Digressive Celts

Matches › 2023/24

Hearts 1–1 Hibernian

Wednesday 28 February 2024, 19:45 · Tynecastle Park · Round 28 · Half-time 1–1 · Referee Kevin Clancy · Attendance 18,936

Hearts Shankland 45+2' (pen)

Hibernian Marcondes 28'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

HeartsHibernian
Goals11
xG1.702.66
Non-penalty xG0.912.66
Expected Points0.801.98

Hearts 19%Draw 22%Hibernian 59%

Most likely score 2–2, 10%. Final score 1–1, 7%.

Hibernian goalsHearts goals0123456+0123456+1%2%2%1%2%7%6%3%1%2%6%6%2%1%2%4%4%2%1%1%10%10%10%9%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

01230153045607590HTBaningime on for Fraser, 55'Grant on for Devlin, 65'Rowles on for Cochrane, 87'Pollock on for Vargas, 88'Youan on for Vente, 69'Levitt on for Moriah-Welsh, 77'Triantis on for Marcondes, 81'Shankland 45+2' (pen)Marcondes 28'Hibernian 2.66Hearts 1.7001230153045607590HTBaningime on for Fraser, 55'Grant on for Devlin, 65'Rowles on for Cochrane, 87'Pollock on for Vargas, 88'Youan on for Vente, 69'Levitt on for Moriah-Welsh, 77'Triantis on for Marcondes, 81'Shankland 45+2' (pen)Marcondes 28'2.661.70HeartsHibernian

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

HeartsHibernian

1.70 +0.48xG2.66 +1.54
0.91Non-penalty xG2.66
1.04 −0.29xG on target0.72 −0.42
14 +1Shots21 +10
2 −2.5Shots on target6 +2.2
1 −0.3Big chances3 +1.3
29 +3Touches in the opposition box34 +12
56% 0Possession44% −8
444 −17Passes332 −88
75% −1Pass accuracy72% −5
52% −3Field tilt48% +2
42 −1Final-third entries30 −6
16 +3Box entries16 +5
13.7 0Passes per defensive action24.4 +9
4 −2.7Corners9 +4.3
7 −7Tackles16 +2
8 +1.7Interceptions6 −1.7
27 +5Clearances38 +14
2 −0.8Saves1 −2.1
8 −3Fouls9 −1
2 +1.1Offsides1 −0.5

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Hearts

Shankland 72', 0.26 xGKingsley 33', 0.10 xGVargas 70', 0.08 xGVargas 78', 0.07 xGNieuwenhof 90', 0.07 xGVargas 19', 0.06 xGForrest 72', 0.06 xGShankland 36', 0.04 xGFraser 37', 0.04 xGShankland 70', 0.04 xGForrest 89', 0.04 xGForrest 66', 0.03 xGForrest 49', 0.02 xG0%0.00 xGSix-yard box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals45%0.41 xGCentral box: 3 shots, 0.41 xG, 0 goals24%0.22 xGWide in the box: 5 shots, 0.22 xG, 0 goals31%0.28 xGEdge of the box: 5 shots, 0.28 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Hibernian

Marcondes 45+4', 0.38 xGMaolida 71', 0.35 xGVente 53', 0.33 xGMaolida 45+5', 0.19 xGBoyle 28', 0.17 xGVente 45+5', 0.16 xGMarcondes 77', 0.11 xGNewell 4', 0.10 xGBoyle 90+5', 0.10 xGMaolida 81', 0.08 xGBushiri 3', 0.07 xGMoriah-Welsh 55', 0.05 xGVente 61', 0.03 xGBoyle 69', 0.03 xGMiller 76', 0.03 xGObita 79', 0.03 xGObita 84', 0.03 xGFish 26', 0.02 xGVente 51', 0.02 xGMaolida 58', 0.01 xGMarcondes 28', 0.38 xG, goal13%0.35 xGSix-yard box: 2 shots, 0.35 xG, 0 goals78%2.09 xGCentral box: 11 shots, 2.09 xG, 1 goal2%0.06 xGWide in the box: 2 shots, 0.06 xG, 0 goals5%0.14 xGEdge of the box: 5 shots, 0.14 xG, 0 goals1%0.03 xGFurther out: 1 shot, 0.03 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

