Digressive Celts

Matches › 2025/26

St. Mirren 0–2 Falkirk

Saturday 10 January 2026, 15:00 · The SMISA Stadium · Round 22 · Half-time 0–0 · Referee Steven McLean · Attendance 7,062

Falkirk Yeats 55', Miller 61'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

St. MirrenFalkirk
Goals02
xG0.540.52
Expected Points1.281.24

St. Mirren 27%Draw 48%Falkirk 25%

Most likely score 0–0, 36%. Final score 0–2, 4%.

Falkirk goalsSt. Mirren goals0123456+0123456+17%4%18%11%2%5%3%36%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

00.250.50.750153045607590HTRichardson on for Donnelly, 28'Tanser on for John and Campbell on for Phillips, 46'Mullen on for George, 66'Dijksteel on for Nlundulu, 79'Parkinson on for Stewart, Wilson on for Yeats, Williams on for Miller, and Ross on for Cartwright, 78'Donaldson on for Lissah, 90+3'Yeats 55'Miller 61'St. Mirren 0.54Falkirk 0.5200.250.50.750153045607590HTRichardson on for Donnelly, 28'Tanser on for John and Campbell on for Phillips, 46'Mullen on for George, 66'Dijksteel on for Nlundulu, 79'Parkinson on for Stewart, Wilson on for Yeats, Williams on for Miller, and Ross on for Cartwright, 78'Donaldson on for Lissah, 90+3'Yeats 55'Miller 61'0.540.52St. MirrenFalkirk

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

St. MirrenFalkirk

0.54 −0.63xG0.52 −0.64
0.23 −0.73xG on target1.33 +0.25
9 −3Shots11 −1
3 −0.6Shots on target3 −0.9
0 −1.7Big chances0 −1.9
18 −7Touches in the opposition box22 +2
38% −7Possession62% +12
339 −7Passes557 +166
76% +2Pass accuracy86% +10
49% +1Field tilt51% +4
34 −4Final-third entries42 +8
11 0Box entries8 −2
21.7 +5Passes per defensive action11.7 −1
4 −2.2Corners8 +3.3
20 +7Tackles15 −4
7 +0.1Interceptions8 −1.0
23 −7Clearances25 −5
1 −2.3Saves3 −0.4
11 −1Fouls8 −5
3 +1.0Offsides3 +1.0

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

St. Mirren

Fraser 3', 0.11 xGMandron 35', 0.08 xGNlundulu 31', 0.07 xGMandron 31', 0.06 xGMandron 35', 0.06 xGNlundulu 35', 0.06 xGFreckleton 36', 0.05 xGCampbell 90+4', 0.04 xGMandron 31', 0.03 xG0%0.00 xGSix-yard box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals62%0.34 xGCentral box: 5 shots, 0.34 xG, 0 goals16%0.09 xGWide in the box: 2 shots, 0.09 xG, 0 goals22%0.12 xGEdge of the box: 2 shots, 0.12 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Falkirk

Henderson 82', 0.08 xGCartwright 8', 0.06 xGTait 18', 0.05 xGMiller 19', 0.04 xGMiller 72', 0.04 xGYeats 6', 0.03 xGMiller 61', 0.03 xGMiller 33', 0.02 xGMiller 45+2', 0.02 xGYeats 55', 0.07 xG, goalMiller 61', 0.07 xG, goal0%0.00 xGSix-yard box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals35%0.18 xGCentral box: 3 shots, 0.18 xG, 1 goal16%0.08 xGWide in the box: 2 shots, 0.08 xG, 0 goals35%0.18 xGEdge of the box: 5 shots, 0.18 xG, 0 goals14%0.07 xGFurther out: 1 shot, 0.07 xG, 1 goal

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

St. MirrenFalkirk

0.23 4 shots, 0 goalsOpen play0.32 7 shots, 2 goals
0.00 0 shots, 0 goalsCounter-attacks0.05 1 shot, 0 goals
0.31 5 shots, 0 goalsSet pieces0.15 3 shots, 0 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
57 min (59%) · St. Mirren 0.50, Falkirk 0.29 xG
Falkirk ahead
39 min (41%) · St. Mirren 0.04, Falkirk 0.23 xG

