Digressive Celts

Matches › 2022/23

Kilmarnock 1–0 Dundee United

Wednesday 1 February 2023, 19:45 · Rugby Park · Round 24 · Half-time 1–0 · Referee Matthew McDermid · Attendance 4,620

Kilmarnock Armstrong 35'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

KilmarnockDundee United
Goals10
xG2.711.37
Non-penalty xG2.710.58
Expected Points2.200.60

Kilmarnock 67%Draw 20%Dundee United 13%

Most likely score 2–1, 13%. Final score 1–0, 2%.

Dundee United goalsKilmarnock goals0123456+0123456+3%2%2%5%1%3%8%2%3%7%2%2%8%5%1%4%2%2%1%9%13%12%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

01230153045607590HTAlebiosu on for Taylor, 41'Power on for Donnelly, 87'Sanders on for Chambers, 89'Sibbald on for Djoum, 63'Pawlett on for McGrath, 68'Niskanen on for Smith and MacLeod on for Middleton, 79'Armstrong 35'Kilmarnock 2.71Dundee United 1.3701230153045607590HTAlebiosu on for Taylor, 41'Power on for Donnelly, 87'Sanders on for Chambers, 89'Sibbald on for Djoum, 63'Pawlett on for McGrath, 68'Niskanen on for Smith and MacLeod on for Middleton, 79'Armstrong 35'2.711.37KilmarnockDundee United

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

KilmarnockDundee United

2.71 +1.83xG1.37 +0.56
2.71Non-penalty xG0.58
1.36 +0.77xG on target1.11 +0.24
27 +16.0Shots7 −2.9
6 +3.1Shots on target3 −0.6
3 +1.7Big chances1 +0.2
48 +30Touches in the opposition box14 −3
45% 0Possession55% +10
322 −13Passes401 +41
69% +3Pass accuracy71% +1
49% +4Field tilt51% +7
45 +11Final-third entries35 0
20 +11.3Box entries7 −1.8
13.3 −2Passes per defensive action13.0 −5
7 +2.8Corners2 −2.8
16 0Tackles21 +6
10 −1.5Interceptions7 −1.9
21 +3Clearances39 +16
3 −0.1Saves5 +1.9
9 −4Fouls8 −2
2 +0.3Offsides1 −0.4

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Kilmarnock

Doidge 67', 0.27 xGMcKenzie 74', 0.27 xGVassell 82', 0.26 xGMcKenzie 19', 0.23 xGVassell 54', 0.21 xGVassell 70', 0.15 xGWright 10', 0.13 xGDoidge 72', 0.13 xGDoidge 31', 0.12 xGDonnelly 45', 0.12 xGVassell 13', 0.11 xGVassell 82', 0.09 xGMcKenzie 39', 0.08 xGVassell 66', 0.08 xGAlebiosu 45', 0.04 xGWright 45+1', 0.04 xGDonnelly 51', 0.04 xGPolworth 45+1', 0.03 xGPolworth 45+3', 0.03 xGPolworth 51', 0.03 xGArmstrong 56', 0.03 xGArmstrong 60', 0.03 xGArmstrong 62', 0.03 xGTaylor 28', 0.02 xGWright 38', 0.02 xGPolworth 66', 0.02 xGArmstrong 35', 0.11 xG, goal13%0.34 xGSix-yard box: 3 shots, 0.34 xG, 0 goals65%1.76 xGCentral box: 12 shots, 1.76 xG, 1 goal14%0.38 xGWide in the box: 6 shots, 0.38 xG, 0 goals6%0.17 xGEdge of the box: 4 shots, 0.17 xG, 0 goals2%0.06 xGFurther out: 2 shots, 0.06 xG, 0 goals

Dundee United

Middleton 78', 0.19 xGEdwards 53', 0.13 xGFletcher 80', 0.10 xGGraham 65', 0.09 xGMacLeod 89', 0.05 xGMcMann 30', 0.02 xG15%0.09 xGSix-yard box: 1 shot, 0.09 xG, 0 goals73%0.43 xGCentral box: 3 shots, 0.43 xG, 0 goals8%0.05 xGWide in the box: 1 shot, 0.05 xG, 0 goals3%0.02 xGEdge of the box: 1 shot, 0.02 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

KilmarnockDundee United

1.97 18 shots, 1 goalOpen play0.36 4 shots, 0 goals
0.35 2 shots, 0 goalsCounter-attacks0.00 0 shots, 0 goals
0.39 7 shots, 0 goalsSet pieces0.22 2 shots, 0 goals
0.00 0 shots, 0 goalsPenalties0.79 1 shot, 0 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
35 min (37%) · Kilmarnock 0.72, Dundee United 0.81 xG
Kilmarnock ahead
60 min (63%) · Kilmarnock 1.99, Dundee United 0.56 xG

