Digressive Celts

Matches › 2023/24

St. Mirren 0–1 Kilmarnock

Saturday 11 May 2024, 15:00 · The SMISA Stadium · Round 36 · Half-time 0–1 · Referee Euan Anderson · Attendance 7,645

Kilmarnock Vassell 37'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

St. MirrenKilmarnock
Goals01
xG0.851.44
Expected Points0.811.88

St. Mirren 17%Draw 31%Kilmarnock 52%

Most likely score 1–1, 20%. Final score 0–1, 18%.

Kilmarnock goalsSt. Mirren goals0123456+0123456+5%12%4%4%12%4%2%7%5%1%2%1%18%20%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

00.511.520153045607590HTScott on for Tanser, Jamieson on for Strain, and Baccus on for Boyd-Munce, 67'Taylor on for Bolton, 83'Cameron on for Vassell, 76'McKenzie on for Armstrong, 80'Murray on for Kennedy and Stewart on for Watkins, 90+1'Vassell 37'Kilmarnock 1.44St. Mirren 0.8500.511.520153045607590HTScott on for Tanser, Jamieson on for Strain, and Baccus on for Boyd-Munce, 67'Taylor on for Bolton, 83'Cameron on for Vassell, 76'McKenzie on for Armstrong, 80'Murray on for Kennedy and Stewart on for Watkins, 90+1'Vassell 37'1.440.85St. MirrenKilmarnock

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

St. MirrenKilmarnock

0.85 −0.23xG1.44 +0.16
0.50 −0.79xG on target1.46 +0.02
10 0Shots15 +2
3 −0.4Shots on target4 0.0
2 +0.1Big chances2 −0.1
24 +5Touches in the opposition box20 −2
62% +17Possession38% −8
436 +98Passes274 −57
71% +5Pass accuracy57% −7
62% +17Field tilt38% −11
49 +16Final-third entries27 −6
15 +5.9Box entries9 −2.9
11.7 −5Passes per defensive action16.6 +2
8 +3.3Corners5 −1.1
20 +5Tackles13 −1
2 −5.9Interceptions4 −2.9
17 −6Clearances31 +9
3 +0.2Saves4 +0.8
10 −1Fouls13 +1
1 −0.4Offsides0 −1.1

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

St. Mirren

Mandron 79', 0.21 xGGogic 59', 0.20 xGMandron 28', 0.11 xGOlusanya 64', 0.10 xGOlusanya 90', 0.09 xGTanser 59', 0.04 xGOlusanya 75', 0.04 xGOlusanya 12', 0.03 xGBoyd-Munce 52', 0.02 xGOlusanya 90', 0.01 xG25%0.21 xGSix-yard box: 1 shot, 0.21 xG, 0 goals68%0.57 xGCentral box: 7 shots, 0.57 xG, 0 goals5%0.04 xGWide in the box: 1 shot, 0.04 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGEdge of the box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals2%0.02 xGFurther out: 1 shot, 0.02 xG, 0 goals

Kilmarnock

Watkins 65', 0.14 xGVassell 27', 0.07 xGWatkins 67', 0.07 xGWatkins 71', 0.07 xGDeas 65', 0.06 xGVassell 27', 0.05 xGWatkins 29', 0.05 xGDonnelly 10', 0.03 xGVassell 32', 0.03 xGDeas 65', 0.03 xGNdaba 72', 0.03 xGKennedy 15', 0.02 xGNdaba 14', 0.01 xGVassell 65', 0.01 xGVassell 37', 0.78 xG, goal54%0.78 xGSix-yard box: 1 shot, 0.78 xG, 1 goal22%0.31 xGCentral box: 6 shots, 0.31 xG, 0 goals18%0.26 xGWide in the box: 3 shots, 0.26 xG, 0 goals6%0.08 xGEdge of the box: 4 shots, 0.08 xG, 0 goals1%0.01 xGFurther out: 1 shot, 0.01 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

St. MirrenKilmarnock

0.26 4 shots, 0 goalsOpen play0.44 8 shots, 0 goals
0.04 1 shot, 0 goalsCounter-attacks0.84 2 shots, 1 goal
0.54 5 shots, 0 goalsSet pieces0.16 5 shots, 0 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
37 min (41%) · St. Mirren 0.14, Kilmarnock 1.03 xG
Kilmarnock ahead
54 min (59%) · St. Mirren 0.71, Kilmarnock 0.41 xG