Line-ups

122521108843024914GeorgeFraserKingFreckletonMcMenaminPhillipsDonnellyTaylorJohnMandronNlunduluYellow cardYellow card66'46'28'46'79'St. Mirren 3-5-2Stephen Robinson1928205381714212916BainLissahAllanHendersonMcCannSpencerCartwrightYeatsTaitMillerStewartYellow cardGoalGoal90+3'78'78'78'78'Falkirk 4-2-3-1John McGlynn

St. Mirren substitutes

  • 28' Richardson for Donnelly
  • 46' Campbell for Phillips
  • 46' Tanser for John
  • 66' Mullen for George
  • 79' Dijksteel for Nlundulu

Falkirk substitutes

  • 78' Parkinson for Stewart
  • 78' Ross for Cartwright
  • 78' Williams for Miller
  • 78' Wilson for Yeats
  • 90+3' Donaldson for Lissah

Players

St. Mirren

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
GeorgeGK660.000.0000.0332
FraserCB900.110.0200.08510
KingCB900.000.0100.03110
Freckleton CB900.050.1210.2656
McMenaminRWB900.000.1300.1493
PhillipsCM460.000.0200.0302
DonnellyCM280.000.0000.0000
TaylorCM900.000.1120.0013
JohnLWB460.000.0100.0430
MandronST900.220.051−0.0127
Nlundulu ST790.130.0100.0200
RichardsonMF620.000.0920.0642
CampbellMF440.040.0100.0314
TanserMF440.000.1100.1036
MullenGK240.000.0000.0111
DijksteelMF110.000.0200.0430

Falkirk

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
Bain GK900.000.0000.0310
LissahRB900.000.0700.15810
AllanCB900.000.0100.0636
HendersonCB900.080.0000.04112
McCannLB900.000.0100.0871
SpencerDM900.000.1310.0366
CartwrightDM780.060.0100.0342
YeatsRW7810.100.0330.0424
TaitAM900.050.0300.0674
MillerLW7810.220.0510.0921
StewartST780.000.072−0.0713
ParkinsonFW120.000.000−0.1700
RossFW120.000.0000.0000
WilliamsFW120.000.0100.0310
WilsonFW120.000.1000.1620
DonaldsonDF00.000.0000.0112

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

St. Mirren

George and Freckleton: 3 passesKing and Freckleton: 3 passesKing and Taylor: 3 passesFreckleton and Donnelly: 3 passesFraser and Mandron: 3 passesMcMenamin and Phillips: 3 passesJohn and Donnelly: 3 passesFreckleton and Fraser: 5 passesFraser and Phillips: 5 passesJohn and Taylor: 6 passesKing and Fraser: 7 passesFreckleton and John: 7 passesFreckleton and Taylor: 7 passesFraser and McMenamin: 9 passesGeorge: 6 completed passesKing: 10 completed passesFreckleton: 16 completed passesFraser: 17 completed passesMcMenamin: 9 completed passesJohn: 8 completed passesPhillips: 7 completed passesDonnelly: 5 completed passesTaylor: 12 completed passesMandron: 3 completed passesNlundulu: 2 completed passes152122102488430914GeorgeKingFreckletonFraserMcMenaminJohnPhillipsDonnellyTaylorMandronNlunduluStarters until 28' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Falkirk

Allan and Tait: 7 passesMcCann and Stewart: 7 passesLissah and Tait: 8 passesAllan and Yeats: 8 passesMcCann and Tait: 8 passesMcCann and Miller: 8 passesSpencer and Tait: 8 passesSpencer and Miller: 8 passesCartwright and Tait: 8 passesYeats and Miller: 8 passesTait and Miller: 9 passesMcCann and Spencer: 10 passesLissah and Miller: 13 passesHenderson and Tait: 13 passesHenderson and Allan: 14 passesLissah and Spencer: 15 passesLissah and Yeats: 15 passesHenderson and Spencer: 15 passesAllan and Spencer: 15 passesYeats and Tait: 17 passesMcCann and Cartwright: 19 passesLissah and Allan: 26 passesBain and Allan: 30 passesBain and Henderson: 37 passesHenderson and McCann: 37 passesBain: 55 completed passesLissah: 43 completed passesHenderson: 64 completed passesAllan: 54 completed passesMcCann: 53 completed passesSpencer: 45 completed passesCartwright: 21 completed passesYeats: 30 completed passesTait: 43 completed passesMiller: 22 completed passesStewart: 11 completed passes1928520381714212916BainLissahHendersonAllanMcCannSpencerCartwrightYeatsTaitMillerStewartStarters until 78' · lines join pairs with 7+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

