Digressive Celts

Matches › 2025/26

Dundee United 0–3 Falkirk

Saturday 22 November 2025, 15:00 · CalForth Construction Arena at Tannadice Park · Round 13 · Half-time 0–2 · Referee Nick Walsh · Attendance 9,736

Falkirk Miller 4', Kucherenko 21' (og), Graham 63'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

Dundee UnitedFalkirk
Goals03
xG0.741.78
Expected Points0.612.15

Dundee United 12%Draw 24%Falkirk 64%

Most likely score 0–2, 15%. Final score 0–3, 8%.

Falkirk goalsDundee United goals0123456+0123456+6%8%3%4%6%2%2%4%5%2%14%15%13%12%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

00.511.520153045607590HTStrain on for Sevelj and Trapanovski on for Dolcek, 46'Möller on for Sapsford and Watters on for Esselink, 64'Cartwright on for Tait, 73'Agyeman on for Graham and Edwards on for Lissah, 74'Ross on for Wilson, 78'Oliver on for Miller, 86'Miller 4'Kucherenko 21' (og)Graham 63'Falkirk 1.78Dundee United 0.7400.511.520153045607590HTStrain on for Sevelj and Trapanovski on for Dolcek, 46'Möller on for Sapsford and Watters on for Esselink, 64'Cartwright on for Tait, 73'Agyeman on for Graham and Edwards on for Lissah, 74'Ross on for Wilson, 78'Oliver on for Miller, 86'Miller 4'Kucherenko 21' (og)Graham 63'1.780.74Dundee UnitedFalkirk

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

Dundee UnitedFalkirk

0.74 −0.56xG1.78 +0.54
0.47 −1.12xG on target2.61 +1.38
13 0Shots16 +4
5 0.0Shots on target4 −0.5
1 −0.9Big chances2 −0.2
26 +3Touches in the opposition box18 −2
43% 0Possession57% +6
314 −7Passes439 +45
69% −3Pass accuracy76% +1
57% +19Field tilt43% −6
41 +11Final-third entries35 0
13 +1Box entries9 −2
10.4 −3Passes per defensive action13.3 +1
5 +0.7Corners5 +0.5
17 −1Tackles13 −5
14 +4.3Interceptions9 +0.7
21 −15Clearances30 0
2 −1.5Saves5 +1.1
23 +10Fouls9 −4
0 −2.4Offsides0 −2.5

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Dundee United

Watters 65', 0.12 xGKeresztes 61', 0.10 xGKeresztes 90+4', 0.10 xGFatah 38', 0.08 xGIovu 9', 0.07 xGKeresztes 35', 0.07 xGDolcek 7', 0.05 xGTrapanovski 49', 0.05 xGTrapanovski 67', 0.04 xGSevelj 24', 0.02 xGMöller 71', 0.02 xGKeresztes 47', 0.01 xGFatah 69', 0.01 xG16%0.12 xGSix-yard box: 1 shot, 0.12 xG, 0 goals59%0.43 xGCentral box: 6 shots, 0.43 xG, 0 goals7%0.05 xGWide in the box: 2 shots, 0.05 xG, 0 goals16%0.12 xGEdge of the box: 3 shots, 0.12 xG, 0 goals1%0.01 xGFurther out: 1 shot, 0.01 xG, 0 goals

Falkirk

Miller 8', 0.13 xGMiller 3', 0.12 xGMiller 79', 0.11 xGWilson 10', 0.07 xGMiller 62', 0.07 xGWilson 32', 0.06 xGWilliams 39', 0.06 xGAdams 62', 0.05 xGHenderson 68', 0.05 xGSpencer 21', 0.04 xGEdwards 88', 0.04 xGTait 8', 0.03 xGTait 62', 0.03 xGLissah 8', 0.01 xGGraham 63', 0.52 xG, goalMiller 3', 0.39 xG, goal0%0.00 xGSix-yard box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals34%0.61 xGCentral box: 4 shots, 0.61 xG, 1 goal41%0.73 xGWide in the box: 4 shots, 0.73 xG, 1 goal24%0.43 xGEdge of the box: 8 shots, 0.43 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

