Digressive Celts

Matches › 2023/24

Kilmarnock 0–0 Hearts

Saturday 27 April 2024, 15:00 · The BBSP Stadium Rugby Park · Round 34 · Half-time 0–0 · Referee Ross Hardie · Attendance 6,677

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

KilmarnockHearts
Goals00
xG0.891.95
Expected Points0.662.12

Kilmarnock 14%Draw 23%Hearts 63%

Most likely score 0–2, 12%. Final score 0–0, 5%.

Hearts goalsKilmarnock goals0123456+0123456+5%8%3%4%7%3%2%5%6%3%1%1%1%11%12%12%12%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

01230153045607590HTLyons on for Deas, 46'van Veen on for Vassell, Mackay-Steven on for Armstrong, and Watson on for Polworth, 77'Ndaba on for Wright, 82'Tait on for Baningime, 45+3'Forrest on for Vargas, 75'Denholm on for Devlin and McKay on for Grant, 82'Hearts 1.95Kilmarnock 0.8901230153045607590HTLyons on for Deas, 46'van Veen on for Vassell, Mackay-Steven on for Armstrong, and Watson on for Polworth, 77'Ndaba on for Wright, 82'Tait on for Baningime, 45+3'Forrest on for Vargas, 75'Denholm on for Devlin and McKay on for Grant, 82'1.950.89KilmarnockHearts

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

KilmarnockHearts

0.89 −0.43xG1.95 +0.58
0.25 −1.27xG on target2.36 +0.95
16 +3Shots14 0
2 −2.1Shots on target4 −0.5
0 −2.2Big chances3 +1.6
31 +8Touches in the opposition box25 −2
45% −2Possession55% −1
397 +64Passes501 +41
71% +7Pass accuracy77% +2
49% −1Field tilt51% −5
36 +3Final-third entries36 −7
11 −1Box entries14 0
21.6 +7Passes per defensive action16.5 +3
8 +1.8Corners4 −2.8
11 −3Tackles23 +8
5 −1.9Interceptions7 +0.8
24 +2Clearances33 +12
4 +1.1Saves2 −0.7
9 −3Fouls6 −4
2 +0.9Offsides2 +1.0

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Kilmarnock

Findlay 80', 0.20 xGWatkins 90+3', 0.12 xGDonnelly 81', 0.11 xGVassell 9', 0.08 xGDonnelly 81', 0.08 xGFindlay 2', 0.04 xGWatkins 43', 0.04 xGWatson 90+4', 0.04 xGKennedy 10', 0.03 xGKennedy 17', 0.03 xGDonnelly 52', 0.03 xGArmstrong 74', 0.03 xGVassell 69', 0.02 xGDonnelly 80', 0.02 xGPolworth 10', 0.01 xGKennedy 20', 0.01 xG22%0.20 xGSix-yard box: 1 shot, 0.20 xG, 0 goals47%0.42 xGCentral box: 5 shots, 0.42 xG, 0 goals6%0.05 xGWide in the box: 2 shots, 0.05 xG, 0 goals20%0.18 xGEdge of the box: 6 shots, 0.18 xG, 0 goals4%0.04 xGFurther out: 2 shots, 0.04 xG, 0 goals

Hearts

Grant 37', 0.38 xGGrant 64', 0.27 xGDevlin 39', 0.25 xGVargas 23', 0.21 xGKent 45+3', 0.13 xGGrant 64', 0.13 xGKent 89', 0.13 xGShankland 15', 0.12 xGKingsley 62', 0.08 xGGrant 59', 0.07 xGShankland 34', 0.05 xGKingsley 70', 0.05 xGDevlin 38', 0.04 xGShankland 65', 0.03 xG34%0.66 xGSix-yard box: 3 shots, 0.66 xG, 0 goals52%1.02 xGCentral box: 7 shots, 1.02 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGWide in the box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals10%0.20 xGEdge of the box: 3 shots, 0.20 xG, 0 goals4%0.08 xGFurther out: 1 shot, 0.08 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

KilmarnockHearts

0.40 9 shots, 0 goalsOpen play1.53 9 shots, 0 goals
0.49 7 shots, 0 goalsSet pieces0.42 5 shots, 0 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
97 min (100%) · Kilmarnock 0.89, Hearts 1.95 xG

