Digressive Celts

Matches › 2023/24

Hearts 2–0 St. Mirren

Saturday 23 December 2023, 15:00 · Tynecastle Park · Round 19 · Half-time 1–0 · Referee Nick Walsh · Attendance 18,717

Hearts Shankland 33', 49'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

HeartsSt. Mirren
Goals20
xG1.200.64
Expected Points1.810.86

Hearts 49%Draw 33%St. Mirren 17%

Most likely score 1–0, 19%. Final score 2–0, 12%.

St. Mirren goalsHearts goals0123456+0123456+14%10%3%4%12%9%3%4%3%19%17%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

00.511.50153045607590HTForrest on for Oda and Nieuwenhof on for McKay, 66'Sibbick on for Atkinson, 74'Tait on for Denholm, 84'Olusanya on for Ayunga, Jamieson on for Greive, and Nachmani on for Kiltie, 63'Mandron on for Small and Boyd-Munce on for O'Hara, 73'Shankland 33'Shankland 49'Hearts 1.20St. Mirren 0.6400.511.50153045607590HTForrest on for Oda and Nieuwenhof on for McKay, 66'Sibbick on for Atkinson, 74'Tait on for Denholm, 84'Olusanya on for Ayunga, Jamieson on for Greive, and Nachmani on for Kiltie, 63'Mandron on for Small and Boyd-Munce on for O'Hara, 73'Shankland 33'Shankland 49'1.200.64HeartsSt. Mirren

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

HeartsSt. Mirren

1.20 +0.14xG0.64 −0.36
2.17 +1.07xG on target0.69 −0.45
12 −0.9Shots11 +1.1
6 +2.1Shots on target4 +0.8
2 +1.0Big chances0 −1.9
21 −4Touches in the opposition box13 −4
54% −1Possession46% +1
481 +29Passes389 +60
78% +3Pass accuracy78% +14
49% −3Field tilt51% +9
35 −6Final-third entries36 +4
11 −1.2Box entries5 −3.6
11.2 −2Passes per defensive action17.7 +1
8 +0.9Corners6 +1.2
18 +4Tackles20 +6
9 +2.4Interceptions8 −0.3
21 −1Clearances22 −2
3 +0.4Saves4 +1.1
16 +5Fouls9 −2
0 −0.8Offsides0 −1.6

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Hearts

Shankland 57', 0.18 xGDenholm 39', 0.16 xGTait 88', 0.14 xGDenholm 15', 0.05 xGBaningime 29', 0.05 xGCochrane 2', 0.04 xGShankland 16', 0.04 xGRowles 17', 0.03 xGAtkinson 15', 0.02 xGAtkinson 58', 0.02 xGShankland 33', 0.39 xG, goalShankland 49', 0.08 xG, goal32%0.39 xGSix-yard box: 1 shot, 0.39 xG, 1 goal40%0.48 xGCentral box: 3 shots, 0.48 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGWide in the box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals28%0.33 xGEdge of the box: 8 shots, 0.33 xG, 1 goal0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

St. Mirren

Greive 63', 0.31 xGTanser 56', 0.06 xGSmall 63', 0.06 xGTaylor 45+3', 0.05 xGTaylor 76', 0.05 xGTanser 27', 0.03 xGAyunga 13', 0.02 xGGogic 62', 0.02 xGTaylor 45+2', 0.01 xGGogic 45+3', 0.01 xGTanser 77', 0.01 xG49%0.31 xGSix-yard box: 1 shot, 0.31 xG, 0 goals40%0.25 xGCentral box: 6 shots, 0.25 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGWide in the box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals3%0.02 xGEdge of the box: 1 shot, 0.02 xG, 0 goals8%0.05 xGFurther out: 3 shots, 0.05 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

HeartsSt. Mirren

0.61 5 shots, 1 goalOpen play0.10 3 shots, 0 goals
0.04 1 shot, 0 goalsCounter-attacks0.00 0 shots, 0 goals
0.55 6 shots, 1 goalSet pieces0.54 8 shots, 0 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
33 min (35%) · Hearts 0.63, St. Mirren 0.05 xG
Hearts ahead
60 min (65%) · Hearts 0.57, St. Mirren 0.59 xG

