Digressive Celts

Matches › 2025/26

St. Mirren 0–3 Hibernian

Saturday 8 November 2025, 17:45 · The SMISA Stadium · Round 12 · Half-time 0–1 · Referee David Dickinson · Attendance 7,116

Hibernian Mulligan 24', C. Cadden 53', Chaiwa 80'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

St. MirrenHibernian
Goals03
xG0.781.62
Expected Points0.702.03

St. Mirren 14%Draw 27%Hibernian 59%

Most likely score 0–1, 16%. Final score 0–3, 6%.

Hibernian goalsSt. Mirren goals0123456+0123456+6%6%2%5%5%1%2%5%5%2%1%16%14%15%12%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

00.511.520153045607590HTMcMenamin on for Richardson and Idowu on for Donnelly, 58'Ayunga on for Mandron, 73'Dijksteel on for Nlundulu and Tanser on for John, 81'Klidje on for Boyle and Campbell on for McGrath, 69'Chaiwa on for Barlaser, 78'Hoilett on for Bowie, 84'Obita on for N. Cadden, 85'Mulligan 24'C. Cadden 53'Chaiwa 80'Hibernian 1.62St. Mirren 0.7800.511.520153045607590HTMcMenamin on for Richardson and Idowu on for Donnelly, 58'Ayunga on for Mandron, 73'Dijksteel on for Nlundulu and Tanser on for John, 81'Klidje on for Boyle and Campbell on for McGrath, 69'Chaiwa on for Barlaser, 78'Hoilett on for Bowie, 84'Obita on for N. Cadden, 85'Mulligan 24'C. Cadden 53'Chaiwa 80'1.620.78St. MirrenHibernian

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

St. MirrenHibernian

0.78 −0.21xG1.62 −0.28
1.21 +0.28xG on target1.52 −0.23
10 −1Shots15 +1
5 +1.7Shots on target5 −0.7
1 −0.7Big chances2 −1.1
20 −3Touches in the opposition box34 +10
46% +2Possession54% +5
331 +1Passes397 −14
80% +7Pass accuracy85% +5
39% −10Field tilt61% +13
50 +16Final-third entries39 +3
9 −2Box entries20 +10
15.2 −3Passes per defensive action25.2 +8
5 −1.1Corners6 +0.9
13 +1Tackles3 −8
4 −3.2Interceptions4 −4.3
29 −2Clearances34 +5
4 +0.5Saves5 +2.2
13 +0.7Fouls12 +2.1
3 +0.8Offsides0 −2.2

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

St. Mirren

Mandron 70', 0.16 xGDonnelly 28', 0.15 xGAyunga 88', 0.12 xGDijksteel 90', 0.10 xGBaccus 37', 0.09 xGBaccus 46', 0.05 xGDonnelly 44', 0.04 xGPhillips 43', 0.03 xGDonnelly 13', 0.02 xGBaccus 68', 0.01 xG19%0.15 xGSix-yard box: 1 shot, 0.15 xG, 0 goals38%0.29 xGCentral box: 3 shots, 0.29 xG, 0 goals39%0.30 xGWide in the box: 4 shots, 0.30 xG, 0 goals3%0.02 xGEdge of the box: 1 shot, 0.02 xG, 0 goals1%0.01 xGFurther out: 1 shot, 0.01 xG, 0 goals

Hibernian

Klidje 72', 0.65 xGMulligan 17', 0.15 xGN. Cadden 42', 0.13 xGC. Cadden 36', 0.10 xGCampbell 90+3', 0.09 xGHanley 57', 0.06 xGObita 90+4', 0.05 xGN. Cadden 51', 0.04 xGObita 89', 0.04 xGMulligan 9', 0.03 xGBarlaser 52', 0.03 xGMulligan 65', 0.03 xGMulligan 24', 0.17 xG, goalC. Cadden 53', 0.04 xG, goalChaiwa 80', 0.03 xG, goal48%0.78 xGSix-yard box: 2 shots, 0.78 xG, 0 goals29%0.47 xGCentral box: 4 shots, 0.47 xG, 1 goal18%0.29 xGWide in the box: 6 shots, 0.29 xG, 1 goal5%0.08 xGEdge of the box: 3 shots, 0.08 xG, 1 goal0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

St. MirrenHibernian

0.33 6 shots, 0 goalsOpen play0.61 9 shots, 2 goals
0.26 2 shots, 0 goalsCounter-attacks0.90 3 shots, 0 goals
0.19 2 shots, 0 goalsSet pieces0.11 3 shots, 1 goal