Line-ups

14517611223110923DennisWrightMayoFindlayDeasArmstrongDonnellyPolworthKennedyVassellWatkinsYellow cardYellow cardYellow cardYellow card82'46'77'77'77'Kilmarnock 4-4-2Derek McInnes28321581146719779ClarkKingsleyKentRowlesLembikisaDevlinBaningimeGrantCochraneVargasShankland82'45+3'82'75'Hearts 3-5-2Steven Naismith

Kilmarnock substitutes

  • 46' Lyons for Deas
  • 77' Watson for Polworth
  • 77' Mackay-Steven for Armstrong
  • 77' van Veen for Vassell
  • 82' Ndaba for Wright

Hearts substitutes

  • 45+3' Tait for Baningime
  • 75' Forrest for Vargas
  • 82' Denholm for Devlin
  • 82' McKay for Grant

Players

Kilmarnock

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
DennisGK900.000.0000.0341
Wright RB820.000.0110.0674
Mayo CB900.000.0000.0579
Findlay CB900.240.0100.1537
DeasLB460.000.0000.0223
ArmstrongRM770.030.1010.2142
Donnelly CM900.230.0200.0342
PolworthCM770.010.0410.0661
KennedyLM900.080.1630.2042
VassellST770.100.0210.0224
WatkinsST900.160.0720.0323
LyonsMF440.000.010−0.0224
WatsonMF130.040.0900.0320
Mackay-StevenFW130.000.0500.0911
van VeenFW130.000.0820.0000
NdabaDF80.000.0000.0240

Hearts

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
ClarkGK900.000.0000.0113
KingsleyCB900.130.1310.14107
KentCB900.260.040−0.04611
RowlesCB900.000.0700.191512
LembikisaRWB900.000.0200.04811
DevlinCM820.300.021−0.0226
BaningimeCM450.000.0100.0135
GrantCM820.850.1920.0834
CochraneLWB900.000.1110.1083
VargasST750.210.0510.0020
ShanklandST900.200.8220.2665
TaitMF450.000.020−0.0122
ForrestMF150.000.000−0.0101
DenholmMF80.000.0000.0111
McKayFW80.000.1410.0000

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Kilmarnock

Dennis and Vassell: 3 passesFindlay and Deas: 3 passesDeas and Vassell: 3 passesPolworth and Kennedy: 3 passesPolworth and Watkins: 3 passesKennedy and Vassell: 3 passesDennis and Deas: 4 passesMayo and Polworth: 4 passesArmstrong and Donnelly: 4 passesPolworth and Donnelly: 4 passesPolworth and Vassell: 4 passesKennedy and Watkins: 4 passesDeas and Polworth: 5 passesWright and Mayo: 6 passesWright and Donnelly: 6 passesMayo and Donnelly: 6 passesDeas and Kennedy: 6 passesArmstrong and Kennedy: 6 passesDennis and Wright: 7 passesWright and Polworth: 7 passesWright and Armstrong: 8 passesDennis: 12 completed passesWright: 21 completed passesMayo: 17 completed passesFindlay: 10 completed passesDeas: 16 completed passesArmstrong: 6 completed passesPolworth: 16 completed passesDonnelly: 12 completed passesKennedy: 15 completed passesWatkins: 6 completed passesVassell: 8 completed passes14517611312210239DennisWrightMayoFindlayDeasArmstrongPolworthDonnellyKennedyWatkinsVassellStarters until 46' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Hearts

Clark and Kent: 4 passesClark and Lembikisa: 4 passesLembikisa and Devlin: 4 passesCochrane and Baningime: 4 passesCochrane and Shankland: 4 passesBaningime and Shankland: 4 passesGrant and Shankland: 4 passesVargas and Shankland: 4 passesRowles and Grant: 5 passesKent and Baningime: 5 passesClark and Rowles: 6 passesRowles and Vargas: 6 passesCochrane and Vargas: 6 passesDevlin and Grant: 6 passesRowles and Kingsley: 7 passesRowles and Baningime: 7 passesRowles and Shankland: 7 passesBaningime and Grant: 7 passesKingsley and Lembikisa: 8 passesCochrane and Grant: 8 passesDevlin and Baningime: 8 passesRowles and Cochrane: 9 passesKingsley and Devlin: 12 passesKent and Grant: 15 passesKent and Kingsley: 16 passesRowles and Kent: 18 passesClark: 9 completed passesRowles: 33 completed passesKent: 35 completed passesKingsley: 27 completed passesLembikisa: 12 completed passesCochrane: 23 completed passesDevlin: 17 completed passesBaningime: 24 completed passesGrant: 27 completed passesVargas: 7 completed passesShankland: 13 completed passes28152381191467779ClarkRowlesKentKingsleyLembikisaCochraneDevlinBaningimeGrantVargasShanklandStarters until 45+3' · lines join pairs with 4+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Kilmarnock

