Sunday 4 August 2024, 15:00 · The SMISA Stadium · Round 1 · Half-time 0–0 · Referee Matthew McDermid · Attendance 6,171
St. Mirren Idowu 48', Smyth 78', 80'
Post-match
Result and Expected Points
Measure
St. Mirren
Hibernian
Goals
3
0
xG
1.20
1.58
Expected Points
1.07
1.64
St. Mirren 26%Draw 29%Hibernian 45%
Most likely score 1–1, 16%. Final score 3–0, 1%.
Own goals have no xG.
xG race
Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.
Match stats
St. MirrenHibernian
1.20xG1.58
1.47xG on target0.59
9Shots15
4Shots on target3
1Big chances2
16Touches in the opposition box27
42%Possession58%
273Passes350
65%Pass accuracy72%
30%Field tilt70%
31Final-third entries39
8Box entries11
12.1Passes per defensive action12.1
4Corners8
21Tackles12
12Interceptions4
41Clearances19
3Saves1
10Fouls9
3Offsides2
Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.
Chance locations
St. Mirren
Hibernian
Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.
xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.
Game state
48'78'80'
0–01–03–0
0'HTFT
Level
50 min (49%) · St. Mirren 0.23, Hibernian 0.85 xG
St. Mirren ahead
53 min (51%) · St. Mirren 0.97, Hibernian 0.73 xG
Line-ups
St. Mirren substitutes
46'Brown for Tanser · 1 assist
63'Scott for Olusanya · 2 assists
63'Mandron for Ayunga
71'Smyth for Adeniran · goal 78', goal 80'
87'Iacovitti for R. Taylor
Hibernian substitutes
62'Cadden for Molotnikov
73'Amos for Moriah-Welsh
73'Kukharevych for Vente
Players
St. Mirren
Player
Pos
Min
G
A
xG
xA
KP
xT
Prog
Def
Balcombe
GK
90
0.00
0.00
0
0.03
3
1
Fraser
CB
90
0.00
0.01
0
0.05
7
8
Gogic
CB
90
0.00
0.00
0
0.02
2
14
R. Taylor
CB
87
0.00
0.01
1
0.05
4
5
Rooney
RWB
90
0.00
0.03
0
0.02
4
18
Adeniran
CM
71
0.00
0.01
0
−0.01
1
6
Boyd-Munce
CM
90
0.06
0.02
0
0.03
1
4
Idowu
CM
90
1
0.26
0.17
1
0.12
3
7
Tanser
LWB
46
0.00
0.00
0
0.02
1
2
Olusanya
ST
63
0.00
0.02
1
0.04
2
0
Ayunga
ST
63
0.16
0.00
0
0.03
2
0
Brown
DF
44
1
0.00
0.00
1
0.02
3
9
Scott
FW
27
2
0.00
0.13
2
0.18
1
1
Mandron
FW
27
0.00
0.00
0
0.00
1
2
Smyth
MF
19
2
0.71
0.01
0
0.02
1
1
Iacovitti
DF
3
0.00
0.00
0
0.00
0
3
Hibernian
Player
Pos
Min
G
A
xG
xA
KP
xT
Prog
Def
Bursik
GK
90
0.00
0.00
0
0.01
1
1
Miller
RB
90
0.00
0.09
1
0.17
7
4
Ekpiteta
CB
90
0.05
0.05
0
−0.10
1
6
O'Hora
CB
90
0.14
0.04
0
0.13
7
6
Obita
LB
90
0.00
0.58
2
0.51
15
4
Moriah-Welsh
DM
73
0.00
0.02
0
0.06
5
1
Newell
DM
90
0.00
0.09
2
0.10
7
3
Boyle
RW
90
0.49
0.32
0
0.08
2
0
Campbell
AM
90
0.04
0.07
1
0.01
2
2
Molotnikov
LW
62
0.07
0.06
1
0.12
4
1
Vente
ST
73
0.74
0.05
0
−0.07
0
2
Cadden
DF
28
0.03
0.00
0
0.01
2
4
Amos
MF
17
0.03
0.06
1
0.03
1
1
Kukharevych
FW
17
0.00
0.01
0
−0.05
0
1
Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.
Pass networks
St. Mirren
Hibernian
Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.
Passing combinations
St. Mirren
From
To
Passes
Balcombe
R. Taylor
7
R. Taylor
Gogic
6
Fraser
Rooney
6
Rooney
Fraser
5
Adeniran
Boyd-Munce
5
Hibernian
From
To
Passes
O'Hora
Obita
14
O'Hora
Bursik
12
Newell
Obita
11
Miller
Ekpiteta
10
Obita
O'Hora
10
The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.
Defensive actions
St. Mirren
Hibernian
Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page.
Threat
St. Mirren
Hibernian
Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.
Ratings
The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.
League probabilities
Chance
Before
With this result
Change
St. Mirren
Top six
33%
41%
+8
11th
10%
7%
−3
Bottom
8%
5%
−3
Hibernian
Top six
58%
51%
−7
11th
4%
5%
+1
Bottom
2%
3%
+1
Dundee United
11th
17%
17%
0
Bottom
23%
23%
0
From the forecast before the match (4 August 2024): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.
Pre-match
As things stood before kick-off.
Forecast
Measure
St. Mirren
Hibernian
Expected goals
1.31
1.20
Win
39%
33%
Expected Points
1.44
1.28
Clean sheet
30%
27%
St. Mirren 39%Draw 28%Hibernian 33%
Most likely score 1–1, 13%. Both sides score 52%.
From the forecast as it stood on 4 August 2024: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.
League probabilities by result
Chance
Now
St. Mirren win
Draw
Hibernian win
St. Mirren
Top six
33%
41%
30%
26%
11th
10%
7%
9%
13%
Bottom
8%
5%
8%
10%
Hibernian
Top six
58%
51%
58%
67%
11th
4%
5%
3%
2%
Bottom
2%
3%
2%
1%
Dundee United
11th
17%
17%
19%
14%
Bottom
23%
23%
22%
24%
Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.
The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.
Ratings
The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.
Strengths and weaknesses
Chances
St. Mirren
Hibernian
Created
Conceded
Created
Conceded
Open play
−34%
average
−6%
+7%
Counter-attacks
−28%
+44%
−20%
−27%
Set pieces
−15%
−5%
−12%
−6%
Penalties
+30%
+4%
−35%
+30%
Headers
−13%
+9%
−37%
−15%
Left side
−29%
−9%
−7%
−6%
Centre
−31%
+13%
−20%
+4%
Right side
−24%
−8%
+12%
+3%
xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't. Until a side has played six matches its figures are blended with last season's, or with the league average where there is no last season to use.
Matchups
St. Mirren attacking
St. Mirren createdHibernian concededBelow averageAboveBelow averageAboveLeft side−29%+3%Centre−31%+4%Right side−24%−6%Open play−34%+7%Counter-attacks−28%−27%Set pieces−15%−6%Headers−13%−15%
Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.
Digressive Celts