Digressive Celts

Matches › 2025/26

Falkirk 1–0 Aberdeen

Saturday 3 January 2026, 15:00 · Falkirk Stadium · Round 21 · Half-time 0–0 · Referee John Beaton · Attendance 7,710

Falkirk Lissah 58'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

FalkirkAberdeen
Goals10
xG1.530.57
Expected Points2.080.65

Falkirk 60%Draw 27%Aberdeen 12%

Most likely score 1–0, 18%. Final score 1–0, 18%.

Aberdeen goalsFalkirk goals0123456+0123456+11%7%2%3%10%3%7%5%1%2%2%18%13%14%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

00.511.520153045607590HTRoss on for Yeats, 61'Williams on for Wilson, 74'Graham on for Stewart, 75'Agyeman on for Miller and Cartwright on for Tait, 85'Nilsen on for Aouchiche, 35'Polvara on for Bilalovic, 46'Devlin on for Lobban and Lazetic on for Karlsson, 74'Milanovic on for Nisbet, 80'Lissah 58'Falkirk 1.53Aberdeen 0.5700.511.520153045607590HTRoss on for Yeats, 61'Williams on for Wilson, 74'Graham on for Stewart, 75'Agyeman on for Miller and Cartwright on for Tait, 85'Nilsen on for Aouchiche, 35'Polvara on for Bilalovic, 46'Devlin on for Lobban and Lazetic on for Karlsson, 74'Milanovic on for Nisbet, 80'Lissah 58'1.530.57FalkirkAberdeen

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

FalkirkAberdeen

1.53 +0.39xG0.57 −0.75
0.70 −0.40xG on target0.00 −1.12
21 +10Shots7 −6
7 +3.3Shots on target0 −4.1
1 −0.9Big chances0 −1.8
32 +13Touches in the opposition box19 −2
56% +6Possession44% −4
442 +53Passes345 −61
81% +6Pass accuracy76% −2
60% +14Field tilt40% −7
55 +22Final-third entries36 −1
18 +8Box entries14 +3
7.9 −5Passes per defensive action15.2 0
5 +0.4Corners4 −1.1
26 +8Tackles18 +3
14 +5.3Interceptions3 −3.3
16 −15Clearances30 −2
0 −3.6Saves6 +3.2
9 −4Fouls21 +7
3 +1.0Offsides4 +2.2

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Falkirk

Tait 10', 0.27 xGHenderson 3', 0.18 xGTait 5', 0.10 xGMiller 41', 0.10 xGCartwright 86', 0.09 xGGraham 90+4', 0.08 xGGraham 87', 0.07 xGMiller 9', 0.06 xGTait 61', 0.06 xGSpencer 12', 0.05 xGStewart 44', 0.05 xGWilliams 83', 0.05 xGMiller 5', 0.04 xGTait 15', 0.04 xGStewart 20', 0.04 xGWilson 24', 0.04 xGAgyeman 90+1', 0.04 xGLissah 61', 0.02 xGMiller 62', 0.02 xGTait 71', 0.02 xGLissah 58', 0.11 xG, goal18%0.27 xGSix-yard box: 1 shot, 0.27 xG, 0 goals42%0.64 xGCentral box: 7 shots, 0.64 xG, 1 goal7%0.11 xGWide in the box: 2 shots, 0.11 xG, 0 goals31%0.48 xGEdge of the box: 10 shots, 0.48 xG, 0 goals3%0.04 xGFurther out: 1 shot, 0.04 xG, 0 goals

Aberdeen

Armstrong 53', 0.20 xGKnoester 29', 0.15 xGNisbet 69', 0.08 xGNisbet 45+2', 0.07 xGKeskinen 79', 0.05 xGKarlsson 27', 0.02 xGPolvara 64', 0.01 xG26%0.15 xGSix-yard box: 1 shot, 0.15 xG, 0 goals48%0.28 xGCentral box: 2 shots, 0.28 xG, 0 goals21%0.12 xGWide in the box: 2 shots, 0.12 xG, 0 goals5%0.03 xGEdge of the box: 2 shots, 0.03 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

