Digressive Celts

Matches › 2023/24

Hibernian 1–0 Kilmarnock

Saturday 11 November 2023, 15:00 · Easter Road Stadium · Round 13 · Half-time 1–0 · Referee David Dickinson · Attendance 16,250

Hibernian Campbell 36'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

HibernianKilmarnock
Goals10
xG0.410.46
Expected Points1.191.28

Hibernian 22%Draw 53%Kilmarnock 25%

Most likely score 0–0, 43%. Final score 1–0, 17%.

Kilmarnock goalsHibernian goals0123456+0123456+19%4%17%10%2%3%1%43%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

00.250.50153045607590HTYouan on for Vente, 56'Jeggo on for Levitt, 68'Stevenson on for Tavares, 90+3'Kennedy on for Donnelly, 46'Dallas on for Polworth, 75'McKenzie on for Armstrong, Murray on for Watson, and Davies on for Deas, 87'Campbell 36'Kilmarnock 0.46Hibernian 0.4100.250.50153045607590HTYouan on for Vente, 56'Jeggo on for Levitt, 68'Stevenson on for Tavares, 90+3'Kennedy on for Donnelly, 46'Dallas on for Polworth, 75'McKenzie on for Armstrong, Murray on for Watson, and Davies on for Deas, 87'Campbell 36'0.460.41HibernianKilmarnock

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

HibernianKilmarnock

0.41 −0.79xG0.46 −0.93
0.98 −0.22xG on target0.46 −0.94
7 −5Shots9 −6
5 +1.0Shots on target1 −3.2
1 −1.1Big chances0 −2.1
11 −16Touches in the opposition box30 +5
53% +1Possession47% −1
440 +27Passes370 +26
81% +5Pass accuracy74% +9
35% −14Field tilt65% +13
27 −10Final-third entries38 +2
8 −5Box entries13 0
32.6 +18Passes per defensive action11.2 −4
5 +0.2Corners10 +3.2
13 −2Tackles17 +5
4 −4.2Interceptions5 −2.1
30 +9Clearances10 −8
1 −1.3Saves4 +1.2
6 −3.7Fouls14 +2.4
2 +0.8Offsides1 +0.6

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Hibernian

Vente 39', 0.05 xGBushiri 55', 0.04 xGTavares 4', 0.03 xGCampbell 29', 0.03 xGCampbell 86', 0.03 xGTavares 71', 0.02 xGCampbell 36', 0.21 xG, goal0%0.00 xGSix-yard box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals71%0.30 xGCentral box: 3 shots, 0.30 xG, 1 goal17%0.07 xGWide in the box: 2 shots, 0.07 xG, 0 goals12%0.05 xGEdge of the box: 2 shots, 0.05 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Kilmarnock

Donnelly 7', 0.13 xGMcKenzie 90', 0.11 xGArmstrong 13', 0.05 xGWright 90+6', 0.05 xGWatkins 28', 0.04 xGLyons 90+3', 0.04 xGWright 70', 0.02 xGWright 74', 0.02 xGLyons 79', 0.02 xG0%0.00 xGSix-yard box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals81%0.38 xGCentral box: 7 shots, 0.38 xG, 0 goals11%0.05 xGWide in the box: 1 shot, 0.05 xG, 0 goals9%0.04 xGEdge of the box: 1 shot, 0.04 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

HibernianKilmarnock

0.38 6 shots, 1 goalOpen play0.17 3 shots, 0 goals
0.00 0 shots, 0 goalsCounter-attacks0.04 1 shot, 0 goals
0.04 1 shot, 0 goalsSet pieces0.25 5 shots, 0 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
36 min (37%) · Hibernian 0.27, Kilmarnock 0.21 xG
Hibernian ahead
61 min (63%) · Hibernian 0.14, Kilmarnock 0.25 xG

Line-ups

12533213261129109MarshallMillerFishBushiriObitaCampbellLevittNewellTavaresBoyleVenteYellow cardGoalYellow card68'90+3'56'Hibernian 4-4-2Nick Montgomery14517118226122331DennisWrightMayoFindlayArmstrongLyonsDonnellyDeasWatsonWatkinsPolworthYellow cardYellow cardYellow cardYellow card87'46'87'87'75'Kilmarnock 3-4-3Derek McInnes

