Digressive Celts

Matches › 2025/26

Dundee United 2–1 Celtic

Wednesday 17 December 2025, 20:00 · CalForth Construction Arena at Tannadice Park · Round 11 · Half-time 0–1 · Referee John Beaton · Attendance 12,966

Dundee United Keresztes 58', Sapsford 61'

Celtic Maeda 13'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

Dundee UnitedCeltic
Goals21
xG1.453.20
Expected Points0.432.42

Dundee United 9%Draw 15%Celtic 76%

Most likely score 1–3, 10%. Final score 2–1, 2%.

Celtic goalsDundee United goals0123456+0123456+2%4%6%4%2%1%3%4%2%2%7%6%3%1%1%3%4%3%1%1%8%10%8%8%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

012340153045607590HTSevelj on for Esselink, 46'Dolcek on for Watters, 70'Möller on for Sapsford, 80'Yamada on for Kenny, Forrest on for Hatate, and Engels on for Bernardo, 65'Scales on for Tierney, 75'Nygren on for Yang, 86'Keresztes 58'Sapsford 61'Maeda 13'Celtic 3.20Dundee United 1.45012340153045607590HTSevelj on for Esselink, 46'Dolcek on for Watters, 70'Möller on for Sapsford, 80'Yamada on for Kenny, Forrest on for Hatate, and Engels on for Bernardo, 65'Scales on for Tierney, 75'Nygren on for Yang, 86'Keresztes 58'Sapsford 61'Maeda 13'3.201.45Dundee UnitedCeltic

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

Dundee UnitedCeltic

1.45 +0.22xG3.20 +1.14
1.81 +0.38xG on target0.78 −1.21
17 +5Shots18 +2
7 +2.4Shots on target2 −3.3
2 +0.1Big chances6 +2.4
30 +7Touches in the opposition box29 −7
27% −16Possession73% +2
215 −113Passes600 −61
60% −11Pass accuracy86% −2
16% −23Field tilt84% +6
26 −6Final-third entries68 −1
15 +4Box entries20 −1
19.7 +6.7Passes per defensive action14.5 +5.5
7 +2.9Corners6 −1.1
16 −2Tackles17 +3
8 −3.3Interceptions7 −0.3
50 +16Clearances52 +26
1 −2.5Saves5 +3.1
10 −4Fouls3 −10
3 +1.0Offsides3 +1.3

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Dundee United

Watters 61', 0.33 xGWatters 30', 0.32 xGWatters 24', 0.10 xGSapsford 51', 0.10 xGStrain 71', 0.07 xGKeresztes 30', 0.06 xGWatters 45', 0.06 xGGraham 52', 0.06 xGSapsford 49', 0.05 xGEsselink 31', 0.03 xGSibbald 32', 0.03 xGSibbald 47', 0.03 xGFerry 31', 0.02 xGFatah 77', 0.02 xGFatah 17', 0.01 xGKeresztes 58', 0.12 xG, goalSapsford 61', 0.03 xG, goal0%0.00 xGSix-yard box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals78%1.13 xGCentral box: 8 shots, 1.13 xG, 1 goal13%0.19 xGWide in the box: 5 shots, 0.19 xG, 1 goal8%0.12 xGEdge of the box: 3 shots, 0.12 xG, 0 goals1%0.01 xGFurther out: 1 shot, 0.01 xG, 0 goals

Celtic

Maeda 83', 0.78 xGKenny 34', 0.62 xGYamada 73', 0.32 xGKenny 6', 0.25 xGYang 4', 0.24 xGTrusty 43', 0.20 xGYamada 76', 0.13 xGKenny 8', 0.12 xGMcCowan 10', 0.10 xGKenny 40', 0.08 xGMaeda 36', 0.05 xGNygren 90+3', 0.05 xGMcCowan 69', 0.04 xGForrest 90', 0.04 xGHatate 20', 0.03 xGMcCowan 63', 0.02 xGHatate 3', 0.01 xGMaeda 13', 0.15 xG, goal57%1.82 xGSix-yard box: 4 shots, 1.82 xG, 0 goals21%0.68 xGCentral box: 4 shots, 0.68 xG, 0 goals10%0.31 xGWide in the box: 3 shots, 0.31 xG, 1 goal11%0.34 xGEdge of the box: 5 shots, 0.34 xG, 0 goals1%0.04 xGFurther out: 2 shots, 0.04 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