Line-ups

282415132261911189ClarkKentHalkettRowlesAtkinsonDenholmBaningimeCochraneOdaMcKayShanklandYellow cardYellow cardGoalGoal74'84'66'66'Hearts 3-4-2-1Steven Naismith12213516176321117HemmingFraserGogicTaylorSmallBaccusO'HaraTanserGreiveKiltieAyungaYellow cardYellow card73'73'63'63'63'St. Mirren 3-4-2-1Stephen Robinson

Hearts substitutes

  • 66' Forrest for Oda
  • 66' Nieuwenhof for McKay
  • 74' Sibbick for Atkinson
  • 84' Tait for Denholm

St. Mirren substitutes

  • 63' Jamieson for Greive
  • 63' Nachmani for Kiltie
  • 63' Olusanya for Ayunga
  • 73' Boyd-Munce for O'Hara · yellow card 76'
  • 73' Mandron for Small

Players

Hearts

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
ClarkGK900.000.0000.0110
KentCB900.000.0100.0758
Halkett CB900.000.0100.0568
RowlesCB900.030.0100.09611
Atkinson RWB740.030.0100.0115
DenholmCM8410.210.0710.0562
BaningimeCM900.050.1210.0226
CochraneLWB9010.040.5910.18410
OdaAM660.000.4120.2150
McKayAM660.000.0410.0680
ShanklandST9020.690.0000.0521
ForrestMF240.000.0300.1141
NieuwenhofMF240.000.0100.0320
SibbickDF160.000.0100.0231
TaitMF60.140.0100.0010

St. Mirren

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
HemmingGK900.000.0100.0640
FraserCB900.000.0100.0866
Gogic CB900.030.0000.05111
TaylorCB900.120.0100.04413
SmallRWB730.060.0110.0363
BaccusCM900.000.0410.0649
O'HaraCM730.000.0200.0101
Tanser LWB900.100.0300.0563
GreiveAM630.310.0310.0614
KiltieAM630.000.3720.1321
AyungaST630.020.0000.0100
JamiesonFW270.000.0510.0112
NachmaniFW270.000.000−0.0100
OlusanyaFW270.000.0000.0000
Boyd-Munce MF170.000.0000.0010
MandronFW170.000.000––0

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Hearts

Rowles and Atkinson: 4 passesKent and Denholm: 4 passesHalkett and McKay: 4 passesBaningime and Denholm: 4 passesBaningime and Shankland: 4 passesHalkett and Atkinson: 5 passesAtkinson and Oda: 5 passesDenholm and Shankland: 5 passesClark and Kent: 6 passesHalkett and Cochrane: 7 passesClark and Halkett: 8 passesCochrane and Baningime: 8 passesCochrane and Shankland: 8 passesDenholm and McKay: 8 passesKent and Atkinson: 9 passesBaningime and McKay: 9 passesDenholm and Oda: 9 passesHalkett and Baningime: 11 passesKent and Baningime: 13 passesRowles and Baningime: 15 passesRowles and Cochrane: 16 passesCochrane and McKay: 16 passesKent and Oda: 17 passesRowles and McKay: 20 passesRowles and Halkett: 22 passesKent and Halkett: 24 passesClark: 13 completed passesRowles: 45 completed passesKent: 39 completed passesHalkett: 43 completed passesAtkinson: 15 completed passesCochrane: 32 completed passesBaningime: 36 completed passesDenholm: 16 completed passesOda: 19 completed passesShankland: 8 completed passesMcKay: 28 completed passes281524131962211918ClarkRowlesKentHalkettAtkinsonCochraneBaningimeDenholmOdaShanklandMcKayStarters until 66' · lines join pairs with 4+ passes

St. Mirren

Gogic and Greive: 4 passesTanser and Baccus: 4 passesHemming and Tanser: 5 passesGogic and Baccus: 5 passesFraser and O'Hara: 5 passesTaylor and O'Hara: 6 passesSmall and Baccus: 6 passesBaccus and O'Hara: 6 passesBaccus and Greive: 6 passesGogic and O'Hara: 7 passesTaylor and Kiltie: 7 passesBaccus and Kiltie: 7 passesO'Hara and Kiltie: 8 passesTaylor and Baccus: 9 passesTanser and O'Hara: 11 passesFraser and Baccus: 12 passesSmall and Greive: 12 passesGogic and Taylor: 13 passesFraser and Small: 14 passesGogic and Fraser: 15 passesTaylor and Tanser: 15 passesTanser and Kiltie: 16 passesHemming: 10 completed passesGogic: 29 completed passesTaylor: 30 completed passesFraser: 32 completed passesSmall: 18 completed passesTanser: 30 completed passesBaccus: 32 completed passesO'Hara: 24 completed passesGreive: 10 completed passesAyunga: 4 completed passesKiltie: 21 completed passes11352216317621711HemmingGogicTaylorFraserSmallTanserBaccusO'HaraGreiveAyungaKiltieStarters until 63' · lines join pairs with 4+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Hearts