FalkirkAberdeen

0.91 14 shots, 0 goalsOpen play0.21 4 shots, 0 goals
0.04 1 shot, 0 goalsCounter-attacks0.20 1 shot, 0 goals
0.58 6 shots, 1 goalSet pieces0.17 2 shots, 0 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
60 min (62%) · Falkirk 1.08, Aberdeen 0.44 xG
Falkirk ahead
36 min (38%) · Falkirk 0.45, Aberdeen 0.14 xG

Line-ups

1928205382122142916BainLissahAllanHendersonMcCannSpencerTaitWilsonYeatsMillerStewartGoalYellow card85'74'61'85'75'Falkirk 4-2-3-1John McGlynn138225416714178115MitovLobbanMilneKnoesterShinnieArmstrongAouchicheBilalovicKarlssonKeskinenNisbetYellow cardYellow cardYellow card74'35'46'74'80'Aberdeen 4-2-3-1Jimmy Thelin

Falkirk substitutes

  • 61' Ross for Yeats · yellow card 78'
  • 74' Williams for Wilson
  • 75' Graham for Stewart
  • 85' Cartwright for Tait
  • 85' Agyeman for Miller

Aberdeen substitutes

  • 35' Nilsen for Aouchiche · yellow card 60'
  • 46' Polvara for Bilalovic
  • 74' Devlin for Lobban
  • 74' Lazetic for Karlsson
  • 80' Milanovic for Nisbet

Players

Falkirk

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
BainGK900.000.0110.0540
LissahRB9010.130.0710.08811
AllanCB900.000.0000.01212
HendersonCB900.180.0310.0036
McCannLB900.000.0400.19136
Spencer DM900.050.2620.0476
TaitDM850.490.0300.0674
WilsonRW740.040.0220.0724
YeatsAM610.000.3020.0832
MillerLW8510.220.3540.44121
StewartST750.100.0400.0312
Ross FW290.000.0300.0413
WilliamsFW160.050.0000.0511
GrahamFW150.150.0010.0110
CartwrightMF50.090.0000.0311
AgyemanFW50.040.0210.0100

Aberdeen

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
MitovGK900.000.0110.0211
Lobban RB740.000.1610.2152
MilneCB900.000.0000.02213
KnoesterCB900.150.0200.0987
ShinnieLB900.000.0300.1077
Armstrong DM900.200.0200.0055
AouchicheDM350.000.1720.0112
BilalovicRW460.000.0000.0212
Karlsson AM740.020.0210.0360
KeskinenLW900.050.0100.0972
NisbetST800.150.0310.0112
Nilsen MF550.000.0200.0328
PolvaraMF440.010.0500.0845
DevlinDF160.000.0000.0100
LazeticFW160.000.0100.0000
MilanovicMF100.000.0000.0000

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Falkirk

Allan and Spencer: 5 passesSpencer and Stewart: 5 passesWilson and Stewart: 5 passesYeats and Stewart: 5 passesBain and Allan: 6 passesHenderson and Spencer: 6 passesTait and Wilson: 6 passesBain and Lissah: 7 passesHenderson and Miller: 7 passesMcCann and Yeats: 7 passesWilson and Miller: 7 passesLissah and Wilson: 8 passesHenderson and Tait: 8 passesAllan and Tait: 8 passesLissah and Spencer: 10 passesTait and Miller: 10 passesHenderson and Allan: 11 passesMcCann and Spencer: 11 passesSpencer and Miller: 11 passesLissah and Allan: 12 passesLissah and Tait: 14 passesMcCann and Tait: 15 passesBain and Henderson: 16 passesMcCann and Miller: 20 passesHenderson and McCann: 21 passesBain: 25 completed passesLissah: 35 completed passesHenderson: 39 completed passesAllan: 28 completed passesMcCann: 45 completed passesTait: 32 completed passesSpencer: 32 completed passesWilson: 15 completed passesYeats: 10 completed passesMiller: 30 completed passesStewart: 11 completed passes1928520321822142916BainLissahHendersonAllanMcCannTaitSpencerWilsonYeatsMillerStewartStarters until 61' · lines join pairs with 5+ passes

