Digressive Celts

Matches › 2025/26

Celtic 4–0 Falkirk

Wednesday 29 October 2025, 19:45 · Celtic Park · Round 10 · Half-time 2–0 · Referee Ryan Lee · Attendance 58,169

Celtic Kenny 30', 40', Nygren 58', Tounekti 73'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

CelticFalkirk
Goals40
xG4.290.47
Expected Points2.940.04

Celtic 97%Draw 2%Falkirk <1%

Most likely score 4–0, 14%. Final score 4–0, 14%.

Falkirk goalsCeltic goals0123456+0123456+2%1%6%3%6%1%8%2%7%1%7%1%12%14%12%14%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

02460153045607590HTBalikwisha on for Forrest, 61'Maeda on for Kenny and McCowan on for Nygren, 66'Osmand on for Tounekti, 76'Hatate on for McGregor, 77'Williams on for Ross, 46'Hart on for Lissah, Agyeman on for Miller, and Graham on for Samuel-Ogunsuyi, 62'Cartwright on for Spencer, 68'Kenny 30'Kenny 40'Nygren 58'Tounekti 73'Celtic 4.29Falkirk 0.4702460153045607590HTBalikwisha on for Forrest, 61'Maeda on for Kenny and McCowan on for Nygren, 66'Osmand on for Tounekti, 76'Hatate on for McGregor, 77'Williams on for Ross, 46'Hart on for Lissah, Agyeman on for Miller, and Graham on for Samuel-Ogunsuyi, 62'Cartwright on for Spencer, 68'Kenny 30'Kenny 40'Nygren 58'Tounekti 73'4.290.47CelticFalkirk

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

CelticFalkirk

4.29 +2.33xG0.47 −0.69
5.00 +3.03xG on target0.48 −0.74
26 +10Shots8 −4
11 +5.8Shots on target4 −0.6
7 +3.2Big chances0 −2.3
37 0Touches in the opposition box13 −8
60% −12Possession40% −13
503 −167Passes331 −80
85% −3Pass accuracy76% −1
81% +2Field tilt19% −35
55 −18Final-third entries22 −16
21 −1Box entries6 −5
9.8 +1.5Passes per defensive action18.9 +6.6
6 −2.2Corners3 −1.8
16 +2Tackles15 −4
6 −1.9Interceptions10 +2.7
18 −11Clearances22 −9
4 +2.3Saves7 +3.4
14 +1Fouls12 0
1 −0.8Offsides5 +2.4

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Celtic

Nygren 44', 0.37 xGKenny 37', 0.23 xGForrest 25', 0.22 xGTounekti 18', 0.16 xGNygren 2', 0.14 xGNygren 26', 0.14 xGNygren 30', 0.14 xGTounekti 42', 0.12 xGMcCowan 84', 0.12 xGKenny 47', 0.09 xGMaeda 76', 0.08 xGTrusty 18', 0.07 xGForrest 39', 0.05 xGKenny 39', 0.05 xGMcCowan 71', 0.05 xGNygren 15', 0.04 xGNygren 22', 0.04 xGSaracchi 41', 0.04 xGSaracchi 58', 0.04 xGForrest 51', 0.03 xGOsmand 88', 0.03 xGTounekti 39', 0.01 xGNygren 58', 0.69 xG, goalKenny 30', 0.57 xG, goalTounekti 73', 0.52 xG, goalKenny 40', 0.23 xG, goal27%1.16 xGSix-yard box: 4 shots, 1.16 xG, 1 goal61%2.63 xGCentral box: 12 shots, 2.63 xG, 3 goals8%0.34 xGWide in the box: 6 shots, 0.34 xG, 0 goals4%0.15 xGEdge of the box: 4 shots, 0.15 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Falkirk

Samuel-Ogunsuyi 48', 0.19 xGSamuel-Ogunsuyi 33', 0.10 xGArfield 90+1', 0.05 xGArfield 2', 0.04 xGRoss 20', 0.04 xGAdams 34', 0.03 xGGraham 88', 0.02 xGTait 73', 0.01 xG40%0.19 xGSix-yard box: 1 shot, 0.19 xG, 0 goals21%0.10 xGCentral box: 1 shot, 0.10 xG, 0 goals6%0.03 xGWide in the box: 1 shot, 0.03 xG, 0 goals29%0.14 xGEdge of the box: 4 shots, 0.14 xG, 0 goals4%0.02 xGFurther out: 1 shot, 0.02 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

