Digressive Celts

Matches › 2025/26

Hibernian 3–0 Falkirk

Saturday 6 December 2025, 15:00 · Easter Road Stadium · Round 16 · Half-time 2–0 · Referee Matthew McDermid · Attendance 18,951

Hibernian Boyle 36' (pen), Bowie 41', 80'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

HibernianFalkirk
Goals30
xG2.020.49
Non-penalty xG1.230.49
Expected Points2.570.28

Hibernian 81%Draw 15%Falkirk 4%

Most likely score 2–0, 24%. Final score 3–0, 13%.

Falkirk goalsHibernian goals0123456+0123456+3%1%15%9%2%13%3%13%7%2%3%2%24%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

01230153045607590HTYouan on for Boyle, 76'Campbell on for Barlaser and Newell on for Chaiwa, 77'Megwa on for Cadden, 85'Levitt on for Bowie, 88'Agyeman on for Graham and Cartwright on for Tait, 46'Wilson on for Williams, 76'Arfield on for Ross and Hart on for Allan, 77'Boyle 36' (pen)Bowie 41'Bowie 80'Hibernian 2.02Falkirk 0.4901230153045607590HTYouan on for Boyle, 76'Campbell on for Barlaser and Newell on for Chaiwa, 77'Megwa on for Cadden, 85'Levitt on for Bowie, 88'Agyeman on for Graham and Cartwright on for Tait, 46'Wilson on for Williams, 76'Arfield on for Ross and Hart on for Allan, 77'Boyle 36' (pen)Bowie 41'Bowie 80'2.020.49HibernianFalkirk

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

HibernianFalkirk

2.02 +0.20xG0.49 −0.66
1.23Non-penalty xG0.49
2.62 +1.07xG on target1.70 +0.53
10 −3Shots8 −4
5 −0.2Shots on target4 −0.1
2 −0.8Big chances1 −0.9
24 0Touches in the opposition box21 +2
42% −6Possession58% +8
297 −113Passes417 +28
75% −6Pass accuracy83% +8
32% −16Field tilt68% +22
26 −10Final-third entries30 −3
11 0Box entries14 +4
10.6 −9Passes per defensive action16.3 +3
10 +4.9Corners4 −0.7
23 +12Tackles12 −6
9 +1.5Interceptions4 −4.5
25 −2Clearances38 +8
5 +2.1Saves2 −1.9
13 +3Fouls9 −4
0 −2.1Offsides2 −0.2

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Hibernian

Cadden 8', 0.15 xGMulligan 79', 0.13 xGMcGrath 19', 0.08 xGIredale 4', 0.06 xGChaiwa 52', 0.06 xGChaiwa 13', 0.03 xGChaiwa 12', 0.02 xGBowie 80', 0.59 xG, goalBowie 41', 0.10 xG, goal48%0.59 xGSix-yard box: 1 shot, 0.59 xG, 1 goal35%0.43 xGCentral box: 4 shots, 0.43 xG, 0 goals13%0.16 xGWide in the box: 2 shots, 0.16 xG, 1 goal2%0.03 xGEdge of the box: 1 shot, 0.03 xG, 0 goals2%0.02 xGFurther out: 1 shot, 0.02 xG, 0 goals

Falkirk

Ross 56', 0.13 xGWilliams 22', 0.09 xGGraham 39', 0.09 xGSpencer 21', 0.08 xGRoss 50', 0.05 xGAgyeman 52', 0.03 xGCartwright 51', 0.01 xGCartwright 73', 0.01 xG18%0.09 xGSix-yard box: 1 shot, 0.09 xG, 0 goals58%0.29 xGCentral box: 4 shots, 0.29 xG, 0 goals6%0.03 xGWide in the box: 1 shot, 0.03 xG, 0 goals16%0.08 xGEdge of the box: 1 shot, 0.08 xG, 0 goals2%0.01 xGFurther out: 1 shot, 0.01 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

HibernianFalkirk

1.23 9 shots, 2 goalsOpen play0.20 4 shots, 0 goals
0.00 0 shots, 0 goalsCounter-attacks0.13 1 shot, 0 goals
0.00 0 shots, 0 goalsSet pieces0.16 3 shots, 0 goals
0.79 1 shot, 1 goalPenalties0.00 0 shots, 0 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
36 min (40%) · Hibernian 1.12, Falkirk 0.17 xG
Hibernian ahead
54 min (60%) · Hibernian 0.89, Falkirk 0.33 xG