Dundee UnitedFalkirk

0.48 8 shots, 0 goalsOpen play1.06 11 shots, 1 goal
0.00 0 shots, 0 goalsCounter-attacks0.62 3 shots, 1 goal
0.26 5 shots, 0 goalsSet pieces0.09 2 shots, 0 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
4 min (4%) · Dundee United 0.00, Falkirk 0.51 xG
Falkirk ahead
91 min (96%) · Dundee United 0.74, Falkirk 1.26 xG

Line-ups

14323215141119917KucherenkoIovuEsselinkKeresztesStephensonSeveljSibbaldFerryDolcekSapsfordFatahOwn goalYellow cardYellow card64'46'46'64'Dundee United 3-4-3Jim Goodwin192205288212229247BainAdamsAllanHendersonLissahSpencerTaitWilsonMillerWilliamsGrahamYellow cardYellow cardGoalGoalYellow card74'73'78'86'74'Falkirk 4-2-3-1John McGlynn

Dundee United substitutes

  • 46' Strain for Sevelj · yellow card 90+2'
  • 46' Trapanovski for Dolcek
  • 64' Watters for Esselink
  • 64' Möller for Sapsford

Falkirk substitutes

  • 73' Cartwright for Tait
  • 74' Edwards for Lissah
  • 74' Agyeman for Graham
  • 78' Ross for Wilson
  • 86' Oliver for Miller

Players

Dundee United

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
KucherenkoGK900.000.0000.0572
IovuCB900.070.0100.03312
Esselink CB640.000.0000.0318
KeresztesCB900.280.0100.1589
Stephenson RWB900.000.0210.0362
SeveljCM460.020.1310.0834
SibbaldCM900.000.0320.0436
FerryLWB900.000.2620.08116
DolcekRW460.050.0000.0011
SapsfordST640.000.021−0.0301
FatahLW900.090.2640.3065
Strain DF440.000.0210.0231
TrapanovskiFW440.090.2100.2441
WattersFW260.120.020−0.0200
MöllerFW260.020.0000.0000

Falkirk

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
BainGK900.000.0000.0202
AdamsRB900.050.0100.0648
AllanCB900.000.0100.03211
HendersonCB900.050.0100.0447
LissahLB740.010.0440.1082
SpencerDM900.040.2830.06610
Tait DM730.060.0310.0894
Wilson RW780.130.0200.0234
MillerAM86110.820.5220.1561
WilliamsLW900.060.1010.1752
Graham ST7410.520.132−0.1202
CartwrightMF170.000.000−0.0100
EdwardsDF160.040.0000.0001
AgyemanFW160.000.0000.0110
RossFW120.000.011−0.0110
OliverFW40.000.0000.0110

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Dundee United

Kucherenko and Stephenson: 3 passesKeresztes and Fatah: 3 passesEsselink and Sibbald: 3 passesEsselink and Sapsford: 3 passesFerry and Sevelj: 3 passesIovu and Dolcek: 4 passesStephenson and Sevelj: 4 passesStephenson and Sapsford: 4 passesIovu and Esselink: 5 passesIovu and Sibbald: 5 passesStephenson and Dolcek: 5 passesFerry and Sibbald: 5 passesSevelj and Sibbald: 5 passesStephenson and Sibbald: 6 passesKeresztes and Sevelj: 7 passesEsselink and Sevelj: 7 passesSibbald and Dolcek: 7 passesSapsford and Fatah: 7 passesKeresztes and Ferry: 10 passesKeresztes and Esselink: 11 passesKucherenko: 5 completed passesKeresztes: 15 completed passesIovu: 11 completed passesEsselink: 16 completed passesStephenson: 11 completed passesFerry: 14 completed passesSevelj: 16 completed passesSibbald: 18 completed passesDolcek: 7 completed passesSapsford: 10 completed passesFatah: 8 completed passes12343211151419917KucherenkoKeresztesIovuEsselinkStephensonFerrySeveljSibbaldDolcekSapsfordFatahStarters until 46' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Falkirk

