%3%6%9%1%2%3%3%4%11%10%13%9%10%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

02460153045607590HTPolworth on for Vassell and Wright on for Ndaba, 46'Murray on for Kennedy, 74'van Veen on for Watkins and McKenzie on for Watson, 82'Kühn on for Forrest, 61'Palma on for Maeda and Furuhashi on for Idah, 62'Iwata on for McGregor and Bernardo on for O'Riley, 74'Idah 5'Maeda 12'Forrest 35'O'Riley 51'O'Riley 71'Celtic 4.60Kilmarnock 0.7502460153045607590HTPolworth on for Vassell and Wright on for Ndaba, 46'Murray on for Kennedy, 74'van Veen on for Watkins and McKenzie on for Watson, 82'Kühn on for Forrest, 61'Palma on for Maeda and Furuhashi on for Idah, 62'Iwata on for McGregor and Bernardo on for O'Riley, 74'Idah 5'Maeda 12'Forrest 35'O'Riley 51'O'Riley 71'4.600.75KilmarnockCeltic

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

KilmarnockCeltic

0.75 −0.53xG4.60 +1.94
0.21 −1.24xG on target5.13 +2.44
12 −1Shots30 +10
2 −2.0Shots on target12 +4.4
1 −1.1Big chances5 +0.9
17 −5Touches in the opposition box43 −1
25% −21Possession75% +6
237 −92Passes725 +78
64% 0Pass accuracy88% +3
21% −27Field tilt79% 0
19 −13Final-third entries52 −23
9 −3Box entries23 −1
28.2 +13Passes per defensive action8.8 −1
2 −4.1Corners9 −0.5
15 +1Tackles15 −1
6 −0.9Interceptions5 −0.2
22 −1Clearances17 +2
7 +3.8Saves2 +0.2
7 −5Fouls12 +2
2 +0.9Offsides0 −1.9

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Kilmarnock

McKenzie 88', 0.14 xGDonnelly 2', 0.12 xGDonnelly 22', 0.09 xGDeas 59', 0.08 xGVassell 24', 0.07 xGKennedy 48', 0.07 xGDeas 79', 0.05 xGArmstrong 72', 0.04 xGPolworth 88', 0.04 xGDonnelly 8', 0.02 xGKennedy 25', 0.02 xGArmstrong 83', 0.02 xG11%0.08 xGSix-yard box: 1 shot, 0.08 xG, 0 goals71%0.53 xGCentral box: 6 shots, 0.53 xG, 0 goals8%0.06 xGWide in the box: 2 shots, 0.06 xG, 0 goals8%0.06 xGEdge of the box: 2 shots, 0.06 xG, 0 goals3%0.02 xGFurther out: 1 shot, 0.02 xG, 0 goals

Celtic

Idah 45+1', 0.26 xGFuruhashi 90+5', 0.25 xGScales 39', 0.22 xGFuruhashi 69', 0.21 xGFuruhashi 66', 0.17 xGFuruhashi 88', 0.16 xGPalma 90+5', 0.08 xGForrest 10', 0.07 xGScales 40', 0.06 xGIdah 17', 0.05 xGO'Riley 38', 0.05 xGO'Riley 41', 0.05 xGHatate 45+1', 0.05 xGFuruhashi 70', 0.05 xGIdah 39', 0.04 xGMcGregor 40', 0.04 xGHatate 51', 0.04 xGForrest 20', 0.03 xGHatate 27', 0.03 xGScales 47', 0.03 xGIdah 50', 0.03 xGForrest 4', 0.02 xGScales 27', 0.02 xGO'Riley 51', 0.02 xGJohnston 89', 0.02 xGMaeda 12', 0.82 xG, goalIdah 5', 0.68 xG, goalForrest 35', 0.64 xG, goalO'Riley 71', 0.38 xG, goalO'Riley 51', 0.05 xG, goal61%2.82 xGSix-yard box: 6 shots, 2.82 xG, 3 goals23%1.05 xGCentral box: 7 shots, 1.05 xG, 1 goal9%0.42 xGWide in the box: 7 shots, 0.42 xG, 0 goals6%0.27 xGEdge of the box: 8 shots, 0.27 xG, 1 goal1%0.03 xGFurther out: 2 shots, 0.03 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

KilmarnockCeltic

0.37 6 shots, 0 goalsOpen play4.07 21 shots, 4 goals
0.04 1 shot, 0 goalsCounter-attacks0.00 0 shots, 0 goals
0.35 5 shots, 0 goalsSet pieces0.53 9 shots, 1 goal

