Digressive Celts

Matches › 2024/25

Dundee United 3–2 Hibernian

Saturday 19 October 2024, 15:00 · CalForth Construction Arena at Tannadice Park · Round 8 · Half-time 1–1 · Referee Chris Graham · Attendance 10,870

Dundee United Dalby 20', Stephenson 90+3', Ubochioma 90+9'

Hibernian O'Hora 43', Gayle 72' · Newell sent off 85'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

Dundee UnitedHibernian
Goals32
xG1.790.71
Expected Points2.320.45

Dundee United 70%Draw 23%Hibernian 7%

Most likely score 2–0, 19%. Final score 3–2, 2%.

Hibernian goalsDundee United goals0123456+0123456+5%6%7%6%2%1%18%16%19%16%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

00.511.520153045607590HTNewell (Hibernian), second yellow card 85'Trapanovski on for Thomson, 62'van der Sande on for Adegboyega, 78'Ubochioma on for Middleton, 87'Boyle on for Miller, 46'Iredale on for Cadden, 49'Gayle on for Molotnikov, 64'Levitt on for Kukharevych, 88'Campbell on for Hoilett, 89'Dalby 20'Stephenson 90+3'Ubochioma 90+9'O'Hora 43'Gayle 72'Dundee United 1.79Hibernian 0.7100.511.520153045607590HTNewell (Hibernian), second yellow card 85'Trapanovski on for Thomson, 62'van der Sande on for Adegboyega, 78'Ubochioma on for Middleton, 87'Boyle on for Miller, 46'Iredale on for Cadden, 49'Gayle on for Molotnikov, 64'Levitt on for Kukharevych, 88'Campbell on for Hoilett, 89'Dalby 20'Stephenson 90+3'Ubochioma 90+9'O'Hora 43'Gayle 72'1.790.71Dundee UnitedHibernian

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

Dundee UnitedHibernian

1.79 +0.47xG0.71 −0.45
2.56 +1.13xG on target1.51 +0.46
8 −3Shots8 −5
4 0.0Shots on target4 +0.7
3 +1.3Big chances2 +0.6
21 −3Touches in the opposition box17 −5
46% +3Possession54% +8
309 −6Passes365 +44
69% +2Pass accuracy75% +4
39% −6Field tilt61% +10
42 +11Final-third entries36 +3
7 −2.7Box entries9 +0.7
12.1 −4Passes per defensive action12.6 −2
5 +1.3Corners5 −1.4
27 +7Tackles11 −3
5 −2.7Interceptions4 −3.6
28 −2Clearances27 +2
2 −0.3Saves1 −1.6
14 +4Fouls14 +2
1 +0.3Offsides0 −1.3

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Dundee United

van der Sande 80', 0.14 xGHolt 67', 0.07 xGAdegboyega 74', 0.04 xGGallagher 79', 0.04 xGMiddleton 67', 0.03 xGDalby 20', 0.97 xG, goalStephenson 90+3', 0.39 xG, goalUbochioma 90+9', 0.10 xG, goal88%1.57 xGSix-yard box: 4 shots, 1.57 xG, 2 goals4%0.08 xGCentral box: 2 shots, 0.08 xG, 0 goals2%0.03 xGWide in the box: 1 shot, 0.03 xG, 0 goals6%0.10 xGEdge of the box: 1 shot, 0.10 xG, 1 goal0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Hibernian

Hoilett 45+5', 0.10 xGMolotnikov 10', 0.07 xGO'Hora 25', 0.07 xGMolotnikov 45+4', 0.02 xGKwon 54', 0.02 xGNewell 33', 0.01 xGO'Hora 43', 0.24 xG, goalGayle 72', 0.17 xG, goal24%0.17 xGSix-yard box: 1 shot, 0.17 xG, 1 goal69%0.48 xGCentral box: 4 shots, 0.48 xG, 1 goal3%0.02 xGWide in the box: 1 shot, 0.02 xG, 0 goals1%0.01 xGEdge of the box: 1 shot, 0.01 xG, 0 goals3%0.02 xGFurther out: 1 shot, 0.02 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

Dundee UnitedHibernian

0.66 4 shots, 2 goalsOpen play0.23 4 shots, 1 goal
0.97 1 shot, 1 goalCounter-attacks0.00 0 shots, 0 goals
0.15 3 shots, 0 goalsSet pieces0.48 4 shots, 1 goal