Line-ups

12132223615310920HemmingBoltonGogicFraserStrainO'HaraBoyd-MunceTanserMcMenaminMandronOlusanya83'67'67'67'St. Mirren 3-4-3Stephen Robinson15617311221210239DennisMayoDeasFindlayNdabaArmstrongDonnellyWatsonKennedyWatkinsVassellYellow cardYellow cardGoal80'90+1'90+1'76'Kilmarnock 4-4-2Derek McInnes

St. Mirren substitutes

  • 67' Baccus for Boyd-Munce
  • 67' Scott for Tanser
  • 67' Jamieson for Strain
  • 83' Taylor for Bolton

Kilmarnock substitutes

  • 76' Cameron for Vassell
  • 80' McKenzie for Armstrong
  • 90+1' Murray for Kennedy
  • 90+1' Stewart for Watkins

Players

St. Mirren

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
HemmingGK900.000.0000.0321
BoltonCB830.000.0200.1556
GogicCB900.200.0100.11712
FraserCB900.000.0800.1593
StrainRWB670.000.1310.2272
O'HaraCM900.000.0700.1060
Boyd-MunceCM670.020.0400.0253
TanserLWB670.040.0100.0255
McMenaminRW900.000.0620.0851
MandronST900.320.111−0.0114
OlusanyaLW900.270.030−0.0524
BaccusMF230.000.1820.0322
ScottFW230.000.0100.0010
JamiesonFW230.000.0500.0421
TaylorDF70.000.0000.0110

Kilmarnock

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
Dennis GK900.000.0000.0660
MayoRB900.000.0600.0545
DeasCB900.090.0100.05310
FindlayCB900.000.0300.0227
NdabaLB900.040.0100.0438
Armstrong RM800.000.1440.1464
DonnellyCM900.030.0100.0133
WatsonCM900.000.020−0.0106
KennedyLM900.020.1320.0931
WatkinsST9010.330.3410.3831
VassellST7610.930.0310.2221
CameronFW140.000.0000.0001
McKenzieMF100.000.0000.0001
MurrayMF00.000.0000.0002
StewartMF00.000.0000.0000

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

St. Mirren

Gogic and Strain: 4 passesBolton and O'Hara: 4 passesFraser and O'Hara: 4 passesO'Hara and Mandron: 4 passesMandron and Olusanya: 4 passesHemming and Gogic: 5 passesBolton and Mandron: 5 passesFraser and Mandron: 5 passesStrain and Mandron: 5 passesO'Hara and Olusanya: 5 passesGogic and O'Hara: 6 passesBolton and Fraser: 6 passesTanser and Olusanya: 6 passesBoyd-Munce and Mandron: 6 passesO'Hara and Boyd-Munce: 7 passesFraser and Tanser: 9 passesFraser and Boyd-Munce: 9 passesO'Hara and McMenamin: 9 passesBolton and McMenamin: 10 passesStrain and O'Hara: 12 passesStrain and McMenamin: 12 passesGogic and Boyd-Munce: 15 passesBolton and Strain: 19 passesGogic and Fraser: 21 passesGogic and Bolton: 25 passesHemming: 10 completed passesGogic: 45 completed passesBolton: 42 completed passesFraser: 33 completed passesStrain: 32 completed passesTanser: 14 completed passesO'Hara: 27 completed passesBoyd-Munce: 25 completed passesMcMenamin: 11 completed passesMandron: 15 completed passesOlusanya: 9 completed passes11322223361510920HemmingGogicBoltonFraserStrainTanserO'HaraBoyd-MunceMcMenaminMandronOlusanyaStarters until 67' · lines join pairs with 4+ passes

Kilmarnock

Dennis and Deas: 4 passesDennis and Donnelly: 4 passesMayo and Watson: 4 passesFindlay and Donnelly: 4 passesFindlay and Vassell: 4 passesNdaba and Vassell: 4 passesWatson and Donnelly: 4 passesDonnelly and Vassell: 4 passesKennedy and Vassell: 4 passesDeas and Donnelly: 5 passesDeas and Kennedy: 5 passesNdaba and Donnelly: 5 passesArmstrong and Watson: 5 passesArmstrong and Watkins: 5 passesFindlay and Ndaba: 6 passesMayo and Armstrong: 7 passesWatkins and Vassell: 7 passesMayo and Donnelly: 9 passesArmstrong and Vassell: 14 passesDennis: 13 completed passesMayo: 16 completed passesDeas: 15 completed passesFindlay: 11 completed passesNdaba: 13 completed passesArmstrong: 19 completed passesWatson: 12 completed passesDonnelly: 21 completed passesKennedy: 11 completed passesWatkins: 10 completed passesVassell: 19 completed passes15617311122210239DennisMayoDeasFindlayNdabaArmstrongWatsonDonnellyKennedyWatkinsVassellStarters until 76' · lines join pairs with 4+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

