Digressive Celts

Matches › 2025/26

Kilmarnock 0–1 Falkirk

Saturday 20 December 2025, 15:00 · The BBSP Stadium Rugby Park · Round 18 · Half-time 0–0 · Referee Ryan Lee · Attendance 5,708

Falkirk Graham 54'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

KilmarnockFalkirk
Goals01
xG1.191.46
Expected Points1.101.59

Kilmarnock 26%Draw 31%Falkirk 43%

Most likely score 1–1, 19%. Final score 0–1, 12%.

Falkirk goalsKilmarnock goals0123456+0123456+3%12%9%3%4%12%4%3%10%8%2%4%3%19%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

00.511.520153045607590HTTiffoney on for Polworth, 64'Dackers on for Anderson and Brannan on for Kiltie, 77'Lowery on for John-Jules, 89'Yeats on for Cartwright, 46'Williams on for Tait and Agyeman on for Wilson, 68'Hart on for McCann, 81'Edwards on for Miller, 90+2'Graham 54'Falkirk 1.46Kilmarnock 1.1900.511.520153045607590HTTiffoney on for Polworth, 64'Dackers on for Anderson and Brannan on for Kiltie, 77'Lowery on for John-Jules, 89'Yeats on for Cartwright, 46'Williams on for Tait and Agyeman on for Wilson, 68'Hart on for McCann, 81'Edwards on for Miller, 90+2'Graham 54'1.461.19KilmarnockFalkirk

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

KilmarnockFalkirk

1.19 −0.01xG1.46 +0.35
0.34 −0.79xG on target1.61 +0.48
15 +4Shots9 −2
2 −1.9Shots on target4 +0.1
1 −0.9Big chances3 +1.1
28 +9Touches in the opposition box13 −6
55% +17Possession45% −5
445 +140Passes359 −31
71% +2Pass accuracy72% −3
64% +28Field tilt36% −10
49 +21Final-third entries40 +8
12 +2.9Box entries6 −4.1
16.6 +1Passes per defensive action14.3 +1
2 −2.5Corners2 −2.5
11 −5Tackles14 −4
5 −4.2Interceptions17 +8.5
29 −5Clearances45 +14
3 0.0Saves2 −1.7
12 −1Fouls12 −1
2 +0.2Offsides2 −0.1

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Kilmarnock

Brown 30', 0.28 xGJohn-Jules 30', 0.16 xGDackers 79', 0.16 xGWatson 41', 0.12 xGDackers 90+2', 0.12 xGKiltie 43', 0.10 xGAnderson 44', 0.04 xGJohn-Jules 88', 0.04 xGJohn-Jules 40', 0.03 xGJohn-Jules 70', 0.03 xGAnderson 73', 0.03 xGLowery 90+1', 0.03 xGLyons 32', 0.02 xGLyons 16', 0.01 xGKiltie 43', 0.01 xG0%0.00 xGSix-yard box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals85%1.01 xGCentral box: 8 shots, 1.01 xG, 0 goals4%0.05 xGWide in the box: 2 shots, 0.05 xG, 0 goals8%0.09 xGEdge of the box: 3 shots, 0.09 xG, 0 goals3%0.04 xGFurther out: 2 shots, 0.04 xG, 0 goals

Falkirk

Miller 58', 0.24 xGAgyeman 85', 0.19 xGWilson 59', 0.09 xGTait 24', 0.06 xGGraham 9', 0.04 xGWilson 62', 0.04 xGMiller 83', 0.03 xGYeats 89', 0.01 xGGraham 54', 0.75 xG, goal68%0.99 xGSix-yard box: 2 shots, 0.99 xG, 1 goal4%0.06 xGCentral box: 1 shot, 0.06 xG, 0 goals15%0.22 xGWide in the box: 2 shots, 0.22 xG, 0 goals12%0.18 xGEdge of the box: 3 shots, 0.18 xG, 0 goals1%0.01 xGFurther out: 1 shot, 0.01 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

KilmarnockFalkirk

1.07 11 shots, 0 goalsOpen play1.35 7 shots, 1 goal
0.02 1 shot, 0 goalsCounter-attacks0.04 1 shot, 0 goals
0.10 3 shots, 0 goalsSet pieces0.06 1 shot, 0 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
54 min (56%) · Kilmarnock 0.79, Falkirk 0.85 xG
Falkirk ahead
43 min (44%) · Kilmarnock 0.41, Falkirk 0.60 xG

