Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.
Match stats
FalkirkHibernian
3.64 +2.49xG0.73 −1.01
3.37 +2.29xG on target0.93 −0.69
17 +5Shots10 −3
5 +1.0Shots on target4 −1.3
5 +3.2Big chances2 −0.6
29 +9Touches in the opposition box12 −13
51% 0Possession49% +1
412 +12Passes398 −9
79% +3Pass accuracy74% −6
53% +7Field tilt47% 0
35 +1Final-third entries33 −4
14 +4Box entries6 −5
14.0 +1Passes per defensive action14.6 −3
7 +2.3Corners4 −1.1
22 +4Tackles14 +2
7 −2.1Interceptions10 +2.0
25 −4Clearances13 −16
3 −0.3Saves2 −1.1
14 +2Fouls14 +3
1 −1.1Offsides0 −1.8
The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.
Chance locations
Falkirk
Hibernian
Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.
xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.
Game state
17'43'51'83'90'
0–01–02–02–13–1
0'HTFT
Level
17 min (18%) · Falkirk 1.18, Hibernian 0.20 xG
Falkirk ahead
77 min (82%) · Falkirk 2.46, Hibernian 0.53 xG
Line-ups
Falkirk substitutes
75'Marsh for Yeats · yellow card 90+4', 1 assist
79'Ross for Wilson
79'Williams for Miller
90'Cartwright for Spencer
90'Graham for Stewart
Hibernian substitutes
46'Youan for Iredale
73'Molotnikov for Megwa
84'Levitt for Barlaser
Players
Falkirk
Player
Pos
Min
G
A
xG
xA
KP
xT
Prog
Def
Bain
GK
90
0.00
0.00
0
0.05
2
1
Adams
RB
90
0.15
0.13
0
0.45
6
4
Allan
CB
90
0.19
0.01
0
0.03
5
9
Henderson
CB
90
0.00
0.00
0
0.05
6
14
McCann
LB
90
0.00
0.01
0
0.06
6
1
Spencer
DM
90
0.03
0.04
2
0.08
6
9
Tait
DM
90
0.04
0.12
0
0.15
12
3
Wilson
RW
79
0.18
0.00
0
0.03
1
9
Yeats
AM
75
0.00
0.06
3
0.04
4
0
Miller
LW
79
2
0.47
0.91
4
0.50
9
3
Stewart
ST
90
3
2.58
0.02
3
0.06
0
0
Marsh
FW
15
1
0.00
0.30
1
0.16
1
1
Ross
FW
11
0.00
0.01
0
0.01
0
1
Williams
FW
11
0.00
0.00
0
0.00
1
1
Cartwright
MF
0
0.00
0.00
0
0.00
0
0
Graham
FW
0
0.00
0.00
0
0.00
0
0
Hibernian
Player
Pos
Min
G
A
xG
xA
KP
xT
Prog
Def
Sallinger
GK
90
0.00
0.00
0
0.03
4
2
Bushiri
CB
90
1
0.17
0.01
0
0.10
10
6
Hanley
CB
90
0.07
0.01
0
0.07
5
7
Iredale
CB
46
0.00
0.01
0
0.06
6
2
Megwa
RWB
73
0.02
0.01
0
0.02
4
2
Chaiwa
CM
90
0.00
0.02
0
−0.01
3
5
Barlaser
CM
84
0.07
0.02
0
0.03
4
5
Obita
LWB
90
1
0.04
0.35
3
0.22
4
4
Jamie McGrath
AM
90
0.11
0.03
0
0.02
2
6
Boyle
ST
90
0.09
0.03
1
−0.01
1
1
Bowie
ST
90
0.09
0.01
0
0.01
0
1
Youan
FW
44
0.00
0.05
0
−0.05
2
2
Molotnikov
MF
17
0.05
0.00
0
0.02
1
0
Levitt
MF
6
0.00
0.00
0
0.00
0
0
Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.
Pass networks
Falkirk
Hibernian
Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.
