Digressive Celts

Matches › 2024/25

Hibernian 1–2 St. Mirren

Saturday 9 November 2024, 15:00 · Easter Road Stadium · Round 12 · Half-time 0–2 · Referee Iain Snedden · Attendance 15,594

Hibernian N. Cadden 90+4' (pen)

St. Mirren McMenamin 16', 31'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

HibernianSt. Mirren
Goals12
xG2.282.18
Non-penalty xG0.702.18
Expected Points1.451.25

Hibernian 38%Draw 30%St. Mirren 32%

Most likely score 2–2, 18%. Final score 1–2, 7%.

St. Mirren goalsHibernian goals0123456+0123456+5%7%4%1%11%10%3%7%10%7%2%2%3%2%18%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

01230153045607590HTBushiri on for O'Hora, N. Cadden on for Kwon, and Levitt on for Triantis, 46'Gayle on for Hoilett and McKirdy on for Boyle, 66'Ayunga on for McMenamin and Mandron on for Olusanya, 66'Smyth on for Kiltie, 67'N. Cadden 90+4' (pen)McMenamin 16'McMenamin 31'Hibernian 2.28St. Mirren 2.1801230153045607590HTBushiri on for O'Hora, N. Cadden on for Kwon, and Levitt on for Triantis, 46'Gayle on for Hoilett and McKirdy on for Boyle, 66'Ayunga on for McMenamin and Mandron on for Olusanya, 66'Smyth on for Kiltie, 67'N. Cadden 90+4' (pen)McMenamin 16'McMenamin 31'2.282.18HibernianSt. Mirren

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

HibernianSt. Mirren

2.28 +1.15xG2.18 +1.09
0.70Non-penalty xG2.18
1.48 +0.35xG on target1.63 +0.45
12 −1Shots15 +4
2 −1.5Shots on target5 +1.5
2 +0.4Big chances4 +1.9
23 +2Touches in the opposition box19 −1
70% +22Possession30% −14
505 +172Passes221 −94
83% +10Pass accuracy55% −14
75% +23Field tilt25% −14
53 +18Final-third entries21 −9
12 +2.7Box entries6 −3.2
9.6 −5Passes per defensive action16.2 0
5 −1.0Corners5 +0.8
11 −3Tackles18 +2
4 −3.3Interceptions11 +2.9
20 −6Clearances36 +8
3 +0.9Saves1 −1.2
11 −1Fouls13 +1
4 +2.7Offsides4 +1.8

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Hibernian

Youan 28', 0.13 xGN. Cadden 90+5', 0.13 xGN. Cadden 86', 0.09 xGYouan 87', 0.08 xGBoyle 45+2', 0.07 xGBoyle 58', 0.07 xGN. Cadden 48', 0.05 xGNewell 90+2', 0.05 xGTriantis 40', 0.01 xGMcKirdy 70', 0.01 xG0%0.00 xGSix-yard box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals80%0.55 xGCentral box: 6 shots, 0.55 xG, 0 goals1%0.01 xGWide in the box: 1 shot, 0.01 xG, 0 goals17%0.12 xGEdge of the box: 2 shots, 0.12 xG, 0 goals1%0.01 xGFurther out: 1 shot, 0.01 xG, 0 goals

St. Mirren

Gogic 60', 0.96 xGPhillips 39', 0.20 xGTaylor 13', 0.12 xGOlusanya 43', 0.12 xGTaylor 60', 0.08 xGPhillips 53', 0.06 xGAyunga 88', 0.05 xGTanser 84', 0.04 xGMandron 68', 0.03 xGSmyth 85', 0.03 xGAyunga 76', 0.02 xGPhillips 77', 0.02 xGGogic 40', 0.01 xGMcMenamin 16', 0.33 xG, goalMcMenamin 31', 0.14 xG, goal63%1.36 xGSix-yard box: 3 shots, 1.36 xG, 1 goal20%0.43 xGCentral box: 3 shots, 0.43 xG, 0 goals10%0.21 xGWide in the box: 4 shots, 0.21 xG, 1 goal8%0.17 xGEdge of the box: 5 shots, 0.17 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

