Digressive Celts

Matches › 2024/25

Celtic 5–1 Kilmarnock

Saturday 12 April 2025, 12:30 · Celtic Park · Round 33 · Half-time 4–1 · Referee John Beaton · Attendance 58,712

Celtic Hatate 9', 24', Maeda 11', Carter-Vickers 21', Ralston 90+3'

Kilmarnock Armstrong 29'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

CelticKilmarnock
Goals51
xG1.810.29
Expected Points2.620.23

Celtic 82%Draw 15%Kilmarnock 3%

Most likely score 2–0, 28%. Final score 5–1, <1%.

Kilmarnock goalsCeltic goals0123456+0123456+6%2%9%10%12%4%3%1%23%28%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

00.511.520153045607590HTJota on for Idah and Kühn on for Forrest, 60'Schlupp on for Taylor, 61'Ralston on for Johnston, 76'McCowan on for Maeda, 81'Watkins on for Wales and Deas on for Armstrong, 46'Kennedy on for Murray, 78'Ramsay on for Watson, 88'Hatate 9'Maeda 11'Carter-Vickers 21'Hatate 24'Ralston 90+3'Armstrong 29'Celtic 1.81Kilmarnock 0.2900.511.520153045607590HTJota on for Idah and Kühn on for Forrest, 60'Schlupp on for Taylor, 61'Ralston on for Johnston, 76'McCowan on for Maeda, 81'Watkins on for Wales and Deas on for Armstrong, 46'Kennedy on for Murray, 78'Ramsay on for Watson, 88'Hatate 9'Maeda 11'Carter-Vickers 21'Hatate 24'Ralston 90+3'Armstrong 29'1.810.29CelticKilmarnock

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

CelticKilmarnock

1.81 −0.80xG0.29 −1.08
3.29 +0.43xG on target0.28 −0.93
14 −5Shots5 −8
6 −1.3Shots on target1 −3.0
2 −2.5Big chances1 −1.0
33 −5Touches in the opposition box9 −14
88% +13Possession12% −34
1,022 +303Passes145 −173
93% +4Pass accuracy50% −17
95% +12Field tilt5% −41
119 +44Final-third entries8 −24
24 +2Box entries2 −8
6.1 −3.1Passes per defensive action36.4 +22.1
10 +1.2Corners0 −5.8
7 −7Tackles13 −2
3 −2.4Interceptions12 +3.2
21 +1Clearances32 −4
0 −2.3Saves1 −1.5
9 −0.4Fouls9 −1.2
1 −0.8Offsides0 −1.3

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Celtic

Kühn 62', 0.08 xGEngels 70', 0.08 xGJota 79', 0.07 xGForrest 13', 0.04 xGForrest 6', 0.03 xGScales 15', 0.03 xGEngels 77', 0.03 xGKühn 85', 0.03 xGEngels 77', 0.02 xGMaeda 11', 0.72 xG, goalHatate 24', 0.53 xG, goalRalston 90+3', 0.10 xG, goalHatate 9', 0.02 xG, goalCarter-Vickers 21', 0.02 xG, goal40%0.72 xGSix-yard box: 1 shot, 0.72 xG, 1 goal33%0.60 xGCentral box: 2 shots, 0.60 xG, 1 goal11%0.20 xGWide in the box: 3 shots, 0.20 xG, 1 goal16%0.28 xGEdge of the box: 8 shots, 0.28 xG, 2 goals0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Kilmarnock

Murray 67', 0.21 xGLyons 54', 0.03 xGDonnelly 89', 0.02 xGNdaba 90+1', 0.02 xGArmstrong 29', 0.01 xG, goal0%0.00 xGSix-yard box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals72%0.21 xGCentral box: 1 shot, 0.21 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGWide in the box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals7%0.02 xGEdge of the box: 1 shot, 0.02 xG, 0 goals21%0.06 xGFurther out: 3 shots, 0.06 xG, 1 goal

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

CelticKilmarnock

1.65 10 shots, 5 goalsOpen play0.05 2 shots, 0 goals
0.16 4 shots, 0 goalsSet pieces0.24 3 shots, 1 goal

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
9 min (10%) · Celtic 0.05, Kilmarnock 0.00 xG
Celtic ahead
85 min (90%) · Celtic 1.75, Kilmarnock 0.28 xG