Aberdeen

Mitov and Nisbet: 3 passesLobban and Aouchiche: 3 passesShinnie and Armstrong: 3 passesShinnie and Karlsson: 3 passesShinnie and Keskinen: 3 passesAouchiche and Karlsson: 3 passesAouchiche and Keskinen: 3 passesKarlsson and Keskinen: 3 passesMitov and Milne: 4 passesKnoester and Milne: 5 passesKnoester and Aouchiche: 5 passesMilne and Armstrong: 5 passesMitov and Knoester: 6 passesLobban and Armstrong: 6 passesShinnie and Aouchiche: 6 passesAouchiche and Armstrong: 6 passesLobban and Milne: 8 passesKnoester and Shinnie: 8 passesMitov: 13 completed passesLobban: 10 completed passesKnoester: 15 completed passesMilne: 14 completed passesShinnie: 13 completed passesAouchiche: 15 completed passesArmstrong: 14 completed passesBilalovic: 3 completed passesKarlsson: 7 completed passesKeskinen: 4 completed passesNisbet: 4 completed passes138522471614178115MitovLobbanKnoesterMilneShinnieAouchicheArmstrongBilalovicKarlssonKeskinenNisbetStarters until 35' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Falkirk

FromToPasses
McCannMiller16
HendersonMcCann14
BainHenderson13
HendersonBain13
McCannHenderson11

Aberdeen

FromToPasses
KnoesterShinnie14
MilneLobban9
MitovKnoester8
MitovMilne7
ArmstrongMilne6

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Falkirk

3−4.47+0.413−1.48+0.64−1.210+0.413+6.35−1.44−3.55−3.48+1.22−3.04+1.03−1.03−3.711+6.80−3.82+0.13+0.26+1.79+5.15+3.10−1.34+2.04+1.52+0.90−0.40−0.60−0.35+4.2FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 19 matches

Aberdeen

6+1.28+0.617+1.412+3.83−2.18+0.210+2.74−1.69−0.515+8.42−3.21−2.62−2.22−3.54−3.02−0.53−0.42−0.52−1.66+1.51−1.30−1.12+1.11−0.77+4.70−0.30−0.21+0.61+0.51+0.3FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 19 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Falkirk

0.010.010.010.010.010.030.040.030.040.030.010.040.060.050.020.030.030.060.060.130.040.050.13−0.02−0.01−0.05−0.010.32LessMore

Aberdeen

0.020.010.040.020.020.030.030.020.090.010.030.030.030.070.010.01−0.010.050.06−0.04−0.010.010.19LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.32AttackFalkirk1.07 → 1.10Aberdeen1.22 → 1.19Defence (lower is better)Falkirk1.43 → 1.37Aberdeen1.39 → 1.40

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Falkirk
Top six25%37%+12
11th3%1%−2
Bottom<1%<1%0
Aberdeen
Top six37%25%−12
11th1%2%+1

From the forecast before the match (3 January 2026): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

FalkirkAberdeen
Expected goals1.321.17
Win39%32%
Expected Points1.461.25
Clean sheet31%27%

Falkirk 39%Draw 28%Aberdeen 32%

Most likely score 1–1, 13%. Both sides score 51%.

Aberdeen goalsFalkirk goals0123456+0123456+9%9%6%2%8%3%7%8%5%2%3%4%2%1%1%10%13%

From the forecast as it stood on 3 January 2026: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowFalkirk winDrawAberdeen win
Falkirk
Top six25%37%20%13%
11th3%1%4%4%
Bottom<1%<1%<1%1%
Aberdeen
Top six37%25%38%51%
11th1%2%1%<1%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Falkirk

  1. L0–127 DecDundee FC (A)xG 1.33–1.24
  2. W1–020 DecKilmarnock (A)xG 1.46–1.19
  3. L0–213 DecHearts (H)xG 1.03–1.51
  4. L0–36 DecHibernian (A)xG 0.49–2.02
  5. D0–03 DecMotherwell (H)xG 0.57–0.47
  6. D0–030 NovRangers (A)xG 0.12–2.24

Aberdeen

  1. L0–230 DecHibernian (A)xG 0.57–1.64
  2. D1–127 DecDundee United (H)xG 1.10–0.80
  3. L1–321 DecCeltic (A)xG 0.91–4.72
  4. W2–114 DecKilmarnock (H)xG 3.76–1.02
  5. W3–16 DecDundee FC (A)xG 1.38–1.12
  6. D3–33 DecSt. Mirren (H)xG 2.08–1.83

