Digressive Celts

Matches › 2025/26

Hearts 3–0 Falkirk

Saturday 27 September 2025, 15:00 · Tynecastle Park · Round 6 · Half-time 2–0 · Referee Lloyd Wilson · Attendance 18,919

Hearts Kyziridis 22', Shankland 41', Halkett 48'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

HeartsFalkirk
Goals30
xG1.940.67
Expected Points2.280.51

Hearts 69%Draw 21%Falkirk 10%

Most likely score 2–0, 15%. Final score 3–0, 9%.

Falkirk goalsHearts goals0123456+0123456+6%4%1%3%4%9%7%2%4%3%1%14%11%15%11%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

01230153045607590HTSteinwender on for McEntee, 73'Forrest on for Kyziridis, 74'Kabangu on for Braga, 79'Magnússon on for Kingsley and Kerjota on for Shankland, 89'Oliver on for Williams and Arfield on for Cartwright, 46'Hart on for Lissah and Samuel-Ogunsuyi on for MacIver, 70'Agyeman on for Miller, 78'Kyziridis 22'Shankland 41'Halkett 48'Hearts 1.94Falkirk 0.6701230153045607590HTSteinwender on for McEntee, 73'Forrest on for Kyziridis, 74'Kabangu on for Braga, 79'Magnússon on for Kingsley and Kerjota on for Shankland, 89'Oliver on for Williams and Arfield on for Cartwright, 46'Hart on for Lissah and Samuel-Ogunsuyi on for MacIver, 70'Agyeman on for Miller, 78'Kyziridis 22'Shankland 41'Halkett 48'1.940.67HeartsFalkirk

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

HeartsFalkirk

1.94 +0.16xG0.67 −0.52
3.51 +1.41xG on target0.58 −0.67
20 +5Shots10 −2
10 +4.4Shots on target3 −1.8
1 −1.6Big chances0 −2.4
47 +16Touches in the opposition box16 −7
48% −5Possession52% −5
413 +2Passes468 +39
78% +2Pass accuracy80% +3
55% −10Field tilt45% −12
44 0Final-third entries33 −5
22 +8Box entries10 −3
12.1 +2.8Passes per defensive action18.2 +4.9
9 +2.6Corners5 +0.6
26 +6Tackles18 +2
8 −2.4Interceptions3 −3.4
28 +4Clearances38 +11
3 +1.0Saves7 +3.4
7 −7Fouls11 0
0 −1.4Offsides0 −4.2

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Hearts

Kyziridis 39', 0.54 xGBraga 51', 0.14 xGKingsley 65', 0.13 xGDevlin 34', 0.11 xGShankland 48', 0.11 xGBraga 18', 0.09 xGBraga 4', 0.08 xGBraga 25', 0.08 xGDevlin 16', 0.06 xGBraga 68', 0.06 xGKerjota 89', 0.06 xGHalkett 7', 0.05 xGBraga 51', 0.05 xGShankland 64', 0.05 xGKingsley 67', 0.05 xGMilne 10', 0.04 xGFindlay 17', 0.02 xGHalkett 48', 0.11 xG, goalKyziridis 22', 0.04 xG, goalShankland 41', 0.04 xG, goal36%0.69 xGSix-yard box: 3 shots, 0.69 xG, 0 goals45%0.87 xGCentral box: 9 shots, 0.87 xG, 1 goal6%0.12 xGWide in the box: 2 shots, 0.12 xG, 0 goals10%0.20 xGEdge of the box: 4 shots, 0.20 xG, 1 goal3%0.06 xGFurther out: 2 shots, 0.06 xG, 1 goal

Falkirk

Samuel-Ogunsuyi 90+5', 0.18 xGArfield 55', 0.10 xGArfield 60', 0.10 xGTait 90+5', 0.07 xGTait 80', 0.06 xGSamuel-Ogunsuyi 84', 0.06 xGMiller 59', 0.04 xGMiller 1', 0.03 xGSpencer 14', 0.02 xGAdams 90+5', 0.01 xG25%0.17 xGSix-yard box: 1 shot, 0.17 xG, 0 goals49%0.33 xGCentral box: 4 shots, 0.33 xG, 0 goals10%0.07 xGWide in the box: 2 shots, 0.07 xG, 0 goals15%0.10 xGEdge of the box: 3 shots, 0.10 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