Line-ups

2025192411223172623WalkerMayoTaylorWrightChambersArmstrongDonnellyPolworthMcKenzieDoidgeVassellGoalYellow card41'89'87'Kilmarnock 4-4-2Derek McInnes1124621019318159BirighittiEdwardsMulgrewGrahamSmithDjoumLevittMcMannMcGrathMiddletonFletcherYellow cardYellow card79'63'68'79'Dundee United 3-4-2-1Liam Fox

Kilmarnock substitutes

  • 41' Alebiosu for Taylor
  • 87' Power for Donnelly
  • 89' Sanders for Chambers

Dundee United substitutes

  • 63' Sibbald for Djoum · yellow card 90+2'
  • 68' Pawlett for McGrath
  • 79' Niskanen for Smith
  • 79' MacLeod for Middleton

Players

Kilmarnock

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
WalkerGK900.000.0100.0761
MayoRB900.000.0100.101211
TaylorCB410.020.0200.2045
WrightCB900.190.0100.0935
ChambersLB8910.000.1830.1382
Armstrong RM9010.200.4070.2366
DonnellyCM870.160.0210.0333
PolworthCM900.100.0810.1563
McKenzieLM900.580.2320.0942
DoidgeST900.510.0500.1423
VassellST900.900.1720.0130
AlebiosuMF490.040.1040.3076
PowerMF30.000.0000.0000
SandersDF10.000.0000.0000

Dundee United

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
BirighittiGK900.000.0000.0212
EdwardsCB900.130.1610.21313
MulgrewCB900.000.0000.03217
Graham CB900.090.0100.06410
SmithRWB790.000.0610.0734
DjoumCM630.000.0200.0254
LevittCM900.000.0910.1072
McMannLWB900.020.0300.04610
McGrathAM680.000.3400.0944
Middleton AM790.190.0810.0113
FletcherST900.890.0100.0633
Sibbald MF270.000.0100.0122
PawlettMF220.000.0220.0531
NiskanenDF110.000.0000.0112
MacLeodMF110.050.000−0.0101

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Kilmarnock

Walker and Taylor: 3 passesChambers and Donnelly: 3 passesArmstrong and Donnelly: 3 passesDonnelly and McKenzie: 3 passesWalker and Chambers: 4 passesWright and Chambers: 4 passesArmstrong and Vassell: 4 passesMayo and Vassell: 5 passesTaylor and Wright: 5 passesChambers and Polworth: 7 passesArmstrong and Polworth: 7 passesMayo and Polworth: 8 passesMayo and Armstrong: 10 passesWalker: 7 completed passesMayo: 17 completed passesTaylor: 14 completed passesWright: 7 completed passesChambers: 16 completed passesArmstrong: 16 completed passesPolworth: 13 completed passesDonnelly: 9 completed passesMcKenzie: 9 completed passesDoidge: 2 completed passesVassell: 3 completed passes2025192411312272623WalkerMayoTaylorWrightChambersArmstrongPolworthDonnellyMcKenzieDoidgeVassellStarters until 41' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Dundee United

Birighitti and Mulgrew: 5 passesSmith and McGrath: 5 passesDjoum and Levitt: 5 passesBirighitti and Graham: 6 passesLevitt and McGrath: 6 passesEdwards and Levitt: 7 passesMulgrew and Graham: 7 passesGraham and McMann: 7 passesGraham and Levitt: 7 passesMcGrath and Middleton: 7 passesEdwards and Smith: 8 passesGraham and Middleton: 8 passesSmith and Djoum: 8 passesMcMann and Middleton: 8 passesEdwards and Mulgrew: 9 passesEdwards and McGrath: 9 passesSmith and Middleton: 9 passesMcMann and Levitt: 9 passesMcMann and McGrath: 9 passesDjoum and McGrath: 10 passesBirighitti: 14 completed passesEdwards: 25 completed passesMulgrew: 21 completed passesGraham: 23 completed passesSmith: 19 completed passesMcMann: 23 completed passesDjoum: 26 completed passesLevitt: 20 completed passesMcGrath: 26 completed passesMiddleton: 19 completed passesFletcher: 7 completed passes1124623101918159BirighittiEdwardsMulgrewGrahamSmithMcMannDjoumLevittMcGrathMiddletonFletcherStarters until 63' · lines join pairs with 5+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Kilmarnock