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
5 min (5%) · Kilmarnock 0.12, Celtic 0.69 xG
Celtic ahead
91 min (95%) · Kilmarnock 0.63, Celtic 3.90 xG

Line-ups

205617311221210239O'HaraMayoDeasFindlayNdabaArmstrongDonnellyWatsonKennedyWatkinsVassellYellow cardYellow card46'82'74'82'46'Kilmarnock 4-4-2Derek McInnes12205333424149938HartJohnstonCarter-VickersScalesTaylorO'RileyMcGregorHatateForrestIdahMaedaGoalGoalGoalGoalGoal74'74'61'62'62'Celtic 4-3-3Brendan Rodgers

Kilmarnock substitutes

  • 46' Wright for Ndaba
  • 46' Polworth for Vassell
  • 74' Murray for Kennedy
  • 82' McKenzie for Watson
  • 82' van Veen for Watkins

Celtic substitutes

  • 61' Kühn for Forrest · 1 assist
  • 62' Furuhashi for Idah
  • 62' Palma for Maeda
  • 74' Bernardo for O'Riley
  • 74' Iwata for McGregor

Players

Kilmarnock

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
O'HaraGK900.000.0100.0332
MayoRB900.000.0000.0109
Deas CB900.120.0100.0668
FindlayCB900.000.0210.0623
NdabaLB460.000.0100.0114
ArmstrongRM900.060.0610.2272
Donnelly CM900.230.0010.0029
WatsonCM820.000.000−0.0204
KennedyLM740.090.0810.0732
WatkinsST820.000.0010.0013
VassellST460.070.0110.0211
WrightDF440.000.1210.0605
PolworthMF440.040.0100.0633
MurrayMF160.000.0420.1140
McKenzieMF80.140.0000.0000
van VeenFW80.000.0000.0000

Celtic

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
HartGK900.000.0000.0110
JohnstonRB9010.020.061−0.1083
Carter-VickersCB900.000.0100.14137
ScalesCB900.320.0300.18187
TaylorLB900.000.1200.2468
O'RileyCM74210.551.0170.6571
McGregorCM740.040.0910.0772
HatateCM900.120.7740.2371
ForrestRW61110.760.2830.1832
IdahST6211.050.0210.0452
MaedaLW62110.820.3820.2043
KühnFW2910.000.1420.0601
FuruhashiFW280.830.0100.0010
PalmaFW280.080.4520.3533
BernardoMF160.000.0610.1030
IwataMF160.000.000−0.0200

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Kilmarnock

Mayo and Watson: 3 passesDeas and Watson: 3 passesFindlay and Ndaba: 3 passesFindlay and Donnelly: 3 passesArmstrong and Watkins: 3 passesWatson and Kennedy: 3 passesNdaba and Donnelly: 4 passesNdaba and Vassell: 4 passesDonnelly and Watkins: 4 passesNdaba and Kennedy: 5 passesWatson and Donnelly: 5 passesMayo and Armstrong: 6 passesO'Hara: 3 completed passesMayo: 11 completed passesDeas: 8 completed passesFindlay: 8 completed passesNdaba: 12 completed passesArmstrong: 8 completed passesWatson: 10 completed passesDonnelly: 11 completed passesKennedy: 6 completed passesWatkins: 8 completed passesVassell: 3 completed passes205617311122210239O'HaraMayoDeasFindlayNdabaArmstrongWatsonDonnellyKennedyWatkinsVassellStarters until 46' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Celtic

Johnston and O'Riley: 7 passesCarter-Vickers and Idah: 7 passesTaylor and Hatate: 7 passesO'Riley and McGregor: 7 passesJohnston and Hatate: 8 passesCarter-Vickers and Forrest: 8 passesTaylor and Maeda: 8 passesHatate and McGregor: 8 passesMcGregor and Idah: 8 passesScales and O'Riley: 10 passesO'Riley and Hatate: 10 passesScales and Hatate: 11 passesTaylor and McGregor: 11 passesJohnston and McGregor: 13 passesJohnston and Forrest: 13 passesHart and Scales: 14 passesHart and Carter-Vickers: 14 passesCarter-Vickers and Taylor: 14 passesCarter-Vickers and O'Riley: 14 passesCarter-Vickers and McGregor: 14 passesScales and McGregor: 17 passesScales and Taylor: 20 passesO'Riley and Forrest: 28 passesJohnston and Carter-Vickers: 33 passesScales and Carter-Vickers: 43 passesHart: 20 completed passesJohnston: 42 completed passesScales: 69 completed passesCarter-Vickers: 77 completed passesTaylor: 39 completed passesO'Riley: 42 completed passesHatate: 28 completed passesMcGregor: 46 completed passesForrest: 32 completed passesIdah: 17 completed passesMaeda: 12 completed passes12520333414249938HartJohnstonScalesCarter-VickersTaylorO'RileyHatateMcGregorForrestIdahMaedaStarters until 61' · lines join pairs with 7+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Kilmarnock