Line-ups

201556383112112419OluwayemiBrownMayoDeasThompsonLyonsPolworthWatsonKiltieJohn-JulesAndersonYellow cardYellow card64'77'89'77'Kilmarnock 4-4-2Kris Doolan192820538172229217BainLissahAllanHendersonMcCannSpencerCartwrightWilsonMillerTaitGrahamYellow cardGoal81'46'68'90+2'68'Falkirk 4-2-3-1John McGlynn

Kilmarnock substitutes

  • 64' Tiffoney for Polworth
  • 77' Brannan for Kiltie
  • 77' Dackers for Anderson
  • 89' Lowery for John-Jules

Falkirk substitutes

  • 46' Yeats for Cartwright
  • 68' Agyeman for Wilson
  • 68' Williams for Tait
  • 81' Hart for McCann
  • 90+2' Edwards for Miller

Players

Kilmarnock

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
OluwayemiGK900.000.0000.0662
BrownRB900.280.0300.0574
Mayo CB900.000.0300.151011
DeasCB900.000.1010.1289
ThompsonLB900.000.0300.0674
LyonsRM900.040.030−0.1287
Polworth CM640.000.011−0.0111
WatsonCM900.120.1140.1462
KiltieLM770.110.1620.1740
John-JulesST890.260.0100.0454
AndersonST770.070.0100.0420
TiffoneyFW260.000.0000.0200
BrannanDF130.000.1220.2631
DackersFW130.280.0000.0100
LoweryMF10.030.0300.0100

Falkirk

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
BainGK900.000.0000.0340
LissahRB900.000.0000.04812
AllanCB900.000.0000.03318
HendersonCB900.000.0000.0459
McCannLB810.000.0200.06613
SpencerDM900.000.0100.07510
Cartwright DM460.000.0000.0122
WilsonRW6810.140.6410.1200
MillerAM900.270.6110.2470
TaitLW680.060.0220.0472
GrahamST9010.790.2920.1742
YeatsMF440.010.1100.0931
AgyemanFW220.190.0010.0101
WilliamsFW220.000.0110.0113
HartDF90.000.0000.0005
EdwardsDF00.000.0000.0002

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Kilmarnock

Oluwayemi and Brown: 4 passesOluwayemi and Lyons: 4 passesOluwayemi and Anderson: 4 passesThompson and Anderson: 4 passesJohn-Jules and Lyons: 4 passesKiltie and Watson: 4 passesBrown and John-Jules: 5 passesDeas and Watson: 5 passesPolworth and Lyons: 5 passesOluwayemi and Mayo: 6 passesOluwayemi and John-Jules: 6 passesMayo and Deas: 7 passesDeas and Thompson: 7 passesJohn-Jules and Watson: 7 passesLyons and Kiltie: 7 passesJohn-Jules and Polworth: 8 passesOluwayemi and Deas: 9 passesBrown and Mayo: 9 passesMayo and Lyons: 9 passesDeas and Polworth: 10 passesDeas and Lyons: 10 passesThompson and John-Jules: 11 passesThompson and Polworth: 12 passesBrown and Lyons: 23 passesOluwayemi: 22 completed passesBrown: 29 completed passesMayo: 20 completed passesDeas: 31 completed passesThompson: 23 completed passesJohn-Jules: 17 completed passesPolworth: 26 completed passesLyons: 34 completed passesKiltie: 8 completed passesWatson: 13 completed passesAnderson: 7 completed passes201556324318111219OluwayemiBrownMayoDeasThompsonJohn-JulesPolworthLyonsKiltieWatsonAndersonStarters until 64' · lines join pairs with 4+ passes

Falkirk

Lissah and Graham: 3 passesAllan and Wilson: 3 passesSpencer and Tait: 3 passesTait and Graham: 3 passesBain and Lissah: 4 passesMcCann and Cartwright: 4 passesCartwright and Miller: 4 passesTait and Miller: 4 passesMcCann and Tait: 5 passesSpencer and Miller: 5 passesLissah and Spencer: 6 passesLissah and Wilson: 6 passesAllan and Spencer: 6 passesAllan and Tait: 6 passesBain and Allan: 7 passesMcCann and Spencer: 7 passesHenderson and Spencer: 8 passesWilson and Tait: 8 passesBain and Henderson: 10 passesLissah and Allan: 10 passesAllan and Henderson: 10 passesLissah and Tait: 12 passesHenderson and McCann: 15 passesBain: 19 completed passesLissah: 25 completed passesAllan: 23 completed passesHenderson: 24 completed passesMcCann: 16 completed passesSpencer: 22 completed passesCartwright: 9 completed passesWilson: 8 completed passesTait: 22 completed passesMiller: 6 completed passesGraham: 6 completed passes192820538172221297BainLissahAllanHendersonMcCannSpencerCartwrightWilsonTaitMillerGrahamStarters until 46' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Kilmarnock

