Digressive Celts

Matches › 2023/24

Kilmarnock 5–2 St. Mirren

Saturday 16 March 2024, 15:00 · The BBSP Stadium Rugby Park · Round 30 · Half-time 0–2 · Referee Ross Hardie · Attendance 8,460

Kilmarnock Vassell 61', 73', Armstrong 65' (pen), Watkins 68', Watson 79'

St. Mirren Dunne 20', Mandron 39'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

KilmarnockSt. Mirren
Goals52
xG1.910.74
Non-penalty xG1.120.74
Expected Points2.290.49

Kilmarnock 69%Draw 22%St. Mirren 9%

Most likely score 2–0, 16%. Final score 5–2, <1%.

St. Mirren goalsKilmarnock goals0123456+0123456+3%2%4%5%8%8%3%2%2%13%13%16%14%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

00.511.520153045607590HTvan Veen on for Watkins, McKenzie on for Kennedy, and Cameron on for Vassell, 82'Stewart on for Armstrong, 83'Ndaba on for Deas, 90'Olusanya on for McMenamin, 66'Jamieson on for Flynn, 70'Ayunga on for Kiltie, 71'Brown on for Tanser, 72'Vassell 61'Armstrong 65' (pen)Watkins 68'Vassell 73'Watson 79'Dunne 20'Mandron 39'Kilmarnock 1.91St. Mirren 0.7400.511.520153045607590HTvan Veen on for Watkins, McKenzie on for Kennedy, and Cameron on for Vassell, 82'Stewart on for Armstrong, 83'Ndaba on for Deas, 90'Olusanya on for McMenamin, 66'Jamieson on for Flynn, 70'Ayunga on for Kiltie, 71'Brown on for Tanser, 72'Vassell 61'Armstrong 65' (pen)Watkins 68'Vassell 73'Watson 79'Dunne 20'Mandron 39'1.910.74KilmarnockSt. Mirren

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

KilmarnockSt. Mirren

1.91 +0.69xG0.74 −0.37
1.12Non-penalty xG0.74
3.97 +2.63xG on target1.26 0.00
13 0Shots7 −4
8 +4.1Shots on target2 −1.5
2 0.0Big chances3 +1.1
30 +8Touches in the opposition box16 −3
53% +6Possession47% +1
344 +11Passes312 −31
67% +3Pass accuracy59% −7
48% −1Field tilt52% +6
35 +2Final-third entries22 −12
16 +4.0Box entries5 −4.4
7.8 −7Passes per defensive action11.4 −5
1 −5.4Corners3 −1.7
13 −1Tackles17 +3
7 +0.2Interceptions3 −4.9
30 +9Clearances32 +9
0 −2.9Saves3 +0.3
15 +3Fouls13 +2
2 +0.9Offsides3 +1.5

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Kilmarnock

Watkins 54', 0.15 xGWatkins 45', 0.13 xGDeas 54', 0.05 xGCameron 90+4', 0.05 xGWright 22', 0.03 xGVassell 23', 0.03 xGArmstrong 47', 0.03 xGWatkins 35', 0.02 xGWatson 79', 0.34 xG, goalVassell 61', 0.21 xG, goalVassell 73', 0.05 xG, goalWatkins 68', 0.03 xG, goal0%0.00 xGSix-yard box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals85%0.96 xGCentral box: 8 shots, 0.96 xG, 4 goals4%0.04 xGWide in the box: 1 shot, 0.04 xG, 0 goals12%0.13 xGEdge of the box: 3 shots, 0.13 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

St. Mirren

Jamieson 89', 0.23 xGMandron 12', 0.06 xGFraser 43', 0.04 xGAyunga 90+2', 0.04 xGBoyd-Munce 30', 0.03 xGDunne 20', 0.21 xG, goalMandron 39', 0.13 xG, goal28%0.21 xGSix-yard box: 1 shot, 0.21 xG, 1 goal62%0.46 xGCentral box: 4 shots, 0.46 xG, 1 goal5%0.04 xGWide in the box: 1 shot, 0.04 xG, 0 goals4%0.03 xGEdge of the box: 1 shot, 0.03 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

KilmarnockSt. Mirren

1.04 10 shots, 4 goalsOpen play0.31 3 shots, 0 goals
0.05 1 shot, 0 goalsCounter-attacks0.00 0 shots, 0 goals
0.03 1 shot, 0 goalsSet pieces0.43 4 shots, 2 goals
0.79 1 shot, 1 goalPenalties0.00 0 shots, 0 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
23 min (24%) · Kilmarnock 0.03, St. Mirren 0.27 xG
Kilmarnock ahead
26 min (28%) · Kilmarnock 0.44, St. Mirren 0.28 xG
St. Mirren ahead
45 min (48%) · Kilmarnock 1.44, St. Mirren 0.20 xG