Hibernian substitutes

  • 56' Youan for Vente
  • 68' Jeggo for Levitt
  • 90+3' Stevenson for Tavares

Kilmarnock substitutes

  • 46' Kennedy for Donnelly
  • 75' Dallas for Polworth
  • 87' Davies for Deas
  • 87' Murray for Watson
  • 87' McKenzie for Armstrong · yellow card 90+1'

Players

Hibernian

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
MarshallGK900.000.0000.0432
Miller RB900.000.0100.0341
FishCB900.000.0000.03114
BushiriCB900.040.0000.0557
ObitaLB900.000.0420.1476
Campbell RM9010.280.0300.0884
LevittCM680.000.001−0.0114
NewellCM900.000.0300.0754
TavaresLM900.050.0100.0003
BoyleST9010.000.0720.1030
VenteST560.050.0100.0001
YouanFW340.000.0110.0445
JeggoMF220.000.0000.0000
StevensonDF00.000.000––0

Kilmarnock

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
DennisGK900.000.0000.0570
Wright CB900.080.040−0.1553
MayoCB900.000.0100.0443
Findlay CB900.000.0000.0543
ArmstrongRWB870.050.1820.12111
Lyons CM900.060.010−0.0115
Donnelly CM460.130.0000.0915
DeasLWB870.000.0100.0135
WatsonRW870.000.030−0.0212
WatkinsST900.040.0100.0360
PolworthLW750.000.0210.0341
KennedyMF440.000.2330.1453
DallasFW150.000.0000.0021
DaviesDF30.000.0300.0520
MurrayMF30.000.0100.0440
McKenzie MF30.110.0610.0600

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Hibernian

Marshall and Newell: 4 passesMiller and Newell: 4 passesMiller and Boyle: 4 passesFish and Campbell: 4 passesObita and Boyle: 4 passesCampbell and Vente: 4 passesNewell and Levitt: 4 passesLevitt and Tavares: 4 passesMarshall and Obita: 5 passesMiller and Levitt: 5 passesMiller and Vente: 5 passesBushiri and Tavares: 5 passesObita and Campbell: 5 passesFish and Newell: 7 passesBushiri and Obita: 8 passesCampbell and Boyle: 8 passesNewell and Tavares: 8 passesMiller and Fish: 10 passesBushiri and Fish: 10 passesObita and Newell: 10 passesObita and Levitt: 11 passesMarshall and Fish: 13 passesObita and Tavares: 13 passesMiller and Campbell: 14 passesBushiri and Levitt: 14 passesMarshall and Bushiri: 19 passesMarshall: 22 completed passesMiller: 22 completed passesBushiri: 33 completed passesFish: 30 completed passesObita: 31 completed passesCampbell: 18 completed passesNewell: 22 completed passesLevitt: 27 completed passesTavares: 16 completed passesBoyle: 11 completed passesVente: 10 completed passes12335213211629109MarshallMillerBushiriFishObitaCampbellNewellLevittTavaresBoyleVenteStarters until 56' · lines join pairs with 4+ passes

Kilmarnock

Dennis and Mayo: 3 passesWright and Armstrong: 3 passesWright and Polworth: 3 passesArmstrong and Donnelly: 3 passesDeas and Lyons: 3 passesPolworth and Watkins: 3 passesMayo and Armstrong: 4 passesFindlay and Deas: 4 passesArmstrong and Polworth: 4 passesArmstrong and Watkins: 4 passesDennis and Findlay: 5 passesMayo and Polworth: 5 passesFindlay and Donnelly: 5 passesLyons and Polworth: 5 passesDennis and Wright: 6 passesWright and Mayo: 7 passesDonnelly and Polworth: 7 passesMayo and Findlay: 8 passesDeas and Polworth: 11 passesFindlay and Polworth: 16 passesDennis: 14 completed passesWright: 13 completed passesMayo: 16 completed passesFindlay: 21 completed passesArmstrong: 10 completed passesDeas: 11 completed passesLyons: 6 completed passesDonnelly: 11 completed passesPolworth: 28 completed passesWatson: 4 completed passesWatkins: 8 completed passes14517116822311223DennisWrightMayoFindlayArmstrongDeasLyonsDonnellyPolworthWatsonWatkinsStarters until 46' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Hibernian