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

FalkirkAberdeen
Position8th7th
Played1919
Won, drawn, lost6–⁠6–⁠77–⁠4–⁠8
Points24 (1.26 per game)25 (1.32 per game)
Expected Points per game1.221.31
Goals20–⁠2720–⁠23
xG per game1.14–⁠1.461.32–⁠1.46
Home: points, xG per game1.22, 1.32–⁠1.171.30, 1.51–⁠1.31
Away: points, xG per game1.30, 0.97–⁠1.721.33, 1.11–⁠1.63
ManagerJohn McGlynn (19)Jimmy Thelin (57)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.32AttackFalkirk1.07, 10thAberdeen1.22, 6thDefence (lower is better)Falkirk1.43, 8thAberdeen1.39, 7th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovDecFalkirk attack: 1.07Aberdeen attack: 1.221.221.07AberdeenFalkirkDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovDecFalkirk defence: 1.43Aberdeen defence: 1.391.431.39

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

FalkirkAberdeen
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−10%+6%−7%−7%
Counter-attacks−12%+31%+12%+46%
Set pieces−22%−22%−1%+25%
Penalties−68%+30%−35%−35%
Headers−31%+17%−34%+13%
Left side−54%−16%+23%+18%
Centre−21%+3%−10%+2%
Right side+44%+16%−14%+13%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Falkirk attacking

Falkirk createdAberdeen concededLeft side−54%+13%Centre−21%+2%Right side+44%+18%Open play−10%−7%Counter-attacks−12%+46%Set pieces−22%+25%Headers−31%+13%

Aberdeen attacking

Aberdeen createdFalkirk concededLeft side+23%+16%Centre−10%+3%Right side−14%−16%Open play−7%+6%Counter-attacks+12%+31%Set pieces−1%−22%Headers−34%+17%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

FalkirkAberdeen

1.14xG1.32
1.46xG against1.46
50%Possession48%
11.5Shots12.9
13.0Shots against14.3
3.7Shots on target4.1
1.9Big chances1.8
19.1Touches in the opposition box21.0
389Passes406
75%Pass accuracy78%
4.6Corners5.1
46%Field tilt47%
33.2Final-third entries36.9
10.1Box entries10.6
12.7Passes per defensive action15.4

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Falkirk

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level451.131.70
Ahead161.120.71
Behind291.161.50

Aberdeen

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level521.211.27
Ahead160.901.41
Behind231.851.94

xG by period

Falkirk

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.190.172–1
16–300.210.303–6
31–450.200.382–9
46–600.210.194–2
61–750.170.226–4
76–900.150.203–5

Aberdeen

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.120.150–1
16–300.160.195–3
31–450.270.202–3
46–600.210.371–4
61–750.240.235–4
76–900.310.327–8

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Falkirk

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTBain 19Adams 15Lissah 2Yeats 1Allan 10Neilson 6Lissah 2Henderson 19McCann 9Lissah 7Hart 2Spencer 19Cartwright 7Tait 11Yeats 1Wilson 10Miller 4Williams 2Miller 8Tait 4Williams 3Miller 6Williams 6Ross 4MacIver 9Graham 7Samuel-Ogunsuyi 24-2-3-1 in every start

Aberdeen

GKCBCBCBRWBCMCMLWBAMAMSTMitov 19Devlin 13Milanovic 4Keskinen 2Milne 17Dorrington 2Knoester 18Jensen 11Lobban 6Devlin 2Armstrong 7Aouchiche 6Nilsen 4Shinnie 7Polvara 7Palaversa 3Gyamfi 6Jensen 4Shinnie 3Aouchiche 9Armstrong 7Polvara 2Karlsson 14Keskinen 6Nisbet 9Lazetic 7Yengi 33-4-2-1 in 7 of 19 starts

Formations: 3-4-2-1 (7), 4-2-3-1 (6), 3-4-3 (4), 3-5-2 (1), 5-4-1 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
31 August 2025Aberdeen0–1FalkirkxG 0.96–1.26

1 league meeting since 2020/21: Falkirk won 1, Aberdeen won 0, and 0 were drawn. Goals 1–0 and xG 1.26–0.96 per game.

Key players

Falkirk

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
MacIver9661310.410.12
Graham7699400.450.07
Miller181,428330.230.21
Wilson10790110.250.15

Aberdeen

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Karlsson141,144500.370.13
Nisbet9759110.220.16
Armstrong141,174130.150.22
Aouchiche151,234300.240.08

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.