St. Mirren

FromToPasses
GogicFraser18
BoltonGogic16
BoltonStrain10
StrainBolton9
StrainMcMenamin9

Kilmarnock

FromToPasses
ArmstrongVassell9
VassellArmstrong5
DeasDonnelly5
DonnellyMayo5
VassellWatkins5

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

St. Mirren

3−2.23−3.513−1.27−0.69+3.74−0.68+0.513+6.02−3.93−1.64+1.110+4.45−2.11−3.34+1.10−2.34+0.42−1.71−1.42+0.11+0.24+2.71−1.310.00−0.30−0.72+1.70−0.92−5.62−5.2FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 35 matches

Kilmarnock

4−0.34−3.218+5.47−1.24−0.33−3.75−2.17+0.73−2.97+0.111+4.97+2.25+1.25+0.64−1.02−3.24+0.42−0.71−2.31−3.43+0.11−0.81+0.20−1.65+2.53+2.21+0.70−0.80−0.20−0.5FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 35 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

St. Mirren

0.010.010.040.020.020.030.020.060.040.030.040.040.060.040.080.040.02−0.010.050.09−0.03−0.05−0.020.27LessMore

Kilmarnock

0.010.020.020.010.020.010.010.040.010.030.050.040.010.030.010.060.010.070.100.180.31LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.30AttackSt. Mirren1.08 → 1.07Kilmarnock1.22 → 1.24Defence (lower is better)St. Mirren1.37 → 1.39Kilmarnock1.24 → 1.22

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

St. MirrenKilmarnock
Expected goals1.241.16
Win37%34%
Expected Points1.411.30
Clean sheet31%29%

St. Mirren 37%Draw 29%Kilmarnock 34%

Most likely score 1–1, 14%. Both sides score 49%.

Kilmarnock goalsSt. Mirren goals0123456+0123456+10%6%2%8%3%7%8%5%2%3%3%2%1%10%11%14%

From the forecast as it stood on 11 May 2024: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

Form

St. Mirren

  1. W3–14 MayDundee FC (A)xG 1.43–0.79
  2. L1–228 AprRangers (H)xG 0.85–1.74
  3. L0–313 AprCeltic (A)xG 0.18–3.33
  4. L1–26 AprHearts (H)xG 0.89–2.37
  5. D1–130 MarMotherwell (A)xG 1.32–1.84
  6. L2–516 MarKilmarnock (A)xG 0.74–1.91

Kilmarnock

  1. L1–45 MayRangers (A)xG 0.39–4.90
  2. D0–027 AprHearts (H)xG 0.89–1.95
  3. W2–013 AprSt. Johnstone (A)xG 3.51–1.22
  4. W1–06 AprRoss County (H)xG 0.98–0.47
  5. D1–130 MarHearts (A)xG 1.55–1.61
  6. W5–216 MarSt. Mirren (H)xG 1.91–0.74

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

St. MirrenKilmarnock
Position5th4th
Played3535
Won, drawn, lost13–⁠7–⁠1513–⁠13–⁠9
Points46 (1.31 per game)52 (1.49 per game)
Expected Points per game1.181.41
Goals42–⁠4644–⁠38
xG per game1.08–⁠1.441.28–⁠1.24
Home: points, xG per game1.59, 1.09–⁠1.301.94, 1.30–⁠0.93
Away: points, xG per game1.06, 1.07–⁠1.571.00, 1.26–⁠1.57
ManagerStephen Robinson (30)Derek McInnes (73)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.30AttackSt. Mirren1.08, 8thKilmarnock1.22, 6thDefence (lower is better)St. Mirren1.37, 8thKilmarnock1.24, 4th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovDecJanFebMarAprMaySt. Mirren attack: 1.08Kilmarnock attack: 1.221.221.08KilmarnockSt. MirrenDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovDecJanFebMarAprMaySt. Mirren defence: 1.37Kilmarnock defence: 1.241.371.24