FromToPasses
WrightArmstrong14
MayoWright7
DennisWright7
PolworthKennedy6
KennedyFindlay5

Hearts

FromToPasses
KingsleyKent18
KentRowles15
RowlesKent12
KentKingsley11
KingsleyRowles11

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Kilmarnock

5+0.74−3.217+5.26−2.02−2.44−3.05−2.28+1.86+0.25−1.910+3.95+0.26+2.33−1.42−3.15−0.36+2.56+3.44+0.71−3.62−0.93+1.21+0.30−1.61−1.50−0.80−0.42+1.21+0.80−0.6FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 33 matches

Hearts

4−1.28+0.728+12.87+0.64−0.46−1.52−3.54−0.312+5.59+2.511+5.71−4.18+3.35−0.46+0.45+1.32−1.72−0.96+2.71−3.51−0.91−0.63+1.90−1.12−0.10−0.80−0.71+0.40−0.72+1.3FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 33 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Kilmarnock

0.010.010.020.010.020.010.010.010.030.030.010.020.020.100.020.020.020.020.040.040.030.010.110.06−0.020.060.25LessMore

Hearts

0.010.010.010.030.050.030.030.030.040.050.030.040.02−0.030.070.040.120.06−0.070.010.02−0.150.040.040.20LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.30AttackKilmarnock1.30 → 1.26Hearts1.41 → 1.41Defence (lower is better)Kilmarnock1.15 → 1.17Hearts1.21 → 1.19

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

KilmarnockHearts
Expected goals1.451.11
Win44%28%
Expected Points1.601.13
Clean sheet33%24%

Kilmarnock 44%Draw 27%Hearts 28%

Most likely score 1–1, 13%. Both sides score 52%.

Hearts goalsKilmarnock goals0123456+0123456+8%8%5%2%7%3%8%9%5%2%4%4%2%1%2%11%13%

From the forecast as it stood on 27 April 2024: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

Form

Kilmarnock

  1. W2–013 AprSt. Johnstone (A)xG 3.51–1.22
  2. W1–06 AprRoss County (H)xG 0.98–0.47
  3. D1–130 MarHearts (A)xG 1.55–1.61
  4. W5–216 MarSt. Mirren (H)xG 1.91–0.74
  5. D2–22 MarDundee FC (A)xG 1.56–1.53
  6. L1–228 FebRangers (H)xG 1.36–0.73

Hearts

  1. W4–213 AprLivingston (H)xG 3.81–0.97
  2. W2–16 AprSt. Mirren (A)xG 2.37–0.89
  3. D1–130 MarKilmarnock (H)xG 1.61–1.55
  4. L1–216 MarRoss County (A)xG 1.27–1.74
  5. W2–03 MarCeltic (H)xG 1.65–2.45
  6. D1–128 FebHibernian (H)xG 1.70–2.66

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

KilmarnockHearts
Position4th3rd
Played3333
Won, drawn, lost13–⁠12–⁠819–⁠5–⁠9
Points51 (1.55 per game)62 (1.88 per game)
Expected Points per game1.471.39
Goals43–⁠3446–⁠34
xG per game1.32–⁠1.111.37–⁠1.43
Home: points, xG per game2.00, 1.32–⁠0.871.88, 1.58–⁠1.37
Away: points, xG per game1.06, 1.31–⁠1.361.88, 1.15–⁠1.49
ManagerDerek McInnes (71)Steven Naismith (29)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.30AttackKilmarnock1.30, 4thHearts1.41, 3rdDefence (lower is better)Kilmarnock1.15, 3rdHearts1.21, 4th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovDecJanFebMarAprKilmarnock attack: 1.30Hearts attack: 1.411.411.30HeartsKilmarnockDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovDecJanFebMarAprKilmarnock defence: 1.15Hearts defence: 1.211.211.15