Line-ups

1533152212201417109SallingerO'HoraBushiriIredaleBarlaserCaddenMulliganChaiwaMcGrathBoyleBowieGoalGoalGoalYellow card77'85'77'76'88'Hibernian 3-1-4-2David Gray192028538212429237BainAllanLissahHendersonMcCannSpencerTaitWilliamsMillerRossGrahamYellow cardYellow cardYellow cardYellow card77'46'76'77'46'Falkirk 4-2-3-1John McGlynn

Hibernian substitutes

  • 76' Youan for Boyle
  • 77' Newell for Chaiwa
  • 77' Campbell for Barlaser · 1 assist
  • 85' Megwa for Cadden
  • 88' Levitt for Bowie

Falkirk substitutes

  • 46' Cartwright for Tait
  • 46' Agyeman for Graham
  • 76' Wilson for Williams
  • 77' Hart for Allan
  • 77' Arfield for Ross

Players

Hibernian

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
SallingerGK900.000.0000.0460
O'HoraCB900.000.0000.02110
BushiriCB900.000.0000.0209
IredaleCB900.060.0110.0659
BarlaserDM770.000.0200.0743
CaddenRWB850.150.0100.0865
MulliganCM9010.130.0730.2267
ChaiwaCM770.110.0100.0331
McGrathLWB900.080.0110.0249
BoyleST7610.790.0100.0020
Bowie ST8820.700.081−0.1102
YouanFW140.000.0000.0212
NewellMF130.000.0000.0100
CampbellMF1310.000.5710.1511
MegwaDF50.000.0000.0000
LevittMF20.000.0000.0000

Falkirk

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
BainGK900.000.0000.0113
AllanRB770.000.0100.0435
Lissah CB900.000.0210.08710
HendersonCB900.000.0100.05213
McCann LB900.000.0200.0732
SpencerDM900.080.0300.08103
Tait DM460.000.0400.0014
WilliamsRW760.090.1820.2381
Miller AM900.000.0410.0531
RossLW770.180.0200.0723
GrahamST460.090.041−0.0301
CartwrightMF440.020.0100.0452
AgyemanFW440.030.0110.0510
WilsonFW140.000.0200.0101
HartDF130.000.0000.0114
ArfieldMF130.000.0000.0001

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Hibernian

Sallinger and Cadden: 3 passesIredale and Bowie: 3 passesBushiri and Mulligan: 3 passesChaiwa and Mulligan: 3 passesMcGrath and Boyle: 3 passesIredale and Chaiwa: 4 passesIredale and Mulligan: 4 passesO'Hora and Mulligan: 4 passesSallinger and O'Hora: 5 passesBushiri and Barlaser: 5 passesCadden and Boyle: 5 passesSallinger and Bushiri: 6 passesIredale and Barlaser: 6 passesO'Hora and Barlaser: 6 passesBarlaser and Chaiwa: 6 passesBarlaser and Cadden: 7 passesCadden and Mulligan: 8 passesChaiwa and McGrath: 8 passesSallinger and Iredale: 9 passesBushiri and O'Hora: 10 passesBarlaser and Mulligan: 10 passesBarlaser and McGrath: 12 passesO'Hora and Cadden: 13 passesIredale and Bushiri: 14 passesIredale and McGrath: 18 passesSallinger: 17 completed passesIredale: 29 completed passesBushiri: 24 completed passesO'Hora: 23 completed passesBarlaser: 32 completed passesCadden: 18 completed passesChaiwa: 13 completed passesMulligan: 15 completed passesMcGrath: 24 completed passesBoyle: 8 completed passesBowie: 2 completed passes1153352212142017109SallingerIredaleBushiriO'HoraBarlaserCaddenChaiwaMulliganMcGrathBoyleBowieStarters until 76' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Falkirk