FromToPasses
DeasDonnelly7
MayoArmstrong5
WatsonDonnelly5
FindlayO'Hara5
ArmstrongPolworth5

Celtic

FromToPasses
ScalesCarter-Vickers35
Carter-VickersScales33
Carter-VickersJohnston31
JohnstonCarter-Vickers25
ScalesTaylor20

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Kilmarnock

3−1.35−2.119+6.27−1.12−2.33−3.64−3.010+4.14−2.97+0.87+2.13−0.88+3.63−2.06+0.94+0.43+0.30−3.25+0.72−0.91−0.80−0.82+0.42−0.61+0.10−0.40−0.80−0.21+0.51−5.3FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 36 matches

Celtic

6+2.94−0.212+3.41−4.610+5.43−2.33−1.43−1.28+1.816+8.94−0.94+0.11−2.62−3.88+0.84−0.330.02−0.34+0.810+4.73−0.50−2.91−0.92−0.70−3.60−1.00−0.62+1.40−0.61−0.3FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 36 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Kilmarnock

0.010.010.010.020.010.010.010.010.05−0.010.020.05−0.020.030.030.010.080.090.090.17LessMore

Celtic

0.010.010.010.010.020.020.020.060.020.020.040.050.040.010.070.040.090.040.200.280.070.070.010.050.170.400.51LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.31AttackKilmarnock1.25 → 1.21Celtic2.36 → 2.43Defence (lower is better)Kilmarnock1.22 → 1.29Celtic0.74 → 0.73

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Celtic
Title>99%>99%0

From the forecast before the match (15 May 2024): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

KilmarnockCeltic
Expected goals0.841.98
Win15%64%
Expected Points0.662.13
Clean sheet14%43%

Kilmarnock 15%Draw 22%Celtic 64%

Most likely score 0–2, 12%. Both sides score 49%.

Celtic goalsKilmarnock goals0123456+0123456+6%8%4%2%5%6%3%1%2%4%4%3%1%1%1%11%12%10%10%

From the forecast as it stood on 15 May 2024: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowKilmarnock winDrawCeltic win
Celtic
Title>99%99%>99%>99%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Kilmarnock

  1. W1–011 MaySt. Mirren (A)xG 1.44–0.85
  2. L1–45 MayRangers (A)xG 0.39–4.90
  3. D0–027 AprHearts (H)xG 0.89–1.95
  4. W2–013 AprSt. Johnstone (A)xG 3.51–1.22
  5. W1–06 AprRoss County (H)xG 0.98–0.47
  6. D1–130 MarHearts (A)xG 1.55–1.61

Celtic

  1. W2–111 MayRangers (H)xG 2.81–1.02
  2. W3–04 MayHearts (H)xG 2.78–0.43
  3. W2–128 AprDundee FC (A)xG 1.53–1.10
  4. W3–013 AprSt. Mirren (H)xG 3.33–0.18
  5. D3–37 AprRangers (A)xG 1.96–1.69
  6. W3–031 MarLivingston (A)xG 2.11–0.14

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

KilmarnockCeltic
Position4th1st
Played3636
Won, drawn, lost14–⁠13–⁠927–⁠6–⁠3
Points55 (1.53 per game)87 (2.42 per game)
Expected Points per game1.422.36
Goals45–⁠3887–⁠28
xG per game1.28–⁠1.232.66–⁠0.86
Home: points, xG per game1.94, 1.30–⁠0.932.50, 2.94–⁠0.70
Away: points, xG per game1.11, 1.27–⁠1.532.33, 2.37–⁠1.01
ManagerDerek McInnes (74)Brendan Rodgers (36)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.31AttackKilmarnock1.25, 6thCeltic2.36, 1stDefence (lower is better)Kilmarnock1.22, 4thCeltic0.74, 1st