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
60 min (57%) · Dundee United 1.17, Hibernian 0.38 xG
Dundee United ahead
24 min (23%) · Dundee United 0.00, Hibernian 0.33 xG
Hibernian ahead
21 min (20%) · Dundee United 0.61, Hibernian 0.00 xG

Line-ups

1311641751011291915WaltonGallagherAdegboyegaHoltStephensonSeveljBabunskiFerryThomsonDalbyMiddletonGoalYellow cardGoal78'62'87'Dundee United 3-4-3Jim Goodwin124521181112352399BursikMillerEkpitetaO'HoraObitaKwonNewellCaddenMolotnikovHoilettKukharevychYellow cardGoalYellow cardYellow cardSent off, second yellow46'49'64'89'88'Hibernian 4-2-3-1David Gray

Dundee United substitutes

  • 62' Trapanovski for Thomson
  • 78' van der Sande for Adegboyega
  • 87' Ubochioma for Middleton · yellow card 87', goal 90+9'

Hibernian substitutes

  • 46' Boyle for Miller
  • 49' Iredale for Cadden
  • 64' Gayle for Molotnikov · goal 72'
  • 88' Levitt for Kukharevych
  • 89' Campbell for Hoilett

Players

Dundee United

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
WaltonGK900.000.0300.1360
GallagherCB900.040.0100.0566
AdegboyegaCB780.040.0100.0647
HoltCB900.070.040−0.0319
StephensonRWB9010.390.0100.0126
SeveljCM900.000.0100.0025
Babunski CM900.000.3030.161110
FerryLWB900.000.0100.0219
ThomsonRW620.000.0100.0012
DalbyST9010.970.010−0.0212
MiddletonLW8710.030.0110.0962
TrapanovskiMF280.000.2100.2371
van der SandeFW120.140.0000.0000
Ubochioma FW310.100.0000.0102

Hibernian

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
Bursik GK900.000.0000.0312
MillerRB4610.000.2220.0342
EkpitetaCB900.000.0210.0559
O'HoraCB9010.320.1110.10310
Obita LB9010.000.3510.2493
KwonDM900.020.0200.0132
Newell DM850.010.1910.1292
CaddenRW490.000.000−0.0102
MolotnikovAM640.090.0100.0142
HoilettLW890.100.1110.1171
KukharevychST880.000.010−0.0111
BoyleFW440.000.0100.0341
IredaleDF410.000.0000.0336
GayleFW2610.170.020−0.0201
LevittMF20.000.0000.0120
CampbellMF10.000.0000.0010

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Dundee United

Gallagher and Babunski: 3 passesStephenson and Babunski: 3 passesFerry and Babunski: 3 passesSevelj and Thomson: 3 passesBabunski and Thomson: 3 passesBabunski and Dalby: 3 passesWalton and Holt: 4 passesWalton and Dalby: 4 passesHolt and Middleton: 4 passesThomson and Dalby: 4 passesWalton and Adegboyega: 5 passesAdegboyega and Thomson: 5 passesGallagher and Holt: 5 passesHolt and Babunski: 5 passesFerry and Sevelj: 5 passesSevelj and Babunski: 5 passesAdegboyega and Sevelj: 6 passesHolt and Ferry: 6 passesBabunski and Middleton: 6 passesStephenson and Sevelj: 7 passesAdegboyega and Stephenson: 8 passesStephenson and Thomson: 9 passesFerry and Middleton: 9 passesAdegboyega and Gallagher: 10 passesWalton: 10 completed passesAdegboyega: 18 completed passesGallagher: 14 completed passesHolt: 14 completed passesStephenson: 15 completed passesFerry: 13 completed passesSevelj: 16 completed passesBabunski: 19 completed passesThomson: 13 completed passesMiddleton: 6 completed passesDalby: 6 completed passes1163141711510291519WaltonAdegboyegaGallagherHoltStephensonFerrySeveljBabunskiThomsonMiddletonDalbyStarters until 62' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Hibernian

