Digressive Celts

Matches › 2025/26

Dundee United 3–1 St. Mirren

Saturday 25 October 2025, 15:00 · CalForth Construction Arena at Tannadice Park · Round 9 · Half-time 1–1 · Referee John Beaton · Attendance 8,843

Dundee United Sapsford 42', Fatah 84' (pen), Sibbald 90'

St. Mirren Nlundulu 18' · Gogic sent off 83'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

Dundee UnitedSt. Mirren
Goals31
xG2.212.28
Non-penalty xG1.422.28
Expected Points1.341.40

Dundee United 36%Draw 26%St. Mirren 38%

Most likely score 2–2, 12%. Final score 3–1, 6%.

St. Mirren goalsDundee United goals0123456+0123456+1%1%6%7%5%2%2%8%8%4%1%1%6%8%6%3%1%2%3%2%1%12%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

01230153045607590HTGogic (St. Mirren), red card 83'Trapanovski on for Stephenson, 67'Naamo on for Iovu, 73'Fatah on for Sapsford, 77'Stirton on for Möller, 90+1'Mandron on for Ayunga, 70'King on for McMenamin, Taylor on for O'Hara, and Calvin on for Nlundulu, 85'Sapsford 42'Fatah 84' (pen)Sibbald 90'Nlundulu 18'St. Mirren 2.28Dundee United 2.2101230153045607590HTGogic (St. Mirren), red card 83'Trapanovski on for Stephenson, 67'Naamo on for Iovu, 73'Fatah on for Sapsford, 77'Stirton on for Möller, 90+1'Mandron on for Ayunga, 70'King on for McMenamin, Taylor on for O'Hara, and Calvin on for Nlundulu, 85'Sapsford 42'Fatah 84' (pen)Sibbald 90'Nlundulu 18'2.282.21Dundee UnitedSt. Mirren

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

Dundee UnitedSt. Mirren

2.21 +0.81xG2.28 +1.45
1.42Non-penalty xG2.28
2.01 +0.18xG on target1.32 +0.51
13 −0.6Shots23 +13.5
5 −0.8Shots on target3 0.0
2 −0.4Big chances2 +0.6
24 0Touches in the opposition box35 +14
45% +2Possession55% +13
284 −45Passes327 −7
65% −8Pass accuracy69% −4
21% −20Field tilt79% +34
22 −11Final-third entries33 −2
7 −6Box entries17 +6
13.9 0Passes per defensive action16.3 −2
4 −0.8Corners12 +6.6
12 −8Tackles8 −5
10 +1.8Interceptions4 −3.9
54 +17Clearances21 −10
3 −0.9Saves2 −1.4
7 −6Fouls10 −3
3 +0.8Offsides1 −1.2

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Dundee United

Camara 47', 0.54 xGSapsford 8', 0.15 xGEsselink 68', 0.15 xGSevelj 33', 0.12 xGMöller 62', 0.11 xGIovu 54', 0.06 xGEsselink 54', 0.04 xGCamara 32', 0.02 xGCamara 68', 0.02 xGTrapanovski 90+3', 0.02 xGSapsford 42', 0.14 xG, goalSibbald 90', 0.05 xG, goal19%0.27 xGSix-yard box: 2 shots, 0.27 xG, 0 goals51%0.73 xGCentral box: 3 shots, 0.73 xG, 0 goals9%0.13 xGWide in the box: 2 shots, 0.13 xG, 0 goals20%0.29 xGEdge of the box: 5 shots, 0.29 xG, 2 goals0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

St. Mirren

Ayunga 59', 0.22 xGNlundulu 40', 0.19 xGNlundulu 56', 0.15 xGMcMenamin 38', 0.14 xGFraser 56', 0.14 xGNlundulu 44', 0.11 xGMcMenamin 50', 0.10 xGNlundulu 25', 0.09 xGNlundulu 11', 0.07 xGNlundulu 44', 0.06 xGPhillips 61', 0.05 xGPhillips 2', 0.04 xGNlundulu 36', 0.04 xGBaccus 61', 0.04 xGAyunga 67', 0.04 xGNlundulu 20', 0.03 xGNlundulu 58', 0.03 xGBaccus 72', 0.03 xGGogic 35', 0.01 xGAyunga 48', 0.01 xGBaccus 64', 0.01 xGBaccus 88', 0.01 xGNlundulu 18', 0.66 xG, goal43%0.98 xGSix-yard box: 3 shots, 0.98 xG, 1 goal41%0.94 xGCentral box: 11 shots, 0.94 xG, 0 goals8%0.18 xGWide in the box: 3 shots, 0.18 xG, 0 goals8%0.18 xGEdge of the box: 6 shots, 0.18 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