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
24 min (26%) · St. Mirren 0.02, Hibernian 0.34 xG
Hibernian ahead
70 min (74%) · St. Mirren 0.76, Hibernian 1.28 xG

Line-ups

12252128842524149GeorgeFraserKingFreckletonRichardsonPhillipsDonnellyBaccusJohnNlunduluMandronYellow cardYellow cardYellow card58'58'81'81'73'St. Mirren 3-5-2Stephen Robinson1334152212201719109SallingerBushiriHanleyIredaleBarlaserC. CaddenMulliganMcGrathN. CaddenBoyleBowieYellow cardGoalGoal78'69'85'69'84'Hibernian 3-1-4-2David Gray

St. Mirren substitutes

  • 58' McMenamin for Richardson
  • 58' Idowu for Donnelly · yellow card 90+1'
  • 73' Ayunga for Mandron
  • 81' Dijksteel for Nlundulu
  • 81' Tanser for John

Hibernian substitutes

  • 69' Campbell for McGrath · 1 assist
  • 69' Klidje for Boyle
  • 78' Chaiwa for Barlaser · goal 80'
  • 84' Hoilett for Bowie
  • 85' Obita for N. Cadden

Players

St. Mirren

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
GeorgeGK900.000.0100.0540
FraserCB900.000.0000.05611
King CB900.000.0400.18148
FreckletonCB900.000.0210.10611
RichardsonRWB580.000.0110.0432
PhillipsCM900.030.0310.0477
DonnellyCM580.210.0810.1011
Baccus CM900.150.0620.0262
John LWB810.000.1610.0220
NlunduluST810.000.0310.0120
MandronST730.160.000−0.0212
McMenaminMF320.000.0800.0832
Idowu MF320.000.0010.0121
AyungaFW170.120.0000.0210
DijksteelMF90.100.0000.0212
TanserMF90.000.0000.0111

Hibernian

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
SallingerGK900.000.0000.0332
Bushiri CB900.000.0000.0217
HanleyCB900.060.0000.0429
IredaleCB900.000.0500.10101
BarlaserDM780.030.2410.22105
C. CaddenRWB9010.140.2420.2197
MulliganCM9010.370.1110.1882
McGrathCM6910.000.0720.0831
N. CaddenLWB850.160.1600.2856
BoyleST690.000.1120.0820
BowieST8410.000.062−0.1311
CampbellMF2110.090.021−0.0220
KlidjeFW210.650.051−0.0100
ChaiwaMF1210.030.001−0.0100
HoilettMF60.000.1000.0010
ObitaMF50.090.0000.0220

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

St. Mirren

George and Fraser: 3 passesKing and Richardson: 3 passesFraser and Richardson: 3 passesJohn and Donnelly: 3 passesBaccus and Nlundulu: 3 passesPhillips and Nlundulu: 3 passesGeorge and Phillips: 4 passesFreckleton and Baccus: 4 passesFraser and Phillips: 4 passesRichardson and Baccus: 4 passesBaccus and Donnelly: 4 passesPhillips and Donnelly: 4 passesFreckleton and Mandron: 5 passesRichardson and Donnelly: 5 passesKing and Phillips: 6 passesJohn and Baccus: 6 passesKing and Mandron: 7 passesFreckleton and John: 7 passesKing and Fraser: 8 passesRichardson and Phillips: 8 passesKing and Freckleton: 15 passesGeorge and King: 16 passesGeorge: 15 completed passesKing: 31 completed passesFreckleton: 20 completed passesFraser: 16 completed passesRichardson: 14 completed passesJohn: 11 completed passesBaccus: 17 completed passesPhillips: 17 completed passesDonnelly: 9 completed passesMandron: 6 completed passesNlundulu: 6 completed passes15212222425884914GeorgeKingFreckletonFraserRichardsonJohnBaccusPhillipsDonnellyMandronNlunduluStarters until 58' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Hibernian