FromToPasses
HalkettKent14
HalkettRowles14
KentHalkett13
RowlesMcKay13
CochraneRowles12

St. Mirren

FromToPasses
TaylorGogic13
GogicFraser12
FraserBaccus11
TanserTaylor11
FraserSmall10

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Hearts

5−0.36−1.514−1.57−0.94−1.15−3.16+0.32−2.610+2.712+5.27+1.55−0.35+0.46+0.312+6.03−1.15+0.52−1.55+1.88+2.92+0.53+1.52+1.00−1.21−1.20−0.90−1.01+0.52+1.30−0.9FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 17 matches

St. Mirren

5−2.314−0.46−1.47+1.79+0.86−2.01−3.59+0.48+2.14−1.15+2.17+0.13−3.68+4.35+2.33+0.24+1.12−2.04+1.74+2.10−0.73+1.73+0.70−0.90−0.31+0.10−0.41−0.31−4.83−4.7FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 18 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Hearts

0.010.010.010.010.020.020.020.010.030.040.030.030.050.020.010.010.030.060.070.040.040.010.08−0.060.020.150.20LessMore

St. Mirren

0.030.010.020.020.020.030.020.030.070.060.02−0.020.05−0.020.06−0.010.07−0.010.12LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.27AttackHearts1.19 → 1.21St. Mirren1.03 → 1.02Defence (lower is better)Hearts1.30 → 1.27St. Mirren1.38 → 1.39

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Hearts
Top six91%95%+4
St. Mirren
Top six53%45%−8
11th3%4%+1
Bottom1%1%0
Hibernian
Top six64%65%+1
Kilmarnock
Top six71%73%+2

From the forecast before the match (23 December 2023): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

HeartsSt. Mirren
Expected goals1.550.95
Win51%22%
Expected Points1.790.94
Clean sheet39%21%

Hearts 51%Draw 27%St. Mirren 22%

Most likely score 1–1, 13%. Both sides score 49%.

St. Mirren goalsHearts goals0123456+0123456+9%7%4%1%6%2%4%1%5%5%2%2%2%12%13%10%9%

From the forecast as it stood on 23 December 2023: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowHearts winDrawSt. Mirren win
Hearts
Top six91%95%90%83%
St. Mirren
Top six53%45%55%71%
11th3%4%2%1%
Bottom1%1%<1%<1%
Hibernian
Top six64%65%64%60%
Kilmarnock
Top six71%73%71%68%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Hearts

  1. W2–016 DecCeltic (A)xG 0.34–1.60
  2. L1–29 DecAberdeen (A)xG 0.33–1.74
  3. L0–16 DecRangers (H)xG 1.03–2.53
  4. W1–02 DecKilmarnock (A)xG 0.73–1.16
  5. W1–025 NovSt. Johnstone (H)xG 1.44–0.85
  6. W2–111 NovMotherwell (A)xG 2.08–1.10

St. Mirren

  1. D0–016 DecMotherwell (H)xG 1.25–1.00
  2. W2–09 DecRoss County (H)xG 0.94–0.62
  3. L0–16 DecSt. Johnstone (A)xG 1.93–1.98
  4. L0–23 DecRangers (A)xG 0.14–1.75
  5. L0–128 NovRoss County (A)xG 0.24–0.66
  6. W1–025 NovLivingston (H)xG 0.81–0.59

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

HeartsSt. Mirren
Position3rd4th
Played1718
Won, drawn, lost8–⁠2–⁠77–⁠5–⁠6
Points26 (1.53 per game)26 (1.44 per game)
Expected Points per game1.191.12
Goals17–⁠1521–⁠22
xG per game1.06–⁠1.491.00–⁠1.44
Home: points, xG per game1.38, 1.18–⁠1.412.00, 1.22–⁠1.14
Away: points, xG per game1.67, 0.95–⁠1.560.89, 0.78–⁠1.74
ManagerSteven Naismith (13)Stephen Robinson (13)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.27AttackHearts1.19, 4thSt. Mirren1.03, 9thDefence (lower is better)Hearts1.30, 4thSt. Mirren1.38, 8th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovDecHearts attack: 1.19St. Mirren attack: 1.031.191.03St. MirrenHeartsDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovDecHearts defence: 1.30St. Mirren defence: 1.381.381.30