St. Mirren

FromToPasses
TaylorFreckleton10
FraserMcMenamin9
FreckletonTaylor9
FreckletonKing8
FreckletonJohn7

Falkirk

FromToPasses
HendersonMcCann26
BainHenderson23
HendersonBain22
BainAllan22
AllanBain16

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

St. Mirren

2−2.44−3.717−0.46−0.69+4.44−1.88+0.47+0.86−1.110+4.83−1.45+0.94+1.02−1.74+0.36+2.44+1.02−1.02−0.73−0.24+1.61−1.04+2.42+0.23+0.12+1.21+0.62+0.81+0.90−0.5FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 19 matches

Falkirk

6−1.213−1.37−0.48+2.86−3.68+1.08+1.74−3.37−1.24−2.94−0.81−2.140.07+0.52−2.52−1.60−1.92−0.85+0.62−2.23+1.01−0.20−2.10−2.50−1.10−0.31+0.41+0.70−1.02−4.7FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 20 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

St. Mirren

0.010.010.010.010.010.030.020.010.010.040.010.010.040.030.070.030.010.040.050.040.03−0.020.090.01−0.06−0.010.160.17LessMore

Falkirk

0.010.020.010.010.010.020.010.020.050.020.040.020.010.080.050.08−0.010.030.050.090.020.010.02−0.01−0.01−0.20−0.02−0.010.15LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.32AttackSt. Mirren1.15 → 1.14Falkirk1.10 → 1.10Defence (lower is better)St. Mirren1.36 → 1.36Falkirk1.37 → 1.34

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
St. Mirren
Top six8%3%−5
11th5%8%+3
Bottom1%2%+1
Falkirk
Top six48%65%+17
11th1%<1%−1
Dundee United
Top six19%14%−5
Aberdeen
Top six23%17%−6
11th2%1%−1

From the forecast before the match (10 January 2026): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

St. MirrenFalkirk
Expected goals1.411.01
Win45%27%
Expected Points1.641.08
Clean sheet36%25%

St. Mirren 45%Draw 28%Falkirk 27%

Most likely score 1–1, 13%. Both sides score 49%.

Falkirk goalsSt. Mirren goals0123456+0123456+8%5%2%6%2%9%9%5%2%4%4%2%1%1%10%12%13%

From the forecast as it stood on 10 January 2026: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowSt. Mirren winDrawFalkirk win
St. Mirren
Top six8%13%6%3%
11th5%3%7%8%
Bottom1%<1%1%2%
Falkirk
Top six48%37%48%65%
11th1%2%1%<1%
Dundee United
Top six19%22%20%14%
Aberdeen
Top six23%26%24%17%
11th2%2%1%1%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

St. Mirren

  1. L0–23 JanMotherwell (A)xG 0.30–1.88
  2. L1–230 DecRangers (A)xG 1.71–1.89
  3. D0–027 DecKilmarnock (H)xG 1.36–0.75
  4. W1–020 DecLivingston (H)xG 2.23–0.24
  5. W2–06 DecDundee United (H)xG 1.24–1.01
  6. D3–33 DecAberdeen (A)xG 1.83–2.08

Falkirk

  1. W1–03 JanAberdeen (H)xG 1.53–0.57
  2. L0–127 DecDundee FC (A)xG 1.33–1.24
  3. W1–020 DecKilmarnock (A)xG 1.46–1.19
  4. L0–213 DecHearts (H)xG 1.03–1.51
  5. L0–36 DecHibernian (A)xG 0.49–2.02
  6. D0–03 DecMotherwell (H)xG 0.57–0.47