Allan and Miller: 3 passesLissah and Williams: 3 passesMcCann and Spencer: 3 passesMcCann and Williams: 3 passesMcCann and Ross: 3 passesHenderson and Williams: 4 passesBain and Spencer: 5 passesLissah and Spencer: 5 passesSpencer and Ross: 5 passesLissah and Henderson: 6 passesHenderson and Spencer: 6 passesAllan and Spencer: 7 passesSpencer and Williams: 7 passesWilliams and Graham: 7 passesHenderson and McCann: 8 passesAllan and Lissah: 10 passesAllan and Williams: 10 passesAllan and Tait: 11 passesBain and Henderson: 14 passesBain and Lissah: 16 passesBain: 21 completed passesAllan: 22 completed passesLissah: 24 completed passesHenderson: 23 completed passesMcCann: 9 completed passesTait: 8 completed passesSpencer: 23 completed passesWilliams: 20 completed passesMiller: 5 completed passesRoss: 7 completed passesGraham: 6 completed passes192028532182429237BainAllanLissahHendersonMcCannTaitSpencerWilliamsMillerRossGrahamStarters until 46' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Hibernian

FromToPasses
O'HoraCadden12
IredaleMcGrath11
McGrathIredale10
BushiriO'Hora8
BushiriIredale7

Falkirk

FromToPasses
HendersonLissah15
BainHenderson14
AllanLissah12
LissahBain12
HendersonBain11

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Hibernian

4+1.14−1.317+4.312+5.11−3.03−2.13−3.55−1.68+1.74−1.64−0.72−2.00−3.22−1.67+3.14+0.12−1.93+0.65+2.911+7.73+1.04+2.41+0.11−0.14+1.71+0.41+0.31+0.71+0.52+1.3FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 15 matches

Falkirk

8+0.57−0.121+6.97−0.52−3.58−1.18+1.74−3.37−0.16−2.57−0.34−0.96+3.22−2.35−2.13−1.41−2.91−1.03+0.33−1.22−2.41−0.60−1.31−1.10−2.91+0.10−0.30−0.60−0.30−0.9FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 15 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Hibernian

0.030.010.010.020.010.010.070.020.010.010.020.080.010.020.020.010.040.020.010.040.03−0.010.13LessMore

Falkirk

0.020.010.020.020.010.020.010.050.010.020.040.01−0.010.020.080.020.050.02−0.02−0.040.130.120.15LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.34AttackHibernian1.52 → 1.55Falkirk1.12 → 1.08Defence (lower is better)Hibernian1.16 → 1.13Falkirk1.42 → 1.48

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Hibernian
Top six93%96%+3
Falkirk
Top six47%40%−7
11th4%5%+1
Bottom1%1%0
Aberdeen
Top six37%39%+2
11th3%3%0

From the forecast before the match (6 December 2025): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

HibernianFalkirk
Expected goals1.890.87
Win61%16%
Expected Points2.050.72
Clean sheet42%15%

Hibernian 61%Draw 23%Falkirk 16%

Most likely score 1–0, 11%. Both sides score 50%.

Falkirk goalsHibernian goals0123456+0123456+7%5%2%5%1%4%1%7%6%3%3%3%1%1%1%11%11%11%10%

From the forecast as it stood on 6 December 2025: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowHibernian winDrawFalkirk win
Hibernian
Top six93%96%91%86%
Falkirk
Top six47%40%52%64%
11th4%5%3%1%
Bottom1%1%1%<1%
Aberdeen
Top six37%39%36%32%
11th3%3%3%4%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Hibernian

  1. L1–230 NovCeltic (H)xG 1.65–1.33
  2. L0–225 NovMotherwell (A)xG 0.77–2.14
  3. W2–022 NovDundee FC (H)xG 2.26–0.56
  4. W3–08 NovSt. Mirren (A)xG 1.62–0.78
  5. D2–21 NovLivingston (A)xG 0.76–1.87
  6. L0–129 OctRangers (H)xG 2.01–0.52

Falkirk

  1. D0–03 DecMotherwell (H)xG 0.57–0.47
  2. D0–030 NovRangers (A)xG 0.12–2.24
  3. W3–022 NovDundee United (A)xG 1.78–0.74
  4. D1–18 NovLivingston (H)xG 1.82–0.62
  5. W3–11 NovKilmarnock (H)xG 2.08–0.43
  6. L0–429 OctCeltic (A)xG 0.47–4.29