Line-ups

112417611223110239DennisWatsonWrightFindlayDeasArmstrongDonnellyPolworthKennedyWatkinsVassellGoalYellow cardGoalYellow cardYellow cardGoalGoalGoal90'83'82'82'82'Kilmarnock 4-4-2Derek McInnes12213188615310911HemmingFraserGogicDunneFlynnO'HaraBoyd-MunceTanserMcMenaminMandronKiltieGoalYellow cardGoal70'72'66'71'St. Mirren 3-4-3Stephen Robinson

Kilmarnock substitutes

  • 82' McKenzie for Kennedy
  • 82' Cameron for Vassell
  • 82' van Veen for Watkins
  • 83' Stewart for Armstrong
  • 90' Ndaba for Deas

St. Mirren substitutes

  • 66' Olusanya for McMenamin
  • 70' Jamieson for Flynn
  • 71' Ayunga for Kiltie
  • 72' Brown for Tanser

Players

Kilmarnock

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
DennisGK900.000.0000.0332
Watson RB9010.340.0700.2154
WrightCB900.030.0100.04513
FindlayCB900.000.0600.0659
DeasLB900.050.0100.0657
ArmstrongRM83110.820.2120.1560
Donnelly CM900.000.0420.0638
PolworthCM9010.000.0920.1992
Kennedy LM820.000.0500.0664
WatkinsST8210.330.000−0.0501
VassellST8220.290.0700.0410
McKenzieMF80.000.0000.0111
CameronFW80.050.0200.0200
van VeenFW80.000.2210.0120
StewartMF70.000.0200.0000
NdabaDF00.000.0000.0000

St. Mirren

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
HemmingGK900.000.0000.0431
FraserCB900.040.0000.0117
GogicCB900.000.0000.0248
DunneCB9010.210.0100.04411
FlynnRWB700.000.0000.0023
O'Hara CM900.000.010−0.0314
Boyd-MunceCM900.030.1210.0478
TanserLWB720.000.0100.0457
McMenaminRW6610.000.011−0.0402
MandronST9010.190.0210.0002
KiltieLW7110.000.2510.0431
OlusanyaFW240.000.1210.0711
JamiesonFW200.230.0100.0320
AyungaFW190.040.000−0.0100
BrownDF180.000.0200.0200

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Kilmarnock

Watson and Polworth: 4 passesWright and Vassell: 4 passesFindlay and Donnelly: 4 passesArmstrong and Watkins: 4 passesPolworth and Vassell: 4 passesDonnelly and Kennedy: 4 passesDonnelly and Vassell: 4 passesKennedy and Vassell: 4 passesDennis and Deas: 5 passesDeas and Vassell: 5 passesFindlay and Kennedy: 6 passesPolworth and Donnelly: 6 passesDennis and Findlay: 7 passesWatson and Wright: 7 passesArmstrong and Donnelly: 8 passesWright and Polworth: 9 passesWright and Donnelly: 9 passesFindlay and Polworth: 9 passesPolworth and Kennedy: 9 passesWatson and Armstrong: 11 passesArmstrong and Polworth: 11 passesFindlay and Deas: 12 passesDeas and Polworth: 12 passesDeas and Kennedy: 12 passesDennis: 12 completed passesWatson: 19 completed passesWright: 24 completed passesFindlay: 31 completed passesDeas: 27 completed passesArmstrong: 23 completed passesPolworth: 35 completed passesDonnelly: 23 completed passesKennedy: 23 completed passesWatkins: 3 completed passesVassell: 9 completed passes112417611312210239DennisWatsonWrightFindlayDeasArmstrongPolworthDonnellyKennedyWatkinsVassellStarters until 82' · lines join pairs with 4+ passes