Miller and O'Hora: 3 passesO'Hora and Hoilett: 3 passesMolotnikov and Hoilett: 3 passesHoilett and Kukharevych: 3 passesMiller and Newell: 4 passesObita and Kwon: 4 passesObita and Kukharevych: 4 passesO'Hora and Newell: 5 passesNewell and Molotnikov: 5 passesNewell and Hoilett: 5 passesMiller and Cadden: 6 passesMiller and Molotnikov: 6 passesO'Hora and Kwon: 6 passesEkpiteta and Kwon: 6 passesBursik and O'Hora: 7 passesEkpiteta and Obita: 7 passesKwon and Molotnikov: 7 passesMiller and Kwon: 8 passesObita and Newell: 8 passesBursik and Ekpiteta: 9 passesO'Hora and Ekpiteta: 10 passesMiller and Ekpiteta: 11 passesObita and Hoilett: 13 passesO'Hora and Obita: 19 passesBursik: 13 completed passesMiller: 19 completed passesO'Hora: 27 completed passesEkpiteta: 24 completed passesObita: 32 completed passesNewell: 17 completed passesKwon: 20 completed passesCadden: 5 completed passesMolotnikov: 10 completed passesHoilett: 17 completed passesKukharevych: 4 completed passes125421111812352399BursikMillerO'HoraEkpitetaObitaNewellKwonCaddenMolotnikovHoilettKukharevychStarters until 46' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Dundee United

FromToPasses
SeveljBabunski9
FerryHolt7
HoltGallagher7
GallagherAdegboyega7
StephensonAdegboyega6

Hibernian

FromToPasses
O'HoraObita12
EkpitetaMiller10
ObitaHoilett10
NewellObita9
ObitaO'Hora8

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Dundee United

5+1.75−1.714−3.36−3.38+1.612+6.74−2.73−3.67+1.19+1.47+1.16+2.05+1.74−1.75−0.62−2.44+1.34+2.02−0.73−1.12−1.15+4.30−0.60−1.41−1.30−1.70−0.41+0.10−0.61−0.1FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 7 matches

Hibernian

2−3.14−1.023+8.48+0.92−2.68+0.61−3.03−3.15−1.79+2.35+0.30−3.74+0.38+3.42−2.940.03−0.92−1.05+2.36+0.71−0.71−0.30−1.11+0.12−0.30−0.90−0.32+0.60−0.41+0.9FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 7 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Dundee United

0.010.010.020.110.010.020.020.060.030.040.030.030.020.030.100.01−0.010.05−0.010.04−0.050.17LessMore

Hibernian

0.020.020.020.010.040.030.010.020.030.030.020.020.03−0.010.010.100.01−0.01−0.01−0.01−0.020.030.140.19LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.35AttackDundee United1.11 → 1.15Hibernian1.23 → 1.21Defence (lower is better)Dundee United1.52 → 1.49Hibernian1.37 → 1.40

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Dundee United
Top six45%57%+12
11th7%5%−2
Bottom4%2%−2
Hibernian
Top six42%33%−9
11th6%8%+2
Bottom3%5%+2

From the forecast before the match (19 October 2024): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

Dundee UnitedHibernian
Expected goals1.321.27
Win37%35%
Expected Points1.401.32
Clean sheet28%27%

Dundee United 37%Draw 28%Hibernian 35%

Most likely score 1–1, 13%. Both sides score 53%.

Hibernian goalsDundee United goals0123456+0123456+8%9%6%3%9%8%3%1%7%8%5%2%3%4%2%1%1%1%13%

From the forecast as it stood on 19 October 2024: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowDundee United winDrawHibernian win
Dundee United
Top six45%57%45%33%
11th7%5%7%10%
Bottom4%2%4%7%
Hibernian
Top six42%33%40%54%
11th6%8%8%4%
Bottom3%5%3%2%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Dundee United

  1. W1–05 OctSt. Mirren (A)xG 0.97–1.07
  2. D3–328 SepKilmarnock (A)xG 2.73–2.31
  3. L0–115 SepRangers (H)xG 0.31–0.99
  4. W1–01 SepHearts (A)xG 1.26–0.63
  5. W2–024 AugSt. Johnstone (H)xG 0.41–1.58
  6. D1–110 AugRoss County (A)xG 1.34–2.23

Hibernian

  1. L1–25 OctMotherwell (H)xG 1.35–1.23
  2. L0–129 SepRangers (A)xG 2.16–1.78
  3. W2–014 SepSt. Johnstone (H)xG 1.61–0.25
  4. D1–11 SepKilmarnock (A)xG 0.44–2.54
  5. D2–224 AugDundee FC (H)xG 0.88–0.84
  6. L0–211 AugCeltic (H)xG 0.10–2.60

