Digressive Celts

Matches › 2023/24

Kilmarnock 2–0 Aberdeen

Saturday 24 February 2024, 15:00 · The BBSP Stadium Rugby Park · Round 27 · Half-time 1–0 · Referee Graham Grainger · Attendance 6,230

Kilmarnock Ndaba 45+5', Kennedy 58'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

KilmarnockAberdeen
Goals20
xG1.940.48
Expected Points2.400.40

Kilmarnock 74%Draw 20%Aberdeen 7%

Most likely score 2–0, 18%. Final score 2–0, 18%.

Aberdeen goalsKilmarnock goals0123456+0123456+8%4%9%2%9%2%11%6%1%5%2%1%17%18%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

01230153045607590HTWatson on for Vassell, 72'van Veen on for Watkins and Stewart on for Armstrong, 86'Balagizi on for Polworth, 87'Murray on for Kennedy, 90'Sokler on for Duk and Hoilett on for Polvara, 59'Ndaba 45+5'Kennedy 58'Kilmarnock 1.94Aberdeen 0.4801230153045607590HTWatson on for Vassell, 72'van Veen on for Watkins and Stewart on for Armstrong, 86'Balagizi on for Polworth, 87'Murray on for Kennedy, 90'Sokler on for Duk and Hoilett on for Polvara, 59'Ndaba 45+5'Kennedy 58'1.940.48KilmarnockAberdeen

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

KilmarnockAberdeen

1.94 +0.76xG0.48 −0.89
3.41 +2.23xG on target0.03 −1.30
20 +7Shots10 −2
9 +5.3Shots on target1 −3.2
5 +3.3Big chances0 −1.7
34 +12Touches in the opposition box15 −8
52% +6Possession48% +1
299 −36Passes281 −86
57% −7Pass accuracy50% −18
65% +15Field tilt35% −9
31 −2Final-third entries17 −14
18 +6Box entries6 −4
11.5 −3Passes per defensive action10.8 −4
5 −1.4Corners3 −1.4
8 −6Tackles12 −6
8 +1.0Interceptions4 −4.0
28 +7Clearances29 +4
1 −2.0Saves6 +2.8
17 +5Fouls15 +4
1 −0.2Offsides1 −0.2

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Kilmarnock

Watson 75', 0.36 xGWatson 90+2', 0.13 xGVassell 54', 0.11 xGWright 6', 0.10 xGPolworth 54', 0.10 xGVassell 3', 0.09 xGWatson 87', 0.09 xGArmstrong 13', 0.07 xGDonnelly 2', 0.05 xGArmstrong 3', 0.05 xGDonnelly 15', 0.05 xGFindlay 25', 0.05 xGArmstrong 43', 0.05 xGFindlay 56', 0.05 xGKennedy 25', 0.04 xGWatkins 31', 0.04 xGKennedy 48', 0.04 xGKennedy 68', 0.02 xGNdaba 45+5', 0.29 xG, goalKennedy 58', 0.17 xG, goal22%0.42 xGSix-yard box: 2 shots, 0.42 xG, 1 goal65%1.27 xGCentral box: 13 shots, 1.27 xG, 1 goal6%0.11 xGWide in the box: 1 shot, 0.11 xG, 0 goals7%0.14 xGEdge of the box: 4 shots, 0.14 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Aberdeen

Miovski 44', 0.10 xGMcGrath 45+1', 0.08 xGPolvara 13', 0.06 xGSokler 78', 0.06 xGDevlin 45+1', 0.05 xGPolvara 36', 0.04 xGGartenmann 90+3', 0.04 xGMcGrath 90+3', 0.03 xGPolvara 4', 0.02 xGMcGrath 29', 0.01 xG0%0.00 xGSix-yard box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals71%0.34 xGCentral box: 6 shots, 0.34 xG, 0 goals10%0.05 xGWide in the box: 1 shot, 0.05 xG, 0 goals19%0.09 xGEdge of the box: 3 shots, 0.09 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

KilmarnockAberdeen

1.17 12 shots, 1 goalOpen play0.38 7 shots, 0 goals
0.21 2 shots, 0 goalsCounter-attacks0.00 0 shots, 0 goals
0.56 6 shots, 1 goalSet pieces0.10 3 shots, 0 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
50 min (51%) · Kilmarnock 0.87, Aberdeen 0.35 xG
Kilmarnock ahead
48 min (49%) · Kilmarnock 1.07, Aberdeen 0.13 xG