HeartsHibernian

0.74 11 shots, 0 goalsOpen play1.97 13 shots, 1 goal
0.07 1 shot, 0 goalsCounter-attacks0.00 0 shots, 0 goals
0.10 1 shot, 0 goalsSet pieces0.69 8 shots, 0 goals
0.79 1 shot, 1 goalPenalties0.00 0 shots, 0 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
81 min (81%) · Hearts 0.74, Hibernian 2.66 xG
Hibernian ahead
19 min (19%) · Hearts 0.96, Hibernian 0.00 xG

Line-ups

281323198147729179ClarkAtkinsonKentKingsleyCochraneNieuwenhofDevlinVargasFraserForrestShanklandYellow cardYellow cardGoal87'65'88'55'Hearts 4-2-3-1Steven Naismith125332130111020179MarshallMillerFishBushiriObitaMoriah-WelshNewellBoyleMarcondesMaolidaVenteYellow cardGoal77'81'69'Hibernian 4-2-3-1Nick Montgomery

Hearts substitutes

  • 55' Baningime for Fraser
  • 65' Grant for Devlin
  • 87' Rowles for Cochrane
  • 88' Pollock for Vargas

Hibernian substitutes

  • 69' Youan for Vente
  • 77' Levitt for Moriah-Welsh
  • 81' Triantis for Marcondes

Players

Hearts

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
ClarkGK900.000.0000.0440
AtkinsonRB900.000.0210.0537
KentCB900.000.0600.141017
KingsleyCB900.100.1210.2657
CochraneLB870.000.0210.0324
NieuwenhofDM900.070.011−0.0236
Devlin DM650.000.0300.0645
Vargas RW880.210.0000.0940
FraserAM550.040.0200.0520
ForrestLW900.150.0110.0972
ShanklandST9011.130.0620.0931
BaningimeMF350.000.3200.2421
GrantMF250.000.0120.0543
RowlesDF30.000.0400.0500
PollockFW20.000.000−0.0100

Hibernian

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
MarshallGK900.000.0000.0230
MillerRB900.030.1210.16104
FishCB900.020.0000.03316
Bushiri CB900.070.2320.0558
ObitaLB900.060.0200.0646
Moriah-WelshDM770.050.0100.00111
NewellDM900.100.0420.09812
BoyleRW900.300.3420.3351
MarcondesAM8110.870.4320.1822
MaolidaLW900.620.2740.2991
VenteST690.540.021−0.0214
YouanFW210.000.2720.2141
LevittMF130.000.0210.0211
TriantisMF90.000.0000.0002

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Hearts

Atkinson and Kingsley: 4 passesKingsley and Forrest: 4 passesNieuwenhof and Fraser: 4 passesKent and Cochrane: 5 passesClark and Kent: 6 passesKent and Nieuwenhof: 6 passesKent and Fraser: 6 passesKent and Forrest: 6 passesDevlin and Fraser: 6 passesKent and Devlin: 7 passesCochrane and Nieuwenhof: 7 passesAtkinson and Nieuwenhof: 8 passesCochrane and Forrest: 8 passesAtkinson and Fraser: 9 passesKingsley and Devlin: 9 passesKingsley and Cochrane: 11 passesCochrane and Devlin: 11 passesAtkinson and Kent: 16 passesKent and Kingsley: 25 passesClark: 11 completed passesAtkinson: 30 completed passesKent: 39 completed passesKingsley: 33 completed passesCochrane: 27 completed passesDevlin: 26 completed passesNieuwenhof: 16 completed passesVargas: 3 completed passesFraser: 16 completed passesForrest: 11 completed passesShankland: 4 completed passes281323191487729179ClarkAtkinsonKentKingsleyCochraneDevlinNieuwenhofVargasFraserForrestShanklandStarters until 55' · lines join pairs with 4+ passes

Hibernian

Marshall and Miller: 4 passesMiller and Bushiri: 4 passesBushiri and Fish: 4 passesObita and Maolida: 4 passesNewell and Boyle: 4 passesNewell and Maolida: 4 passesMaolida and Vente: 4 passesMiller and Boyle: 5 passesMiller and Vente: 5 passesBushiri and Obita: 5 passesBushiri and Maolida: 5 passesMoriah-Welsh and Newell: 5 passesObita and Moriah-Welsh: 6 passesNewell and Marcondes: 6 passesBoyle and Vente: 6 passesMiller and Fish: 7 passesMiller and Moriah-Welsh: 7 passesMarcondes and Maolida: 8 passesMiller and Newell: 10 passesBushiri and Newell: 11 passesObita and Newell: 11 passesMarshall and Bushiri: 13 passesMarshall and Fish: 25 passesMarshall: 27 completed passesMiller: 26 completed passesBushiri: 27 completed passesFish: 21 completed passesObita: 19 completed passesMoriah-Welsh: 15 completed passesNewell: 29 completed passesBoyle: 6 completed passesMarcondes: 16 completed passesMaolida: 10 completed passesVente: 6 completed passes123352130111020179MarshallMillerBushiriFishObitaMoriah-WelshNewellBoyleMarcondesMaolidaVenteStarters until 69' · lines join pairs with 4+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Hearts

