Digressive Celts

Matches › 2025/26

Hearts 1–0 Livingston

Saturday 3 January 2026, 15:00 · Tynecastle Park · Round 21 · Half-time 1–0 · Referee Chris Graham · Attendance 18,504

Hearts Halkett 18'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

HeartsLivingston
Goals10
xG2.230.54
Expected Points2.530.31

Hearts 79%Draw 15%Livingston 5%

Most likely score 2–0, 18%. Final score 1–0, 13%.

Livingston goalsHearts goals0123456+0123456+4%2%13%8%2%11%3%8%2%6%4%2%1%18%13%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

01230153045607590HTSteinwender on for Altena and Kerjota on for Braga, 75'Kent on for Magnússon, 86'Lawal on for Montaño, 52'Danso on for Pittman and Zimmerman on for May, 73'Muirhead on for Sylla, 83'Halkett 18'Hearts 2.23Livingston 0.5401230153045607590HTSteinwender on for Altena and Kerjota on for Braga, 75'Kent on for Magnússon, 86'Lawal on for Montaño, 52'Danso on for Pittman and Zimmerman on for May, 73'Muirhead on for Sylla, 83'Halkett 18'2.230.54HeartsLivingston

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

HeartsLivingston

2.23 +0.55xG0.54 −0.48
0.49 −1.60xG on target0.47 −0.57
17 +2.4Shots10 +0.2
3 −2.3Shots on target2 −1.5
3 +0.6Big chances1 −0.3
31 +2Touches in the opposition box23 +4
63% +10Possession37% −9
512 +78Passes299 −74
81% +5Pass accuracy68% −6
72% +11Field tilt28% −14
61 +18Final-third entries28 −6
15 +1.5Box entries13 +4.7
9.6 −2Passes per defensive action9.8 −3
7 +1.1Corners3 −1.7
25 +7Tackles31 +13
10 +1.1Interceptions10 +1.8
44 +13Clearances44 +10
2 −0.3Saves4 +1.4
5 −7Fouls15 0
1 −0.3Offsides2 +0.6

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Hearts

Magnússon 10', 0.58 xGMagnússon 36', 0.40 xGBraga 11', 0.27 xGMilne 41', 0.19 xGShankland 13', 0.16 xGKyziridis 11', 0.15 xGBraga 38', 0.15 xGDevlin 56', 0.05 xGKyziridis 17', 0.04 xGBraga 23', 0.04 xGFindlay 28', 0.04 xGKyziridis 37', 0.04 xGKyziridis 47', 0.04 xGAltena 41', 0.03 xGKyziridis 16', 0.02 xGKyziridis 38', 0.02 xGHalkett 18', 0.01 xG, goal33%0.74 xGSix-yard box: 2 shots, 0.74 xG, 0 goals52%1.17 xGCentral box: 6 shots, 1.17 xG, 1 goal3%0.07 xGWide in the box: 2 shots, 0.07 xG, 0 goals9%0.20 xGEdge of the box: 5 shots, 0.20 xG, 0 goals3%0.06 xGFurther out: 2 shots, 0.06 xG, 0 goals

Livingston

Sylla 51', 0.13 xGYengi 90+5', 0.10 xGYengi 65', 0.09 xGYengi 26', 0.06 xGPittman 2', 0.05 xGSusoho 66', 0.04 xGYengi 66', 0.03 xGMcLennan 90+4', 0.02 xGMay 15', 0.01 xGSylla 46', 0.01 xG0%0.00 xGSix-yard box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals85%0.46 xGCentral box: 6 shots, 0.46 xG, 0 goals2%0.01 xGWide in the box: 1 shot, 0.01 xG, 0 goals11%0.06 xGEdge of the box: 2 shots, 0.06 xG, 0 goals2%0.01 xGFurther out: 1 shot, 0.01 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

HeartsLivingston

1.54 8 shots, 0 goalsOpen play0.27 5 shots, 0 goals
0.21 3 shots, 0 goalsCounter-attacks0.00 0 shots, 0 goals
0.48 6 shots, 1 goalSet pieces0.27 5 shots, 0 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
18 min (19%) · Hearts 1.22, Livingston 0.06 xG
Hearts ahead
77 min (81%) · Hearts 1.01, Livingston 0.48 xG