Dundee UnitedCeltic

0.54 6 shots, 0 goalsOpen play2.54 11 shots, 0 goals
0.11 2 shots, 0 goalsCounter-attacks0.27 2 shots, 1 goal
0.81 9 shots, 2 goalsSet pieces0.40 5 shots, 0 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
16 min (17%) · Dundee United 0.36, Celtic 0.87 xG
Dundee United ahead
33 min (35%) · Dundee United 0.09, Celtic 1.37 xG
Celtic ahead
45 min (48%) · Dundee United 1.00, Celtic 0.96 xG

Line-ups

253236214211191736RichardsEsselinkKeresztesGrahamStrainSibbaldStephensonFerrySapsfordFatahWattersYellow cardGoalYellow cardGoal46'80'70'Dundee United 3-4-2-1Jim Goodwin15666313422814412438SchmeichelRalstonTrustyTierneyYangMcGregorBernardoMcCowanHatateKennyMaedaYellow cardGoal75'86'65'65'65'Celtic 3-4-3Wilfried Nancy

Dundee United substitutes

  • 46' Sevelj for Esselink · 1 assist
  • 70' Dolcek for Watters
  • 80' Möller for Sapsford

Celtic substitutes

  • 65' Engels for Bernardo
  • 65' Forrest for Hatate
  • 65' Yamada for Kenny
  • 75' Scales for Tierney
  • 86' Nygren for Yang

Players

Dundee United

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
Richards GK900.000.0110.0413
EsselinkCB460.030.0000.0331
KeresztesCB9010.180.0010.02312
GrahamCB900.060.090−0.04312
StrainRWB900.070.0000.02310
SibbaldCM900.060.0100.0029
Stephenson CM900.000.0210.0965
FerryLWB900.020.1940.1476
SapsfordAM8010.170.0920.1432
FatahAM9010.040.0940.1964
WattersST700.810.0000.0710
SeveljMF4410.000.1810.06110
DolcekFW200.000.010−0.0113
MöllerFW100.000.000−0.0101

Celtic

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
SchmeichelGK900.000.0000.0430
RalstonCB900.000.0300.08317
TrustyCB900.200.0300.111023
TierneyCB750.000.0810.14315
YangRWB860.240.0600.14145
McGregorCM900.000.0410.1075
Bernardo CM650.000.2320.0646
McCowanLWB900.160.2130.18104
HatateRW650.040.0310.0661
KennyST6511.070.0810.1231
MaedaLW9010.970.7230.4360
EngelsMF250.000.0310.0222
ForrestFW250.040.5910.1930
YamadaFW250.440.0000.0000
ScalesDF150.000.0210.0100
NygrenFW40.050.0200.0610

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Dundee United

Richards and Esselink: 3 passesEsselink and Sibbald: 3 passesEsselink and Sapsford: 3 passesGraham and Ferry: 3 passesStrain and Stephenson: 3 passesRichards and Watters: 4 passesKeresztes and Esselink: 4 passesStrain and Sapsford: 4 passesStephenson and Sapsford: 4 passesEsselink and Strain: 6 passesFerry and Sibbald: 8 passesRichards: 6 completed passesKeresztes: 8 completed passesEsselink: 10 completed passesGraham: 7 completed passesStrain: 11 completed passesFerry: 9 completed passesStephenson: 5 completed passesSibbald: 10 completed passesSapsford: 8 completed passesFatah: 2 completed passesWatters: 3 completed passes252336211211491736RichardsKeresztesEsselinkGrahamStrainFerryStephensonSibbaldSapsfordFatahWattersStarters until 46' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Celtic

Schmeichel and Tierney: 7 passesTrusty and McCowan: 7 passesTierney and McGregor: 7 passesHatate and Kenny: 7 passesTrusty and Bernardo: 8 passesBernardo and Maeda: 8 passesMcGregor and Maeda: 8 passesSchmeichel and Ralston: 9 passesMcCowan and Hatate: 9 passesBernardo and Hatate: 9 passesTrusty and McGregor: 11 passesRalston and McGregor: 11 passesMcGregor and Hatate: 11 passesMcCowan and Maeda: 12 passesRalston and Yang: 13 passesTierney and Maeda: 14 passesRalston and Hatate: 14 passesTierney and McCowan: 15 passesTierney and Bernardo: 15 passesYang and Hatate: 15 passesMcCowan and McGregor: 16 passesTrusty and Ralston: 18 passesMcCowan and Bernardo: 18 passesTrusty and Tierney: 19 passesBernardo and McGregor: 22 passesSchmeichel and Trusty: 25 passesSchmeichel: 26 completed passesTrusty: 52 completed passesTierney: 40 completed passesRalston: 40 completed passesYang: 27 completed passesMcCowan: 37 completed passesBernardo: 47 completed passesMcGregor: 54 completed passesHatate: 31 completed passesKenny: 13 completed passesMaeda: 27 completed passes16635613142842412438SchmeichelTrustyTierneyRalstonYangMcCowanBernardoMcGregorHatateKennyMaedaStarters until 65' · lines join pairs with 7+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Dundee United