Bain and Adams: 4 passesTait and Williams: 4 passesSpencer and Miller: 4 passesMiller and Graham: 4 passesLissah and Graham: 5 passesTait and Wilson: 5 passesHenderson and Tait: 6 passesTait and Graham: 6 passesWilson and Miller: 6 passesMiller and Williams: 6 passesLissah and Tait: 7 passesLissah and Miller: 7 passesTait and Spencer: 7 passesAdams and Spencer: 9 passesLissah and Williams: 9 passesAllan and Tait: 10 passesHenderson and Lissah: 11 passesHenderson and Spencer: 12 passesAllan and Spencer: 13 passesAdams and Allan: 16 passesAdams and Tait: 18 passesHenderson and Allan: 18 passesBain and Henderson: 19 passesBain and Allan: 21 passesBain: 33 completed passesAdams: 32 completed passesHenderson: 38 completed passesAllan: 45 completed passesLissah: 25 completed passesTait: 30 completed passesSpencer: 28 completed passesWilson: 10 completed passesMiller: 15 completed passesWilliams: 15 completed passesGraham: 7 completed passes192520282182229247BainAdamsHendersonAllanLissahTaitSpencerWilsonMillerWilliamsGrahamStarters until 73' · lines join pairs with 4+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Dundee United

FromToPasses
EsselinkKeresztes9
FerryKeresztes9
StrainFatah9
KeresztesFerry7
KeresztesEsselink6

Falkirk

FromToPasses
AllanBain16
BainHenderson15
AdamsAllan11
AllanHenderson11
HendersonAllan11

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Dundee United

5−0.63−4.912−4.78+0.44−2.19+2.06−2.612+4.44−4.66−2.46+0.96+2.07+2.24−2.48+1.26+2.58+3.410+6.84−0.42−1.04+1.62+0.22+1.23+0.86+4.40−0.61+0.70−1.00−0.30−1.0FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 11 matches

Falkirk

9+1.513+6.614−0.78+0.73−2.210+1.59+2.85−1.79+2.29+0.53−4.96+1.66+3.55+0.85−2.04−0.72−2.02−0.10−2.70−4.46+2.00−1.61−0.20−2.21−1.80−0.81+0.81+0.40−0.20−0.8FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 12 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Dundee United

0.010.020.010.010.020.010.020.010.030.010.030.020.040.010.060.030.080.04−0.040.040.030.080.020.160.010.25LessMore

Falkirk

0.010.010.010.030.010.010.030.030.010.030.040.010.010.010.050.060.050.060.030.050.02−0.01−0.05−0.070.070.10LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.36AttackDundee United1.20 → 1.17Falkirk1.15 → 1.21Defence (lower is better)Dundee United1.47 → 1.50Falkirk1.53 → 1.45

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Dundee United
Top six43%28%−15
11th5%8%+3
Bottom2%3%+1
Falkirk
Top six32%49%+17
11th8%4%−4
Bottom4%2%−2

From the forecast before the match (22 November 2025): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

Dundee UnitedFalkirk
Expected goals1.591.11
Win48%26%
Expected Points1.701.04
Clean sheet33%20%

Dundee United 48%Draw 26%Falkirk 26%

Most likely score 1–1, 12%. Both sides score 54%.

Falkirk goalsDundee United goals0123456+0123456+7%7%4%2%7%2%9%5%2%5%5%3%1%2%2%1%10%12%9%

From the forecast as it stood on 22 November 2025: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowDundee United winDrawFalkirk win
Dundee United
Top six43%53%39%28%
11th5%3%5%8%
Bottom2%1%2%3%
Falkirk
Top six32%23%33%49%
11th8%11%7%4%
Bottom4%6%4%2%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Dundee United

  1. D1–19 NovHearts (A)xG 0.34–0.45
  2. L0–229 OctMotherwell (A)xG 0.48–1.08
  3. W3–125 OctSt. Mirren (H)xG 2.21–2.28
  4. D2–218 OctRangers (A)xG 0.87–1.62
  5. D1–14 OctLivingston (H)xG 2.14–1.29
  6. L0–227 SepKilmarnock (H)xG 2.21–1.49

Falkirk

  1. D1–18 NovLivingston (H)xG 1.82–0.62
  2. W3–11 NovKilmarnock (H)xG 2.08–0.43
  3. L0–429 OctCeltic (A)xG 0.47–4.29
  4. W2–125 OctDundee FC (H)xG 1.08–1.21
  5. W2–118 OctMotherwell (A)xG 1.35–1.01
  6. D1–15 OctRangers (H)xG 1.43–1.09