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

St. MirrenFalkirk
Position10th6th
Played1920
Won, drawn, lost4–⁠6–⁠97–⁠6–⁠7
Points18 (0.95 per game)27 (1.35 per game)
Expected Points per game1.231.27
Goals16–⁠2621–⁠27
xG per game1.17–⁠1.381.16–⁠1.42
Home: points, xG per game1.30, 1.17–⁠1.081.40, 1.34–⁠1.11
Away: points, xG per game0.56, 1.18–⁠1.711.30, 0.97–⁠1.72
ManagerStephen Robinson (90)John McGlynn (20)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.32AttackSt. Mirren1.15, 8thFalkirk1.10, 9thDefence (lower is better)St. Mirren1.36, 6thFalkirk1.37, 7th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovDecJanSt. Mirren attack: 1.15Falkirk attack: 1.101.151.10FalkirkSt. MirrenDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovDecJanSt. Mirren defence: 1.36Falkirk defence: 1.371.371.36

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

St. MirrenFalkirk
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−27%−3%−9%+2%
Counter-attacks−47%+90%−13%+34%
Set pieces+28%−15%−19%−24%
Penalties−34%−67%−68%+26%
Headers+20%+9%−24%+14%
Left side−25%+7%−52%−16%
Centre−9%+14%−19%average
Right side−15%−15%+43%+11%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

St. Mirren attacking

St. Mirren createdFalkirk concededLeft side−25%+11%Centre−9%averageRight side−15%−16%Open play−27%+2%Counter-attacks−47%+34%Set pieces+28%−24%Headers+20%+14%

Falkirk attacking

Falkirk createdSt. Mirren concededLeft side−52%−15%Centre−19%+14%Right side+43%+7%Open play−9%−3%Counter-attacks−13%+90%Set pieces−19%−15%Headers−24%+9%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

St. MirrenFalkirk

1.17xG1.16
1.38xG against1.42
45%Possession50%
12.4Shots12.0
12.9Shots against12.7
3.6Shots on target3.9
1.7Big chances1.9
25.4Touches in the opposition box19.7
346Passes392
73%Pass accuracy76%
6.2Corners4.7
47%Field tilt47%
38.2Final-third entries34.3
11.5Box entries10.5
16.8Passes per defensive action12.3

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

St. Mirren

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level591.211.33
Ahead150.891.62
Behind161.271.33

Falkirk

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level451.161.64
Ahead171.130.68
Behind281.161.50

xG by period

St. Mirren

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.190.140–0
16–300.190.204–3
31–450.150.282–6
46–600.170.172–3
61–750.190.324–4
76–900.290.274–10

Falkirk

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.220.162–1
16–300.200.303–6
31–450.200.372–9
46–600.210.195–2
61–750.170.216–4
76–900.160.193–5

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

St. Mirren

GKCBCBCBRWBCMCMCMLWBSTSTGeorge 19Fraser 17Gogic 12King 10Freckleton 18Richards… 14RichardsonMcMena… 5McMenaminPhillips 19Baccus 11Gogic 5McMena… 3McMenaminO'Hara 8Idowu 4John 18Tanser 1Ayunga 11Nlundulu 8Idowu 3Mandron 163-5-2 in 14 of 19 starts

Formations: 3-5-2 (14), 5-3-2 (3), 3-4-1-2 (1), 3-1-4-2 (1)

Falkirk

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTBain 20Adams 15Lissah 3Yeats 1Allan 11Neilson 6Lissah 2Henderson 20McCann 10Lissah 7Hart 2Spencer 20Cartwright 7Tait 12Yeats 1Wilson 11Miller 4Williams 2Miller 8Tait 4Williams 3Miller 7Williams 6Ross 4MacIver 9Graham 7Samuel-Ogunsuyi 24-2-3-1 in every start

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
13 September 2025Falkirk1–2St. MirrenxG 0.70–1.57

1 league meeting since 2020/21: St. Mirren won 1, Falkirk won 0, and 0 were drawn. Goals 2–1 and xG 1.57–0.70 per game.

Key players

St. Mirren

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
McMenamin8799110.240.32
Ayunga11953200.340.03
Nlundulu9820200.300.07
Mandron161,340420.230.10

Falkirk

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
MacIver9661310.410.12
Graham7714400.460.07
Miller191,513340.230.22
Wilson11864110.230.14

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.