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

HeartsSt. Mirren
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−13%+7%−29%−5%
Counter-attacks−34%−14%−1%+45%
Set pieces−11%+13%−48%−14%
Penalties−100%+32%+25%+87%
Headers−38%−5%−12%−14%
Left side−10%+1%−44%−5%
Centre−22%−2%−35%+9%
Right sideaverage+34%−16%−29%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Hearts attacking

Hearts createdSt. Mirren concededLeft side−10%−29%Centre−22%+9%Right sideaverage−5%Open play−13%−5%Counter-attacks−34%+45%Set pieces−11%−14%Headers−38%−14%

St. Mirren attacking

St. Mirren createdHearts concededLeft side−44%+34%Centre−35%−2%Right side−16%+1%Open play−29%+7%Counter-attacks−1%−14%Set pieces−48%+13%Headers−12%−5%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

HeartsSt. Mirren

1.06xG1.00
1.49xG against1.44
55%Possession45%
12.9Shots9.9
13.8Shots against12.0
3.9Shots on target3.2
1.0Big chances1.9
25.4Touches in the opposition box16.9
452Passes328
75%Pass accuracy64%
7.1Corners4.8
53%Field tilt42%
40.9Final-third entries32.0
12.2Box entries8.6
12.8Passes per defensive action16.5

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Hearts

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level411.191.11
Ahead310.781.70
Behind181.222.01

St. Mirren

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level500.921.29
Ahead241.061.55
Behind161.181.73

xG by period

Hearts

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.070.163–2
16–300.230.285–2
31–450.060.210–1
46–600.140.351–2
61–750.290.146–3
76–900.260.352–5

St. Mirren

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.190.084–1
16–300.100.221–4
31–450.120.244–3
46–600.270.196–1
61–750.160.261–5
76–900.160.455–8

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Hearts

GKCBCBCBRWBCMCMCMLWBSTSTClark 17Kingsley 7Atkinson 5Sibbick 4Kent 17Rowles 17Forrest 5Oda 5Atkinson 2Nieuwen… 10NieuwenhofDenholm 2Offiah 1Baningime 9Boyce 3Shankland 2Devlin 7Grant 6Lowry 6Cochrane 8Lowry 3Vargas 3Shankland 15Tagawa 2Kingsley 6Vargas 4Boyce 43-5-2 in 8 of 17 starts

Formations: 3-5-2 (8), 4-2-3-1 (8), 4-3-3 (1)

St. Mirren

GKCBCBCBRWBCMCMLWBRWSTLWHemming 18Fraser 18Gogic 18Taylor 15Dunne 3Strain 11Flynn 3Small 2Baccus 10Jamieson 1McMenamin 1O'Hara 10Boyd-Munce 10Kiltie 4Tanser 16O'Hara 1Boyd-Munce 1McMenamin 12O'Hara 3Tanser 2Mandron 7Olusanya 6Ayunga 3Kiltie 14Ayunga 2Mandron 13-4-3 in 9 of 18 starts

Formations: 3-4-3 (9), 3-5-2 (4), 3-4-2-1 (4), 5-4-1 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
23 September 2023St. Mirren1–0HeartsxG 1.59–1.19
13 May 2023St. Mirren2–2HeartsxG 1.06–2.13
8 April 2023Hearts0–2St. MirrenxG 0.94–1.25
13 January 2023Hearts1–0St. MirrenxG 1.68–1.41
7 January 2023St. Mirren1–1HeartsxG 0.66–0.99
26 February 2022St. Mirren0–2HeartsxG 0.11–3.13

8 league meetings since 2020/21: Hearts won 4, St. Mirren won 2, and 2 were drawn. Goals 10–7 and xG 1.59–1.00 per game.

Key players

Hearts

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Boyce7631130.360.20
Shankland171,530800.350.15
Lowry9671010.110.25
Cochrane10900020.060.23

St. Mirren

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Mandron8723310.300.06
Olusanya6639110.290.06
Kiltie181,428230.190.09
O'Hara141,260210.200.06

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.