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.02.5SepOctNovDecJanFebMarAprMayKilmarnock attack: 1.25Celtic attack: 2.362.361.25CelticKilmarnockDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.02.5SepOctNovDecJanFebMarAprMayKilmarnock defence: 1.22Celtic defence: 0.741.220.74

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

KilmarnockCeltic
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−20%−15%+107%−35%
Counter-attacks+13%−6%+98%−33%
Set pieces+23%+3%+29%−36%
Penalties−30%−30%+124%−72%
Headers+25%−16%+56%−20%
Left side−8%−22%+86%−21%
Centre−4%−7%+74%−38%
Right side−7%−1%+108%−43%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Kilmarnock attacking

Kilmarnock createdCeltic concededLeft side−8%−43%Centre−4%−38%Right side−7%−21%Open play−20%−35%Counter-attacks+13%−33%Set pieces+23%−36%Headers+25%−20%

Celtic attacking

Celtic createdKilmarnock concededLeft side+86%−1%Centre+74%−7%Right side+108%−22%Open play+107%−15%Counter-attacks+98%−6%Set pieces+29%+3%Headers+56%−16%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

KilmarnockCeltic

1.28xG2.66
1.23xG against0.86
46%Possession69%
13.0Shots19.9
12.9Shots against7.9
4.0Shots on target7.6
2.1Big chances4.1
22.2Touches in the opposition box44.2
330Passes647
64%Pass accuracy85%
6.1Corners9.5
49%Field tilt79%
32.4Final-third entries75.3
11.8Box entries24.2
14.9Passes per defensive action10.1

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Kilmarnock

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level461.101.09
Ahead211.381.47
Behind231.551.30

Celtic

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level382.600.77
Ahead462.770.98
Behind52.080.40

xG by period

Kilmarnock

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.130.145–5
16–300.190.187–4
31–450.230.265–12
46–600.220.096–5
61–750.200.2611–6
76–900.310.3111–6

Celtic

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.350.0912–2
16–300.420.0813–2
31–450.360.1913–4
46–600.480.1315–5
61–750.310.159–5
76–900.730.2025–10

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Kilmarnock

GKRBCBCBLBRMCMCMLMSTSTDennis 35O'Hara 1Mayo 22Wright 10Armstrong 2Wright 15Deas 13Mayo 11Findlay 33Ndaba 10Deas 8Watson 7Armstrong 33Mayo 2Watson 1Lyons 15Watson 14Donnelly 13Polworth 17Magennis 5McKenzie 3Kennedy 24Ndaba 8Deas 2Watkins 31Kennedy 4Vassell 31Donnelly 2Polworth 24-4-2 in 14 of 36 starts

Formations: 4-4-2 (14), 3-5-2 (13), 4-1-4-1 (2), 4-4-1-1 (1), 3-4-1-2 (1), 4-5-1 (1), 4-2-3-1 (1), 3-4-3 (1), 3-1-4-2 (1), 5-3-2 (1)

Celtic

GKRBCBCBLBCMCMCMRWSTLWHart 35Bain 1Johnston 31Ralston 5Carter-Vickers 23Nawrocki 6Welsh 4Scales 32Taylor 33Bernabei 3O'Riley 35Maeda 1McGregor 31Iwata 9Bernardo 11Hatate 10Turnbull 9Maeda 9Kühn 8Yang 7Furuhashi 29Idah 4Oh 3Palma 17Maeda 14Yang 34-3-3 in 35 of 36 starts

Formations: 4-3-3 (35), 4-4-1-1 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
17 February 2024Celtic1–1KilmarnockxG 1.49–0.95
10 December 2023Kilmarnock2–1CelticxG 2.06–1.68
7 October 2023Celtic3–1KilmarnockxG 2.75–1.54
16 April 2023Kilmarnock1–4CelticxG 1.73–2.56
7 January 2023Celtic2–0KilmarnockxG 3.48–0.08
14 August 2022Kilmarnock0–5CelticxG 0.69–3.34

9 league meetings since 2020/21: Kilmarnock won 1, Celtic won 6, and 2 were drawn. Goals 6–23 and xG 1.20–2.22 per game.

Key players

Kilmarnock

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Armstrong362,9606100.240.28
Vassell312,547930.280.06
Kennedy292,683330.160.16
Watkins322,643920.250.05

Celtic

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Idah4520721.050.10
Forrest5593500.820.31
Turnbull9676700.710.39
Oh3610500.940.05

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.