Digressive Celts

Matches › 2025/26

St. Mirren 0–1 Celtic

Saturday 22 November 2025, 20:00 · The SMISA Stadium · Round 13 · Half-time 0–0 · Referee Kevin Clancy · Attendance 6,840

Celtic McGregor 90+5'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

St. MirrenCeltic
Goals01
xG1.530.88
Expected Points1.980.73

St. Mirren 56%Draw 30%Celtic 14%

Most likely score 1–1, 23%. Final score 0–1, 1%.

Celtic goalsSt. Mirren goals0123456+0123456+9%2%13%12%6%1%3%3%1%22%23%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

00.511.520153045607590HTAyunga on for Nlundulu, 67'Taylor on for McMenamin and King on for Richardson, 82'Donnelly on for Baccus, 90+3'McCowan on for Kenny, 46'Yang on for Tounekti, 67'Nygren on for Ralston and Murray on for Tierney, 72'Donovan on for Engels, 85'McGregor 90+5'St. Mirren 1.53Celtic 0.8800.511.520153045607590HTAyunga on for Nlundulu, 67'Taylor on for McMenamin and King on for Richardson, 82'Donnelly on for Baccus, 90+3'McCowan on for Kenny, 46'Yang on for Tounekti, 67'Nygren on for Ralston and Murray on for Tierney, 72'Donovan on for Engels, 85'McGregor 90+5'1.530.88St. MirrenCeltic

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

St. MirrenCeltic

1.53 +0.56xG0.88 −1.37
0.12 −0.84xG on target0.19 −2.12
13 +2Shots16 −2
2 −1.5Shots on target2 −3.9
1 −0.6Big chances0 −4.1
21 −1Touches in the opposition box29 −8
27% −17Possession73% +2
249 −81Passes684 +26
67% −6Pass accuracy88% 0
26% −22Field tilt74% −5
25 −11Final-third entries54 −19
7 −4Box entries18 −4
27.1 +8.8Passes per defensive action13.4 +4.8
2 −4.0Corners4 −4.0
14 +2Tackles8 −6
10 +3.1Interceptions5 −2.4
21 −10Clearances19 −9
1 −2.5Saves2 +0.2
10 −2Fouls8 −5
2 −0.3Offsides2 +0.5

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

St. Mirren

McMenamin 7', 0.97 xGMandron 43', 0.09 xGRichardson 53', 0.09 xGFreckleton 43', 0.07 xGMandron 43', 0.06 xGBaccus 84', 0.06 xGMcMenamin 29', 0.03 xGJohn 83', 0.03 xGBaccus 84', 0.03 xGKing 84', 0.03 xGMandron 88', 0.03 xGMandron 10', 0.02 xGBaccus 64', 0.02 xG63%0.97 xGSix-yard box: 1 shot, 0.97 xG, 0 goals16%0.24 xGCentral box: 4 shots, 0.24 xG, 0 goals10%0.15 xGWide in the box: 3 shots, 0.15 xG, 0 goals11%0.17 xGEdge of the box: 5 shots, 0.17 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Celtic

Murray 83', 0.10 xGMcCowan 63', 0.08 xGEngels 78', 0.08 xGYang 73', 0.07 xGYang 74', 0.07 xGMaeda 79', 0.07 xGKenny 32', 0.06 xGMcCowan 46', 0.06 xGNygren 81', 0.06 xGKenny 41', 0.05 xGTierney 52', 0.04 xGTounekti 15', 0.03 xGMcGregor 63', 0.03 xGYang 90+4', 0.02 xGHatate 75', 0.01 xGMcGregor 90+5', 0.04 xG, goal0%0.00 xGSix-yard box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals37%0.33 xGCentral box: 5 shots, 0.33 xG, 0 goals26%0.23 xGWide in the box: 4 shots, 0.23 xG, 0 goals36%0.32 xGEdge of the box: 6 shots, 0.32 xG, 1 goal1%0.01 xGFurther out: 1 shot, 0.01 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

St. MirrenCeltic

1.17 7 shots, 0 goalsOpen play0.66 12 shots, 1 goal
0.09 1 shot, 0 goalsCounter-attacks0.00 0 shots, 0 goals
0.27 5 shots, 0 goalsSet pieces0.21 4 shots, 0 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
95 min (99%) · St. Mirren 1.53, Celtic 0.88 xG
Celtic ahead
1 min (1%) · St. Mirren 0.00, Celtic 0.00 xG