CelticFalkirk

3.20 18 shots, 3 goalsOpen play0.20 5 shots, 0 goals
0.66 3 shots, 1 goalCounter-attacks0.00 0 shots, 0 goals
0.43 5 shots, 0 goalsSet pieces0.27 3 shots, 0 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
30 min (33%) · Celtic 1.52, Falkirk 0.08 xG
Celtic ahead
61 min (67%) · Celtic 2.76, Falkirk 0.39 xG

Line-ups

156653627428492423SchmeichelRalstonTrustyScalesSaracchiEngelsMcGregorNygrenForrestKennyTounektiGoalYellow cardGoalGoalGoal77'66'61'66'76'Celtic 4-3-3Martin O'Neill1922052821829372347BainAdamsAllanHendersonLissahTaitSpencerMillerArfieldRossSamuel-OgunsuyiYellow cardYellow card62'68'62'46'62'Falkirk 4-2-3-1John McGlynn

Celtic substitutes

  • 61' Balikwisha for Forrest
  • 66' McCowan for Nygren · 1 assist
  • 66' Maeda for Kenny
  • 76' Osmand for Tounekti
  • 77' Hatate for McGregor

Falkirk substitutes

  • 46' Williams for Ross
  • 62' Hart for Lissah
  • 62' Agyeman for Miller
  • 62' Graham for Samuel-Ogunsuyi
  • 68' Cartwright for Spencer

Players

Celtic

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
SchmeichelGK900.000.0000.0460
RalstonRB900.000.1000.04103
TrustyCB900.070.0320.1239
ScalesCB900.000.0400.14138
SaracchiLB900.080.5620.5489
EngelsCM900.000.4040.0810
McGregorCM770.000.0610.0213
Nygren CM66111.570.1930.3643
ForrestRW610.300.3220.2950
KennyST6621.170.0200.0011
TounektiLW7610.810.3550.21133
BalikwishaFW290.000.0100.0131
McCowanMF2410.170.0820.1122
MaedaFW240.080.000−0.0100
OsmandFW140.030.0000.0010
HatateMF130.000.0210.0111

Falkirk

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
BainGK900.000.0000.0452
AdamsRB900.030.5910.23711
AllanCB900.000.0000.03410
HendersonCB900.000.0100.0216
LissahLB620.000.0200.0335
TaitDM900.010.0110.0465
SpencerDM680.000.0100.0014
MillerRW620.000.010−0.0113
Arfield AM900.090.0910.0022
Ross LW460.040.000−0.0101
Samuel-OgunsuyiST620.290.0210.0101
WilliamsFW440.000.0500.0921
HartDF280.000.0000.0011
AgyemanFW280.000.0000.0121
GrahamFW280.020.0100.0101
CartwrightMF220.000.0000.0101

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Celtic

Saracchi and Kenny: 4 passesEngels and Forrest: 4 passesMcGregor and Forrest: 4 passesMcGregor and Tounekti: 4 passesNygren and Kenny: 4 passesSchmeichel and Ralston: 5 passesScales and Kenny: 5 passesTrusty and Engels: 5 passesEngels and McGregor: 5 passesSaracchi and Nygren: 6 passesMcGregor and Nygren: 7 passesSaracchi and McGregor: 8 passesSchmeichel and Saracchi: 9 passesTrusty and McGregor: 9 passesRalston and Forrest: 10 passesNygren and Tounekti: 10 passesScales and Tounekti: 11 passesRalston and Engels: 13 passesTrusty and Forrest: 13 passesScales and McGregor: 14 passesSchmeichel and Scales: 15 passesScales and Saracchi: 16 passesSchmeichel and Trusty: 18 passesRalston and Trusty: 18 passesScales and Trusty: 23 passesSaracchi and Tounekti: 26 passesSchmeichel: 28 completed passesRalston: 28 completed passesScales: 45 completed passesTrusty: 47 completed passesSaracchi: 42 completed passesEngels: 21 completed passesMcGregor: 32 completed passesForrest: 14 completed passesNygren: 16 completed passesTounekti: 27 completed passesKenny: 7 completed passes156563627424982324SchmeichelRalstonScalesTrustySaracchiEngelsMcGregorForrestNygrenTounektiKennyStarters until 61' · lines join pairs with 4+ passes