Line-ups

14517311312210239DennisWrightMayoFindlayNdabaArmstrongPolworthDonnellyKennedyWatkinsVassellGoalYellow cardGoal86'87'90'86'72'Kilmarnock 4-4-2Derek McInnes24265384217119RoosDevlinGartenmannJensenMacKenzieBarronShinniePolvaraMcGrathDukMiovski59'59'Aberdeen 4-2-3-1Neil Warnock

Kilmarnock substitutes

  • 72' Watson for Vassell
  • 86' Stewart for Armstrong
  • 86' van Veen for Watkins
  • 87' Balagizi for Polworth
  • 90' Murray for Kennedy

Aberdeen substitutes

  • 59' Hoilett for Polvara
  • 59' Sokler for Duk

Players

Kilmarnock

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
DennisGK900.000.0000.0322
WrightRB900.100.0610.1345
MayoCB900.000.0000.04214
FindlayCB900.100.0100.06410
NdabaLB9010.290.0810.1039
Armstrong RM8610.170.4820.5181
PolworthCM870.100.1830.2370
DonnellyCM900.100.0800.1714
KennedyLM9010.270.2730.3792
WatkinsST860.040.0510.0432
VassellST7210.200.2110.0121
WatsonMF180.580.0000.0001
StewartMF40.000.0100.0000
van VeenFW40.000.0100.0000
BalagiziMF30.000.0100.0000
MurrayMF00.000.2510.1710

Aberdeen

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
RoosGK900.000.0000.0121
DevlinRB900.050.0100.0436
GartenmannCB900.040.0000.02213
JensenCB900.000.1920.1959
MacKenzieLB900.000.0100.0232
BarronDM900.000.0610.0034
ShinnieDM900.000.0400.0003
PolvaraRW590.120.011−0.0201
McGrathAM900.120.0520.0848
DukLW590.000.0610.0510
MiovskiST900.100.000−0.0100
HoilettMF310.000.0000.0102
SoklerFW310.060.0000.0000

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Kilmarnock

Wright and Polworth: 4 passesWright and Vassell: 4 passesMayo and Findlay: 4 passesNdaba and Kennedy: 4 passesArmstrong and Vassell: 4 passesWatkins and Vassell: 4 passesWright and Donnelly: 5 passesFindlay and Donnelly: 5 passesNdaba and Vassell: 5 passesArmstrong and Donnelly: 5 passesKennedy and Vassell: 5 passesArmstrong and Kennedy: 6 passesDennis and Wright: 7 passesArmstrong and Polworth: 7 passesPolworth and Donnelly: 7 passesFindlay and Polworth: 9 passesKennedy and Watkins: 9 passesNdaba and Polworth: 10 passesPolworth and Kennedy: 13 passesDennis: 11 completed passesWright: 20 completed passesMayo: 13 completed passesFindlay: 18 completed passesNdaba: 15 completed passesArmstrong: 17 completed passesPolworth: 31 completed passesDonnelly: 14 completed passesKennedy: 22 completed passesWatkins: 8 completed passesVassell: 7 completed passes14517311312210239DennisWrightMayoFindlayNdabaArmstrongPolworthDonnellyKennedyWatkinsVassellStarters until 72' · lines join pairs with 4+ passes

Aberdeen

Devlin and Polvara: 3 passesGartenmann and Barron: 3 passesMacKenzie and Duk: 3 passesShinnie and Polvara: 3 passesMacKenzie and Polvara: 4 passesBarron and Polvara: 4 passesDevlin and Barron: 5 passesDevlin and McGrath: 6 passesPolvara and McGrath: 6 passesRoos: 3 completed passesDevlin: 12 completed passesGartenmann: 3 completed passesJensen: 4 completed passesMacKenzie: 8 completed passesShinnie: 4 completed passesBarron: 13 completed passesPolvara: 10 completed passesMcGrath: 9 completed passesDuk: 3 completed passesMiovski: 3 completed passes24265348217119RoosDevlinGartenmannJensenMacKenzieShinnieBarronPolvaraMcGrathDukMiovskiStarters until 59' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Kilmarnock