FromToPasses
BrownLyons17
LyonsMayo11
BrownMayo11
MayoBrown11
LyonsBrown10

Falkirk

FromToPasses
BainHenderson15
HendersonMcCann10
McCannHenderson10
HendersonSpencer10
LissahAllan8

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Kilmarnock

2−4.26−2.913−3.61−3.36−1.39+2.37−0.110+2.14−1.54−1.74−1.46+2.77+2.22−3.23−1.32−2.33+0.41−1.91−2.84+1.31−1.10−1.81−0.92+0.42+1.10−0.72+1.11+0.70−0.71−5.6FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 17 matches

Falkirk

5−2.96−0.918+3.712+4.89+3.811+1.37+0.29+2.111+2.76−1.27+2.030.03−1.25−1.81−3.33−0.95+3.12−0.95+0.71−3.23+1.32+0.83+1.01−1.60−1.10−0.30−0.50−0.30−0.92−4.8FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 17 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Kilmarnock

0.010.020.010.040.010.040.020.030.010.080.040.030.020.010.050.010.030.030.060.060.060.07−0.160.050.020.36LessMore

Falkirk

0.010.010.010.020.030.010.020.040.030.040.010.050.030.020.030.070.01−0.020.020.010.160.100.020.23LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.33AttackKilmarnock1.13 → 1.11Falkirk1.06 → 1.08Defence (lower is better)Kilmarnock1.55 → 1.56Falkirk1.49 → 1.45

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Kilmarnock
Top six2%<1%−2
11th22%28%+6
Bottom16%22%+6
Falkirk
Top six20%30%+10
11th6%3%−3
Bottom2%1%−1
Aberdeen
Top six67%62%−5
Dundee FC
11th32%30%−2
Bottom36%33%−3

From the forecast before the match (20 December 2025): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

KilmarnockFalkirk
Expected goals1.481.11
Win45%28%
Expected Points1.621.11
Clean sheet33%23%

Kilmarnock 45%Draw 27%Falkirk 28%

Most likely score 1–1, 13%. Both sides score 52%.

Falkirk goalsKilmarnock goals0123456+0123456+8%8%5%2%7%3%8%9%5%2%4%4%2%1%2%10%13%

From the forecast as it stood on 20 December 2025: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowKilmarnock winDrawFalkirk win
Kilmarnock
Top six2%3%1%<1%
11th22%19%23%28%
Bottom16%10%18%22%
Falkirk
Top six20%14%19%30%
11th6%8%6%3%
Bottom2%3%2%1%
Aberdeen
Top six67%67%69%62%
Dundee FC
11th32%33%31%30%
Bottom36%38%34%33%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Kilmarnock

  1. L1–214 DecAberdeen (A)xG 1.02–3.76
  2. L0–36 DecRangers (H)xG 0.66–0.75
  3. D1–13 DecHearts (A)xG 1.80–2.19
  4. D1–129 NovDundee United (H)xG 2.11–1.86
  5. L1–322 NovMotherwell (H)xG 1.73–2.24
  6. L0–49 NovCeltic (A)xG 0.38–2.85

Falkirk

  1. L0–213 DecHearts (H)xG 1.03–1.51
  2. L0–36 DecHibernian (A)xG 0.49–2.02
  3. D0–03 DecMotherwell (H)xG 0.57–0.47
  4. D0–030 NovRangers (A)xG 0.12–2.24
  5. W3–022 NovDundee United (A)xG 1.78–0.74
  6. D1–18 NovLivingston (H)xG 1.82–0.62

