Matches › 2025/26

Falkirk 1–2 St. Mirren

Saturday 13 September 2025, 15:00 · Falkirk Stadium · Round 5 · Half-time 0–0 · Referee Duncan Nicolson · Attendance 7,460

Falkirk Graham 88'

St. Mirren John 64', Mandron 81'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

Measure	Falkirk	St. Mirren
Goals	1	2
xG	0.70	1.57
Expected Points	0.69	2.04

Falkirk 14%Draw 27%St. Mirren 59%

Most likely score 0–1, 17%. Final score 1–2, 11%.

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

FalkirkSt. Mirren

0.70 −0.65xG1.57 +0.72

0.73 −0.42xG on target2.44 +1.74

10 −3.7Shots13 +4.0

2 −3.3Shots on target5 +1.5

2 −0.3Big chances3 +1.2

23 −3Touches in the opposition box19 −1

60% +2Possession40% +7

478 +58Passes320 +49

78% 0Pass accuracy71% 0

46% −14Field tilt54% +20

40 0Final-third entries36 +6

15 +3Box entries13 +3

18.1 +6Passes per defensive action36.8 +16

4 −0.3Corners2 −3.2

22 +7Tackles10 −4

1 −5.7Interceptions1 −9.0

27 −1Clearances27 −12

4 +1.0Saves1 −3.0

6 −6Fouls14 +2

8 +5.0Offsides4 +3.0

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Zones Shots

Falkirk

St. Mirren

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

FalkirkSt. Mirren

0.62 8 shots, 1 goalOpen play0.73 8 shots, 0 goals

0.08 2 shots, 0 goalsSet pieces0.84 5 shots, 2 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

0–00–10–2

Level: 64 min (70%) · Falkirk 0.38, St. Mirren 0.81 xG
St. Mirren ahead: 28 min (30%) · Falkirk 0.32, St. Mirren 0.76 xG

Line-ups

Falkirk substitutes

64' Williams for Arfield
79' Graham for MacIver · goal 88'
80' Samuel-Ogunsuyi for Miller
90+2' Agyeman for Tait

St. Mirren substitutes

42' King for Fraser
70' Nlundulu for Ayunga
90' Tanser for John

Players

Falkirk

Player	Pos	Min	G	A	xG	xA	KP	xT	Prog	Def
Bain	GK	90			0.00	0.00	0	0.03	2	0
Adams	RB	90			0.04	0.02	0	0.01	3	8
Neilson	CB	90			0.00	0.00	0	0.04	4	8
Henderson	CB	90			0.00	0.00	0	0.08	7	12
McCann	LB	90		1	0.00	0.18	2	0.18	13	4
Cartwright	DM	90			0.00	0.02	1	0.04	5	5
Spencer	DM	90			0.10	0.25	2	0.16	5	6
Arfield	RW	64			0.00	0.18	0	0.16	2	0
Tait	AM	90			0.00	0.25	1	0.20	5	5
Miller	LW	80			0.19	0.04	1	0.12	9	1
MacIver	ST	79			0.13	0.01	0	−0.03	1	3
Williams	FW	26			0.00	0.17	2	0.18	5	0
Graham	FW	11	1		0.06	0.00	0	−0.01	0	0
Samuel-Ogunsuyi	FW	10			0.18	0.00	0	−0.02	0	1
Agyeman	FW	0			0.00	0.00	0	−0.01	0	0

St. Mirren

Player	Pos	Min	G	A	xG	xA	KP	xT	Prog	Def
George	GK	90			0.00	0.00	0	0.04	5	0
Fraser	CB	42			0.00	0.00	0	0.02	3	5
Gogic	CB	90			0.00	0.04	0	0.07	5	10
Freckleton	CB	90			0.11	0.02	0	0.09	8	12
Richardson	RWB	90			0.00	0.12	1	0.02	5	2
Phillips	CM	90			0.19	0.01	0	−0.04	2	3
Baccus	CM	90			0.00	0.02	0	0.05	6	2
O'Hara	CM	90			0.25	0.01	0	0.01	1	1
John	LWB	90	1	1	0.10	0.75	4	0.47	11	3
Ayunga	ST	70			0.18	0.04	0	−0.07	1	0
Mandron	ST	90	1		0.70	0.14	2	−0.02	2	1
King	DF	48			0.04	0.11	1	0.21	6	3
Nlundulu	FW	20			0.00	0.01	1	−0.02	0	0
Tanser	MF	0			0.00	0.00	0	0.00	0	0

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Falkirk

St. Mirren

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Falkirk

From	To	Passes
Bain	Neilson	16
Henderson	McCann	16
Spencer	McCann	16
Bain	Henderson	11
Henderson	Spencer	11

St. Mirren

From	To	Passes
John	Freckleton	12
Freckleton	John	10
John	O'Hara	10
Freckleton	Baccus	7
Freckleton	George	6

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Falkirk

Against its average of 3 matches

St. Mirren

Against its average of 4 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Falkirk

St. Mirren

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

Chance	Before	With this result	Change
Falkirk
Top six	17%	10%	−7
11th	17%	20%	+3
Bottom	27%	35%	+8
St. Mirren
Top six	40%	49%	+9
11th	6%	4%	−2
Bottom	3%	1%	−2
Livingston
Top six	11%	10%	−1
11th	21%	21%	0
Bottom	23%	20%	−3
Dundee FC
Top six	4%	4%	0
11th	25%	26%	+1
Bottom	32%	30%	−2

From the forecast before the match (13 September 2025): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

Measure	Falkirk	St. Mirren
Expected goals	1.25	1.32
Win	35%	38%
Expected Points	1.31	1.41
Clean sheet	27%	29%

Falkirk 35%Draw 28%St. Mirren 38%

Most likely score 1–1, 13%. Both sides score 53%.

