Digressive Celts

Matches › 2025/26

Celtic 1–3 Rangers

Saturday 3 January 2026, 12:30 · Celtic Park · Round 21 · Half-time 1–0 · Referee Steven McLean · Attendance 58,673

Celtic Yang 20'

Rangers Chermiti 50', 59', Moore 71'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

CelticRangers
Goals13
xG2.341.44
Expected Points1.980.78

Celtic 58%Draw 24%Rangers 18%

Most likely score 2–1, 12%. Final score 1–3, 2%.

Rangers goalsCeltic goals0123456+0123456+2%1%3%6%2%5%3%4%7%3%2%5%4%1%2%1%9%12%10%10%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

01230153045607590HTAraujo on for McCowan, 68'Hatate on for Nygren and Yamada on for Kenny, 74'Scales on for Tierney and Forrest on for Ralston, 88'Diomande on for Aasgaard, 46'Tavernier on for Gassama, 86'Miovski on for Chermiti, 90+2'Yang 20'Chermiti 50'Chermiti 59'Moore 71'Celtic 2.34Rangers 1.4401230153045607590HTAraujo on for McCowan, 68'Hatate on for Nygren and Yamada on for Kenny, 74'Scales on for Tierney and Forrest on for Ralston, 88'Diomande on for Aasgaard, 46'Tavernier on for Gassama, 86'Miovski on for Chermiti, 90+2'Yang 20'Chermiti 50'Chermiti 59'Moore 71'2.341.44CelticRangers

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

CelticRangers

2.34 +0.06xG1.44 −0.29
1.93 −0.12xG on target1.66 −0.35
21 +4Shots9 −7
9 +3.6Shots on target4 −1.7
4 +0.2Big chances3 +0.5
38 +2Touches in the opposition box20 −9
66% −4Possession34% −27
532 −123Passes277 −234
83% −5Pass accuracy70% −14
74% −5Field tilt26% −40
42 −27Final-third entries24 −28
17 −5Box entries12 −4
6.9 −2.7Passes per defensive action15.2 +3.9
8 +1.3Corners5 −1.5
25 +11Tackles20 +4
4 −3.1Interceptions10 +2.5
26 −1Clearances36 +9
1 −1.1Saves9 +6.1
13 +1Fouls13 +1
0 −1.8Offsides3 +1.5

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Celtic

Maeda 53', 0.70 xGKenny 19', 0.37 xGKenny 25', 0.13 xGTrusty 14', 0.12 xGYang 32', 0.10 xGTierney 54', 0.10 xGYang 56', 0.09 xGMaeda 61', 0.09 xGNygren 32', 0.08 xGKenny 53', 0.07 xGEngels 34', 0.06 xGMcCowan 11', 0.05 xGKenny 32', 0.05 xGYang 57', 0.05 xGKenny 27', 0.04 xGMcCowan 37', 0.04 xGMcGregor 47', 0.03 xGTierney 85', 0.03 xGForrest 90+2', 0.03 xGAraujo 90+4', 0.02 xGYang 20', 0.07 xG, goal6%0.13 xGSix-yard box: 2 shots, 0.13 xG, 0 goals66%1.55 xGCentral box: 8 shots, 1.55 xG, 0 goals10%0.23 xGWide in the box: 4 shots, 0.23 xG, 1 goal18%0.43 xGEdge of the box: 7 shots, 0.43 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Rangers

Gassama 26', 0.20 xGGassama 45+2', 0.08 xGBarron 54', 0.06 xGGassama 66', 0.06 xGMoore 45+1', 0.05 xGMoore 24', 0.03 xGChermiti 50', 0.59 xG, goalChermiti 59', 0.28 xG, goalMoore 71', 0.08 xG, goal41%0.59 xGSix-yard box: 1 shot, 0.59 xG, 1 goal24%0.34 xGCentral box: 3 shots, 0.34 xG, 1 goal27%0.39 xGWide in the box: 3 shots, 0.39 xG, 1 goal6%0.08 xGEdge of the box: 1 shot, 0.08 xG, 0 goals2%0.03 xGFurther out: 1 shot, 0.03 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