FromToPasses
BushiriMarshall19
FishMarshall14
LevittBushiri11
ObitaTavares11
FishMiller10

Kilmarnock

FromToPasses
PolworthFindlay10
FindlayPolworth10
DeasPolworth8
MayoArmstrong7
MayoFindlay7

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Hibernian

5−0.912+5.920+4.27−0.89+3.86−1.76−0.73−2.88+0.27−0.412+4.32−2.72−0.96−0.66+0.83−3.82−1.32+0.10−3.70−2.91−0.72+0.80−0.62+0.20−2.22+1.60−0.30−0.20−0.40−0.8FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 12 matches

Kilmarnock

5+1.05−5.65−2.35+0.32−5.04−4.41−5.62−5.15−2.01−4.33−2.87+3.26+0.77+1.710+5.24+0.52−1.01−2.19+4.69+6.74+1.70−0.86+4.43+1.11+0.70−0.22+1.20−0.30−0.70−7.8FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 12 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Hibernian

0.010.010.010.010.030.010.020.030.040.030.010.050.010.010.020.010.020.05−0.010.04−0.010.020.090.08LessMore

Kilmarnock

0.010.020.010.020.010.020.010.020.030.020.030.040.070.010.010.040.030.020.01−0.050.04−0.10−0.010.070.12LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.31AttackHibernian1.24 → 1.23Kilmarnock1.21 → 1.19Defence (lower is better)Hibernian1.27 → 1.26Kilmarnock1.30 → 1.29

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Hibernian
Top six53%63%+10
11th4%2%−2
Bottom2%1%−1
Kilmarnock
Top six67%59%−8
11th2%3%+1
Bottom1%1%0

From the forecast before the match (11 November 2023): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

HibernianKilmarnock
Expected goals1.471.06
Win46%27%
Expected Points1.651.07
Clean sheet35%23%

Hibernian 46%Draw 27%Kilmarnock 27%

Most likely score 1–1, 13%. Both sides score 51%.

Kilmarnock goalsHibernian goals0123456+0123456+9%8%4%2%7%2%9%9%5%2%4%4%2%2%2%11%13%

From the forecast as it stood on 11 November 2023: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowHibernian winDrawKilmarnock win
Hibernian
Top six53%63%48%40%
11th4%2%4%6%
Bottom2%1%2%3%
Kilmarnock
Top six67%59%68%80%
11th2%3%2%1%
Bottom1%1%1%<1%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Hibernian

  1. D2–28 NovSt. Mirren (A)xG 0.89–1.60
  2. D2–231 OctRoss County (H)xG 0.50–0.52
  3. D0–028 OctCeltic (H)xG 0.57–1.49
  4. L0–421 OctRangers (A)xG 0.45–2.69
  5. D2–27 OctHearts (A)xG 1.32–1.25
  6. D0–030 SepDundee FC (H)xG 2.62–0.55

Kilmarnock

  1. W1–04 NovMotherwell (H)xG 1.95–0.61
  2. L1–21 NovSt. Johnstone (A)xG 1.30–1.74
  3. W2–029 OctAberdeen (H)xG 1.85–0.29
  4. W3–121 OctLivingston (H)xG 1.21–1.13
  5. L1–37 OctCeltic (A)xG 1.54–2.75
  6. D1–130 SepSt. Mirren (H)xG 0.73–0.79

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

HibernianKilmarnock
Position8th4th
Played1212
Won, drawn, lost2–⁠6–⁠44–⁠4–⁠4
Points12 (1.00 per game)16 (1.33 per game)
Expected Points per game1.331.48
Goals17–⁠2015–⁠14
xG per game1.20–⁠1.201.39–⁠1.19
Home: points, xG per game1.00, 1.45–⁠1.072.00, 1.22–⁠0.83
Away: points, xG per game1.00, 0.94–⁠1.320.40, 1.64–⁠1.70
ManagerNick Montgomery (8)Derek McInnes (50)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.31AttackHibernian1.24, 4thKilmarnock1.21, 5thDefence (lower is better)Hibernian1.27, 3rdKilmarnock1.30, 4th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovHibernian attack: 1.24Kilmarnock attack: 1.211.241.21KilmarnockHibernianDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovHibernian defence: 1.27Kilmarnock defence: 1.301.301.27