FromToPasses
PolworthKennedy7
DennisWright7
PolworthDonnelly6
NdabaPolworth6
PolworthFindlay6

Aberdeen

FromToPasses
McGrathDevlin6
BarronGartenmann6
DevlinMcGrath6
JensenGartenmann6
BarronDevlin5

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Kilmarnock

7−0.315+2.711+3.25+0.69+1.96−1.47+1.46−0.47+1.35+0.35+1.48+3.94−1.67+1.82−1.61−1.72−1.33−1.44+1.01−0.90−0.81−0.74+1.52+1.10−0.30−0.80−0.20−0.41−3.52−4.3FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 26 matches

Aberdeen

4−1.17−1.319+3.47−0.83−1.38+0.24−2.77+0.79+0.360.03−3.02−1.94−1.29+2.94−0.34+1.01−1.05+1.25−0.11−1.61−1.12+1.32+0.53+0.42+1.01+0.50−0.30−0.30−0.44−5.1FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 25 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Kilmarnock

0.030.010.010.010.010.060.030.010.030.050.020.080.060.280.040.050.05−0.010.270.070.71LessMore

Aberdeen

0.010.010.010.010.010.03−0.010.030.01−0.010.020.010.020.01−0.050.060.100.070.07LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.28AttackKilmarnock1.13 → 1.17Aberdeen1.21 → 1.18Defence (lower is better)Kilmarnock1.25 → 1.22Aberdeen1.36 → 1.40

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Kilmarnock
Top six97%>99%+3
Aberdeen
Top six35%26%−9
11th1%2%+1
Dundee FC
Top six54%57%+3
St. Mirren
Top six89%91%+2

From the forecast before the match (24 February 2024): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

KilmarnockAberdeen
Expected goals1.421.07
Win44%28%
Expected Points1.611.11
Clean sheet34%24%

Kilmarnock 44%Draw 28%Aberdeen 28%

Most likely score 1–1, 13%. Both sides score 51%.

Aberdeen goalsKilmarnock goals0123456+0123456+9%8%5%2%7%2%8%9%5%2%4%4%2%1%2%11%13%

From the forecast as it stood on 24 February 2024: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowKilmarnock winDrawAberdeen win
Kilmarnock
Top six97%>99%97%93%
Aberdeen
Top six35%26%34%52%
11th1%2%1%<1%
Dundee FC
Top six54%57%56%49%
St. Mirren
Top six89%91%88%86%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Kilmarnock

  1. D1–117 FebCeltic (A)xG 0.95–1.49
  2. W1–07 FebLivingston (H)xG 0.75–0.72
  3. D1–13 FebMotherwell (A)xG 0.24–1.14
  4. D2–227 JanHibernian (H)xG 1.69–1.58
  5. L1–32 JanRangers (A)xG 1.55–2.27
  6. D2–230 DecDundee FC (H)xG 0.69–0.53

Aberdeen

  1. D2–217 FebHibernian (H)xG 2.93–1.46
  2. D3–314 FebMotherwell (H)xG 1.44–2.56
  3. L1–26 FebRangers (A)xG 0.53–2.12
  4. D1–13 FebCeltic (H)xG 1.22–2.04
  5. D1–130 JanDundee FC (H)xG 1.46–0.59
  6. L0–227 JanHearts (A)xG 0.93–1.58

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

KilmarnockAberdeen
Position4th7th
Played2625
Won, drawn, lost9–⁠10–⁠76–⁠9–⁠10
Points37 (1.42 per game)27 (1.08 per game)
Expected Points per game1.341.26
Goals29–⁠2731–⁠41
xG per game1.18–⁠1.151.37–⁠1.63
Home: points, xG per game1.92, 1.25–⁠0.961.15, 1.51–⁠1.53
Away: points, xG per game0.92, 1.10–⁠1.341.00, 1.22–⁠1.75
ManagerDerek McInnes (64)Neil Warnock (3)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.28AttackKilmarnock1.13, 6thAberdeen1.21, 4thDefence (lower is better)Kilmarnock1.25, 4thAberdeen1.36, 7th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovDecJanFebKilmarnock attack: 1.13Aberdeen attack: 1.211.211.13AberdeenKilmarnockDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovDecJanFebKilmarnock defence: 1.25Aberdeen defence: 1.361.361.25