FromToPasses
SibbaldFerry7
FerryGraham6
KeresztesStephenson6
FerryFatah5
StephensonSapsford5

Celtic

FromToPasses
TrustyRalston18
TrustySchmeichel18
RalstonTrusty15
BernardoMcGregor12
McGregorRalston12

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Dundee United

3−2.614+6.323+6.47−0.61−4.86−0.68−0.47−0.57−1.23−5.18+3.04−0.42−2.94−2.65−1.63−0.73−1.23−0.46+1.72−1.72−0.32+0.22+1.13+0.81−0.91+0.40−0.40−0.71+0.63+1.9FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 16 matches

Celtic

1−1.79+5.114+2.84−1.56+1.95−0.97+1.99+3.524+16.511+3.43−1.57+3.05+2.17+1.43−2.72−2.31−3.13−0.42−1.53−2.00−2.01−1.30−1.51−2.51−1.80−1.10−0.50−0.70−0.31−0.1FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 15 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Dundee United

0.040.010.010.010.020.040.030.030.020.020.030.040.030.010.120.07−0.100.110.010.19LessMore

Celtic

0.010.010.010.020.020.020.020.040.010.040.010.030.050.080.100.050.170.130.080.030.070.120.05−0.010.140.210.25LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.33AttackDundee United1.13 → 1.14Celtic2.17 → 2.17Defence (lower is better)Dundee United1.53 → 1.54Celtic0.82 → 0.83

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Dundee United
Top six9%17%+8
11th9%4%−5
Bottom4%1%−3
Celtic
Title86%76%−10
Hearts
Title9%14%+5
Rangers
Title5%9%+4

From the forecast before the match (17 December 2025): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

Dundee UnitedCeltic
Expected goals0.812.23
Win12%69%
Expected Points0.542.27
Clean sheet11%44%

Dundee United 12%Draw 19%Celtic 69%

Most likely score 0–2, 12%. Both sides score 50%.

Celtic goalsDundee United goals0123456+0123456+5%5%2%1%3%7%4%2%1%2%4%4%3%2%1%1%10%12%9%9%10%

From the forecast as it stood on 17 December 2025: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowDundee United winDrawCeltic win
Dundee United
Top six9%17%10%8%
11th9%4%6%10%
Bottom4%1%3%5%
Celtic
Title86%76%81%88%
Hearts
Title9%14%12%8%
Rangers
Title5%9%6%4%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Dundee United

  1. D0–013 DecMotherwell (H)xG 0.49–0.68
  2. L0–26 DecSt. Mirren (A)xG 1.01–1.24
  3. D2–23 DecRangers (H)xG 1.38–4.79
  4. D1–129 NovKilmarnock (A)xG 1.86–2.11
  5. L0–322 NovFalkirk (H)xG 0.74–1.78
  6. D1–19 NovHearts (A)xG 0.34–0.45

Celtic

  1. L1–27 DecHearts (H)xG 1.87–0.52
  2. W1–03 DecDundee FC (H)xG 2.08–0.21
  3. W2–130 NovHibernian (A)xG 1.33–1.65
  4. W1–022 NovSt. Mirren (A)xG 0.88–1.53
  5. W4–09 NovKilmarnock (H)xG 2.85–0.38
  6. W4–029 OctFalkirk (H)xG 4.29–0.47

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

Dundee UnitedCeltic
Position8th2nd
Played1615
Won, drawn, lost3–⁠8–⁠510–⁠2–⁠3
Points17 (1.06 per game)32 (2.13 per game)
Expected Points per game1.082.06
Goals21–⁠2525–⁠11
xG per game1.23–⁠1.702.06–⁠0.84
Home: points, xG per game1.12, 1.40–⁠1.942.38, 2.62–⁠0.52
Away: points, xG per game1.00, 1.07–⁠1.461.86, 1.43–⁠1.20
ManagerJim Goodwin (66)Wilfried Nancy (1)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.33AttackDundee United1.13, 8thCeltic2.17, 1stDefence (lower is better)Dundee United1.53, 9thCeltic0.82, 1st