Dundee UnitedSt. Mirren

0.45 6 shots, 1 goalOpen play1.41 12 shots, 1 goal
0.65 2 shots, 0 goalsCounter-attacks0.00 0 shots, 0 goals
0.32 4 shots, 1 goalSet pieces0.87 11 shots, 0 goals
0.79 1 shot, 1 goalPenalties0.00 0 shots, 0 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
60 min (65%) · Dundee United 1.85, St. Mirren 1.77 xG
Dundee United ahead
9 min (10%) · Dundee United 0.07, St. Mirren 0.01 xG
St. Mirren ahead
24 min (26%) · Dundee United 0.28, St. Mirren 0.49 xG

Line-ups

1432321581411977KucherenkoIovuEsselinkKeresztesStephensonSeveljCamaraSibbaldFerrySapsfordMöllerGoalYellow cardGoal73'67'77'90+1'Dundee United 3-5-2Jim Goodwin11321221068825241114GeorgeGogicFreckletonFraserMcMenaminO'HaraPhillipsBaccusJohnAyungaNlunduluYellow cardSent offGoal85'85'70'85'St. Mirren 3-5-2Stephen Robinson

Dundee United substitutes

  • 67' Trapanovski for Stephenson
  • 73' Naamo for Iovu
  • 77' Fatah for Sapsford · goal 84' (pen)
  • 90+1' Stirton for Möller

St. Mirren substitutes

  • 70' Mandron for Ayunga
  • 85' Calvin for Nlundulu
  • 85' King for McMenamin
  • 85' Taylor for O'Hara

Players

Dundee United

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
KucherenkoGK900.000.0000.0112
IovuCB730.060.0010.02315
EsselinkCB900.190.0400.09211
KeresztesCB900.000.0000.04415
StephensonRWB670.000.0600.0719
SeveljCM900.120.0100.0136
CamaraCM900.580.0410.0871
Sibbald CM9010.050.3220.0745
FerryLWB900.000.1910.17312
SapsfordST7710.290.1320.0721
MöllerST9010.110.0210.0323
TrapanovskiFW230.020.0000.0320
NaamoDF170.000.0000.0010
FatahFW1310.790.0000.0312
StirtonFW00.000.000––0

St. Mirren

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
George GK900.000.0300.0442
Gogic CB830.010.0010.0325
FreckletonCB900.000.2940.5292
FraserCB900.140.0210.0962
McMenaminRWB850.240.4830.2672
O'HaraCM850.000.2730.0633
PhillipsCM900.090.2610.2595
BaccusCM900.110.0910.0157
JohnLWB900.000.2730.32103
AyungaST700.270.060−0.0521
NlunduluST8511.420.021−0.0811
MandronFW200.000.000−0.0300
CalvinDF50.000.000−0.0200
KingDF50.000.0000.0100
TaylorMF50.000.010−0.0111

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Dundee United

Stephenson and Camara: 3 passesFerry and Sevelj: 3 passesFerry and Sibbald: 3 passesSibbald and Sapsford: 3 passesIovu and Camara: 4 passesSibbald and Möller: 4 passesKucherenko and Iovu: 5 passesIovu and Sevelj: 5 passesStephenson and Sibbald: 6 passesSevelj and Camara: 6 passesKucherenko and Esselink: 7 passesEsselink and Sevelj: 7 passesStephenson and Sevelj: 8 passesKeresztes and Ferry: 11 passesIovu and Esselink: 11 passesKeresztes and Esselink: 22 passesKucherenko: 15 completed passesKeresztes: 20 completed passesIovu: 16 completed passesEsselink: 28 completed passesStephenson: 11 completed passesFerry: 9 completed passesSevelj: 16 completed passesCamara: 12 completed passesSibbald: 10 completed passesSapsford: 6 completed passesMöller: 7 completed passes1234321115814977KucherenkoKeresztesIovuEsselinkStephensonFerrySeveljCamaraSibbaldSapsfordMöllerStarters until 67' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