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

KilmarnockHearts
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−15%−23%−3%+3%
Counter-attacks+1%+4%−3%−32%
Set pieces+30%−5%−10%+17%
Penalties−25%−40%+35%+5%
Headers+32%−20%−22%+14%
Left sideaverage−29%−6%−14%
Centre−2%−14%−9%+5%
Right side−1%−8%+5%+20%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Kilmarnock attacking

Kilmarnock createdHearts concededLeft sideaverage+20%Centre−2%+5%Right side−1%−14%Open play−15%+3%Counter-attacks+1%−32%Set pieces+30%+17%Headers+32%+14%

Hearts attacking

Hearts createdKilmarnock concededLeft side−6%−8%Centre−9%−14%Right side+5%−29%Open play−3%−23%Counter-attacks−3%+4%Set pieces−10%−5%Headers−22%−20%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

KilmarnockHearts

1.32xG1.37
1.11xG against1.43
47%Possession56%
13.1Shots13.6
12.1Shots against13.2
4.1Shots on target4.5
2.2Big chances1.4
22.6Touches in the opposition box26.5
333Passes460
64%Pass accuracy76%
6.2Corners6.8
50%Field tilt56%
33.2Final-third entries42.7
12.1Box entries13.5
14.5Passes per defensive action13.6

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Kilmarnock

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level451.101.04
Ahead211.501.21
Behind241.571.15

Hearts

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level431.341.29
Ahead281.141.62
Behind191.801.45

xG by period

Kilmarnock

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.130.154–5
16–300.200.137–4
31–450.230.234–11
46–600.240.086–5
61–750.210.2311–4
76–900.310.3011–5

Hearts

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.140.214–4
16–300.170.236–6
31–450.240.227–5
46–600.210.278–6
61–750.330.1611–7
76–900.280.3310–6

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Kilmarnock

GKCBCBCBRWBCMCMCMLWBSTSTDennis 32O'Hara 1Mayo 31Watson 1Wright 23Deas 13Findlay 31Armstro… 32ArmstrongMayo 1Watson 21Davies 2Watkins 1Polworth 16Deas 6Ndaba 6Lyons 20Donnelly 14Magennis 7Kennedy 21Ndaba 9Donnelly 1Watkins 28Kennedy 4Vassell 28Ndaba 2Findlay 13-5-2 in 13 of 33 starts

Formations: 3-5-2 (13), 4-4-2 (12), 4-1-4-1 (2), 3-4-1-2 (1), 4-5-1 (1), 4-2-3-1 (1), 3-4-3 (1), 3-1-4-2 (1), 5-3-2 (1)

Hearts

GKCBCBCBRWBCMCMCMLWBSTSTClark 32Gordon 1Kingsley 19Atkinson 7Sibbick 7Kent 31Halkett 4Rowles 26Oda 8Atkinson 7Forrest 5Nieuwen… 21NieuwenhofDevlin 10Denholm 6Baningime 21Fraser 3Boyce 3Grant 13Lowry 7Haring 5Cochrane 17Forrest 7Vargas 3Shankland 30Cochrane 8Vargas 7Forrest 63-5-2 in 17 of 33 starts

Formations: 3-5-2 (17), 4-2-3-1 (14), 3-4-2-1 (1), 4-3-3 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
30 March 2024Hearts1–1KilmarnockxG 1.61–1.55
2 December 2023Kilmarnock0–1HeartsxG 1.16–0.73
13 August 2023Hearts0–0KilmarnockxG 0.39–0.73
1 April 2023Kilmarnock2–1HeartsxG 2.72–0.68
17 December 2022Hearts3–1KilmarnockxG 2.40–1.09
9 October 2022Kilmarnock2–2HeartsxG 1.68–1.17

6 league meetings since 2020/21: Kilmarnock won 1, Hearts won 2, and 3 were drawn. Goals 6–8 and xG 1.49–1.16 per game.

Key players

Kilmarnock

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Armstrong332,7786100.260.30
Kennedy262,413330.180.16
Vassell282,328830.260.06
Watkins292,397910.260.04

Hearts

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Shankland322,8692140.480.17
Boyce7631130.360.20
Grant131,229440.360.16
Forrest181,789350.250.10

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.