Falkirk

Bain and Samuel-Ogunsuyi: 3 passesAllan and Henderson: 3 passesAllan and Miller: 3 passesLissah and Spencer: 3 passesLissah and Ross: 3 passesSpencer and Arfield: 3 passesArfield and Samuel-Ogunsuyi: 3 passesBain and Spencer: 4 passesHenderson and Lissah: 4 passesHenderson and Spencer: 4 passesBain and Allan: 5 passesTait and Spencer: 6 passesBain and Henderson: 7 passesAdams and Spencer: 7 passesAdams and Miller: 8 passesAllan and Tait: 8 passesAdams and Tait: 10 passesAllan and Spencer: 10 passesAdams and Allan: 12 passesBain: 11 completed passesAdams: 22 completed passesAllan: 22 completed passesHenderson: 14 completed passesLissah: 7 completed passesTait: 14 completed passesSpencer: 25 completed passesMiller: 9 completed passesArfield: 9 completed passesRoss: 6 completed passesSamuel-Ogunsuyi: 4 completed passes1922052821829372347BainAdamsAllanHendersonLissahTaitSpencerMillerArfieldRossSamuel-OgunsuyiStarters until 46' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Celtic

FromToPasses
TrustyScales18
ScalesSaracchi17
ScalesTrusty17
SchmeichelTrusty16
SaracchiTounekti16

Falkirk

FromToPasses
AdamsAllan15
TaitAdams14
HendersonBain12
AllanBain12
BainHenderson9

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Celtic

1−2.12−2.67+2.13−1.23−2.96+0.33−3.38+0.28+0.30−4.73−0.67+4.34−1.85−2.16+1.21−2.77+3.44+0.94−2.13+1.31−1.41−0.73−0.69+6.70−1.30−0.70−0.70−0.33+2.08−5.4FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 9 matches

Falkirk

12+4.88+2.219+4.46+1.610+2.69+3.83−3.43−4.23−4.810+2.94−0.93+0.12−2.73−4.14−0.72−2.21−1.10−3.04−0.72−2.63+1.60−1.05+3.02−0.90−0.90−0.22+1.60−0.10−0.91−7.1FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 9 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Celtic

0.010.010.010.010.030.030.020.010.010.030.040.030.030.080.050.080.050.020.05−0.040.110.090.180.050.100.420.43LessMore

Falkirk

0.020.010.040.010.010.020.020.010.010.030.010.010.010.080.030.020.010.15LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.36AttackCeltic2.24 → 2.28Falkirk1.07 → 1.03Defence (lower is better)Celtic0.82 → 0.80Falkirk1.59 → 1.67

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Celtic
Title80%81%+1
Falkirk
Top six21%19%−2
11th16%16%0
Bottom11%12%+1
Dundee United
Top six47%47%0
11th4%4%0
Bottom1%2%+1
Hearts
Title17%16%−1

From the forecast before the match (29 October 2025): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

CelticFalkirk
Expected goals3.070.58
Win86%4%
Expected Points2.680.22
Clean sheet56%5%

Celtic 86%Draw 10%Falkirk 4%

Most likely score 3–0, 13%. Both sides score 42%.

Falkirk goalsCeltic goals0123456+0123456+3%1%8%5%1%7%2%7%2%6%2%6%3%1%5%3%12%13%10%

From the forecast as it stood on 29 October 2025: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowCeltic winDrawFalkirk win
Celtic
Title80%81%72%73%
Falkirk
Top six21%19%30%39%
11th16%16%11%9%
Bottom11%12%7%3%
Dundee United
Top six47%47%46%37%
11th4%4%4%6%
Bottom1%2%1%1%
Hearts
Title17%16%22%21%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Celtic

  1. L1–326 OctHearts (A)xG 0.88–1.57
  2. L0–219 OctDundee FC (A)xG 2.70–1.30
  3. W3–25 OctMotherwell (H)xG 2.62–1.39
  4. D0–027 SepHibernian (H)xG 2.80–0.70
  5. W2–114 SepKilmarnock (A)xG 2.83–1.66
  6. D0–031 AugRangers (A)xG 0.19–0.15