St. Mirren

Hemming and Gogic: 3 passesHemming and Fraser: 3 passesGogic and Tanser: 3 passesGogic and Boyd-Munce: 3 passesFlynn and Kiltie: 3 passesMcMenamin and Kiltie: 3 passesDunne and Tanser: 4 passesDunne and Kiltie: 4 passesFraser and McMenamin: 4 passesGogic and O'Hara: 5 passesFraser and O'Hara: 5 passesTanser and Mandron: 5 passesTanser and Kiltie: 5 passesO'Hara and Boyd-Munce: 5 passesO'Hara and McMenamin: 5 passesBoyd-Munce and McMenamin: 5 passesBoyd-Munce and Mandron: 5 passesBoyd-Munce and Kiltie: 5 passesFlynn and O'Hara: 6 passesFlynn and Mandron: 6 passesFraser and Flynn: 7 passesFlynn and McMenamin: 7 passesTanser and Boyd-Munce: 7 passesMandron and Kiltie: 7 passesHemming: 5 completed passesGogic: 11 completed passesDunne: 9 completed passesFraser: 11 completed passesFlynn: 16 completed passesTanser: 13 completed passesO'Hara: 21 completed passesBoyd-Munce: 17 completed passesMcMenamin: 12 completed passesMandron: 12 completed passesKiltie: 15 completed passes11318228361510911HemmingGogicDunneFraserFlynnTanserO'HaraBoyd-MunceMcMenaminMandronKiltieStarters until 66' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Kilmarnock

FromToPasses
DonnellyWright7
DeasPolworth7
DeasKennedy7
WatsonArmstrong7
FindlayDeas7

St. Mirren

FromToPasses
O'HaraGogic5
O'HaraFraser5
GogicHemming5
FlynnFraser5
DunneBrown5

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Kilmarnock

5+0.86−1.310+2.04−0.43−4.211+3.98+1.89+3.512+5.47+1.16+1.32−1.77+2.84−1.34−1.25+1.52−0.63−0.47+2.63−0.13+1.21+0.32+0.42−0.51+0.13+2.70−0.80−0.21+0.67−5.1FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 29 matches

St. Mirren

2−3.26−0.518+4.09+1.08+2.84−3.58+0.93−1.910+2.35−2.15−0.95+0.24+1.15−1.17+0.33−1.21−2.11−1.411+7.83−0.50−2.73+1.00−1.03+1.71−1.31+0.11+0.70−0.80−0.30−1.0FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 29 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Kilmarnock

0.010.010.010.010.010.010.010.020.040.060.070.010.010.030.060.010.080.010.04−0.010.080.050.120.06−0.100.010.19LessMore

St. Mirren

0.020.010.020.030.010.010.03−0.010.010.01−0.01−0.050.01−0.010.03−0.010.010.040.040.05LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.29AttackKilmarnock1.19 → 1.24St. Mirren1.15 → 1.13Defence (lower is better)Kilmarnock1.21 → 1.20St. Mirren1.26 → 1.31

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Kilmarnock
Top six>99%>99%0
St. Mirren
Top six99%99%0

From the forecast before the match (16 March 2024): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

KilmarnockSt. Mirren
Expected goals1.390.98
Win46%26%
Expected Points1.661.06
Clean sheet38%25%

Kilmarnock 46%Draw 28%St. Mirren 26%

Most likely score 1–1, 13%. Both sides score 47%.

St. Mirren goalsKilmarnock goals0123456+0123456+9%4%1%6%2%9%9%4%1%4%4%2%1%1%10%12%13%

From the forecast as it stood on 16 March 2024: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowKilmarnock winDrawSt. Mirren win
Kilmarnock
Top six>99%>99%>99%99%
St. Mirren
Top six99%99%>99%>99%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Kilmarnock

  1. D2–22 MarDundee FC (A)xG 1.56–1.53
  2. L1–228 FebRangers (H)xG 1.36–0.73
  3. W2–024 FebAberdeen (H)xG 1.94–0.48
  4. D1–117 FebCeltic (A)xG 0.95–1.49
  5. W1–07 FebLivingston (H)xG 0.75–0.72
  6. D1–13 FebMotherwell (A)xG 0.24–1.14

St. Mirren

  1. W2–12 MarAberdeen (H)xG 2.01–0.98
  2. D1–127 FebRoss County (A)xG 0.67–1.02
  3. W2–024 FebSt. Johnstone (H)xG 0.94–0.70
  4. L0–117 FebLivingston (A)xG 2.07–0.97
  5. W2–07 FebDundee FC (H)xG 1.63–0.26
  6. W3–03 FebHibernian (A)xG 2.40–0.41

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

KilmarnockSt. Mirren
Position5th4th
Played2929
Won, drawn, lost10–⁠11–⁠812–⁠6–⁠11
Points41 (1.41 per game)42 (1.45 per game)
Expected Points per game1.401.27
Goals34–⁠3134–⁠32
xG per game1.22–⁠1.121.11–⁠1.32
Home: points, xG per game1.87, 1.30–⁠0.911.80, 1.12–⁠1.20
Away: points, xG per game0.93, 1.14–⁠1.361.07, 1.11–⁠1.45
ManagerDerek McInnes (67)Stephen Robinson (24)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.29AttackKilmarnock1.19, 4thSt. Mirren1.15, 7thDefence (lower is better)Kilmarnock1.21, 3rdSt. Mirren1.26, 5th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovDecJanFebMarKilmarnock attack: 1.19St. Mirren attack: 1.151.191.15St. MirrenKilmarnockDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovDecJanFebMarKilmarnock defence: 1.21St. Mirren defence: 1.261.261.21