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

Dundee UnitedHibernian
Position5th10th
Played77
Won, drawn, lost3–⁠3–⁠11–⁠2–⁠4
Points12 (1.71 per game)5 (0.71 per game)
Expected Points per game1.111.23
Goals10–⁠76–⁠11
xG per game1.32–⁠1.601.16–⁠1.49
Home: points, xG per game1.33, 0.98–⁠1.661.00, 0.98–⁠1.23
Away: points, xG per game2.00, 1.57–⁠1.560.33, 1.39–⁠1.84
ManagerJim Goodwin (19)David Gray (9)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.35AttackDundee United1.11, 10thHibernian1.23, 7thDefence (lower is better)Dundee United1.52, 9thHibernian1.37, 5th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0SepOctDundee United attack: 1.11Hibernian attack: 1.231.231.11HibernianDundee UnitedDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0SepOctDundee United defence: 1.52Hibernian defence: 1.371.521.37

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

Dundee UnitedHibernian
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−1%+13%−27%−13%
Counter-attacks+24%−8%−69%+162%
Set pieces−14%+14%+29%+15%
Penalties−16%+68%−16%−16%
Headers−4%+25%−47%+2%
Left side+9%average−26%−3%
Centre+4%+29%−26%+22%
Right side−26%−16%+15%+3%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Dundee United attacking

Dundee United createdHibernian concededLeft side+9%+3%Centre+4%+22%Right side−26%−3%Open play−1%−13%Counter-attacks+24%+162%Set pieces−14%+15%Headers−4%+2%

Hibernian attacking

Hibernian createdDundee United concededLeft side−26%−16%Centre−26%+29%Right side+15%averageOpen play−27%+13%Counter-attacks−69%−8%Set pieces+29%+14%Headers−47%+25%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

Dundee UnitedHibernian

1.32xG1.16
1.60xG against1.49
43%Possession46%
11.1Shots13.3
14.4Shots against12.3
4.0Shots on target3.3
1.7Big chances1.4
23.7Touches in the opposition box22.1
315Passes321
67%Pass accuracy71%
3.7Corners6.4
45%Field tilt52%
30.6Final-third entries33.1
9.7Box entries8.3
15.8Passes per defensive action14.4

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Dundee United

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level461.601.59
Ahead280.901.70
Behind171.251.48

Hibernian

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level421.161.35
Ahead141.061.58
Behind341.201.63

xG by period

Dundee United

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.250.131–1
16–300.280.302–1
31–450.090.340–0
46–600.300.202–2
61–750.170.291–1
76–900.230.344–2

Hibernian

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.120.340–2
16–300.140.160–1
31–450.330.052–1
46–600.190.172–2
61–750.270.242–0
76–900.110.520–5

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Dundee United

GKCBCBCBRWBCMCMLWBAMAMSTWalton 7Adegboyega 6Gallagher 7Graham 6Holt 2Stephenson 5Sevelj 2Sibbald 7Holt 2Docherty 2Babunski 2Ferry 1Ferry 6Babunski 1Babunski 3Thomson 2Sevelj 1Trapanovski 5Dalby 1Moult 1van der Sande 6Dalby 13-4-2-1 in 5 of 7 starts

Formations: 3-4-2-1 (5), 3-5-2 (1), 3-4-3 (1)

Hibernian

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTBursik 7Miller 6Cadden 1Ekpiteta 7O'Hora 7Obita 7Kwon 5Campbell 1Moriah-Welsh 1Newell 4Triantis 3Boyle 4Cadden 2Youan 1Campbell 2Molotnikov 2Triantis 1Molotnikov 3Hoilett 2N. Cadden 2Kukharevych 5Campbell 1Vente 14-2-3-1 in 5 of 7 starts

Formations: 4-2-3-1 (5), 4-4-2 (1), 4-3-3 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
9 April 2023Dundee United2–1HibernianxG 1.44–1.47
14 January 2023Hibernian2–2Dundee UnitedxG 0.80–0.87
11 October 2022Dundee United1–0HibernianxG 0.56–1.31
2 April 2022Hibernian1–1Dundee UnitedxG 1.51–0.46
26 December 2021Dundee United1–3HibernianxG 0.54–1.80
16 October 2021Hibernian0–3Dundee UnitedxG 0.41–0.73

9 league meetings since 2020/21: Dundee United won 3, Hibernian won 3, and 3 were drawn. Goals 11–11 and xG 0.82–1.30 per game.

Key players

Dundee United

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Babunski6466100.170.12
Graham6507200.220.05
Ferry7630020.030.22
Adegboyega6496100.080.03

Hibernian

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Kukharevych6460100.450.03
Obita7630000.010.11
Ekpiteta7630000.060.02
Miller6521000.010.06

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.