CelticRangers

1.72 13 shots, 1 goalOpen play1.36 8 shots, 3 goals
0.18 2 shots, 0 goalsCounter-attacks0.00 0 shots, 0 goals
0.44 6 shots, 0 goalsSet pieces0.08 1 shot, 0 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
29 min (30%) · Celtic 1.63, Rangers 0.34 xG
Celtic ahead
32 min (33%) · Celtic 0.54, Rangers 0.96 xG
Rangers ahead
35 min (36%) · Celtic 0.18, Rangers 0.14 xG

Line-ups

1566631327421483824SchmeichelRalstonTrustyTierneyYangEngelsMcGregorMcCowanNygrenMaedaKennyGoal88'88'68'74'74'Celtic 3-4-2-1Wilfried Nancy121537308431123947ButlandSterlingSouttarFernandezMeghomaBarronRaskinAasgaardGassamaChermitiMooreYellow cardYellow cardGoalGoalGoal46'86'90+2'Rangers 4-3-3Danny Röhl

Celtic substitutes

  • 68' Araujo for McCowan
  • 74' Hatate for Nygren
  • 74' Yamada for Kenny
  • 88' Scales for Tierney
  • 88' Forrest for Ralston

Rangers substitutes

  • 46' Diomande for Aasgaard
  • 86' Tavernier for Gassama
  • 90+2' Miovski for Chermiti · yellow card 90+2'

Players

Celtic

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
SchmeichelGK900.000.0000.0111
RalstonCB880.000.0200.06410
TrustyCB900.120.0000.04211
TierneyCB880.130.1110.14513
YangRWB9010.300.1020.18117
EngelsCM900.060.2920.0464
McGregorCM900.030.0620.0623
McCowanLWB680.090.5220.1791
NygrenAM7410.080.1420.0613
MaedaAM900.800.1520.0313
KennyST740.670.0820.0841
AraujoDF220.020.0710.1321
HatateMF160.000.0610.1810
YamadaFW160.000.0000.0000
ScalesDF20.000.0100.0002
ForrestFW20.030.0000.0000

Rangers

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
ButlandGK900.000.0100.0661
SterlingRB900.000.0100.03210
SouttarCB900.000.0100.02212
FernandezCB900.000.0000.01113
MeghomaLB900.000.0000.0003
BarronCM900.060.0200.0427
RaskinCM9010.000.6820.2248
Aasgaard CM460.000.031−0.0102
Gassama RW8610.340.0510.0855
ChermitiST9020.870.0210.0735
MooreLW9010.160.0810.1021
DiomandeMF440.000.0100.0004
TavernierDF40.000.0000.0100
Miovski FW00.000.0000.0000

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Celtic

Tierney and McGregor: 6 passesTierney and Nygren: 6 passesMcCowan and Engels: 6 passesMcCowan and Nygren: 6 passesMcCowan and Kenny: 6 passesMaeda and Kenny: 6 passesSchmeichel and Tierney: 7 passesRalston and Nygren: 7 passesYang and McGregor: 7 passesNygren and Kenny: 7 passesTrusty and McGregor: 8 passesMcCowan and McGregor: 8 passesTrusty and McCowan: 10 passesYang and Engels: 10 passesEngels and McGregor: 12 passesTrusty and Ralston: 13 passesTrusty and Tierney: 13 passesSchmeichel and Trusty: 14 passesRalston and Yang: 14 passesTierney and McCowan: 15 passesYang and Nygren: 16 passesSchmeichel and Ralston: 20 passesRalston and Engels: 20 passesRalston and McGregor: 20 passesSchmeichel: 23 completed passesTrusty: 34 completed passesRalston: 48 completed passesTierney: 27 completed passesYang: 29 completed passesMcCowan: 30 completed passesEngels: 37 completed passesMcGregor: 43 completed passesMaeda: 13 completed passesNygren: 22 completed passesKenny: 12 completed passes1656631314274238824SchmeichelTrustyRalstonTierneyYangMcCowanEngelsMcGregorMaedaNygrenKennyStarters until 68' · lines join pairs with 6+ passes