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

KilmarnockSt. Mirren
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−20%−22%−28%−3%
Counter-attacks−1%+20%−19%−7%
Set pieces+25%−7%−26%−1%
Penalties−32%−32%+52%+1%
Headers+28%−21%−12%−8%
Left side−6%−30%−25%−8%
Centre−11%−13%−33%+7%
Right sideaverage−2%−17%−19%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Kilmarnock attacking

Kilmarnock createdSt. Mirren concededLeft side−6%−19%Centre−11%+7%Right sideaverage−8%Open play−20%−3%Counter-attacks−1%−7%Set pieces+25%−1%Headers+28%−8%

St. Mirren attacking

St. Mirren createdKilmarnock concededLeft side−25%−2%Centre−33%−13%Right side−17%−30%Open play−28%−22%Counter-attacks−19%+20%Set pieces−26%−7%Headers−12%−21%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

KilmarnockSt. Mirren

1.22xG1.11
1.12xG against1.32
46%Possession46%
12.9Shots10.7
12.2Shots against11.3
3.9Shots on target3.5
2.0Big chances1.9
22.2Touches in the opposition box19.0
333Passes343
64%Pass accuracy66%
6.4Corners4.7
50%Field tilt45%
33.2Final-third entries34.2
12.0Box entries9.4
14.7Passes per defensive action16.4

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Kilmarnock

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level471.091.04
Ahead201.261.23
Behind241.461.20

St. Mirren

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level400.911.37
Ahead231.501.31
Behind271.101.24

xG by period

Kilmarnock

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.130.134–4
16–300.210.146–3
31–450.190.244–10
46–600.250.076–5
61–750.160.235–4
76–900.290.319–5

St. Mirren

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.150.166–6
16–300.140.181–5
31–450.170.217–5
46–600.220.206–3
61–750.140.193–5
76–900.290.3811–8

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Kilmarnock

GKCBCBCBRWBCMCMCMLWBSTSTDennis 28O'Hara 1Mayo 28Wright 19Deas 13Findlay 27Armstro… 28ArmstrongMayo 1Watson 20Davies 2Watkins 1Polworth 12Ndaba 6Deas 3Lyons 20Donnelly 10Magennis 7Kennedy 17Ndaba 9Deas 1Watkins 24Kennedy 4Vassell 24Ndaba 2Polworth 13-5-2 in 12 of 29 starts

Formations: 3-5-2 (12), 4-4-2 (9), 4-1-4-1 (2), 3-4-1-2 (1), 4-5-1 (1), 4-2-3-1 (1), 3-4-3 (1), 3-1-4-2 (1), 5-3-2 (1)

St. Mirren

GKCBCBCBRWBCMCMLWBRWSTLWHemming 29Fraser 26Bolton 9Gogic 29Taylor 19Dunne 4Strain 11Bwomono 7Fraser 3Baccus 12Kwon 7Jamieson 3Boyd-Munce 16O'Hara 11Kiltie 6Tanser 24O'Hara 4Boyd-Munce 1McMenamin 12Tanser 5Jamieson 3Mandron 14Olusanya 8Ayunga 5Kiltie 23Ayunga 3Mandron 23-4-3 in 15 of 29 starts

Formations: 3-4-3 (15), 3-4-2-1 (7), 3-5-2 (6), 5-4-1 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
27 December 2023St. Mirren0–1KilmarnockxG 0.46–0.81
30 September 2023Kilmarnock1–1St. MirrenxG 0.73–0.79
22 April 2023St. Mirren0–2KilmarnockxG 0.51–2.32
2 January 2023Kilmarnock0–0St. MirrenxG 0.70–0.35
15 October 2022St. Mirren0–0KilmarnockxG 0.68–1.13
12 May 2021Kilmarnock3–3St. MirrenxG 1.33–1.21

9 league meetings since 2020/21: Kilmarnock won 3, St. Mirren won 1, and 5 were drawn. Goals 9–7 and xG 1.01–0.73 per game.

Key players

Kilmarnock

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Armstrong292,444590.260.28
Kennedy222,061330.170.17
Vassell241,994510.260.06
Watson201,884420.150.10

St. Mirren

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Mandron161,423620.320.11
Jamieson6587100.210.20
Olusanya8912410.340.07
Kiltie292,314430.220.12

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.