Line-ups

1221321288102524914GeorgeFraserGogicFreckletonRichardsonPhillipsMcMenaminBaccusJohnMandronNlunduluYellow cardYellow card82'82'90+3'67'St. Mirren 3-5-2Stephen Robinson1566563274142232438SchmeichelRalstonTrustyScalesTierneyEngelsHatateMcGregorTounektiKennyMaedaGoalYellow card72'72'85'67'46'Celtic 4-3-3Martin O'Neill

St. Mirren substitutes

  • 67' Ayunga for Nlundulu
  • 82' King for Richardson
  • 82' Taylor for McMenamin
  • 90+3' Donnelly for Baccus

Celtic substitutes

  • 46' McCowan for Kenny
  • 67' Yang for Tounekti
  • 72' Murray for Tierney
  • 72' Nygren for Ralston
  • 85' Donovan for Engels · 1 assist

Players

St. Mirren

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
GeorgeGK900.000.0100.0650
Fraser CB900.000.0000.0434
Gogic CB900.000.0200.06515
FreckletonCB900.070.0200.0658
RichardsonRWB820.090.0000.0222
PhillipsCM900.000.0420.0518
McMenaminCM821.000.021−0.0422
BaccusCM900.110.0400.0744
JohnLWB900.030.4930.2254
MandronST900.200.0310.0354
NlunduluST670.000.0210.0212
AyungaFW230.000.0000.0101
KingDF80.030.0000.0000
TaylorMF80.000.0000.0001
DonnellyMF00.000.0000.0000

Celtic

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
SchmeichelGK900.000.0000.0230
RalstonRB720.000.0500.0893
TrustyCB900.000.0110.0754
ScalesCB900.000.0510.1546
TierneyLB720.040.0510.1268
EngelsCM850.080.182−0.0234
HatateCM900.010.2150.2051
McGregorCM9010.080.0200.0317
Tounekti RW670.030.0910.07110
KennyST460.110.0000.0001
MaedaLW900.070.0400.0531
McCowanMF440.140.0400.0550
YangFW230.150.0500.0750
MurrayDF180.100.0000.0102
NygrenFW180.060.0310.0010
DonovanDF510.000.0110.0210

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

St. Mirren

George and Nlundulu: 4 passesGogic and Freckleton: 4 passesGogic and Phillips: 4 passesGogic and McMenamin: 4 passesFreckleton and McMenamin: 4 passesFraser and Baccus: 4 passesJohn and Mandron: 4 passesBaccus and Phillips: 4 passesPhillips and McMenamin: 4 passesGeorge and Mandron: 5 passesGogic and Fraser: 5 passesFraser and Richardson: 5 passesRichardson and Mandron: 5 passesJohn and McMenamin: 5 passesBaccus and Mandron: 5 passesMcMenamin and Mandron: 5 passesFreckleton and Baccus: 6 passesRichardson and McMenamin: 6 passesFreckleton and John: 7 passesFraser and Phillips: 9 passesFraser and McMenamin: 9 passesGeorge: 14 completed passesGogic: 16 completed passesFreckleton: 16 completed passesFraser: 25 completed passesRichardson: 8 completed passesJohn: 11 completed passesBaccus: 16 completed passesPhillips: 18 completed passesMcMenamin: 20 completed passesMandron: 10 completed passesNlundulu: 4 completed passes1132122224258810914GeorgeGogicFreckletonFraserRichardsonJohnBaccusPhillipsMcMenaminMandronNlunduluStarters until 67' · lines join pairs with 4+ passes

Celtic

Schmeichel and McGregor: 4 passesTrusty and McGregor: 4 passesTierney and McGregor: 4 passesEngels and Tounekti: 4 passesHatate and McGregor: 4 passesHatate and Kenny: 4 passesMcGregor and Tounekti: 4 passesRalston and Kenny: 5 passesScales and Hatate: 5 passesTrusty and Tierney: 5 passesScales and Tounekti: 6 passesHatate and Tounekti: 6 passesRalston and Hatate: 7 passesEngels and McGregor: 8 passesSchmeichel and Ralston: 11 passesTierney and Hatate: 11 passesSchmeichel and Trusty: 14 passesScales and McGregor: 14 passesRalston and Engels: 16 passesRalston and McGregor: 17 passesSchmeichel and Scales: 21 passesRalston and Maeda: 21 passesScales and Trusty: 22 passesScales and Tierney: 26 passesTierney and Tounekti: 27 passesRalston and Trusty: 36 passesSchmeichel: 36 completed passesRalston: 62 completed passesScales: 51 completed passesTrusty: 48 completed passesTierney: 39 completed passesEngels: 20 completed passesHatate: 22 completed passesMcGregor: 33 completed passesMaeda: 15 completed passesKenny: 7 completed passesTounekti: 26 completed passes1565663274142382423SchmeichelRalstonScalesTrustyTierneyEngelsHatateMcGregorMaedaKennyTounektiStarters until 46' · lines join pairs with 4+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