Sallinger and Bushiri: 4 passesC. Cadden and Boyle: 4 passesSallinger and Iredale: 5 passesBushiri and Barlaser: 5 passesBushiri and C. Cadden: 5 passesN. Cadden and Boyle: 5 passesIredale and Mulligan: 6 passesIredale and Boyle: 6 passesBarlaser and McGrath: 6 passesC. Cadden and McGrath: 6 passesMcGrath and N. Cadden: 6 passesBushiri and Hanley: 7 passesBarlaser and C. Cadden: 7 passesMcGrath and Mulligan: 8 passesIredale and McGrath: 9 passesBarlaser and Mulligan: 10 passesIredale and Barlaser: 11 passesBarlaser and N. Cadden: 12 passesHanley and Barlaser: 13 passesC. Cadden and Mulligan: 14 passesIredale and N. Cadden: 19 passesSallinger and Hanley: 20 passesIredale and Hanley: 20 passesSallinger: 23 completed passesIredale: 36 completed passesBushiri: 11 completed passesHanley: 33 completed passesBarlaser: 38 completed passesC. Cadden: 18 completed passesMcGrath: 23 completed passesMulligan: 24 completed passesN. Cadden: 24 completed passesBoyle: 12 completed passesBowie: 5 completed passes1153342212172019109SallingerIredaleBushiriHanleyBarlaserC. CaddenMcGrathMulliganN. CaddenBoyleBowieStarters until 69' · lines join pairs with 4+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

St. Mirren

FromToPasses
FreckletonKing12
GeorgeKing11
KingFreckleton10
KingGeorge9
KingFraser7

Hibernian

FromToPasses
SallingerHanley18
HanleyIredale17
N. CaddenIredale11
HanleyBarlaser10
IredaleHanley9

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

St. Mirren

2−2.47−1.016−1.96+1.67+0.87−0.89+4.46−0.94−1.15−0.22−2.21−2.06+2.72−2.15+1.04+1.62−1.24+2.20−2.10−2.80−1.71−0.81−0.95+2.41+0.10−0.51+0.10−0.10−0.33−4.1FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 10 matches

Hibernian

3−0.54−1.92−2.58+2.59+2.34−2.49+3.64−1.75+1.02−1.65+1.52−1.71−3.53−1.11−1.46+4.01−0.63+1.63+2.31−0.11−1.30−0.50−0.50−0.50−0.72+1.310−4.03−4.43−3.90−3.5FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 11 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

St. Mirren

0.010.010.010.050.060.010.010.030.020.020.070.030.030.030.050.030.02−0.020.02−0.020.010.020.21LessMore

Hibernian

0.020.010.010.020.050.010.030.010.030.050.040.04−0.010.050.040.060.120.140.12−0.16−0.100.250.26LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.36AttackSt. Mirren1.15 → 1.13Hibernian1.54 → 1.56Defence (lower is better)St. Mirren1.45 → 1.48Hibernian1.17 → 1.15

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
St. Mirren
Top six24%18%−6
11th10%12%+2
Bottom5%6%+1
Hibernian
Top six92%96%+4

From the forecast before the match (8 November 2025): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

St. MirrenHibernian
Expected goals1.171.46
Win30%43%
Expected Points1.161.57
Clean sheet23%31%

St. Mirren 30%Draw 27%Hibernian 43%

Most likely score 1–1, 13%. Both sides score 53%.

Hibernian goalsSt. Mirren goals0123456+0123456+8%8%4%1%8%9%4%2%5%7%5%3%2%3%2%1%10%13%

From the forecast as it stood on 8 November 2025: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowSt. Mirren winDrawHibernian win
St. Mirren
Top six24%34%22%18%
11th10%7%10%12%
Bottom5%2%5%6%
Hibernian
Top six92%87%92%96%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

St. Mirren

  1. D2–229 OctHearts (H)xG 1.01–1.57
  2. L1–325 OctDundee United (A)xG 2.28–2.21
  3. L0–118 OctAberdeen (H)xG 0.48–2.05
  4. L0–24 OctKilmarnock (A)xG 0.43–2.15
  5. W1–027 SepDundee FC (H)xG 0.74–0.62
  6. W2–113 SepFalkirk (A)xG 1.57–0.70

Hibernian

  1. D2–21 NovLivingston (A)xG 0.76–1.87
  2. L0–129 OctRangers (H)xG 2.01–0.52
  3. W2–126 OctAberdeen (A)xG 3.20–1.24
  4. W4–018 OctLivingston (H)xG 2.80–0.43
  5. L0–14 OctHearts (A)xG 0.39–0.80
  6. D0–027 SepCeltic (A)xG 0.70–2.80