Line-ups

122205327424149938SinisaloJohnstonCarter-VickersScalesTaylorEngelsMcGregorHatateForrestIdahMaedaGoalGoalGoalGoal76'61'60'60'81'Celtic 4-3-3Brendan Rodgers15417382211121524O'HaraMayoWrightFindlayNdabaLyonsDonnellyArmstrongWatsonMurrayWalesGoal46'88'78'46'Kilmarnock 4-2-3-1Derek McInnes

Celtic substitutes

  • 60' Jota for Idah
  • 60' Kühn for Forrest
  • 61' Schlupp for Taylor
  • 76' Ralston for Johnston · goal 90+3'
  • 81' McCowan for Maeda

Kilmarnock substitutes

  • 46' Deas for Armstrong
  • 46' Watkins for Wales
  • 78' Kennedy for Murray
  • 88' Ramsay for Watson

Players

Celtic

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
SinisaloGK900.000.0000.0101
JohnstonRB7610.000.3010.19132
Carter-VickersCB9010.020.1300.35136
ScalesCB9010.030.1210.35156
TaylorLB6110.000.081−0.0731
EngelsCM900.130.3620.0232
McGregorCM900.000.1720.1683
HatateCM90210.560.371−0.0351
ForrestRW600.070.1500.0550
IdahST600.000.030−0.1100
MaedaLW8110.720.0720.0683
JotaFW300.070.0700.0651
KühnFW300.110.0500.0721
SchluppDF290.000.021−0.0203
RalstonDF1410.100.0200.0021
McCowanMF90.000.010−0.0300

Kilmarnock

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
O'HaraGK900.000.0000.0112
MayoRB900.000.0000.00012
WrightCB900.000.0710.0828
FindlayCB900.000.0000.0008
NdabaLB900.020.0010.0006
LyonsDM900.030.0110.0123
DonnellyDM9010.020.0110.0008
ArmstrongRW4610.010.000−0.0102
WatsonAM880.000.0000.0003
MurrayLW780.210.0000.0236
WalesST460.000.000−0.0200
DeasDF440.000.0000.0003
WatkinsFW440.000.0100.0120
KennedyMF120.000.0000.0001
RamsayDF20.000.0000.0000

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Celtic

Johnston and Idah: 8 passesJohnston and Hatate: 9 passesMcGregor and Forrest: 9 passesTaylor and Hatate: 11 passesCarter-Vickers and Engels: 12 passesTaylor and Maeda: 12 passesJohnston and Engels: 13 passesCarter-Vickers and Hatate: 13 passesSinisalo and Scales: 14 passesEngels and McGregor: 14 passesEngels and Forrest: 16 passesCarter-Vickers and Forrest: 17 passesScales and Maeda: 20 passesHatate and McGregor: 20 passesSinisalo and Carter-Vickers: 22 passesJohnston and McGregor: 22 passesCarter-Vickers and Taylor: 25 passesScales and Hatate: 26 passesJohnston and Forrest: 31 passesScales and McGregor: 34 passesCarter-Vickers and McGregor: 37 passesTaylor and McGregor: 37 passesScales and Taylor: 43 passesJohnston and Carter-Vickers: 46 passesScales and Carter-Vickers: 52 passesSinisalo: 23 completed passesJohnston: 73 completed passesScales: 106 completed passesCarter-Vickers: 118 completed passesTaylor: 77 completed passesEngels: 35 completed passesHatate: 44 completed passesMcGregor: 96 completed passesForrest: 42 completed passesIdah: 15 completed passesMaeda: 23 completed passes122520327414249938SinisaloJohnstonScalesCarter-VickersTaylorEngelsHatateMcGregorForrestIdahMaedaStarters until 60' · lines join pairs with 8+ passes

Kilmarnock

Armstrong and Donnelly: 4 passesMayo and Armstrong: 9 passesO'Hara: 2 completed passesMayo: 5 completed passesWright: 3 completed passesFindlay: 2 completed passesNdaba: 3 completed passesArmstrong: 7 completed passesWatson: 2 completed passesDonnelly: 6 completed passesLyons: 0 completed passesMurray: 2 completed passesWales: 7 completed passes15417311122281524O'HaraMayoWrightFindlayNdabaArmstrongWatsonDonnellyLyonsMurrayWalesStarters until 46' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Celtic