FromToPasses
KentKingsley16
KingsleyKent15
KentAtkinson11
CochraneForrest10
CochraneKingsley9

Hibernian

FromToPasses
MarshallFish18
FishMarshall10
NewellObita8
BushiriNewell8
FishMiller8

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Hearts

3−2.513+5.429+13.55−1.72−2.22−5.78+2.35+0.63−3.92−4.42−3.58+2.71−3.62−3.57+1.11−2.83−0.81−1.82−1.311+6.61−0.91−0.60−1.10−1.31−1.31+0.21+0.31+0.40−0.71+0.3FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 27 matches

Hibernian

0−5.414+6.518+1.113+6.03−1.44−3.54−2.512+6.812+4.51−5.370.02−2.43+0.34−1.44−1.51−4.94+0.81−0.94+1.12−0.71−0.93+1.90−1.04+2.53+1.11+0.30−0.31+0.60−0.40−0.8FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 26 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Hearts

0.010.020.030.040.030.010.010.020.040.020.040.010.040.030.010.090.05−0.010.06−0.010.090.010.200.210.19LessMore

Hibernian

0.010.030.030.060.010.020.050.010.010.030.020.050.040.040.070.190.090.020.070.070.03−0.010.140.34LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.29AttackHearts1.32 → 1.31Hibernian1.12 → 1.16Defence (lower is better)Hearts1.21 → 1.24Hibernian1.42 → 1.41

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Hibernian
Top six33%36%+3
11th1%1%0
Dundee FC
Top six41%40%−1
Aberdeen
Top six24%24%0
11th2%2%0

From the forecast before the match (28 February 2024): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

HeartsHibernian
Expected goals1.730.96
Win55%20%
Expected Points1.900.86
Clean sheet38%18%

Hearts 55%Draw 25%Hibernian 20%

Most likely score 1–1, 12%. Both sides score 51%.

Hibernian goalsHearts goals0123456+0123456+7%6%3%1%5%2%5%1%6%6%3%3%2%1%11%12%10%10%

From the forecast as it stood on 28 February 2024: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowHearts winDrawHibernian win
Hibernian
Top six33%24%36%57%
11th1%2%1%<1%
Dundee FC
Top six41%45%40%30%
Aberdeen
Top six24%27%24%17%
11th2%2%2%2%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Hearts

  1. L0–524 FebRangers (A)xG 0.60–1.47
  2. W2–017 FebMotherwell (H)xG 1.71–0.46
  3. W1–07 FebSt. Johnstone (A)xG 0.70–0.45
  4. W3–23 FebDundee FC (A)xG 1.76–1.69
  5. W2–027 JanAberdeen (H)xG 1.58–0.93
  6. W3–223 JanDundee FC (H)xG 2.21–0.69

Hibernian

  1. W2–124 FebDundee FC (H)xG 1.94–0.35
  2. D2–217 FebAberdeen (A)xG 1.46–2.93
  3. L1–27 FebCeltic (H)xG 1.00–2.07
  4. L0–33 FebSt. Mirren (H)xG 0.41–2.40
  5. D2–227 JanKilmarnock (A)xG 1.58–1.69
  6. L0–324 JanRangers (H)xG 0.93–2.09

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

HeartsHibernian
Position3rd7th
Played2726
Won, drawn, lost16–⁠3–⁠87–⁠9–⁠10
Points51 (1.89 per game)30 (1.15 per game)
Expected Points per game1.351.06
Goals35–⁠2733–⁠42
xG per game1.22–⁠1.361.12–⁠1.57
Home: points, xG per game1.85, 1.39–⁠1.201.14, 1.26–⁠1.46
Away: points, xG per game1.93, 1.06–⁠1.511.17, 0.95–⁠1.70
ManagerSteven Naismith (23)Nick Montgomery (22)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.29AttackHearts1.32, 3rdHibernian1.12, 7thDefence (lower is better)Hearts1.21, 3rdHibernian1.42, 8th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovDecJanFebHearts attack: 1.32Hibernian attack: 1.121.321.12HibernianHeartsDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovDecJanFebHearts defence: 1.21Hibernian defence: 1.421.421.21