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

KilmarnockAberdeen
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−19%−18%−13%+23%
Counter-attacks−21%+30%+86%−17%
Set pieces+18%−7%+22%+15%
Penalties−42%−42%−19%+41%
Headers+28%−15%−7%+31%
Left side−5%−30%−1%+20%
Centre−16%−10%+18%+22%
Right side−1%+4%−17%+7%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Kilmarnock attacking

Kilmarnock createdAberdeen concededLeft side−5%+7%Centre−16%+22%Right side−1%+20%Open play−19%+23%Counter-attacks−21%−17%Set pieces+18%+15%Headers+28%+31%

Aberdeen attacking

Aberdeen createdKilmarnock concededLeft side−1%+4%Centre+18%−10%Right side−17%−30%Open play−13%−18%Counter-attacks+86%+30%Set pieces+22%−7%Headers−7%−15%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

KilmarnockAberdeen

1.18xG1.37
1.15xG against1.63
46%Possession47%
12.9Shots12.0
12.2Shots against13.2
3.7Shots on target4.2
1.7Big chances1.7
21.8Touches in the opposition box23.5
335Passes367
64%Pass accuracy68%
6.4Corners4.4
50%Field tilt45%
33.3Final-third entries31.0
11.7Box entries10.5
14.4Passes per defensive action14.8

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Kilmarnock

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level481.001.01
Ahead181.221.37
Behind231.511.26

Aberdeen

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level471.091.35
Ahead181.771.70
Behind261.622.11

xG by period

Kilmarnock

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.090.133–3
16–300.230.146–3
31–450.180.252–10
46–600.220.085–3
61–750.160.225–3
76–900.300.338–5

Aberdeen

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.130.262–7
16–300.180.355–7
31–450.320.179–1
46–600.200.226–3
61–750.240.235–8
76–900.300.414–15

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Kilmarnock

GKCBCBCBRWBCMCMCMLWBSTSTDennis 25O'Hara 1Mayo 25Wright 16Deas 12Findlay 25Armstro… 25ArmstrongMayo 1Watson 20Davies 2Watkins 1Polworth 9Donnelly 7Ndaba 3Lyons 20Magennis 7McKenzie 3Kennedy 14Ndaba 9Donnelly 1Watkins 21Kennedy 4Vassell 21Ndaba 2Findlay 13-5-2 in 12 of 26 starts

Formations: 3-5-2 (12), 4-4-2 (6), 4-1-4-1 (2), 3-4-1-2 (1), 4-5-1 (1), 4-2-3-1 (1), 3-4-3 (1), 3-1-4-2 (1), 5-3-2 (1)

Aberdeen

GKCBCBCBRWBCMCMLWBAMSTSTRoos 25Gartenmann 20Devlin 5Polvara 4Rubezic 16MacDonald 5Jensen 19MacKenzie 4Devlin 20Morris 3Milne 2Clarkson 12Barron 10McGrath 3Shinnie 24MacKenzie 11McGarry 6Hayes 5Clarkson 8McGrath 8Polvara 6Miovski 24Sokler 4Duk 12McGrath 7Hayes 23-4-1-2 in 10 of 25 starts

Formations: 3-4-1-2 (10), 4-2-3-1 (4), 3-5-2 (3), 5-4-1 (3), 5-3-2 (2), 4-3-3 (1), 3-4-2-1 (1), 4-4-1-1 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
6 December 2023Aberdeen0–1KilmarnockxG 1.14–0.64
29 October 2023Kilmarnock2–0AberdeenxG 1.85–0.29
8 April 2023Aberdeen2–0KilmarnockxG 2.20–1.09
28 December 2022Kilmarnock2–1AberdeenxG 1.91–0.42
1 October 2022Aberdeen4–1KilmarnockxG 2.33–0.47
20 February 2021Aberdeen1–0KilmarnockxG 1.14–0.88

8 league meetings since 2020/21: Kilmarnock won 3, Aberdeen won 5, and 0 were drawn. Goals 6–11 and xG 0.96–1.29 per game.

Key players

Kilmarnock

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Armstrong262,189480.250.29
Kennedy191,791230.170.18
Vassell211,778500.270.06
Watson201,843420.120.10

Aberdeen

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Miovski252,1561320.470.11
Sokler4496010.410.06
Duk121,173440.280.16
McGrath201,678710.280.11

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.