Passing combinations
Falkirk
From
To
Passes
Henderson
Bain
20
Bain
Henderson
12
Allan
Bain
12
Bain
McCann
12
McCann
Miller
11
Hibernian
From
To
Passes
Hanley
Bushiri
15
Bushiri
Hanley
13
Hanley
Iredale
11
Megwa
Chaiwa
11
Bushiri
Chaiwa
9
The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.
Defensive actions
Falkirk
Against its average of 22 matches
Hibernian
Against its average of 22 matches
Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.
Threat
Falkirk
Hibernian
Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.
Ratings
The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.
League probabilities
Chance
Before
With this result
Change
Falkirk
Top six
73%
83%
+10
Hibernian
Top six
>99%
99%
−1
Dundee United
Top six
13%
8%
−5
Aberdeen
Top six
13%
9%
−4
11th
2%
2%
0
From the forecast before the match (24 January 2026): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.
Pre-match
As things stood before kick-off.
Forecast
Measure
Falkirk
Hibernian
Expected goals
1.10
1.35
Win
30%
42%
Expected Points
1.18
1.53
Clean sheet
26%
33%
Falkirk 30%Draw 28%Hibernian 42%
Most likely score 1–1, 13%. Both sides score 50%.
From the forecast as it stood on 24 January 2026: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.
League probabilities by result
Chance
Now
Falkirk win
Draw
Hibernian win
Falkirk
Top six
73%
83%
74%
65%
Hibernian
Top six
>99%
99%
>99%
>99%
Dundee United
Top six
13%
8%
12%
17%
Aberdeen
Top six
13%
9%
13%
16%
11th
2%
2%
1%
2%
Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.
The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.
Season to date
Measure
Falkirk
Hibernian
Position
6th
5th
Played
22
22
Won, drawn, lost
8–6–8
9–8–5
Points
30 (1.36 per game)
35 (1.59 per game)
Expected Points per game
1.31
1.81
Goals
23–28
37–24
xG per game
1.15–1.34
1.74–1.11
Home: points, xG per game
1.27, 1.38–1.06
1.73, 2.04–0.94
Away: points, xG per game
1.45, 0.93–1.61
1.45, 1.44–1.28
Manager
John McGlynn (22)
David Gray (62)
League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.
Ratings
This season
The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.
Strengths and weaknesses
Chances
Falkirk
Hibernian
Created
Conceded
Created
Conceded
Open play
−6%
−5%
−1%
−8%
Counter-attacks
−14%
+27%
+109%
−6%
Set pieces
−23%
−21%
+20%
−46%
Penalties
−70%
+20%
+110%
−40%
Headers
−28%
+10%
+7%
−31%
Left side
−52%
−16%
+24%
+9%
Centre
−17%
−7%
+17%
−28%
Right side
+39%
+7%
+11%
−25%
xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.
Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.
Season averages
FalkirkHibernian
1.15xG1.74
1.34xG against1.11
50%Possession48%
11.9Shots13.4
12.3Shots against11.1
4.0Shots on target5.3
1.8Big chances2.6
19.7Touches in the opposition box25.1
400Passes407
76%Pass accuracy80%
4.7Corners5.1
46%Field tilt47%
34.2Final-third entries37.1
10.4Box entries11.3
12.6Passes per defensive action17.1
Per league match this season before kick-off.
Game state this season
Falkirk
State
Minutes per game
xG per 90
xG against per 90
Level
46
1.18
1.57
Ahead
17
1.08
0.63
Behind
27
1.15
1.40
Hibernian
State
Minutes per game
xG per 90
xG against per 90
Level
41
1.51
1.11
Ahead
32
1.88
1.15
Behind
17
2.04
1.02
xG by period
Falkirk
Minutes
xG per game
xG against
Goals
1–15
0.20
0.15
2–1
16–30
0.23
0.28
3–6
31–45
0.19
0.36
2–10
46–60
0.20
0.18
6–2
61–75
0.16
0.19
7–4
76–90
0.17
0.18
3–5
Hibernian
Minutes
xG per game
xG against
Goals
1–15
0.23
0.07
4–2
16–30
0.23
0.21
7–5
31–45
0.28
0.25
7–6
46–60
0.41
0.13
8–4
61–75
0.28
0.10
3–3
76–90
0.31
0.35
8–4
Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.
This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.
Digressive Celts