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.02.5SepOctNovDecDundee United attack: 1.13Celtic attack: 2.172.171.13CelticDundee UnitedDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.02.5SepOctNovDecDundee United defence: 1.53Celtic defence: 0.821.530.82

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

Dundee UnitedCeltic
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−31%+37%+115%−57%
Counter-attacks+36%−19%−19%−41%
Set pieces+11%+15%−35%−18%
Penalties+5%+40%+12%+12%
Headers−9%+12%+60%−26%
Left side+9%+8%+72%−59%
Centre−23%+35%+71%−35%
Right side−5%+16%+10%−50%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Dundee United attacking

Dundee United createdCeltic concededLeft side+9%−50%Centre−23%−35%Right side−5%−59%Open play−31%−57%Counter-attacks+36%−41%Set pieces+11%−18%Headers−9%−26%

Celtic attacking

Celtic createdDundee United concededLeft side+72%+16%Centre+71%+35%Right side+10%+8%Open play+115%+37%Counter-attacks−19%−19%Set pieces−35%+15%Headers+60%+12%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

Dundee UnitedCeltic

1.23xG2.06
1.70xG against0.84
43%Possession70%
12.3Shots16.4
16.2Shots against7.2
4.6Shots on target5.3
1.9Big chances3.6
22.6Touches in the opposition box35.7
328Passes661
71%Pass accuracy88%
4.1Corners7.1
39%Field tilt79%
31.8Final-third entries68.6
11.4Box entries21.4
13.0Passes per defensive action9.0

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Dundee United

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level491.261.64
Ahead160.972.58
Behind251.351.26

Celtic

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level501.950.78
Ahead292.080.80
Behind122.491.17

xG by period

Dundee United

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.180.153–1
16–300.080.301–9
31–450.200.376–3
46–600.230.263–4
61–750.270.285–3
76–900.270.343–5

Celtic

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.260.143–1
16–300.400.035–1
31–450.340.191–3
46–600.260.224–4
61–750.280.074–1
76–900.520.188–1

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Dundee United

GKCBCBCBRWBCMCMLWBRWSTLWKucherenko 12Richards 4Iovu 14Stephenson 1Camara 1Esselink 14Graham 3Keresztes 14Stephenson 10Strain 3Sevelj 1Sevelj 13Sibbald 9Camara 8Stephenson 1Ferry 13Keresztes 1Dolcek 1Dolcek 7Fatah 3Stephenson 2Sapsford 10Möller 4Watters 1Fatah 7Sapsford 5Dolcek 23-4-3 in 9 of 16 starts

Formations: 3-4-3 (9), 3-5-2 (4), 4-3-3 (2), 4-2-3-1 (1)

Celtic

GKRBCBCBLBCMCMCMRWSTLWSchmeichel 15Ralston 7Donovan 4Johnston 2Carter-Vickers 7Trusty 5Murray 2Scales 15Tierney 1Saracchi 7Tierney 6Tounekti 1Engels 9Nygren 6McCowan 4McGregor 14Bernardo 1Hatate 11Nygren 3Maeda 3Yang 2Maeda 5Kenny 4Iheanacho 3Tounekti 6Maeda 3Yang 34-3-3 in 14 of 15 starts

Formations: 4-3-3 (14), 3-4-2-1 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
26 April 2025Dundee United0–5CelticxG 0.44–3.06
15 February 2025Celtic3–0Dundee UnitedxG 1.64–0.16
8 January 2025Celtic2–0Dundee UnitedxG 1.74–0.16
22 December 2024Dundee United0–0CelticxG 0.10–1.00
29 January 2023Dundee United0–2CelticxG 0.33–2.91
5 November 2022Celtic4–2Dundee UnitedxG 3.07–1.05

14 league meetings since 2020/21: Dundee United won 0, Celtic won 10, and 4 were drawn. Goals 4–35 and xG 0.49–2.68 per game.

Key players

Dundee United

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Sapsford161,301410.310.07
Dolcek10802510.240.14
Möller5590020.210.09
Fatah10886220.200.10

Celtic

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Nygren9838520.520.30
Maeda111,010530.460.12
Tounekti9661100.200.30
McCowan6591110.180.26

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.