FromToPasses
ChambersPolworth9
PolworthArmstrong8
MayoArmstrong8
ArmstrongPolworth7
AlebiosuPolworth7

Dundee United

FromToPasses
McMannLevitt10
MulgrewEdwards9
EdwardsMcGrath7
GrahamMcMann7
GrahamLevitt7

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Kilmarnock

5−0.37+0.14−2.83−2.011+3.77+0.29+3.04−2.69+1.55−1.77+1.52−1.82−3.46+1.14−1.05+0.93+0.83−1.05+1.23+0.65+3.34+3.32+0.15+2.30−1.52+1.22+1.50−0.43+2.36−6.6FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 23 matches

Dundee United

4−0.43−3.032+17.113+6.710+4.26+0.59+4.05−2.812+5.57+0.74−0.70−4.96+2.48+2.810+4.02−3.03−0.33+0.64+0.51−2.31−0.80−1.30−1.11−0.62+0.60−0.70−0.20−0.50−0.42+0.8FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 22 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Kilmarnock

0.010.030.040.040.030.010.010.010.050.030.060.010.150.040.030.040.020.040.040.050.090.20−0.080.070.280.28LessMore

Dundee United

0.010.010.020.020.010.010.020.030.010.040.020.040.040.030.07−0.010.040.040.070.050.050.13LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.23AttackKilmarnock0.96 → 1.00Dundee United0.94 → 0.93Defence (lower is better)Kilmarnock1.38 → 1.34Dundee United1.44 → 1.47

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Kilmarnock
Top six1%1%0
11th26%23%−3
Bottom27%17%−10
Dundee United
Top six3%2%−1
11th20%25%+5
Bottom16%22%+6
Ross County
11th27%24%−3
Bottom42%44%+2
Aberdeen
Top six59%59%0

From the forecast before the match (1 February 2023): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

KilmarnockDundee United
Expected goals1.370.94
Win46%25%
Expected Points1.671.04
Clean sheet39%26%

Kilmarnock 46%Draw 29%Dundee United 25%

Most likely score 1–1, 13%. Both sides score 46%.

Dundee United goalsKilmarnock goals0123456+0123456+9%4%1%6%2%9%9%4%1%4%4%2%1%1%11%13%13%

From the forecast as it stood on 1 February 2023: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowKilmarnock winDrawDundee United win
Kilmarnock
Top six1%1%<1%<1%
11th26%23%29%29%
Bottom27%17%31%41%
Dundee United
Top six3%2%3%7%
11th20%25%19%12%
Bottom16%22%14%7%
Ross County
11th27%24%27%32%
Bottom42%44%41%37%
Aberdeen
Top six59%59%60%56%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Kilmarnock

  1. L0–328 JanRoss County (A)xG 1.38–1.74
  2. L2–318 JanRangers (H)xG 0.79–1.49
  3. L0–27 JanCeltic (A)xG 0.08–3.48
  4. D0–02 JanSt. Mirren (H)xG 0.70–0.35
  5. W2–128 DecAberdeen (H)xG 1.91–0.42
  6. D2–223 DecMotherwell (A)xG 0.34–1.33

Dundee United

  1. L0–229 JanCeltic (H)xG 0.33–2.91
  2. D2–214 JanHibernian (A)xG 0.87–0.80
  3. L0–28 JanRangers (H)xG 0.46–1.60
  4. W1–02 JanSt. Johnstone (A)xG 0.54–0.63
  5. W3–028 DecRoss County (H)xG 0.85–0.98
  6. D2–224 DecHearts (H)xG 0.79–1.72

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

KilmarnockDundee United
Position12th11th
Played2322
Won, drawn, lost5–⁠5–⁠135–⁠5–⁠12
Points20 (0.87 per game)20 (0.91 per game)
Expected Points per game1.120.92
Goals19–⁠4125–⁠39
xG per game0.88–⁠1.300.81–⁠1.61
Home: points, xG per game1.64, 1.17–⁠1.091.08, 0.84–⁠1.68
Away: points, xG per game0.17, 0.61–⁠1.490.70, 0.77–⁠1.52
ManagerDerek McInnes (23)Liam Fox (17)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.23AttackKilmarnock0.96, 9thDundee United0.94, 11thDefence (lower is better)Kilmarnock1.38, 10thDundee United1.44, 11th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0AugSepOctNovDecJanKilmarnock attack: 0.96Dundee United attack: 0.940.960.94Dundee UnitedKilmarnockDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0AugSepOctNovDecJanKilmarnock defence: 1.38Dundee United defence: 1.441.441.38