Line-ups

2523419186142210899SchwolowAltenaHalkettFindlayMilneBaningimeDevlinMagnússonBragaKyziridisShanklandGoal75'86'75'Hearts 4-2-3-1Derek McInnes2819523268247113917PriorFinlaysonMcGowanKabongoloMontañoPittmanSyllaSusohoMcLennanYengiMayYellow cardYellow card52'73'83'73'Livingston 4-3-3David Martindale

Hearts substitutes

  • 75' Steinwender for Altena
  • 75' Kerjota for Braga
  • 86' Kent for Magnússon

Livingston substitutes

  • 52' Lawal for Montaño · yellow card 53'
  • 73' Danso for Pittman
  • 73' Zimmerman for May
  • 83' Muirhead for Sylla

Players

Hearts

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
SchwolowGK900.000.0000.0120
AltenaRB7510.030.3630.2568
HalkettCB9010.010.0200.121017
FindlayCB900.040.0100.0768
MilneLB900.190.1910.11115
BaningimeDM900.000.020−0.0229
DevlinDM900.050.0300.01315
MagnússonRW860.980.010−0.0129
BragaAM750.460.0420.0885
KyziridisLW900.310.0800.20152
ShanklandST900.160.7650.4281
SteinwenderDF150.000.0100.0442
KerjotaFW150.000.0100.0122
KentDF40.000.0000.0110

Livingston

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
PriorGK900.000.0000.0552
FinlaysonRB900.000.1210.24710
McGowanCB900.000.0000.01217
KabongoloCB900.000.0210.05313
MontañoLB520.000.0000.0125
Pittman CM730.050.020−0.0225
SyllaCM830.150.0610.0433
Susoho CM900.040.0810.10510
McLennanRW900.020.0200.0025
YengiST900.280.0610.0635
MayLW730.010.0710.0834
Lawal DF380.000.0110.0459
DansoMF170.000.0000.0002
ZimmermanFW170.000.000−0.0102
MuirheadFW70.000.1310.0110

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Hearts

Altena and Shankland: 5 passesFindlay and Baningime: 5 passesHalkett and Baningime: 5 passesAltena and Braga: 6 passesAltena and Kyziridis: 6 passesMagnússon and Shankland: 6 passesAltena and Baningime: 8 passesAltena and Magnússon: 8 passesFindlay and Devlin: 8 passesHalkett and Devlin: 8 passesDevlin and Kyziridis: 8 passesMagnússon and Braga: 8 passesBraga and Kyziridis: 9 passesBraga and Shankland: 9 passesDevlin and Baningime: 10 passesKyziridis and Shankland: 10 passesMilne and Devlin: 11 passesSchwolow and Findlay: 13 passesMilne and Braga: 13 passesMilne and Shankland: 13 passesAltena and Halkett: 14 passesAltena and Devlin: 15 passesMilne and Kyziridis: 19 passesFindlay and Halkett: 22 passesFindlay and Milne: 25 passesSchwolow: 16 completed passesAltena: 38 completed passesFindlay: 43 completed passesHalkett: 32 completed passesMilne: 47 completed passesDevlin: 35 completed passesBaningime: 23 completed passesMagnússon: 14 completed passesBraga: 20 completed passesKyziridis: 24 completed passesShankland: 26 completed passes2523194181462210899SchwolowAltenaFindlayHalkettMilneDevlinBaningimeMagnússonBragaKyziridisShanklandStarters until 75' · lines join pairs with 5+ passes

Livingston

Finlayson and Susoho: 3 passesKabongolo and Sylla: 3 passesMontaño and Sylla: 3 passesMontaño and Susoho: 3 passesMontaño and Yengi: 3 passesSylla and McLennan: 3 passesPrior and Finlayson: 4 passesPrior and Kabongolo: 4 passesFinlayson and McLennan: 4 passesKabongolo and Susoho: 4 passesFinlayson and Kabongolo: 6 passesMontaño and Pittman: 6 passesMontaño and May: 7 passesPrior: 10 completed passesFinlayson: 12 completed passesMcGowan: 3 completed passesKabongolo: 14 completed passesMontaño: 15 completed passesSylla: 6 completed passesSusoho: 10 completed passesPittman: 7 completed passesMcLennan: 5 completed passesYengi: 5 completed passesMay: 7 completed passes2819523262478113917PriorFinlaysonMcGowanKabongoloMontañoSyllaSusohoPittmanMcLennanYengiMayStarters until 52' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Hearts