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

KilmarnockFalkirk
Position11th7th
Played1717
Won, drawn, lost2–⁠6–⁠95–⁠6–⁠6
Points12 (0.71 per game)21 (1.24 per game)
Expected Points per game1.011.19
Goals17–⁠3219–⁠26
xG per game1.20–⁠1.861.11–⁠1.49
Home: points, xG per game0.67, 1.35–⁠1.511.22, 1.32–⁠1.17
Away: points, xG per game0.75, 1.04–⁠2.251.25, 0.87–⁠1.85
ManagerKris Doolan (0)John McGlynn (17)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.33AttackKilmarnock1.13, 9thFalkirk1.06, 10thDefence (lower is better)Kilmarnock1.55, 10thFalkirk1.49, 8th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovDecKilmarnock attack: 1.13Falkirk attack: 1.061.131.06FalkirkKilmarnockDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovDecKilmarnock defence: 1.55Falkirk defence: 1.491.551.49

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

KilmarnockFalkirk
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−32%+19%−12%+14%
Counter-attacks+46%+27%−5%+47%
Set pieces+26%+36%−20%−15%
Penalties−67%+133%−67%average
Headers−2%+18%−35%+24%
Left side−51%+29%−54%−14%
Centre+21%+35%−24%+14%
Right side−16%+2%+51%+26%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Kilmarnock attacking

Kilmarnock createdFalkirk concededLeft side−51%+26%Centre+21%+14%Right side−16%−14%Open play−32%+14%Counter-attacks+46%+47%Set pieces+26%−15%Headers−2%+24%

Falkirk attacking

Falkirk createdKilmarnock concededLeft side−54%+2%Centre−24%+35%Right side+51%+29%Open play−12%+19%Counter-attacks−5%+27%Set pieces−20%+36%Headers−35%+18%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

KilmarnockFalkirk

1.20xG1.11
1.86xG against1.49
38%Possession50%
10.5Shots11.0
14.1Shots against13.1
3.9Shots on target3.9
1.9Big chances1.9
19.4Touches in the opposition box19.0
305Passes390
70%Pass accuracy75%
4.5Corners4.5
37%Field tilt46%
28.2Final-third entries32.3
9.1Box entries10.1
15.9Passes per defensive action12.9

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Kilmarnock

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level361.271.62
Ahead171.082.69
Behind361.191.71

Falkirk

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level441.121.70
Ahead161.070.67
Behind301.121.61

xG by period

Kilmarnock

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.050.260–3
16–300.180.274–7
31–450.350.276–3
46–600.170.273–6
61–750.140.351–6
76–900.320.443–7

Falkirk

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.200.182–1
16–300.220.303–6
31–450.210.362–8
46–600.160.213–2
61–750.190.246–4
76–900.120.203–5

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Kilmarnock

GKRWBCBCBCBLWBCMCMCMSTSTOluwayemi 7Stryjek 7Beach 3Brown 10Brandon 4Brannan 3Stanger 11Schilte-B… 4Schilte-BrownLyons 1Mayo 14Polworth 1Tiffoney 1Deas 16Williams 3Thompson 14Brannan 3Watson 15McKenzie 3Anderson 2Polworth 10Thomson 1Lyons 9Lowery 5Kiltie 5Dackers 10Tiffoney 4Daniels 4Anderson 9Kiltie 45-3-2 in 4 of 17 starts

Formations: 5-3-2 (4), 3-5-2 (4), 3-4-3 (3), 3-1-4-2 (2), 4-1-4-1 (1), 4-3-1-2 (1), 5-4-1 (1), 3-4-1-2 (1)

Falkirk

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTBain 17Adams 14Allan 1Lissah 1Allan 8Neilson 6Lissah 2Henderson 17McCann 8Lissah 6Hart 2Spencer 17Cartwright 6Tait 11Wilson 8Miller 4Williams 2Miller 6Tait 4Williams 3Miller 6Williams 5Ross 4MacIver 9Graham 5Samuel-Ogunsuyi 24-2-3-1 in every start

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
1 November 2025Falkirk3–1KilmarnockxG 2.08–0.43

1 league meeting since 2020/21: Kilmarnock won 0, Falkirk won 1, and 0 were drawn. Goals 1–3 and xG 0.43–2.08 per game.

Key players

Kilmarnock

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Anderson11959310.400.05
Dackers111,009100.280.11
Tiffoney5475110.220.10
Watson151,333310.210.06

Falkirk

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
MacIver9661310.410.12
Graham5532300.440.04
Miller161,248330.230.18
Wilson8656100.280.09

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.