Digressive Celts

Matches › 2025/26

Falkirk 3–1 Kilmarnock

Saturday 1 November 2025, 15:00 · Falkirk Stadium · Round 11 · Half-time 3–0 · Referee David Dickinson · Attendance 7,461

Falkirk Williams 9', MacIver 22', Miller 38'

Kilmarnock John-Jules 69'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

FalkirkKilmarnock
Goals31
xG2.080.43
Expected Points2.710.18

Falkirk 86%Draw 11%Kilmarnock 2%

Most likely score 2–0, 30%. Final score 3–1, 7%.

Kilmarnock goalsFalkirk goals0123456+0123456+15%8%1%14%3%14%7%1%3%1%30%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

01230153045607590HTGraham on for MacIver, 32'Agyeman on for Williams and Ross on for Wilson, 70'Arfield on for Cartwright and Tait on for Miller, 77'John-Jules on for Brannan, Brown on for McKenzie, and Lowery on for Dackers, 46'Kiltie on for Deas, 86'Williams 9'MacIver 22'Miller 38'John-Jules 69'Falkirk 2.08Kilmarnock 0.4301230153045607590HTGraham on for MacIver, 32'Agyeman on for Williams and Ross on for Wilson, 70'Arfield on for Cartwright and Tait on for Miller, 77'John-Jules on for Brannan, Brown on for McKenzie, and Lowery on for Dackers, 46'Kiltie on for Deas, 86'Williams 9'MacIver 22'Miller 38'John-Jules 69'2.080.43FalkirkKilmarnock

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

FalkirkKilmarnock

2.08 +0.99xG0.43 −0.80
2.23 +1.08xG on target0.78 −0.50
12 +1Shots9 −1
7 +2.5Shots on target5 +1.2
3 +0.9Big chances0 −2.1
10 −10Touches in the opposition box16 −2
48% −4Possession52% +14
356 −47Passes362 +54
74% −3Pass accuracy72% +2
39% −12Field tilt61% +28
29 −7Final-third entries45 +18
8 −2.9Box entries9 +0.4
11.4 −2Passes per defensive action9.1 −7
2 −2.6Corners6 +1.4
23 +5Tackles12 −5
10 +2.4Interceptions9 −0.3
40 +10Clearances22 −14
4 +0.1Saves4 +1.1
15 +3Fouls14 +1
1 −1.8Offsides3 +1.7

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Falkirk

Wilson 6', 0.09 xGGraham 81', 0.07 xGAdams 34', 0.04 xGWilliams 37', 0.04 xGMiller 2', 0.03 xGMacIver 17', 0.03 xGMiller 63', 0.03 xGWilson 22', 0.02 xGWilliams 45+3', 0.01 xGWilliams 7', 0.95 xG, goalMacIver 22', 0.60 xG, goalMiller 38', 0.18 xG, goal0%0.00 xGSix-yard box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals78%1.61 xGCentral box: 3 shots, 1.61 xG, 2 goals16%0.33 xGWide in the box: 4 shots, 0.33 xG, 1 goal5%0.10 xGEdge of the box: 4 shots, 0.10 xG, 0 goals1%0.03 xGFurther out: 1 shot, 0.03 xG, 0 goals

Kilmarnock

Deas 53', 0.08 xGThompson 57', 0.05 xGDeas 64', 0.05 xGJohn-Jules 52', 0.04 xGAnderson 3', 0.02 xGTiffoney 13', 0.02 xGStanger 31', 0.02 xGWatson 21', 0.01 xGJohn-Jules 69', 0.14 xG, goal0%0.00 xGSix-yard box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals69%0.29 xGCentral box: 4 shots, 0.29 xG, 1 goal29%0.12 xGWide in the box: 4 shots, 0.12 xG, 0 goals2%0.01 xGEdge of the box: 1 shot, 0.01 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

FalkirkKilmarnock

1.01 9 shots, 2 goalsOpen play0.23 5 shots, 1 goal
1.07 3 shots, 1 goalCounter-attacks0.05 1 shot, 0 goals
0.00 0 shots, 0 goalsSet pieces0.15 3 shots, 0 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
9 min (10%) · Falkirk 1.06, Kilmarnock 0.02 xG
Falkirk ahead
84 min (90%) · Falkirk 1.02, Kilmarnock 0.41 xG