FromToPasses
MilneKyziridis19
FindlayMilne17
FindlayHalkett16
DevlinBaningime13
MilneFindlay12

Livingston

FromToPasses
SusohoFinlayson11
SusohoKabongolo6
PriorFinlayson6
McGowanKabongolo6
KabongoloLawal6

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Hearts

13+9.110+3.611+0.28+2.04+0.415+7.716+8.29+1.95−4.210+3.07+1.27+1.013+7.86−1.39+3.54−1.34−0.73+0.22−2.22−2.56+3.32−0.20−1.72+0.43−0.210.00−0.50−0.30−0.510.0FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 19 matches

Livingston

7+1.416+9.119+2.06−1.44−1.49+1.713+5.05−2.08−0.56−2.24−0.850.011+7.46+0.110+3.83−0.74−0.50−2.82−2.04−0.35+2.65+3.43+1.62+0.16+3.22+0.61+0.60−0.91+0.41−0.3FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 19 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Hearts

0.010.020.070.010.020.010.060.040.040.020.060.050.07−0.010.020.080.17−0.070.030.170.01−0.020.020.40LessMore

Livingston

0.020.020.020.020.030.010.020.010.040.010.020.030.020.030.040.060.12−0.03−0.02−0.100.020.080.18LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.32AttackHearts1.50 → 1.52Livingston0.96 → 0.93Defence (lower is better)Hearts1.09 → 1.06Livingston1.76 → 1.77

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Hearts
Title16%18%+2
Livingston
11th19%17%−2
Bottom73%75%+2
Kilmarnock
11th43%45%+2
Bottom19%18%−1
Celtic
Title75%73%−2

From the forecast before the match (3 January 2026): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

HeartsLivingston
Expected goals2.330.71
Win73%9%
Expected Points2.380.45
Clean sheet49%10%

Hearts 73%Draw 17%Livingston 9%

Most likely score 2–0, 13%. Both sides score 46%.

Livingston goalsHearts goals0123456+0123456+5%3%1%8%3%9%3%7%3%6%4%1%3%2%2%1%11%13%10%

From the forecast as it stood on 3 January 2026: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowHearts winDrawLivingston win
Hearts
Title16%18%10%8%
Livingston
11th19%17%20%25%
Bottom73%75%70%57%
Kilmarnock
11th43%45%41%39%
Bottom19%18%21%28%
Celtic
Title75%73%80%80%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Hearts

  1. L2–327 DecHibernian (A)xG 1.78–1.51
  2. W2–121 DecRangers (H)xG 1.70–2.33
  3. W2–013 DecFalkirk (A)xG 1.51–1.03
  4. W2–17 DecCeltic (A)xG 0.52–1.87
  5. D1–13 DecKilmarnock (H)xG 2.19–1.80
  6. D0–029 NovMotherwell (A)xG 0.41–0.58

Livingston

  1. L1–330 DecDundee United (H)xG 0.45–3.25
  2. L2–427 DecCeltic (H)xG 1.09–3.83
  3. L0–120 DecSt. Mirren (A)xG 0.24–2.23
  4. D2–213 DecDundee FC (H)xG 0.89–0.46
  5. L0–36 DecMotherwell (A)xG 0.67–2.41
  6. L0–130 NovAberdeen (H)xG 0.99–0.76

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

HeartsLivingston
Position1st12th
Played1919
Won, drawn, lost12–⁠5–⁠21–⁠6–⁠12
Points41 (2.16 per game)9 (0.47 per game)
Expected Points per game1.800.88
Goals38–⁠1720–⁠39
xG per game1.68–⁠0.991.02–⁠1.92
Home: points, xG per game2.33, 1.70–⁠1.050.56, 1.17–⁠1.76
Away: points, xG per game2.00, 1.66–⁠0.930.40, 0.88–⁠2.07
ManagerDerek McInnes (19)David Martindale (156)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.32AttackHearts1.50, 4thLivingston0.96, 12thDefence (lower is better)Hearts1.09, 3rdLivingston1.76, 12th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovDecHearts attack: 1.50Livingston attack: 0.961.500.96LivingstonHeartsDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovDecHearts defence: 1.09Livingston defence: 1.761.761.09