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

HeartsHibernian
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−11%−1%−10%+12%
Counter-attacks−4%−34%−54%−25%
Set pieces−10%+10%−12%+19%
Penalties−4%+15%−40%+60%
Headers−32%average−21%−13%
Left side−9%−9%−11%−4%
Centre−22%−7%−23%+11%
Right side+10%+21%−2%+29%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Hearts attacking

Hearts createdHibernian concededLeft side−9%+29%Centre−22%+11%Right side+10%−4%Open play−11%+12%Counter-attacks−4%−25%Set pieces−10%+19%Headers−32%−13%

Hibernian attacking

Hibernian createdHearts concededLeft side−11%+21%Centre−23%−7%Right side−2%−9%Open play−10%−1%Counter-attacks−54%−34%Set pieces−12%+10%Headers−21%average

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

HeartsHibernian

1.22xG1.12
1.36xG against1.57
56%Possession52%
13.4Shots10.6
13.4Shots against14.4
4.5Shots on target3.8
1.3Big chances1.7
25.6Touches in the opposition box22.4
461Passes420
76%Pass accuracy77%
6.7Corners4.7
55%Field tilt46%
43.4Final-third entries36.2
13.2Box entries11.3
13.2Passes per defensive action15.1

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Hearts

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level441.271.10
Ahead260.911.59
Behind201.511.63

Hibernian

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level421.191.43
Ahead220.971.66
Behind271.121.72

xG by period

Hearts

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.130.173–3
16–300.170.255–4
31–450.100.191–4
46–600.240.277–5
61–750.300.1310–5
76–900.280.359–6

Hibernian

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.160.273–6
16–300.170.164–5
31–450.180.284–6
46–600.150.244–7
61–750.190.2711–8
76–900.270.367–10

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Hearts

GKCBCBCBRWBCMCMCMLWBSTSTClark 27Kingsley 14Atkinson 5Sibbick 5Kent 27Halkett 4Rowles 22Oda 7Atkinson 6Forrest 5Nieuwen… 19NieuwenhofDevlin 7Denholm 6Baningime 17Boyce 3Shankland 2Grant 9Lowry 7Haring 5Cochrane 15Forrest 4Vargas 3Shankland 25Vargas 6Kingsley 6Cochrane 53-5-2 in 14 of 27 starts

Formations: 3-5-2 (14), 4-2-3-1 (11), 3-4-2-1 (1), 4-3-3 (1)

Hibernian

GKRBCBCBLBRMCMCMLMSTSTMarshall 25Wollacott 1Miller 16Whittaker 5Megwa 2Fish 25Bushiri 13Hanlon 9Triantis 3Obita 17Stevenson 8Levitt 1Youan 9Boyle 8Campbell 5Levitt 15Jeggo 11Moriah-Welsh 3Newell 22Tavares 12Youan 8Boyle 3Boyle 8Doidge 6Maolida 2Vente 21Le Fondre 4Marcondes 34-4-2 in 15 of 26 starts

Formations: 4-4-2 (15), 4-2-3-1 (5), 4-1-4-1 (2), 4-3-3 (2), 4-4-1-1 (1), 3-5-2 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
27 December 2023Hibernian0–1HeartsxG 1.85–1.30
7 October 2023Hearts2–2HibernianxG 1.25–1.32
27 May 2023Hearts1–1HibernianxG 0.11–1.50
15 April 2023Hibernian1–0HeartsxG 0.99–0.89
2 January 2023Hearts3–0HibernianxG 1.76–1.19
7 August 2022Hibernian1–1HeartsxG 1.50–0.96

9 league meetings since 2020/21: Hearts won 3, Hibernian won 1, and 5 were drawn. Goals 11–6 and xG 1.09–1.22 per game.

Key players

Hearts

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Shankland272,4191810.450.13
Boyce7631130.360.20
Lowry10733010.110.23
Vargas121,232410.230.11

Hibernian

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Doidge6643320.490.05
Le Fondre4540310.380.05
Youan191,754430.190.14
Boyle191,699330.170.14

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.