Rangers

Butland and Raskin: 3 passesSterling and Souttar: 3 passesRaskin and Gassama: 3 passesBarron and Gassama: 3 passesBarron and Chermiti: 3 passesGassama and Chermiti: 3 passesButland and Meghoma: 4 passesSterling and Barron: 4 passesSouttar and Barron: 4 passesRaskin and Barron: 4 passesRaskin and Moore: 4 passesSterling and Raskin: 5 passesSouttar and Raskin: 5 passesMeghoma and Raskin: 5 passesAasgaard and Barron: 5 passesButland and Fernandez: 9 passesFernandez and Meghoma: 9 passesSterling and Aasgaard: 10 passesFernandez and Souttar: 10 passesButland and Souttar: 12 passesButland: 16 completed passesSterling: 18 completed passesFernandez: 17 completed passesSouttar: 19 completed passesMeghoma: 13 completed passesRaskin: 16 completed passesAasgaard: 11 completed passesBarron: 16 completed passesGassama: 7 completed passesChermiti: 3 completed passesMoore: 4 completed passes121375304311823947ButlandSterlingFernandezSouttarMeghomaRaskinAasgaardBarronGassamaChermitiMooreStarters until 46' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Celtic

FromToPasses
McGregorRalston17
RalstonSchmeichel15
TrustyTierney13
RalstonEngels12
EngelsRalston11

Rangers

FromToPasses
SterlingAasgaard7
SouttarFernandez7
SterlingChermiti7
SouttarButland6
RaskinMoore6

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Celtic

3+0.53−1.314+2.47+1.47+3.06+0.65−0.48+2.48−0.412+4.65+0.65+0.94+1.07+1.24−1.53−1.45+1.54+0.85+1.33−1.86+4.02−0.24+2.51−2.44+1.21+0.10−0.41+0.40−0.32+1.1FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 19 matches

Rangers

5+1.44−1.822+8.78+2.48+2.57+1.47+1.311+6.19+2.09+0.76+1.45+0.25+0.51−4.03−2.47+3.65+1.61−2.06+2.85+0.28+5.32+0.62+0.51−0.41−1.31+0.72+1.31+0.20−0.50−0.8FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 19 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Celtic

0.010.030.020.020.030.020.010.020.010.060.090.010.020.020.030.060.180.060.02−0.06−0.02−0.020.59LessMore

Rangers

0.020.010.040.010.020.010.020.030.090.040.06−0.020.010.020.020.010.050.16LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.32AttackCeltic2.16 → 2.13Rangers1.79 → 1.77Defence (lower is better)Celtic0.85 → 0.86Rangers0.99 → 1.00

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Celtic
Title75%62%−13
Rangers
Title9%19%+10
Hearts
Title16%19%+3

From the forecast before the match (3 January 2026): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

CelticRangers
Expected goals1.891.02
Win57%20%
Expected Points1.950.82
Clean sheet36%15%

Celtic 57%Draw 23%Rangers 20%

Most likely score 1–1, 11%. Both sides score 55%.

Rangers goalsCeltic goals0123456+0123456+6%5%3%1%5%2%5%2%6%6%3%1%3%3%2%1%1%10%11%10%10%

From the forecast as it stood on 3 January 2026: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowCeltic winDrawRangers win
Celtic
Title75%81%71%62%
Rangers
Title9%5%10%19%
Hearts
Title16%14%18%19%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Celtic

  1. L0–230 DecMotherwell (A)xG 0.59–1.40
  2. W4–227 DecLivingston (A)xG 3.83–1.09
  3. W3–121 DecAberdeen (H)xG 4.72–0.91
  4. L1–217 DecDundee United (A)xG 3.20–1.45
  5. L1–27 DecHearts (H)xG 1.87–0.52
  6. W1–03 DecDundee FC (H)xG 2.08–0.21

Rangers

  1. W2–130 DecSt. Mirren (H)xG 1.89–1.71
  2. W1–027 DecMotherwell (H)xG 4.14–1.07
  3. L1–221 DecHearts (A)xG 2.33–1.70
  4. W1–015 DecHibernian (H)xG 1.84–0.55
  5. W3–06 DecKilmarnock (A)xG 0.75–0.66
  6. D2–23 DecDundee United (A)xG 4.79–1.38

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

CelticRangers
Position2nd3rd
Played1919
Won, drawn, lost12–⁠2–⁠59–⁠8–⁠2
Points38 (2.00 per game)35 (1.84 per game)
Expected Points per game2.091.70
Goals33–⁠1827–⁠16
xG per game2.28–⁠0.921.73–⁠1.11
Home: points, xG per game2.44, 2.85–⁠0.561.90, 1.77–⁠0.96
Away: points, xG per game1.60, 1.76–⁠1.231.78, 1.68–⁠1.28
ManagerWilfried Nancy (5)Danny Röhl (11)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.32AttackCeltic2.16, 1stRangers1.79, 2ndDefence (lower is better)Celtic0.85, 1stRangers0.99, 2nd