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

HibernianKilmarnock
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−12%−11%−7%−31%
Counter-attacks−45%−1%−49%−5%
Set pieces+4%−29%+31%+21%
Penalties−48%+3%+3%+3%
Headers−10%−15%+49%−19%
Left side+8%+1%+17%−66%
Centre−26%−30%−11%−3%
Right side+5%average+8%+16%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Hibernian attacking

Hibernian createdKilmarnock concededLeft side+8%+16%Centre−26%−3%Right side+5%−66%Open play−12%−31%Counter-attacks−45%−5%Set pieces+4%+21%Headers−10%−19%

Kilmarnock attacking

Kilmarnock createdHibernian concededLeft side+17%averageCentre−11%−30%Right side+8%+1%Open play−7%−11%Counter-attacks−49%−1%Set pieces+31%−29%Headers+49%−15%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

HibernianKilmarnock

1.20xG1.39
1.20xG against1.19
52%Possession48%
11.8Shots15.2
13.8Shots against11.9
4.0Shots on target4.2
2.1Big chances2.1
26.7Touches in the opposition box24.6
413Passes344
76%Pass accuracy65%
4.8Corners6.8
49%Field tilt52%
37.4Final-third entries35.9
12.6Box entries12.5
14.9Passes per defensive action15.5

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Hibernian

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level461.001.26
Ahead201.511.09
Behind241.301.16

Kilmarnock

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level461.231.02
Ahead201.181.28
Behind231.901.48

xG by period

Hibernian

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.100.162–2
16–300.200.140–3
31–450.150.132–1
46–600.230.232–2
61–750.170.277–6
76–900.350.274–6

Kilmarnock

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.090.171–3
16–300.240.193–2
31–450.260.192–3
46–600.270.113–3
61–750.230.154–0
76–900.300.392–3

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Hibernian

GKRBCBCBLBRMCMCMLMSTSTMarshall 11Wollacott 1Miller 8Fish 1Whittaker 1Fish 11Bushiri 7Hanlon 5Stevenson 1Obita 6Stevenson 5Levitt 1Boyle 5Youan 4Tavares 2Jeggo 10Levitt 2Doyle-Hayes 1Newell 11Youan 6Boyle 3Tavares 2Vente 10Le Fondre 4Boyle 1Doidge 5Campbell 3Delferriere 14-4-2 in 7 of 12 starts

Formations: 4-4-2 (7), 4-3-3 (2), 4-4-1-1 (1), 3-5-2 (1), 4-2-3-1 (1)

Kilmarnock

GKCBCBCBRWBCMCMCMLWBSTSTDennis 12Mayo 11Wright 8Deas 6Findlay 11Armstrong 11Mayo 1Watson 9Watkins 1Armstrong 1Lyons 12Deas 2Magennis 7Polworth 3Kennedy 1Kennedy 6Ndaba 5Davies 1Watkins 9Kennedy 4Vassell 9Findlay 1Cameron 13-5-2 in 7 of 12 starts

Formations: 3-5-2 (7), 4-4-2 (2), 3-1-4-2 (1), 4-1-4-1 (1), 5-3-2 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
16 September 2023Kilmarnock2–2HibernianxG 0.83–0.92
18 February 2023Hibernian2–0KilmarnockxG 2.94–0.82
12 November 2022Kilmarnock1–0HibernianxG 0.96–0.85
3 September 2022Hibernian1–0KilmarnockxG 1.44–0.39
16 January 2021Hibernian2–0KilmarnockxG 0.68–0.64
24 October 2020Kilmarnock0–1HibernianxG 0.97–1.50

7 league meetings since 2020/21: Hibernian won 5, Kilmarnock won 1, and 1 was a draw. Goals 10–4 and xG 1.36–0.76 per game.

Key players

Hibernian

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Le Fondre4506310.410.02
Youan10932220.260.14
Boyle9853100.150.19
Hanlon5476010.190.06

Kilmarnock

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Armstrong121,053340.330.37
Vassell9769500.370.09
Kennedy11986010.170.18
Watson9846120.120.15

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.