FromToPasses
Carter-VickersJohnston41
Carter-VickersScales36
McGregorCarter-Vickers34
ScalesCarter-Vickers31
Carter-VickersMcGregor27

Kilmarnock

FromToPasses
ArmstrongMayo6
WatkinsLyons4
MayoArmstrong3
DonnellyArmstrong3
O'HaraWatkins3

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Celtic

1−2.44+0.83−1.76+2.33−2.14−0.56−0.370.02−1.95+1.21−2.13−2.54−1.51−2.73+1.02−1.84+0.10−2.520.02+0.73+0.30−2.60−1.11+0.510.00−0.70−1.06−3.12−2.90−3.4FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 32 matches

Kilmarnock

5+0.416+8.416−0.312+4.62−2.92−4.110+2.87+0.17+0.57+0.51−4.43−1.21−2.61−3.64−0.91−2.22−1.81−1.33−0.61−3.23+1.02+0.30−0.82+0.50−2.60−0.61+0.60−0.80−0.42+1.2FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 32 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Celtic

0.010.010.010.010.020.010.010.010.020.120.020.080.030.040.01−0.04−0.140.070.110.040.04−0.11−0.070.040.180.210.200.16LessMore

Kilmarnock

0.020.01−0.01−0.010.010.020.01−0.01−0.01−0.010.010.020.020.05LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.35AttackCeltic2.42 → 2.43Kilmarnock1.24 → 1.21Defence (lower is better)Celtic0.77 → 0.77Kilmarnock1.37 → 1.40

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Kilmarnock
11th13%15%+2
Bottom3%3%0
Ross County
11th26%25%−1
St. Johnstone
11th15%15%0
Bottom77%76%−1

From the forecast before the match (12 April 2025): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

CelticKilmarnock
Expected goals2.900.64
Win83%5%
Expected Points2.610.27
Clean sheet53%5%

Celtic 83%Draw 12%Kilmarnock 5%

Most likely score 2–0, 12%. Both sides score 45%.

Kilmarnock goalsCeltic goals0123456+0123456+3%2%8%6%2%8%2%8%2%9%5%2%5%3%1%4%2%12%12%

From the forecast as it stood on 12 April 2025: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowCeltic winDrawKilmarnock win
Kilmarnock
11th13%15%9%2%
Bottom3%3%2%<1%
Ross County
11th26%25%29%31%
St. Johnstone
11th15%15%15%13%
Bottom77%76%77%82%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Celtic

  1. L0–16 AprSt. Johnstone (A)xG 2.32–0.52
  2. W3–029 MarHearts (H)xG 2.68–1.02
  3. L2–316 MarRangers (H)xG 1.88–1.17
  4. W5–21 MarSt. Mirren (A)xG 3.37–1.63
  5. W5–125 FebAberdeen (H)xG 2.72–0.85
  6. L1–222 FebHibernian (A)xG 1.78–0.67

Kilmarnock

  1. W2–05 AprMotherwell (H)xG 1.22–0.18
  2. L1–529 MarSt. Mirren (A)xG 1.29–1.74
  3. D1–115 MarHibernian (H)xG 0.64–2.01
  4. L0–11 MarRoss County (A)xG 2.52–1.10
  5. L2–426 FebRangers (H)xG 1.38–1.95
  6. L0–122 FebAberdeen (A)xG 0.43–1.08

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

CelticKilmarnock
Position1st9th
Played3232
Won, drawn, lost25–⁠3–⁠49–⁠8–⁠15
Points78 (2.44 per game)35 (1.09 per game)
Expected Points per game2.411.32
Goals92–⁠2137–⁠53
xG per game2.61–⁠0.761.37–⁠1.46
Home: points, xG per game2.69, 2.90–⁠0.681.62, 1.72–⁠1.17
Away: points, xG per game2.19, 2.32–⁠0.850.56, 1.01–⁠1.75
ManagerBrendan Rodgers (70)Derek McInnes (108)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.35AttackCeltic2.42, 1stKilmarnock1.24, 5thDefence (lower is better)Celtic0.77, 1stKilmarnock1.37, 5th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.02.5SepOctNovDecJanFebMarAprCeltic attack: 2.42Kilmarnock attack: 1.242.421.24KilmarnockCelticDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.02.5SepOctNovDecJanFebMarAprCeltic defence: 0.77Kilmarnock defence: 1.371.370.77