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.02.5SepOctNovDecCeltic attack: 2.16Rangers attack: 1.792.161.79RangersCelticDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.02.5SepOctNovDecCeltic defence: 0.85Rangers defence: 0.990.990.85

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

CelticRangers
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play+117%−49%+35%−38%
Counter-attacks−10%−38%+16%−24%
Set pieces−12%−12%+12%+14%
Penalties+29%−4%−4%−4%
Headers+77%−34%+29%−4%
Left side+81%−47%+67%−21%
Centre+83%−33%+20%−23%
Right side+16%−38%average−20%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Celtic attacking

Celtic createdRangers concededLeft side+81%−20%Centre+83%−23%Right side+16%−21%Open play+117%−38%Counter-attacks−10%−24%Set pieces−12%+14%Headers+77%−4%

Rangers attacking

Rangers createdCeltic concededLeft side+67%−38%Centre+20%−33%Right sideaverage−47%Open play+35%−49%Counter-attacks+16%−38%Set pieces+12%−12%Headers+29%−34%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

CelticRangers

2.28xG1.73
0.92xG against1.11
70%Possession61%
16.9Shots15.7
8.4Shots against10.5
5.4Shots on target5.7
3.8Big chances2.5
35.7Touches in the opposition box29.1
655Passes511
88%Pass accuracy85%
6.7Corners6.5
79%Field tilt66%
69.0Final-third entries51.8
21.8Box entries16.2
9.6Passes per defensive action11.3

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Celtic

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level452.170.79
Ahead302.251.00
Behind152.651.11

Rangers

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level441.950.84
Ahead331.091.33
Behind132.591.46

xG by period

Celtic

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.400.146–4
16–300.370.075–1
31–450.440.194–3
46–600.250.244–6
61–750.280.134–3
76–900.540.1510–1

Rangers

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.200.106–1
16–300.290.183–2
31–450.300.104–4
46–600.180.193–1
61–750.340.222–5
76–900.430.329–3

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Celtic

GKRBCBCBLBCMCMCMRWSTLWSchmeichel 18Sinisalo 1Ralston 7Yang 5Donovan 4Trusty 9Carter-Vickers 7Murray 2Scales 16Tierney 3Tierney 8Saracchi 7McCowan 2Engels 11Nygren 8McCowan 5McGregor 18Hatate 11Bernardo 3Nygren 4Maeda 3Yang 2Kenny 7Maeda 5Iheanacho 3Maeda 7Tounekti 6Yang 34-3-3 in 15 of 19 starts

Formations: 4-3-3 (15), 3-4-2-1 (3), 3-4-3 (1)

Rangers

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTButland 19Tavernier 14Aarons 3Sterling 1Souttar 12Sterling 2Djiga 10Fernandez 9Cornelius 5Meghoma 13Aarons 2Miovski 2Raskin 14Barron 9Rothwell 4Diomande 9Aasgaard 2Gassama 6Antman 6Aarons 2Aasgaard 6Diomande 3Barron 2Gassama 8Moore 5Meghoma 2Miovski 9Chermiti 4Danilo 34-2-3-1 in 12 of 19 starts

Formations: 4-2-3-1 (12), 3-5-2 (2), 3-4-3 (2), 4-3-3 (2), 4-1-4-1 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
31 August 2025Rangers0–0CelticxG 0.15–0.19
4 May 2025Rangers1–1CelticxG 1.46–1.10
16 March 2025Celtic2–3RangersxG 1.88–1.17
2 January 2025Rangers3–0CelticxG 2.27–0.13
1 September 2024Celtic3–0RangersxG 1.55–1.14
11 May 2024Celtic2–1RangersxG 2.81–1.02

21 league meetings since 2020/21: Celtic won 8, Rangers won 7, and 6 were drawn. Goals 31–30 and xG 1.28–1.18 per game.

Key players

Celtic

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Kenny7585420.930.05
Nygren121,093820.570.31
Maeda151,326650.480.21
Forrest2455100.250.36

Rangers

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Chermiti4547220.390.07
Miovski11895310.360.10
Gassama151,396110.270.18
Tavernier141,354430.190.25

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.