Line-ups

192205281782229249BainAdamsAllanHendersonLissahCartwrightSpencerWilsonMillerWilliamsMacIverGoalGoalGoal77'70'77'70'32'Falkirk 4-2-3-1John McGlynn20261463127817919OluwayemiBrannanStangerDeasThompsonWatsonMcKenzieLyonsTiffoneyDackersAnderson46'86'46'46'Kilmarnock 4-3-1-2Stuart Kettlewell

Falkirk substitutes

  • 32' Graham for MacIver
  • 70' Agyeman for Williams
  • 70' Ross for Wilson
  • 77' Tait for Miller
  • 77' Arfield for Cartwright

Kilmarnock substitutes

  • 46' Brown for McKenzie
  • 46' Lowery for Dackers
  • 46' John-Jules for Brannan · yellow card 49', goal 69'
  • 86' Kiltie for Deas

Players

Falkirk

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
BainGK900.000.0000.0320
AdamsRB900.040.0010.05511
AllanCB900.000.0000.0358
HendersonCB900.000.0010.05515
LissahLB900.000.0100.03412
CartwrightDM770.000.0010.0353
SpencerDM900.000.0110.03311
WilsonRW700.110.0100.0642
MillerAM77110.240.4420.2244
WilliamsLW70111.000.1520.0662
MacIverST3210.630.0610.0111
GrahamFW580.070.000−0.0102
AgyemanFW200.000.0000.0014
RossFW200.000.0000.0110
TaitMF130.000.0310.0820
ArfieldMF130.000.0000.0000

Kilmarnock

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
OluwayemiGK900.000.0100.0852
BrannanRB460.000.0310.0912
StangerCB900.020.0100.0667
DeasCB860.130.0110.11117
ThompsonLB900.050.1320.1469
WatsonCM900.010.030−0.0224
McKenzieCM460.000.0100.0001
LyonsCM900.000.0100.0558
TiffoneyAM9010.020.1420.1470
DackersST460.000.000−0.0111
AndersonST900.020.0100.0100
BrownMF440.000.0100.0431
LoweryMF440.000.000−0.0102
John-Jules FW4410.180.010−0.0210
KiltieMF40.000.0000.0000

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Falkirk

Adams and Wilson: 3 passesAllan and Spencer: 3 passesAllan and Wilson: 3 passesCartwright and Wilson: 3 passesWilson and Miller: 3 passesWilson and Williams: 3 passesBain and Adams: 4 passesBain and Allan: 4 passesAdams and Cartwright: 4 passesHenderson and Spencer: 4 passesHenderson and Williams: 4 passesCartwright and Williams: 4 passesBain and Lissah: 5 passesLissah and Williams: 7 passesBain and Henderson: 9 passesAdams and Allan: 11 passesAllan and Henderson: 13 passesHenderson and Lissah: 17 passesBain: 15 completed passesAdams: 13 completed passesAllan: 19 completed passesHenderson: 27 completed passesLissah: 16 completed passesSpencer: 9 completed passesCartwright: 12 completed passesWilson: 8 completed passesMiller: 4 completed passesWilliams: 11 completed passesMacIver: 4 completed passes192205288172229249BainAdamsAllanHendersonLissahSpencerCartwrightWilsonMillerWilliamsMacIverStarters until 32' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Kilmarnock

Oluwayemi and Stanger: 3 passesOluwayemi and Thompson: 3 passesBrannan and Thompson: 3 passesDeas and McKenzie: 3 passesThompson and Tiffoney: 3 passesAnderson and Dackers: 3 passesOluwayemi and Lyons: 4 passesBrannan and Stanger: 4 passesBrannan and Lyons: 4 passesDeas and Tiffoney: 4 passesLyons and Tiffoney: 4 passesLyons and Watson: 4 passesOluwayemi and Deas: 5 passesBrannan and Tiffoney: 5 passesThompson and Lyons: 5 passesThompson and McKenzie: 5 passesLyons and McKenzie: 5 passesOluwayemi and Dackers: 6 passesMcKenzie and Watson: 6 passesBrannan and Watson: 7 passesDeas and Thompson: 8 passesStanger and Lyons: 9 passesOluwayemi: 16 completed passesBrannan: 17 completed passesStanger: 12 completed passesDeas: 15 completed passesThompson: 15 completed passesLyons: 23 completed passesTiffoney: 10 completed passesMcKenzie: 11 completed passesWatson: 11 completed passesAnderson: 2 completed passesDackers: 8 completed passes20261463817712199OluwayemiBrannanStangerDeasThompsonLyonsTiffoneyMcKenzieWatsonAndersonDackersStarters until 46' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Falkirk