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

St. MirrenHibernian
Position8th4th
Played1011
Won, drawn, lost2–⁠4–⁠43–⁠6–⁠2
Points10 (1.00 per game)15 (1.36 per game)
Expected Points per game1.011.90
Goals8–⁠1218–⁠14
xG per game0.99–⁠1.521.90–⁠1.15
Home: points, xG per game1.20, 0.91–⁠1.271.20, 2.41–⁠0.92
Away: points, xG per game0.80, 1.07–⁠1.781.50, 1.48–⁠1.34
ManagerStephen Robinson (81)David Gray (51)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.36AttackSt. Mirren1.15, 9thHibernian1.54, 4thDefence (lower is better)St. Mirren1.45, 7thHibernian1.17, 4th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovSt. Mirren attack: 1.15Hibernian attack: 1.541.541.15HibernianSt. MirrenDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovSt. Mirren defence: 1.45Hibernian defence: 1.171.451.17

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

St. MirrenHibernian
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−29%+7%−4%+4%
Counter-attacks−66%+101%+133%+5%
Set pieces+18%−7%+50%−56%
Penalties−100%−47%+94%−52%
Headers+22%+16%+7%−19%
Left side−27%+22%+57%+7%
Centre−11%+25%+24%−21%
Right side−37%−13%+13%−17%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

St. Mirren attacking

St. Mirren createdHibernian concededLeft side−27%−17%Centre−11%−21%Right side−37%+7%Open play−29%+4%Counter-attacks−66%+5%Set pieces+18%−56%Headers+22%−19%

Hibernian attacking

Hibernian createdSt. Mirren concededLeft side+57%−13%Centre+24%+25%Right side+13%+22%Open play−4%+7%Counter-attacks+133%+101%Set pieces+50%−7%Headers+7%+16%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

St. MirrenHibernian

0.99xG1.90
1.52xG against1.15
44%Possession49%
11.1Shots13.6
13.0Shots against11.0
3.3Shots on target5.7
1.7Big chances3.1
22.6Touches in the opposition box23.9
330Passes412
72%Pass accuracy80%
6.1Corners5.1
48%Field tilt48%
34.2Final-third entries35.6
11.4Box entries10.5
18.6Passes per defensive action17.1

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

St. Mirren

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level651.081.40
Ahead180.961.85
Behind70.271.84

Hibernian

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level461.301.16
Ahead302.181.31
Behind143.380.75

xG by period

St. Mirren

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.080.160–0
16–300.200.192–1
31–450.180.252–3
46–600.140.161–0
61–750.160.372–2
76–900.230.391–6

Hibernian

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.190.112–2
16–300.330.115–0
31–450.240.343–5
46–600.530.163–2
61–750.250.101–2
76–900.360.334–3

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

St. Mirren

GKCBCBCBRWBCMCMCMLWBSTSTGeorge 10Fraser 8King 4Gogic 9Freckleton 9Richardson 8McMena… 2McMenaminPhillips 10Baccus 7Donnelly 2Taylor 1O'Hara 8Idowu 2John 10Ayunga 6Nlundulu 3Idowu 2Mandron 93-5-2 in 7 of 10 starts

Formations: 3-5-2 (7), 5-3-2 (3)

Hibernian

GKCBCBCBRWBCMCMLWBAMSTSTSallinger 7Smith 4O'Hora 8Hanley 8Bushiri 7Iredale 9Obita 1C. Cadden 7Mulligan 4Mulligan 6McGrath 4Chaiwa 3Barlaser 5Levitt 4N. Cadden 6Obita 5Boyle 4McGrath 2Barlaser 2Bowie 9Boyle 3Klidje 5Hoilett 3McGrath 23-4-1-2 in 3 of 11 starts

Formations: 3-4-1-2 (3), 3-1-4-2 (2), 3-4-2-1 (2), 3-4-3 (2), 5-3-2 (1), 5-4-1 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
31 August 2025Hibernian1–1St. MirrenxG 2.42–0.85
14 May 2025St. Mirren2–2HibernianxG 0.70–1.34
16 February 2025St. Mirren0–0HibernianxG 0.70–0.37
9 November 2024Hibernian1–2St. MirrenxG 2.28–2.18
4 August 2024St. Mirren3–0HibernianxG 1.20–1.58
3 February 2024Hibernian0–3St. MirrenxG 0.41–2.40

19 league meetings since 2020/21: St. Mirren won 6, Hibernian won 7, and 6 were drawn. Goals 23–24 and xG 1.08–1.28 per game.

Key players

St. Mirren

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Mandron9750120.190.11
Ayunga6533100.230.04
John10890120.020.22
O'Hara8669000.080.13

Hibernian

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Klidje5455210.670.05
McGrath8665410.420.24
Bowie9760310.370.17
Boyle7616200.380.10

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.