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

KilmarnockDundee United
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−42%−2%−37%+33%
Counter-attacks−62%−9%−20%+126%
Set pieces+24%+25%−48%−6%
Penalties−78%−35%−32%−9%
Headers+18%−15%−44%+16%
Left side−5%−6%−26%+53%
Centre−38%+5%−41%+23%
Right side−29%+15%−47%+5%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Kilmarnock attacking

Kilmarnock createdDundee United concededLeft side−5%+5%Centre−38%+23%Right side−29%+53%Open play−42%+33%Counter-attacks−62%+126%Set pieces+24%−6%Headers+18%+16%

Dundee United attacking

Dundee United createdKilmarnock concededLeft side−26%+15%Centre−41%+5%Right side−47%−6%Open play−37%−2%Counter-attacks−20%−9%Set pieces−48%+25%Headers−44%−15%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

KilmarnockDundee United

0.88xG0.81
1.30xG against1.61
45%Possession44%
11.0Shots9.9
12.7Shots against14.9
2.9Shots on target3.6
1.3Big chances0.8
17.9Touches in the opposition box16.7
335Passes360
66%Pass accuracy70%
4.2Corners4.8
44%Field tilt44%
34.4Final-third entries34.9
8.7Box entries8.8
15.0Passes per defensive action17.6

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Kilmarnock

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level341.021.01
Ahead160.841.21
Behind390.771.58

Dundee United

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level360.651.56
Ahead220.811.28
Behind320.981.88

xG by period

Kilmarnock

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.110.173–6
16–300.130.232–9
31–450.190.213–6
46–600.250.164–5
61–750.090.204–7
76–900.110.333–8

Dundee United

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.150.225–5
16–300.100.174–2
31–450.140.343–10
46–600.110.353–11
61–750.180.175–1
76–900.130.365–10

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Kilmarnock

GKRBCBCBLBRMCMCMLMSTSTWalker 13Hemming 10Alebiosu 10Mayo 9Armstrong 2Taylor 16Wright 14Mayo 8Stokes 5Chrisene 7McInroy 6Polworth 2Armstrong 8McKenzie 5Jones 3Polworth 8Armstrong 4Alston 4Power 19Donnelly 7Alebiosu 1McKenzie 7Jones 6Taylor 3Lafferty 8Cameron 5Robinson 4Doidge 7Shaw 5Vassell 34-4-2 in 6 of 23 starts

Formations: 4-4-2 (6), 3-4-2-1 (4), 5-3-2 (3), 4-2-3-1 (3), 3-4-3 (2), 3-4-1-2 (1), 3-5-2 (1), 4-4-1-1 (1), 3-3-3-1 (1), 3-5-1-1 (1)

Dundee United

GKCBCBCBRWBCMCMLWBAMAMSTBirighitti 13Eriksson 9Smith 15Middleton 2Cudjoe 2Edwards 22McMann 11Graham 9Mulgrew 5Freeman 14Smith 7Niskanen 1Levitt 18Djoum 5Mulgrew 1Sibbald 12Harkes 3McGrath 3Behich 17McMann 3Sibbald 1Harkes 11McGrath 10Sibbald 1Middleton 13Watt 5Fletcher 3Fletcher 12Watt 7Middleton 13-4-2-1 in 9 of 22 starts

Formations: 3-4-2-1 (9), 5-3-2 (4), 4-3-3 (3), 3-4-1-2 (2), 3-5-1-1 (1), 3-5-2 (1), 5-4-1 (1), 4-2-3-1 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
9 November 2022Dundee United4–0KilmarnockxG 0.83–0.85
30 July 2022Kilmarnock1–1Dundee UnitedxG 1.24–0.38
21 April 2021Kilmarnock3–0Dundee UnitedxG 2.29–1.15
27 February 2021Kilmarnock1–1Dundee UnitedxG 1.25–1.02
23 December 2020Dundee United2–0KilmarnockxG 0.93–0.65
29 August 2020Kilmarnock4–0Dundee UnitedxG 1.15–1.04

6 league meetings since 2020/21: Kilmarnock won 2, Dundee United won 2, and 2 were drawn. Goals 9–8 and xG 1.24–0.89 per game.

Key players

Kilmarnock

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Armstrong161,468540.200.21
Shaw7628000.250.02
Jones10794000.100.16
Stokes7626200.190.03

Dundee United

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Fletcher151,226420.380.08
Watt121,018410.240.08
Middleton171,444220.120.16
McGrath141,208220.090.13

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.