FromToPasses
LissahHenderson17
HendersonAllan14
AdamsAllan11
HendersonLissah11
BainGraham8

Kilmarnock

FromToPasses
LyonsStanger13
DeasThompson10
ThompsonTiffoney9
StangerLyons8
ThompsonDeas7

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Falkirk

8+0.311+5.016+1.08+0.610+5.49+1.39+3.49+2.98+1.214+6.77−0.42−2.80−2.94−0.47+0.32−2.640.04+2.02−0.72−2.63−1.33+1.42+1.11−1.31−1.81+0.20−0.20−0.60−0.10−0.8FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 10 matches

Kilmarnock

3−4.36−3.04−2.82−1.66−1.56−1.75−2.58−1.15+0.25−0.84−1.55+1.611+6.64−1.44−1.03−1.52−0.81−2.13+0.35+2.24+2.11−1.02+0.47+5.82+1.12+1.61−0.10−0.50−0.97−9.1FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 10 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Falkirk

0.010.020.010.010.010.030.020.040.020.010.010.050.010.020.030.020.070.030.030.030.020.17LessMore

Kilmarnock

0.020.050.020.020.040.040.030.030.010.070.020.020.010.050.010.02−0.050.030.060.06−0.02−0.010.11LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.36AttackFalkirk1.03 → 1.11Kilmarnock1.22 → 1.18Defence (lower is better)Falkirk1.67 → 1.58Kilmarnock1.42 → 1.48

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Falkirk
Top six13%21%+8
11th19%15%−4
Bottom17%10%−7
Kilmarnock
Top six30%21%−9
11th8%11%+3
Bottom3%5%+2
Dundee United
Top six38%39%+1
Bottom2%3%+1
Dundee FC
11th27%28%+1
Bottom26%28%+2

From the forecast before the match (1 November 2025): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

FalkirkKilmarnock
Expected goals1.271.34
Win35%38%
Expected Points1.311.41
Clean sheet26%28%

Falkirk 35%Draw 28%Kilmarnock 38%

Most likely score 1–1, 13%. Both sides score 54%.

Kilmarnock goalsFalkirk goals0123456+0123456+8%9%7%3%1%9%8%4%1%6%8%5%2%3%3%2%1%1%13%

From the forecast as it stood on 1 November 2025: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowFalkirk winDrawKilmarnock win
Falkirk
Top six13%21%12%7%
11th19%15%19%24%
Bottom17%10%17%22%
Kilmarnock
Top six30%21%28%40%
11th8%11%8%5%
Bottom3%5%4%2%
Dundee United
Top six38%39%40%36%
Bottom2%3%2%2%
Dundee FC
11th27%28%28%26%
Bottom26%28%26%25%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Falkirk

  1. L0–429 OctCeltic (A)xG 0.47–4.29
  2. W2–125 OctDundee FC (H)xG 1.08–1.21
  3. W2–118 OctMotherwell (A)xG 1.35–1.01
  4. D1–15 OctRangers (H)xG 1.43–1.09
  5. L0–327 SepHearts (A)xG 0.67–1.94
  6. D2–223 SepHibernian (H)xG 1.18–2.43

Kilmarnock

  1. L0–129 OctAberdeen (H)xG 1.36–0.55
  2. L1–326 OctRangers (A)xG 1.04–1.36
  3. L0–318 OctHearts (H)xG 0.43–2.88
  4. W2–04 OctSt. Mirren (H)xG 2.15–0.43
  5. W2–027 SepDundee United (A)xG 1.49–2.21
  6. L1–214 SepCeltic (H)xG 1.66–2.83