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

CelticKilmarnock
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play+127%−43%−11%+2%
Counter-attacks+55%−14%−48%−8%
Set pieces+10%−59%+20%+16%
Penalties+66%−59%+24%−17%
Headers+30%−54%−1%−9%
Left side+93%−26%+3%−2%
Centre+93%−47%−12%+11%
Right side+69%−59%−2%−1%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Celtic attacking

Celtic createdKilmarnock concededLeft side+93%−1%Centre+93%+11%Right side+69%−2%Open play+127%+2%Counter-attacks+55%−8%Set pieces+10%+16%Headers+30%−9%

Kilmarnock attacking

Kilmarnock createdCeltic concededLeft side+3%−59%Centre−12%−47%Right side−2%−26%Open play−11%−43%Counter-attacks−48%−14%Set pieces+20%−59%Headers−1%−54%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

CelticKilmarnock

2.61xG1.37
0.76xG against1.46
75%Possession46%
18.9Shots12.8
7.5Shots against12.4
7.3Shots on target4.0
4.5Big chances2.0
38.0Touches in the opposition box22.6
719Passes318
89%Pass accuracy67%
8.8Corners5.8
83%Field tilt46%
75.1Final-third entries32.3
22.1Box entries10.4
9.2Passes per defensive action14.3

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Celtic

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level322.620.79
Ahead462.820.73
Behind121.760.84

Kilmarnock

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level421.381.51
Ahead171.541.21
Behind311.261.52

xG by period

Celtic

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.290.126–4
16–300.380.1217–1
31–450.500.1619–5
46–600.440.1214–5
61–750.390.1114–1
76–900.610.1522–5

Kilmarnock

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.230.245–5
16–300.220.204–7
31–450.140.262–9
46–600.170.258–9
61–750.260.227–10
76–900.350.3011–13

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Celtic

GKRBCBCBLBCMCMCMRWSTLWSchmeichel 30Sinisalo 2Johnston 27Ralston 5Carter-Vickers 25Welsh 1Trusty 20Scales 16Nawrocki 2Taylor 19Valle 7Schlupp 6Engels 20McCowan 12Bernardo 11McGregor 28Hatate 23Kühn 21Yang 5Forrest 3Idah 14Furuhashi 13Maeda 5Maeda 19Jota 6Yang 34-3-3 in 29 of 32 starts

Formations: 4-3-3 (29), 4-5-1 (1), 4-1-2-3 (1), 4-4-1-1 (1)

Kilmarnock

GKRBCBCBLBRMCMCMLMSTSTMcCrorie 20O'Hara 12Lyons 11Mayo 8Armstrong 4Mayo 18Wright 18Deas 13Findlay 10Ndaba 14Deas 6Lyons 5Armstrong 16Murray 3Wright 3Watson 13Donnelly 8Murray 3Polworth 13Lyons 9Ndaba 4Murray 11Kennedy 11Ndaba 3Watkins 21Wales 6Cameron 2Vassell 19Anderson 8Donnelly 24-4-2 in 16 of 32 starts

Formations: 4-4-2 (16), 3-4-1-2 (5), 4-3-3 (3), 3-4-2-1 (3), 3-5-2 (2), 3-4-3 (2), 4-1-4-1 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
10 November 2024Kilmarnock0–2CelticxG 2.22–2.12
4 August 2024Celtic4–0KilmarnockxG 3.11–0.20
15 May 2024Kilmarnock0–5CelticxG 0.75–4.60
17 February 2024Celtic1–1KilmarnockxG 1.49–0.95
10 December 2023Kilmarnock2–1CelticxG 2.06–1.68
7 October 2023Celtic3–1KilmarnockxG 2.75–1.54

12 league meetings since 2020/21: Celtic won 9, Kilmarnock won 1, and 2 were drawn. Goals 34–6 and xG 2.49–1.16 per game.

Key players

Celtic

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Furuhashi151,3331030.930.08
Jota6505420.520.40
Engels201,746960.500.35
Idah151,353800.660.16

Kilmarnock

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Anderson111,140900.740.06
Kennedy131,117410.160.32
Watkins221,886410.370.04
Vassell191,425210.320.09

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.