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

St. MirrenKilmarnock
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−33%+1%−18%−12%
Counter-attacks−22%+21%−6%−3%
Set pieces−20%−1%+26%+1%
Penalties+26%+12%−30%−30%
Headers−17%+9%+26%−17%
Left side−26%−12%−6%−19%
Centre−34%+14%−5%−7%
Right side−21%−7%−5%+2%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

St. Mirren attacking

St. Mirren createdKilmarnock concededLeft side−26%+2%Centre−34%−7%Right side−21%−19%Open play−33%−12%Counter-attacks−22%−3%Set pieces−20%+1%Headers−17%−17%

Kilmarnock attacking

Kilmarnock createdSt. Mirren concededLeft side−6%−7%Centre−5%+14%Right side−5%−12%Open play−18%+1%Counter-attacks−6%+21%Set pieces+26%−1%Headers+26%+9%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

St. MirrenKilmarnock

1.08xG1.28
1.44xG against1.24
45%Possession46%
10.5Shots12.9
11.9Shots against12.9
3.4Shots on target4.0
1.9Big chances2.1
18.9Touches in the opposition box22.3
338Passes331
65%Pass accuracy64%
4.7Corners6.1
45%Field tilt49%
33.2Final-third entries32.7
9.1Box entries11.9
16.6Passes per defensive action14.8

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

St. Mirren

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level400.931.33
Ahead241.371.45
Behind261.051.57

Kilmarnock

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level461.071.10
Ahead201.431.49
Behind231.551.30

xG by period

St. Mirren

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.150.146–6
16–300.150.163–5
31–450.170.2310–7
46–600.190.227–5
61–750.150.265–12
76–900.260.4311–11

Kilmarnock

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.130.155–5
16–300.190.187–4
31–450.220.274–12
46–600.230.086–5
61–750.200.2611–6
76–900.320.3111–6

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

St. Mirren

GKCBCBCBRWBCMCMLWBRWSTLWHemming 35Fraser 32Bolton 12Gogic 35Taylor 21Dunne 5Strain 14Bwomono 9Flynn 4O'Hara 15Baccus 13Kwon 8Boyd-Munce 19Kiltie 6Tanser 27O'Hara 4Boyd-Munce 4McMenamin 13Tanser 8O'Hara 4Mandron 19Olusanya 9Ayunga 5Kiltie 28Ayunga 3Mandron 23-4-3 in 17 of 35 starts

Formations: 3-4-3 (17), 3-4-2-1 (10), 3-5-2 (7), 5-4-1 (1)

Kilmarnock

GKRBCBCBLBRMCMCMLMSTSTDennis 34O'Hara 1Mayo 21Wright 10Armstrong 2Wright 15Deas 12Mayo 11Findlay 32Ndaba 9Deas 8Watson 7Armstrong 32Mayo 2Watson 1Lyons 15Watson 13Watkins 1Polworth 17Donnelly 12Magennis 5Kennedy 23Ndaba 8Deas 2Watkins 30Kennedy 4Vassell 30Polworth 2Donnelly 24-4-2 in 13 of 35 starts

Formations: 4-4-2 (13), 3-5-2 (13), 4-1-4-1 (2), 4-4-1-1 (1), 3-4-1-2 (1), 4-5-1 (1), 4-2-3-1 (1), 3-4-3 (1), 3-1-4-2 (1), 5-3-2 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
16 March 2024Kilmarnock5–2St. MirrenxG 1.91–0.74
27 December 2023St. Mirren0–1KilmarnockxG 0.46–0.81
30 September 2023Kilmarnock1–1St. MirrenxG 0.73–0.79
22 April 2023St. Mirren0–2KilmarnockxG 0.51–2.32
2 January 2023Kilmarnock0–0St. MirrenxG 0.70–0.35
15 October 2022St. Mirren0–0KilmarnockxG 0.68–1.13

10 league meetings since 2020/21: St. Mirren won 1, Kilmarnock won 4, and 5 were drawn. Goals 9–14 and xG 0.73–1.10 per game.

Key players

St. Mirren

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Jamieson6661100.230.18
Olusanya121,256610.340.07
Mandron211,833830.290.12
Kiltie342,665450.190.12

Kilmarnock

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Armstrong352,8806100.250.29
Kennedy282,593330.170.16
Vassell302,471830.250.06
Watkins312,553910.250.04

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.