HibernianSt. Mirren

0.57 8 shots, 0 goalsOpen play0.75 6 shots, 2 goals
0.00 0 shots, 0 goalsCounter-attacks0.18 3 shots, 0 goals
0.13 2 shots, 0 goalsSet pieces1.25 6 shots, 0 goals
1.58 2 shots, 1 goalPenalties0.00 0 shots, 0 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
16 min (16%) · Hibernian 0.00, St. Mirren 0.44 xG
St. Mirren ahead
81 min (84%) · Hibernian 2.28, St. Mirren 1.74 xG

Line-ups

112452118261110723BursikC. CaddenEkpitetaO'HoraObitaKwonTriantisNewellBoyleYouanHoilettYellow card46'46'46'66'66'Hibernian 4-3-3David Gray122135428863102011BalcombeFraserGogicTaylorBwomonoPhillipsO'HaraTanserMcMenaminOlusanyaKiltieYellow cardYellow cardGoalGoal66'66'67'St. Mirren 3-4-3Stephen Robinson

Hibernian substitutes

  • 46' N. Cadden for Kwon · goal 90+4' (pen)
  • 46' Bushiri for O'Hora · yellow card 72'
  • 46' Levitt for Triantis
  • 66' Gayle for Hoilett
  • 66' McKirdy for Boyle

St. Mirren substitutes

  • 66' Ayunga for McMenamin
  • 66' Mandron for Olusanya
  • 67' Smyth for Kiltie

Players

Hibernian

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
BursikGK900.000.0000.0330
C. CaddenRB900.000.0200.08112
EkpitetaCB900.000.0100.0538
O'HoraCB460.000.0000.0106
ObitaLB900.000.0510.17122
KwonCM460.000.0910.0202
TriantisCM460.010.0100.0425
Newell CM900.050.1620.1143
BoyleRW660.930.0100.1242
YouanST900.210.2320.3280
HoilettLW660.000.0710.0632
N. CaddenDF4411.060.1210.0631
Bushiri DF440.000.0000.0316
LevittMF440.000.0510.0851
GayleFW240.000.0000.0000
McKirdyFW240.010.000−0.0100

St. Mirren

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
Balcombe GK900.000.0000.0224
FraserCB900.000.0000.02310
GogicCB900.960.0000.00110
TaylorCB900.200.0000.0229
Bwomono RWB900.000.0000.0226
PhillipsCM900.280.0210.0213
O'HaraCM900.000.2640.2445
TanserLWB9010.040.6820.40513
McMenaminRW6620.460.0810.0612
OlusanyaST660.120.000−0.0100
KiltieLW670.000.0100.0212
AyungaFW240.070.0110.0142
MandronFW240.030.0400.0400
SmythMF230.030.0110.0133

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Hibernian

C. Cadden and Newell: 4 passesC. Cadden and Boyle: 4 passesC. Cadden and Youan: 4 passesNewell and Youan: 4 passesTriantis and Newell: 5 passesKwon and Hoilett: 5 passesBursik and Ekpiteta: 6 passesC. Cadden and Kwon: 6 passesO'Hora and Triantis: 6 passesO'Hora and Newell: 6 passesObita and Youan: 6 passesKwon and Youan: 6 passesObita and Newell: 8 passesNewell and Hoilett: 8 passesBursik and O'Hora: 10 passesC. Cadden and Triantis: 10 passesC. Cadden and Ekpiteta: 11 passesObita and Triantis: 11 passesObita and Hoilett: 12 passesO'Hora and Obita: 13 passesO'Hora and Ekpiteta: 14 passesBursik: 13 completed passesC. Cadden: 23 completed passesO'Hora: 29 completed passesEkpiteta: 24 completed passesObita: 29 completed passesTriantis: 21 completed passesNewell: 21 completed passesKwon: 15 completed passesBoyle: 4 completed passesYouan: 14 completed passesHoilett: 14 completed passes112542126111810723BursikC. CaddenO'HoraEkpitetaObitaTriantisNewellKwonBoyleYouanHoilettStarters until 46' · lines join pairs with 4+ passes

St. Mirren

Bwomono and Olusanya: 3 passesPhillips and McMenamin: 3 passesPhillips and Kiltie: 3 passesO'Hara and Kiltie: 3 passesGogic and O'Hara: 4 passesBwomono and Phillips: 4 passesO'Hara and McMenamin: 4 passesO'Hara and Olusanya: 4 passesTaylor and Tanser: 5 passesTanser and McMenamin: 5 passesFraser and Bwomono: 6 passesTanser and O'Hara: 6 passesBalcombe: 4 completed passesGogic: 5 completed passesTaylor: 9 completed passesFraser: 10 completed passesBwomono: 6 completed passesTanser: 9 completed passesPhillips: 10 completed passesO'Hara: 16 completed passesMcMenamin: 9 completed passesOlusanya: 4 completed passesKiltie: 4 completed passes113522423886102011BalcombeGogicTaylorFraserBwomonoTanserPhillipsO'HaraMcMenaminOlusanyaKiltieStarters until 66' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Hibernian