Falkirk

  1. W2–125 OctDundee FC (H)xG 1.08–1.21
  2. W2–118 OctMotherwell (A)xG 1.35–1.01
  3. D1–15 OctRangers (H)xG 1.43–1.09
  4. L0–327 SepHearts (A)xG 0.67–1.94
  5. D2–223 SepHibernian (H)xG 1.18–2.43
  6. L1–213 SepSt. Mirren (H)xG 0.70–1.57

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

CelticFalkirk
Position2nd6th
Played99
Won, drawn, lost5–⁠2–⁠23–⁠3–⁠3
Points17 (1.89 per game)12 (1.33 per game)
Expected Points per game2.031.16
Goals12–⁠812–⁠15
xG per game1.96–⁠0.871.16–⁠1.44
Home: points, xG per game2.50, 2.46–⁠0.641.20, 1.28–⁠1.50
Away: points, xG per game1.40, 1.55–⁠1.051.50, 1.02–⁠1.38
ManagerMartin O'Neill (0)John McGlynn (9)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.36AttackCeltic2.24, 1stFalkirk1.07, 10thDefence (lower is better)Celtic0.82, 1stFalkirk1.59, 10th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.02.5SepOctCeltic attack: 2.24Falkirk attack: 1.072.241.07FalkirkCelticDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.02.5SepOctCeltic defence: 0.82Falkirk defence: 1.591.590.82

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

CelticFalkirk
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play+97%−66%+5%−5%
Counter-attacks−32%−36%−74%+29%
Set pieces−27%−9%average+2%
Penalties+16%+16%−100%+16%
Headers+40%−11%−8%+4%
Left side+53%−76%−52%−17%
Centre+43%−30%+1%+7%
Right side+32%−48%+22%+7%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Celtic attacking

Celtic createdFalkirk concededLeft side+53%+7%Centre+43%+7%Right side+32%−17%Open play+97%−5%Counter-attacks−32%+29%Set pieces−27%+2%Headers+40%+4%

Falkirk attacking

Falkirk createdCeltic concededLeft side−52%−48%Centre+1%−30%Right side+22%−76%Open play+5%−66%Counter-attacks−74%−36%Set piecesaverage−9%Headers−8%−11%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

CelticFalkirk

1.96xG1.16
0.87xG against1.44
72%Possession53%
16.1Shots11.8
7.0Shots against13.2
5.2Shots on target4.6
3.8Big chances2.3
36.6Touches in the opposition box20.9
670Passes411
88%Pass accuracy76%
8.2Corners4.8
79%Field tilt54%
73.5Final-third entries37.5
22.2Box entries11.4
8.3Passes per defensive action12.3

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Celtic

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level591.750.66
Ahead162.041.13
Behind142.741.42

Falkirk

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level531.111.53
Ahead30.070.90
Behind341.341.36

xG by period

Celtic

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.150.051–1
16–300.320.022–1
31–450.340.240–2
46–600.250.242–3
61–750.320.073–0
76–900.580.244–1

Falkirk

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.140.160–0
16–300.200.390–5
31–450.220.391–5
46–600.200.183–1
61–750.220.175–2
76–900.180.163–2

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Celtic

GKRBCBCBLBCMCMCMRWSTLWSchmeichel 9Ralston 5Donovan 2Johnston 2Carter-Vickers 7Murray 2Scales 9Tierney 5Saracchi 3Inamura 1Nygren 4Engels 4McCowan 3McGregor 8Bernardo 1Hatate 7Nygren 3Yang 2Maeda 2Iheanacho 3Maeda 2Idah 2Tounekti 4Maeda 2Balikwisha 24-3-3 in every start

Falkirk

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTBain 9Adams 9Neilson 6Lissah 1Allan 1Henderson 9McCann 6Lissah 1Neilson 1Spencer 9Cartwright 4Tait 5Miller 3Wilson 3Arfield 2Tait 4Williams 3Ross 1Miller 6Williams 1Arfield 1MacIver 8Graham 14-2-3-1 in every start

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Key players

Celtic

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Nygren7627410.430.36
Maeda6536220.360.19
McGregor8752100.120.19
Hatate7515100.090.20

Falkirk

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
MacIver8629210.340.12
Miller9695110.250.17
Tait9730100.120.12
Spencer9810010.070.16

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.