St. Mirren

FromToPasses
GeorgeMandron7
FraserMcMenamin6
BaccusMandron6
PhillipsFraser6
McMenaminRichardson5

Celtic

FromToPasses
TrustyRalston28
TierneyTounekti24
RalstonTrusty22
TierneyScales20
SchmeichelScales19

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

St. Mirren

6+1.88+0.117−0.74−2.73−1.53−3.312+4.313+8.08+1.21−4.07+1.85+1.01−1.85+1.52−1.93−1.19+6.54+0.91−1.07+5.13+0.50−1.61−0.70−1.84+1.20−0.90−0.51+0.10−0.10−0.3FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 11 matches

Celtic

1−1.72−2.211−1.69+3.55+1.13−2.57+1.55−1.19+1.61−3.55+1.11−2.012+6.74−2.51−3.52−1.42−1.54+0.82−3.60−1.70−2.31−0.73−0.74+1.10−1.10−0.61+0.40−0.31−0.22−5.9FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 11 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

St. Mirren

0.010.010.010.010.030.020.010.010.010.020.010.050.030.010.020.080.01−0.030.020.030.010.020.16LessMore

Celtic

0.010.010.010.010.010.010.010.040.030.030.040.020.030.040.090.020.040.050.030.060.01−0.010.030.030.140.14LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.36AttackSt. Mirren1.13 → 1.14Celtic2.31 → 2.23Defence (lower is better)St. Mirren1.48 → 1.45Celtic0.80 → 0.82

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
St. Mirren
Top six16%14%−2
11th12%14%+2
Bottom7%8%+1
Celtic
Title87%89%+2
Hearts
Title10%9%−1
Dundee FC
Top six2%2%0
11th27%27%0
Bottom41%40%−1

From the forecast before the match (22 November 2025): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

St. MirrenCeltic
Expected goals0.782.24
Win11%70%
Expected Points0.522.29
Clean sheet11%46%

St. Mirren 11%Draw 19%Celtic 70%

Most likely score 0–2, 12%. Both sides score 49%.

Celtic goalsSt. Mirren goals0123456+0123456+5%5%2%1%3%7%4%2%1%1%3%4%3%2%1%10%12%9%9%10%

From the forecast as it stood on 22 November 2025: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowSt. Mirren winDrawCeltic win
St. Mirren
Top six16%26%19%14%
11th12%7%11%14%
Bottom7%3%6%8%
Celtic
Title87%80%82%89%
Hearts
Title10%15%14%9%
Dundee FC
Top six2%1%1%2%
11th27%28%26%27%
Bottom41%45%42%40%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

St. Mirren

  1. L0–38 NovHibernian (H)xG 0.78–1.62
  2. D2–229 OctHearts (H)xG 1.01–1.57
  3. L1–325 OctDundee United (A)xG 2.28–2.21
  4. L0–118 OctAberdeen (H)xG 0.48–2.05
  5. L0–24 OctKilmarnock (A)xG 0.43–2.15
  6. W1–027 SepDundee FC (H)xG 0.74–0.62

Celtic

  1. W4–09 NovKilmarnock (H)xG 2.85–0.38
  2. W4–029 OctFalkirk (H)xG 4.29–0.47
  3. L1–326 OctHearts (A)xG 0.88–1.57
  4. L0–219 OctDundee FC (A)xG 2.70–1.30
  5. W3–25 OctMotherwell (H)xG 2.62–1.39
  6. D0–027 SepHibernian (H)xG 2.80–0.70