St. Mirren

McMenamin and Nlundulu: 4 passesJohn and Nlundulu: 4 passesPhillips and O'Hara: 4 passesO'Hara and Nlundulu: 4 passesGeorge and Freckleton: 5 passesFraser and Baccus: 5 passesBaccus and Phillips: 5 passesBaccus and Ayunga: 5 passesPhillips and Nlundulu: 5 passesO'Hara and Ayunga: 5 passesGogic and McMenamin: 6 passesGogic and Phillips: 6 passesFreckleton and Ayunga: 6 passesFreckleton and O'Hara: 7 passesFraser and McMenamin: 7 passesFraser and Ayunga: 7 passesJohn and Baccus: 7 passesFreckleton and John: 8 passesGogic and Freckleton: 9 passesMcMenamin and Phillips: 9 passesGeorge and Gogic: 10 passesFreckleton and Baccus: 10 passesMcMenamin and Baccus: 10 passesGeorge: 15 completed passesGogic: 19 completed passesFreckleton: 26 completed passesFraser: 15 completed passesMcMenamin: 20 completed passesJohn: 14 completed passesBaccus: 29 completed passesPhillips: 24 completed passesO'Hara: 13 completed passesAyunga: 14 completed passesNlundulu: 10 completed passes11321221024258861114GeorgeGogicFreckletonFraserMcMenaminJohnBaccusPhillipsO'HaraAyungaNlunduluStarters until 70' · lines join pairs with 4+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Dundee United

FromToPasses
EsselinkKeresztes15
KeresztesEsselink8
KeresztesFerry7
KucherenkoEsselink6
EsselinkIovu6

St. Mirren

FromToPasses
BaccusFreckleton10
GogicGeorge8
PhillipsBaccus7
FreckletonJohn7
FreckletonGogic6

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Dundee United

14+6.524+6.511+3.66+0.66−1.18−1.56−2.811+3.12−3.42−1.57+2.27+1.88+1.82−1.67+3.030.04+0.10−3.10−2.80−2.20−1.03+0.91−0.20−0.80−0.42+1.11+0.91−0.11−5.64−6.1FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 8 matches

St. Mirren

5+0.99+1.97−0.45+0.62−4.83−5.46+1.42−5.22−3.54−1.85+0.94+1.22−1.21−3.24−0.11−1.53−0.43+1.41−1.51−2.40−1.92+0.44+2.43+0.210.00−0.50−1.01+1.01+0.89−9.2FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 8 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Dundee United

0.010.010.010.030.010.020.020.010.020.020.010.010.040.020.090.030.070.020.090.020.020.07−0.07−0.010.15LessMore

St. Mirren

0.010.010.010.020.020.010.010.020.010.020.040.060.010.040.100.250.030.050.04−0.01−0.01−0.110.060.360.32LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.36AttackDundee United1.21 → 1.23St. Mirren1.14 → 1.15Defence (lower is better)Dundee United1.46 → 1.47St. Mirren1.42 → 1.44

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Dundee United
Top six38%47%+9
11th7%4%−3
Bottom3%2%−1
St. Mirren
Top six30%22%−8
11th9%11%+2
Bottom3%5%+2

From the forecast before the match (25 October 2025): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

Dundee UnitedSt. Mirren
Expected goals1.491.10
Win45%28%
Expected Points1.631.10
Clean sheet33%23%

Dundee United 45%Draw 27%St. Mirren 28%

Most likely score 1–1, 13%. Both sides score 52%.

St. Mirren goalsDundee United goals0123456+0123456+8%8%5%2%7%2%8%9%5%2%4%5%3%2%2%11%13%

From the forecast as it stood on 25 October 2025: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowDundee United winDrawSt. Mirren win
Dundee United
Top six38%47%35%26%
11th7%4%8%10%
Bottom3%2%3%5%
St. Mirren
Top six30%22%32%41%
11th9%11%9%5%
Bottom3%5%3%2%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Dundee United

  1. D2–218 OctRangers (A)xG 0.87–1.62
  2. D1–14 OctLivingston (H)xG 2.14–1.29
  3. L0–227 SepKilmarnock (H)xG 2.21–1.49
  4. W2–023 SepAberdeen (H)xG 1.33–1.33
  5. D3–313 SepHibernian (A)xG 1.87–3.05
  6. W2–031 AugDundee FC (A)xG 0.91–0.12

St. Mirren

  1. L0–118 OctAberdeen (H)xG 0.48–2.05
  2. L0–24 OctKilmarnock (A)xG 0.43–2.15
  3. W1–027 SepDundee FC (H)xG 0.74–0.62
  4. W2–113 SepFalkirk (A)xG 1.57–0.70
  5. D1–131 AugHibernian (A)xG 0.85–2.42
  6. D1–124 AugRangers (H)xG 1.01–1.56