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

HeartsLivingston
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play+12%−15%−29%+26%
Counter-attacks+6%−45%−61%+14%
Set pieces+52%−28%−42%+39%
Penalties−3%−100%+62%+127%
Headers+43%−15%−43%+5%
Left side+7%−25%−40%+34%
Centre+43%−35%−39%+19%
Right side−8%+6%−28%+42%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Hearts attacking

Hearts createdLivingston concededLeft side+7%+42%Centre+43%+19%Right side−8%+34%Open play+12%+26%Counter-attacks+6%+14%Set pieces+52%+39%Headers+43%+5%

Livingston attacking

Livingston createdHearts concededLeft side−40%+6%Centre−39%−35%Right side−28%−25%Open play−29%−15%Counter-attacks−61%−45%Set pieces−42%−28%Headers−43%−15%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

HeartsLivingston

1.68xG1.02
0.99xG against1.92
53%Possession46%
14.6Shots9.8
9.3Shots against14.0
5.3Shots on target3.5
2.4Big chances1.3
28.8Touches in the opposition box19.5
434Passes373
76%Pass accuracy74%
5.9Corners4.7
60%Field tilt42%
43.0Final-third entries34.2
13.5Box entries8.3
11.7Passes per defensive action13.1

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Hearts

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level431.300.78
Ahead342.051.20
Behind141.981.07

Livingston

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level450.822.00
Ahead81.422.43
Behind371.181.72

xG by period

Hearts

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.160.143–2
16–300.210.105–4
31–450.250.207–4
46–600.340.128–3
61–750.200.157–1
76–900.510.288–3

Livingston

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.090.332–6
16–300.160.264–4
31–450.200.323–6
46–600.100.410–7
61–750.230.204–4
76–900.240.407–12

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Hearts

GKRBCBCBLBRMCMCMLMSTSTSchwolow 15Clark 4McEntee 10Steinwender 5Kent 3Halkett 15Steinwender 2Kent 2Findlay 18Shankland 1Kingsley 9Milne 7Devlin 2Milne 6Kyziridis 5Braga 4Baningime 7McEntee 6Magnússon 3Devlin 17Spittal 4Kyziridis 10Braga 4Milne 3Shankland 17Kaboré 4Findlay 1Braga 8Magnússon 4McEntee 14-4-2 in 10 of 19 starts

Formations: 4-4-2 (10), 4-2-3-1 (4), 3-5-2 (3), 5-4-1 (1), 4-3-3 (1)

Livingston

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTPrior 19Finlayson 10Brenet 5Lawal 3McGowan 8Finlayson 7Sylla 2Wilson 18Blaney 3Montano 8Montgomery 8May 1Tait 11Pittman 9Sylla 10Susoho 7Carey 1Smith 12Pittman 1May 1Pittman 8Tait 4Sylla 2May 7Yengi 4Winter 3Bokila 8Yengi 5Muirhead 44-2-3-1 in 10 of 19 starts

Formations: 4-2-3-1 (10), 4-3-3 (7), 3-5-2 (1), 5-4-1 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
30 August 2025Livingston1–2HeartsxG 0.50–1.42
13 April 2024Hearts4–2LivingstonxG 3.81–0.97
2 January 2024Livingston1–2HeartsxG 1.66–1.94
1 November 2023Hearts1–0LivingstonxG 1.91–0.21
29 January 2023Livingston0–0HeartsxG 0.34–1.63
12 November 2022Hearts1–1LivingstonxG 2.95–1.84

10 league meetings since 2020/21: Hearts won 7, Livingston won 1, and 2 were drawn. Goals 16–6 and xG 1.98–0.87 per game.

Key players

Hearts

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Braga161,398820.500.14
Kyziridis151,366360.140.39
Shankland181,6001010.410.09
Magnússon7663100.260.03

Livingston

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Muirhead6610110.450.18
Yengi9885200.320.08
Bokila9819500.330.02
May12985020.110.20

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.