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

St. MirrenCeltic
Position9th2nd
Played1111
Won, drawn, lost2–⁠4–⁠57–⁠2–⁠2
Points10 (0.91 per game)23 (2.09 per game)
Expected Points per game0.982.18
Goals8–⁠1520–⁠8
xG per game0.97–⁠1.532.25–⁠0.79
Home: points, xG per game1.00, 0.89–⁠1.322.67, 2.83–⁠0.57
Away: points, xG per game0.80, 1.07–⁠1.781.40, 1.55–⁠1.05
ManagerStephen Robinson (82)Martin O'Neill (2)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.36AttackSt. Mirren1.13, 10thCeltic2.31, 1stDefence (lower is better)St. Mirren1.48, 8thCeltic0.80, 1st

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.02.5SepOctNovSt. Mirren attack: 1.13Celtic attack: 2.312.311.13CelticSt. MirrenDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.02.5SepOctNovSt. Mirren defence: 1.48Celtic defence: 0.801.480.80

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

St. MirrenCeltic
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−30%+7%+127%−70%
Counter-attacks−56%+128%−9%−34%
Set pieces+15%−10%−22%−10%
Penalties−100%−49%+53%+2%
Headers+23%+13%+63%−16%
Left side−28%+20%+72%−68%
Centre−15%+29%+77%−39%
Right side−27%−7%+34%−49%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

St. Mirren attacking

St. Mirren createdCeltic concededLeft side−28%−49%Centre−15%−39%Right side−27%−68%Open play−30%−70%Counter-attacks−56%−34%Set pieces+15%−10%Headers+23%−16%

Celtic attacking

Celtic createdSt. Mirren concededLeft side+72%−7%Centre+77%+29%Right side+34%+20%Open play+127%+7%Counter-attacks−9%+128%Set pieces−22%−10%Headers+63%+13%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

St. MirrenCeltic

0.97xG2.25
1.53xG against0.79
44%Possession71%
11.0Shots17.5
13.2Shots against6.7
3.5Shots on target5.9
1.6Big chances4.1
22.4Touches in the opposition box37.0
330Passes658
73%Pass accuracy88%
6.0Corners8.0
48%Field tilt80%
35.6Final-third entries73.2
11.2Box entries22.5
18.3Passes per defensive action8.6

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

St. Mirren

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level621.041.40
Ahead160.961.85
Behind120.641.79

Celtic

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level521.960.63
Ahead262.620.82
Behind122.741.42

xG by period

St. Mirren

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.070.150–0
16–300.200.202–2
31–450.180.252–3
46–600.140.161–1
61–750.160.402–2
76–900.230.371–7

Celtic

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.190.052–1
16–300.420.033–1
31–450.410.211–2
46–600.300.214–3
61–750.330.084–0
76–900.600.206–1

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

St. Mirren

GKCBCBCBRWBCMCMCMLWBSTSTGeorge 11Fraser 9King 5Gogic 9Freckleton 10Richardson 9McMena… 2McMenaminPhillips 11Baccus 8Donnelly 3Taylor 1O'Hara 8Idowu 2John 11Ayunga 6Nlundulu 4Idowu 2Mandron 103-5-2 in 8 of 11 starts

Formations: 3-5-2 (8), 5-3-2 (3)

Celtic

GKRBCBCBLBCMCMCMRWSTLWSchmeichel 11Ralston 6Donovan 2Johnston 2Carter-Vickers 7Trusty 2Murray 2Scales 11Saracchi 5Tierney 5Inamura 1Nygren 5Engels 5McCowan 4McGregor 10Bernardo 1Hatate 8Maeda 3Nygren 3Forrest 2Kenny 3Iheanacho 3Maeda 2Tounekti 6Maeda 2Balikwisha 24-3-3 in every start

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
3 August 2025Celtic1–0St. MirrenxG 1.41–0.23
17 May 2025Celtic1–1St. MirrenxG 2.55–0.20
1 March 2025St. Mirren2–5CelticxG 1.63–3.37
5 January 2025Celtic3–0St. MirrenxG 2.60–1.08
25 August 2024St. Mirren0–3CelticxG 0.15–2.46
18 May 2024Celtic3–2St. MirrenxG 2.30–1.36

19 league meetings since 2020/21: St. Mirren won 2, Celtic won 14, and 3 were drawn. Goals 14–50 and xG 0.66–2.51 per game.

Key players

St. Mirren

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Mandron10823120.190.10
Ayunga6550100.250.04
John11971120.020.21
O'Hara8669000.080.13

Celtic

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Nygren8719520.590.34
Maeda7650320.390.16
Tounekti7499100.250.27
Engels5476110.230.20

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.