FromToPasses
EkpitetaC. Cadden17
ObitaN. Cadden14
C. CaddenYouan13
BushiriObita13
C. CaddenEkpiteta11

St. Mirren

FromToPasses
O'HaraTanser6
FraserBwomono5
PhillipsBwomono5
TanserO'Hara5
O'HaraPhillips3

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Hibernian

3−1.28+2.64−3.32−2.26+1.79+2.93−3.15−1.83−2.54+0.75+1.83−1.69+4.93−1.03−0.71−1.93−0.43−1.72+0.31−0.10−0.90−1.12−0.20−0.60−0.40−1.30−0.30−0.39−6.41−5.9FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 11 matches

St. Mirren

7+2.66−1.322+7.76−1.86+0.77−0.68+2.15+0.72−4.313+4.03−3.85+1.24+0.25+0.86−0.52−1.75+1.82−0.82−0.51−3.55+3.10−1.91+0.12+1.45+3.21+0.71+0.61−0.11+0.70−0.6FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 12 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Hibernian

0.010.010.010.020.030.010.020.010.060.030.040.010.060.070.060.060.100.100.100.040.050.10−0.02−0.02−0.010.24LessMore

St. Mirren

0.010.010.010.020.010.010.010.020.010.020.040.020.050.030.010.020.040.030.150.36LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.34AttackHibernian1.20 → 1.20St. Mirren1.11 → 1.13Defence (lower is better)Hibernian1.38 → 1.40St. Mirren1.43 → 1.43

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Hibernian
Top six24%13%−11
11th12%17%+5
Bottom10%15%+5
St. Mirren
Top six25%36%+11
11th13%8%−5
Bottom10%6%−4

From the forecast before the match (9 November 2024): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

HibernianSt. Mirren
Expected goals1.501.03
Win47%25%
Expected Points1.701.03
Clean sheet36%22%

Hibernian 47%Draw 27%St. Mirren 25%

Most likely score 1–1, 13%. Both sides score 51%.

St. Mirren goalsHibernian goals0123456+0123456+9%8%4%1%6%2%9%9%5%2%4%5%2%2%2%11%13%

From the forecast as it stood on 9 November 2024: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowHibernian winDrawSt. Mirren win
Hibernian
Top six24%32%20%13%
11th12%9%12%17%
Bottom10%6%11%15%
St. Mirren
Top six25%18%25%36%
11th13%15%12%8%
Bottom10%13%10%6%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Hibernian

  1. D1–13 NovDundee United (H)xG 1.09–1.31
  2. D0–030 OctRoss County (A)xG 0.50–0.50
  3. D1–127 OctHearts (H)xG 1.97–1.17
  4. L2–319 OctDundee United (A)xG 0.71–1.79
  5. L1–25 OctMotherwell (H)xG 1.35–1.23
  6. L0–129 SepRangers (A)xG 2.16–1.78

St. Mirren

  1. D0–02 NovRoss County (H)xG 1.25–0.71
  2. W3–130 OctSt. Johnstone (H)xG 0.93–0.73
  3. L1–227 OctRangers (A)xG 0.63–2.29
  4. L0–419 OctHearts (A)xG 0.24–1.73
  5. L0–15 OctDundee United (H)xG 1.07–0.97
  6. L1–228 SepMotherwell (A)xG 2.33–2.07

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

HibernianSt. Mirren
Position12th7th
Played1112
Won, drawn, lost1–⁠5–⁠53–⁠3–⁠6
Points8 (0.73 per game)12 (1.00 per game)
Expected Points per game1.221.20
Goals10–⁠1615–⁠21
xG per game1.13–⁠1.381.09–⁠1.41
Home: points, xG per game1.00, 1.17–⁠1.231.57, 1.04–⁠1.06
Away: points, xG per game0.40, 1.08–⁠1.560.20, 1.17–⁠1.89
ManagerDavid Gray (13)Stephen Robinson (45)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.34AttackHibernian1.20, 7thSt. Mirren1.11, 9thDefence (lower is better)Hibernian1.38, 6thSt. Mirren1.43, 8th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovHibernian attack: 1.20St. Mirren attack: 1.111.201.11St. MirrenHibernianDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovHibernian defence: 1.38St. Mirren defence: 1.431.431.38