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

Dundee UnitedSt. Mirren
Position4th7th
Played88
Won, drawn, lost2–⁠4–⁠22–⁠3–⁠3
Points10 (1.25 per game)9 (1.12 per game)
Expected Points per game1.250.96
Goals14–⁠135–⁠7
xG per game1.40–⁠1.600.83–⁠1.43
Home: points, xG per game1.00, 1.60–⁠1.501.25, 0.89–⁠1.19
Away: points, xG per game1.50, 1.21–⁠1.701.00, 0.77–⁠1.67
ManagerJim Goodwin (58)Stephen Robinson (79)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.36AttackDundee United1.21, 8thSt. Mirren1.14, 9thDefence (lower is better)Dundee United1.46, 9thSt. Mirren1.42, 7th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0SepOctDundee United attack: 1.21St. Mirren attack: 1.141.211.14St. MirrenDundee UnitedDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0SepOctDundee United defence: 1.46St. Mirren defence: 1.421.461.42

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

Dundee UnitedSt. Mirren
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−18%+26%−39%+10%
Counter-attacks+63%−45%−56%+116%
Set pieces+30%+17%−12%−9%
Penalties−28%+44%−100%−100%
Headers−3%−3%−33%+6%
Left side+64%−19%−34%+25%
Centre−19%+29%−31%+26%
Right side+11%+13%−35%−14%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Dundee United attacking

Dundee United createdSt. Mirren concededLeft side+64%−14%Centre−19%+26%Right side+11%+25%Open play−18%+10%Counter-attacks+63%+116%Set pieces+30%−9%Headers−3%+6%

St. Mirren attacking

St. Mirren createdDundee United concededLeft side−34%+13%Centre−31%+29%Right side−35%−19%Open play−39%+26%Counter-attacks−56%−45%Set pieces−12%+17%Headers−33%−3%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

Dundee UnitedSt. Mirren

1.40xG0.83
1.60xG against1.43
43%Possession42%
13.6Shots9.5
16.4Shots against12.1
5.8Shots on target3.0
2.4Big chances1.4
23.9Touches in the opposition box20.9
329Passes334
74%Pass accuracy73%
4.8Corners5.4
41%Field tilt45%
32.6Final-third entries34.8
12.6Box entries10.6
14.2Passes per defensive action18.8

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Dundee United

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level481.461.30
Ahead270.952.06
Behind152.021.73

St. Mirren

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level650.891.22
Ahead160.832.02
Behind80.281.91

xG by period

Dundee United

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.150.142–0
16–300.130.311–4
31–450.230.354–1
46–600.260.273–4
61–750.310.193–1
76–900.330.341–3

St. Mirren

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.070.150–0
16–300.140.230–1
31–450.160.242–1
46–600.060.110–0
61–750.160.392–1
76–900.240.321–4

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Dundee United

GKCBCBCBRWBCMCMLWBRWSTLWKucherenko 8Iovu 7Stephenson 1Camara 1Esselink 8Keresztes 7Stephenson 5Sevelj 1Eskesen 1Sevelj 7Camara 5Sibbald 3Pappoe 1Ferry 6Keresztes 1Dolcek 1Dolcek 5Fatah 1Camara 1Sapsford 6Möller 1Stirton 1Fatah 4Dolcek 2Sapsford 23-4-3 in 5 of 8 starts

Formations: 3-4-3 (5), 4-2-3-1 (1), 3-5-2 (1), 4-3-3 (1)

St. Mirren

GKCBCBCBRWBCMCMCMLWBSTSTGeorge 8Fraser 6King 3Gogic 8Freckleton 7Richardson 8Phillips 8Baccus 5Donnelly 2Taylor 1O'Hara 6Idowu 2John 8Ayunga 5Idowu 2Nlundulu 1Mandron 83-5-2 in 5 of 8 starts

Formations: 3-5-2 (5), 5-3-2 (3)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
10 May 2025Dundee United0–2St. MirrenxG 1.47–2.18
11 January 2025St. Mirren0–1Dundee UnitedxG 2.39–1.51
30 November 2024Dundee United2–0St. MirrenxG 3.22–0.35
5 October 2024St. Mirren0–1Dundee UnitedxG 1.07–0.97
18 March 2023Dundee United1–1St. MirrenxG 1.12–1.75
22 October 2022St. Mirren2–1Dundee UnitedxG 1.29–0.70

14 league meetings since 2020/21: Dundee United won 5, St. Mirren won 5, and 4 were drawn. Goals 12–17 and xG 1.35–1.41 per game.

Key players

Dundee United

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Sapsford8685210.400.08
Dolcek8576510.310.15
Sevelj8706010.190.13
Stephenson6535210.150.14

St. Mirren

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Mandron8640120.210.12
O'Hara6494000.090.13
John8710120.030.19
Phillips8652100.100.05

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.