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

FalkirkKilmarnock
Position7th8th
Played1010
Won, drawn, lost3–⁠3–⁠42–⁠4–⁠4
Points12 (1.20 per game)10 (1.00 per game)
Expected Points per game1.051.19
Goals12–⁠1912–⁠15
xG per game1.09–⁠1.731.23–⁠1.59
Home: points, xG per game1.20, 1.28–⁠1.500.83, 1.27–⁠1.46
Away: points, xG per game1.20, 0.91–⁠1.961.25, 1.17–⁠1.78
ManagerJohn McGlynn (10)Stuart Kettlewell (10)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.36AttackFalkirk1.03, 11thKilmarnock1.22, 7thDefence (lower is better)Falkirk1.67, 10thKilmarnock1.42, 7th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0SepOctFalkirk attack: 1.03Kilmarnock attack: 1.221.221.03KilmarnockFalkirkDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0SepOctFalkirk defence: 1.67Kilmarnock defence: 1.421.671.42

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

FalkirkKilmarnock
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−4%+28%−30%−5%
Counter-attacks−76%+59%+16%+24%
Set pieces−1%+6%+46%+27%
Penalties−100%+9%−100%+64%
Headers−10%+30%+26%+30%
Left side−54%−10%−50%+15%
Centre−7%+36%+31%+2%
Right side+18%+34%−32%+16%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Falkirk attacking

Falkirk createdKilmarnock concededLeft side−54%+16%Centre−7%+2%Right side+18%+15%Open play−4%−5%Counter-attacks−76%+24%Set pieces−1%+27%Headers−10%+30%

Kilmarnock attacking

Kilmarnock createdFalkirk concededLeft side−50%+34%Centre+31%+36%Right side−32%−10%Open play−30%+28%Counter-attacks+16%+59%Set pieces+46%+6%Headers+26%+30%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

FalkirkKilmarnock

1.09xG1.23
1.73xG against1.59
52%Possession38%
11.4Shots10.4
14.5Shots against13.4
4.5Shots on target3.8
2.1Big chances2.1
20.1Touches in the opposition box18.5
403Passes308
76%Pass accuracy71%
4.6Corners4.6
51%Field tilt33%
35.9Final-third entries26.7
10.9Box entries8.6
12.9Passes per defensive action15.8

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Falkirk

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level501.061.71
Ahead30.070.90
Behind371.221.82

Kilmarnock

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level421.061.22
Ahead201.352.24
Behind281.401.68

xG by period

Falkirk

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.130.170–0
16–300.190.480–6
31–450.210.461–6
46–600.200.253–2
61–750.200.215–3
76–900.170.173–2

Kilmarnock

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.060.150–1
16–300.200.273–4
31–450.280.265–1
46–600.170.182–3
61–750.150.310–4
76–900.360.422–2

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Falkirk

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTBain 10Adams 10Neilson 6Allan 2Lissah 1Henderson 10McCann 6Lissah 2Neilson 1Spencer 10Cartwright 4Tait 6Miller 4Wilson 3Arfield 2Tait 4Williams 3Ross 1Miller 6Ross 2Arfield 1MacIver 8Samuel-Ogunsuyi 1Graham 14-2-3-1 in every start

Kilmarnock

GKCBCBCBRWBCMCMCMLWBSTSTStryjek 7Beach 2Oluwayemi 1Stanger 8Schilte-Brown 2Lyons 1Mayo 9Deas 9Williams 1Brandon 4Brown 4Brannan 2Watson 10McKenzie 2Polworth 9Lyons 4Kiltie 4Lowery 1Thompson 7Brannan 3Dackers 9Daniels 4Anderson 5Kiltie 23-5-2 in 4 of 10 starts

Formations: 3-5-2 (4), 5-3-2 (3), 3-1-4-2 (1), 5-4-1 (1), 3-4-1-2 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Key players

Falkirk

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
MacIver8629210.340.12
Miller10757110.230.16
Tait10820100.110.11
Spencer10878010.060.15

Kilmarnock

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Dackers9817100.240.14
Watson10875310.280.06
Kiltie6516020.050.28
Anderson5469100.270.03

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.