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

Dundee UnitedFalkirk
Position7th5th
Played1112
Won, drawn, lost3–⁠5–⁠34–⁠4–⁠4
Points14 (1.27 per game)16 (1.33 per game)
Expected Points per game1.201.29
Goals18–⁠1716–⁠21
xG per game1.30–⁠1.511.24–⁠1.53
Home: points, xG per game1.40, 1.72–⁠1.651.43, 1.47–⁠1.22
Away: points, xG per game1.17, 0.94–⁠1.391.20, 0.91–⁠1.96
ManagerJim Goodwin (61)John McGlynn (12)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.36AttackDundee United1.20, 7thFalkirk1.15, 9thDefence (lower is better)Dundee United1.47, 7thFalkirk1.53, 10th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovDundee United attack: 1.20Falkirk attack: 1.151.201.15FalkirkDundee UnitedDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovDundee United defence: 1.47Falkirk defence: 1.531.531.47

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

Dundee UnitedFalkirk
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−25%+23%+2%+19%
Counter-attacks+43%−41%−17%+34%
Set pieces+11%+17%−9%−3%
Penaltiesaverageaverage−54%−8%
Headers−15%+28%−16%+25%
Left side+35%−21%−46%−23%
Centre−24%+31%−10%+24%
Right side−1%+1%+53%+31%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Dundee United attacking

Dundee United createdFalkirk concededLeft side+35%+31%Centre−24%+24%Right side−1%−23%Open play−25%+19%Counter-attacks+43%+34%Set pieces+11%−3%Headers−15%+25%

Falkirk attacking

Falkirk createdDundee United concededLeft side−46%+1%Centre−10%+31%Right side+53%−21%Open play+2%+23%Counter-attacks−17%−41%Set pieces−9%+17%Headers−16%+28%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

Dundee UnitedFalkirk

1.30xG1.24
1.51xG against1.53
42%Possession51%
12.5Shots11.5
15.9Shots against13.8
5.0Shots on target4.5
1.9Big chances2.2
22.8Touches in the opposition box20.0
321Passes394
72%Pass accuracy76%
4.3Corners4.5
38%Field tilt50%
30.4Final-third entries34.7
11.6Box entries10.8
13.8Passes per defensive action12.6

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Dundee United

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level501.361.33
Ahead200.962.01
Behind201.461.45

Falkirk

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level441.351.64
Ahead150.950.62
Behind311.221.82

xG by period

Dundee United

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.140.122–0
16–300.100.321–6
31–450.210.356–2
46–600.250.303–4
61–750.270.163–1
76–900.320.263–4

Falkirk

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.200.141–0
16–300.280.412–6
31–450.210.402–6
46–600.210.233–2
61–750.180.195–4
76–900.160.153–3

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Dundee United

GKCBCBCBRWBCMCMLWBRWSTLWKucherenko 11Iovu 9Camará 1Stephenson 1Esselink 11Keresztes 10Stephenson 8Sevelj 1Eskesen 1Sevelj 10Camará 6Sibbald 5Pappoe 1Ferry 8Keresztes 1Dolcek 1Dolcek 6Camará 2Fatah 2Sapsford 8Möller 2Stirton 1Fatah 5Sapsford 3Dolcek 23-4-3 in 6 of 11 starts

Formations: 3-4-3 (6), 4-3-3 (2), 3-5-2 (2), 4-2-3-1 (1)

Falkirk

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTBain 12Adams 12Neilson 6Allan 4Lissah 1Henderson 12McCann 6Lissah 4Neilson 1Spencer 12Cartwright 5Tait 7Wilson 5Miller 4Arfield 2Tait 4Williams 3Miller 2Miller 6Williams 3Ross 2MacIver 9Graham 2Samuel-Ogunsuyi 14-2-3-1 in every start

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
3 August 2025Falkirk2–2Dundee UnitedxG 2.02–1.19

1 league meeting since 2020/21: Dundee United won 0, Falkirk won 0, and 1 was a draw. Goals 2–2 and xG 1.19–2.02 per game.

Key players

Dundee United

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Sapsford11942310.330.08
Dolcek9691510.270.14
Fatah7571120.200.07
Stephenson9782310.130.12

Falkirk

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
MacIver9661310.410.12
Miller12907220.210.18
Williams7577130.230.16
Tait11895100.100.10

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.