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

HibernianSt. Mirren
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−35%−22%−37%+7%
Counter-attacks−71%+182%average+37%
Set pieces+46%−3%−13%+4%
Penalties−40%+20%+65%−45%
Headers−14%−11%−30%−14%
Left side−24%−2%−32%−2%
Centre−20%+3%−39%+3%
Right side+6%−2%+4%+36%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Hibernian attacking

Hibernian createdSt. Mirren concededLeft side−24%+36%Centre−20%+3%Right side+6%−2%Open play−35%+7%Counter-attacks−71%+37%Set pieces+46%+4%Headers−14%−14%

St. Mirren attacking

St. Mirren createdHibernian concededLeft side−32%−2%Centre−39%+3%Right side+4%−2%Open play−37%−22%Counter-attacksaverage+182%Set pieces−13%−3%Headers−30%−11%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

HibernianSt. Mirren

1.13xG1.09
1.38xG against1.41
48%Possession44%
12.7Shots11.1
11.5Shots against11.8
3.5Shots on target3.5
1.6Big chances2.1
21.4Touches in the opposition box20.2
334Passes315
73%Pass accuracy68%
6.0Corners4.2
52%Field tilt39%
35.5Final-third entries30.4
9.3Box entries9.2
14.8Passes per defensive action16.4

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Hibernian

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level481.151.17
Ahead180.941.80
Behind241.211.49

St. Mirren

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level461.041.30
Ahead171.211.40
Behind271.111.60

xG by period

Hibernian

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.100.240–2
16–300.140.201–2
31–450.310.053–1
46–600.150.152–2
61–750.280.204–0
76–900.150.540–9

St. Mirren

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.080.293–5
16–300.120.203–3
31–450.470.214–3
46–600.190.132–3
61–750.090.250–4
76–900.140.333–3

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Hibernian

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTBursik 11Miller 10Cadden 1Ekpiteta 11O'Hora 11Obita 11Kwon 8Campbell 1Moriah-Welsh 1Newell 7Triantis 5Boyle 7Cadden 3Youan 1Molotnikov 3Triantis 2Kukharevych 2Hoilett 4Molotnikov 3Youan 2Kukharevych 7Hoilett 1Gayle 14-2-3-1 in 7 of 11 starts

Formations: 4-2-3-1 (7), 4-3-3 (2), 4-4-2 (2)

St. Mirren

GKCBCBCBRWBCMCMCMLWBSTSTBalcombe 12Fraser 10Kiltie 1Idowu 1Gogic 11Iacovitti 2Taylor 7Dunne 4Rooney 6Bwomono 4Fraser 2Phillips 9Adeniran 2Boyd-Mun… 7Boyd-MunceScott 3Smyth 1O'Hara 10Idowu 3Gogic 1Tanser 8Brown 3Taylor 1Olusanya 12van Veen 2Scott 1Mandron 4Kiltie 3Ayunga 23-5-2 in 6 of 12 starts

Formations: 3-5-2 (6), 3-4-3 (3), 4-3-3 (2), 3-1-4-2 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
4 August 2024St. Mirren3–0HibernianxG 1.20–1.58
3 February 2024Hibernian0–3St. MirrenxG 0.41–2.40
8 November 2023St. Mirren2–2HibernianxG 1.60–0.89
6 August 2023Hibernian2–3St. MirrenxG 1.41–1.55
6 May 2023Hibernian2–1St. MirrenxG 1.67–1.61
4 February 2023St. Mirren0–1HibernianxG 0.36–0.64

15 league meetings since 2020/21: Hibernian won 7, St. Mirren won 5, and 3 were drawn. Goals 20–18 and xG 1.19–1.08 per game.

Key players

Hibernian

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Kukharevych9756200.390.02
Hoilett6526100.100.27
Boyle7679210.200.07
Obita11990020.000.17

St. Mirren

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Olusanya12862400.390.01
O'Hara10874210.190.10
Phillips9687110.160.09
Idowu4452100.140.06

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.