From the forecast as it stood on 13 September 2025: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

Chance	Now	Falkirk win	Draw	St. Mirren win
Falkirk
Top six	17%	24%	16%	10%
11th	17%	15%	17%	20%
Bottom	27%	19%	26%	35%
St. Mirren
Top six	40%	31%	39%	49%
11th	6%	9%	7%	4%
Bottom	3%	4%	3%	1%
Livingston
Top six	11%	11%	11%	10%
11th	21%	20%	21%	21%
Bottom	23%	25%	23%	20%
Dundee FC
Top six	4%	5%	4%	4%
11th	25%	24%	24%	26%
Bottom	32%	34%	33%	30%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Falkirk

St. Mirren

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

Measure	Falkirk	St. Mirren
Position	8th	10th
Played	3	4
Won, drawn, lost	1–⁠1–⁠1	0–⁠3–⁠1
Points	4 (1.33 per game)	3 (0.75 per game)
Expected Points per game	1.39	0.93
Goals	4–⁠5	2–⁠3
xG per game	1.35–⁠1.25	0.85–⁠1.48
Home: points, xG per game	1.00, 2.02–⁠1.19	1.00, 1.16–⁠1.04
Away: points, xG per game	1.50, 1.02–⁠1.27	0.50, 0.54–⁠1.92
Manager	John McGlynn (3)	Stephen Robinson (75)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

This season

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

Chances	Falkirk		St. Mirren
Chances	Created	Conceded	Created	Conceded
Open play	+9%	+2%	−23%	+29%
Counter-attacks	−33%	+18%	+3%	−4%
Set pieces	+30%	−22%	−17%	+25%
Penalties	−50%	+133%	−56%	−44%
Headers	+33%	−20%	−38%	−13%
Left side	−10%	−25%	−33%	+11%
Centre	+34%	+1%	−15%	+41%
Right side	−8%	+6%	−15%	+2%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't. Until a side has played six matches its figures are blended with last season's, or with the league average where there is no last season to use.

Matchups

Falkirk attacking

Falkirk createdSt. Mirren concededLeft side−10%+2%Centre+34%+41%Right side−8%+11%Open play+9%+29%Counter-attacks−33%−4%Set pieces+30%+25%Headers+33%−13%

St. Mirren attacking

St. Mirren createdFalkirk concededLeft side−33%+6%Centre−15%+1%Right side−15%−25%Open play−23%+2%Counter-attacks+3%+18%Set pieces−17%−22%Headers−38%−20%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

FalkirkSt. Mirren

1.35xG0.85

1.25xG against1.48

58%Possession33%

13.7Shots9.0

10.7Shots against12.8

5.3Shots on target3.5

2.3Big chances1.8

25.7Touches in the opposition box19.8

420Passes271

77%Pass accuracy71%

4.3Corners5.2

60%Field tilt34%

39.7Final-third entries30.0

12.3Box entries10.2

12.5Passes per defensive action20.3

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Falkirk

State	Minutes per game	xG per 90	xG against per 90
Level	57	1.45	1.23
Ahead	5	0.12	0.12
Behind	28	1.38	1.48

St. Mirren

State	Minutes per game	xG per 90	xG against per 90
Level	76	0.90	1.08
Ahead	14	0.57	3.44
Behind	1	0.00	6.60

xG by period

Falkirk

Minutes	xG per game	xG against	Goals
1–15	0.20	0.07	0–0
16–30	0.25	0.26	0–1
31–45	0.20	0.30	0–2
46–60	0.17	0.33	1–0
61–75	0.47	0.18	3–1
76–90	0.07	0.10	0–1

St. Mirren

Minutes	xG per game	xG against	Goals
1–15	0.06	0.23	0–0
16–30	0.12	0.17	0–0
31–45	0.15	0.31	1–0
46–60	0.06	0.09	0–0
61–75	0.22	0.40	1–1
76–90	0.25	0.29	0–2

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Falkirk

St. Mirren

Formations: 5-3-2 (3), 3-5-2 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Key players

St. Mirren

Player	Starts	Min	G	A	xG per 90	xA per 90
McMenamin	5	548	4	1	0.32	0.13
Smyth	6	676	4	0	0.29	0.13
Mandron	22	2,136	7	3	0.27	0.14
Ayunga	16	1,458	5	4	0.31	0.07

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes. Until a side has played six matches, last season's minutes at the club count too.