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

HibernianFalkirk
Position5th6th
Played1515
Won, drawn, lost5–⁠6–⁠45–⁠6–⁠4
Points21 (1.40 per game)21 (1.40 per game)
Expected Points per game1.831.27
Goals24–⁠1819–⁠21
xG per game1.82–⁠1.161.15–⁠1.45
Home: points, xG per game1.29, 2.28–⁠0.931.38, 1.36–⁠1.13
Away: points, xG per game1.50, 1.41–⁠1.371.43, 0.92–⁠1.82
ManagerDavid Gray (55)John McGlynn (15)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.34AttackHibernian1.52, 4thFalkirk1.12, 10thDefence (lower is better)Hibernian1.16, 4thFalkirk1.42, 7th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovDecHibernian attack: 1.52Falkirk attack: 1.121.521.12FalkirkHibernianDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovDecHibernian defence: 1.16Falkirk defence: 1.421.421.16

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

HibernianFalkirk
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play+3%+4%−10%+8%
Counter-attacks+126%−6%average+54%
Set pieces+31%−56%−16%−9%
Penalties+81%−27%−64%−27%
Headers+24%−24%−30%+18%
Left side+48%+19%−50%−16%
Centre+26%−24%−21%+10%
Right side+4%−25%+55%+34%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Hibernian attacking

Hibernian createdFalkirk concededLeft side+48%+34%Centre+26%+10%Right side+4%−16%Open play+3%+8%Counter-attacks+126%+54%Set pieces+31%−9%Headers+24%+18%

Falkirk attacking

Falkirk createdHibernian concededLeft side−50%−25%Centre−21%−24%Right side+55%+19%Open play−10%+4%Counter-attacksaverage−6%Set pieces−16%−56%Headers−30%−24%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

HibernianFalkirk

1.82xG1.15
1.16xG against1.45
48%Possession50%
12.9Shots11.5
10.7Shots against13.3
5.2Shots on target4.1
2.8Big chances1.9
24.3Touches in the opposition box19.4
410Passes388
81%Pass accuracy75%
5.1Corners4.7
48%Field tilt46%
35.9Final-third entries32.8
10.9Box entries10.2
19.3Passes per defensive action12.9

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Hibernian

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level411.401.23
Ahead302.051.21
Behind192.340.94

Falkirk

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level481.151.56
Ahead181.070.67
Behind241.221.82

xG by period

Hibernian

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.240.082–2
16–300.290.247–4
31–450.250.273–5
46–600.490.126–2
61–750.250.111–2
76–900.290.335–3

Falkirk

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.220.132–0
16–300.240.333–6
31–450.180.342–6
46–600.170.223–2
61–750.200.276–4
76–900.140.153–3

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Hibernian

GKCBCBCBRWBCMCMLWBAMSTSTSallinger 11Smith 4Hanley 11O'Hora 9Bushiri 11Iredale 12Obita 2C. Cadden 11Mulligan 4Mulligan 10Chaiwa 4Barlaser 7McGrath 5Levitt 4N. Cadden 10Obita 5McGrath 5Boyle 4Barlaser 3Boyle 7Klidje 5Bowie 13Hoilett 3McGrath 23-4-1-2 in 6 of 15 starts

Formations: 3-4-1-2 (6), 3-1-4-2 (3), 3-4-2-1 (2), 3-4-3 (2), 5-3-2 (1), 5-4-1 (1)

Falkirk

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTBain 15Adams 14Yeats 1Allan 7Neilson 6McCann 1Henderson 15McCann 7Lissah 6Neilson 1Spencer 15Cartwright 5Tait 10Wilson 7Miller 4Arfield 2Tait 4Miller 4Williams 3Miller 6Williams 5Ross 2MacIver 9Graham 4Samuel-Ogunsuyi 24-2-3-1 in every start

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
23 September 2025Falkirk2–2HibernianxG 1.18–2.43

1 league meeting since 2020/21: Hibernian won 0, Falkirk won 0, and 1 was a draw. Goals 2–2 and xG 2.43–1.18 per game.

Key players

Hibernian

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Klidje5521210.690.05
Boyle11914300.510.11
McGrath121,004520.320.21
Bowie131,076430.330.17

Falkirk

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
MacIver9661310.410.12
Graham4464300.480.04
Miller141,082330.250.20
Wilson7552100.220.11

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.