HeartsFalkirk

0.69 12 shots, 2 goalsOpen play0.39 6 shots, 0 goals
0.69 2 shots, 0 goalsCounter-attacks0.00 0 shots, 0 goals
0.56 6 shots, 1 goalSet pieces0.28 4 shots, 0 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
22 min (23%) · Hearts 0.39, Falkirk 0.05 xG
Hearts ahead
74 min (77%) · Hearts 1.55, Falkirk 0.62 xG

Line-ups

253141931861489109SchwolowMcEnteeHalkettFindlayKingsleyMilneBaningimeDevlinKyziridisBragaShanklandGoalGoalGoal73'89'74'79'89'Hearts 4-4-2Derek McInnes19228538172921249BainAdamsLissahHendersonMcCannSpencerCartwrightMillerTaitWilliamsMacIverYellow card70'46'78'46'70'Falkirk 4-2-3-1John McGlynn

Hearts substitutes

  • 73' Steinwender for McEntee
  • 74' Forrest for Kyziridis
  • 79' Kabangu for Braga
  • 89' Magnússon for Kingsley
  • 89' Kerjota for Shankland

Falkirk substitutes

  • 46' Arfield for Cartwright
  • 46' Oliver for Williams
  • 70' Hart for Lissah
  • 70' Samuel-Ogunsuyi for MacIver
  • 78' Agyeman for Miller

Players

Hearts

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
SchwolowGK900.000.0000.0471
McEnteeRB730.000.0100.0986
HalkettCB9010.170.0700.07311
FindlayCB900.020.1010.08713
KingsleyLB890.190.2920.3577
MilneRM900.040.4540.27101
BaningimeCM900.000.0100.0113
DevlinCM900.180.0300.04514
KyziridisLM74110.580.4350.2272
BragaST790.510.0910.1030
ShanklandST8910.200.111−0.0861
SteinwenderDF170.000.0200.0212
ForrestMF160.000.0000.0003
KabanguFW110.000.0210.0421
MagnússonMF10.000.0100.0211
KerjotaFW10.060.0000.0110

Falkirk

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
BainGK900.000.0000.0312
AdamsRB900.010.0200.0267
LissahCB700.000.0000.0539
Henderson CB900.000.0000.0428
McCannLB900.000.010−0.0116
SpencerDM900.020.3740.30198
CartwrightDM460.000.0100.0124
MillerRW780.070.0710.1853
TaitAM900.130.1810.0223
WilliamsLW460.000.0310.0021
MacIverST700.000.010−0.0502
ArfieldMF440.200.010−0.0101
OliverFW440.000.0610.0212
HartDF200.000.0000.0336
Samuel-OgunsuyiFW200.230.0610.0601
AgyemanFW120.000.0100.0410

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Hearts

Halkett and Baningime: 5 passesFindlay and Milne: 5 passesSchwolow and Findlay: 6 passesKingsley and Shankland: 6 passesMilne and Braga: 6 passesMcEntee and Braga: 7 passesMcEntee and Shankland: 7 passesMilne and Shankland: 7 passesBaningime and Kyziridis: 7 passesFindlay and Devlin: 8 passesKingsley and Devlin: 8 passesMcEntee and Devlin: 9 passesFindlay and Kingsley: 9 passesBraga and Shankland: 9 passesMilne and Baningime: 10 passesKyziridis and Braga: 10 passesDevlin and Kyziridis: 11 passesSchwolow and Halkett: 12 passesMcEntee and Milne: 12 passesMilne and Devlin: 13 passesKingsley and Kyziridis: 15 passesHalkett and Findlay: 18 passesHalkett and Devlin: 18 passesMcEntee and Halkett: 21 passesSchwolow: 15 completed passesMcEntee: 30 completed passesHalkett: 43 completed passesFindlay: 32 completed passesKingsley: 31 completed passesMilne: 32 completed passesDevlin: 41 completed passesBaningime: 26 completed passesKyziridis: 28 completed passesBraga: 20 completed passesShankland: 16 completed passes253141931814689109SchwolowMcEnteeHalkettFindlayKingsleyMilneDevlinBaningimeKyziridisBragaShanklandStarters until 73' · lines join pairs with 5+ passes

Falkirk

Adams and Tait: 4 passesLissah and Henderson: 4 passesLissah and Cartwright: 4 passesLissah and Miller: 4 passesHenderson and McCann: 4 passesMcCann and Tait: 4 passesSpencer and Tait: 4 passesMiller and Tait: 4 passesMiller and Williams: 4 passesTait and Williams: 4 passesBain and Spencer: 5 passesBain and Cartwright: 5 passesLissah and Tait: 5 passesHenderson and Spencer: 5 passesMcCann and Williams: 5 passesAdams and Miller: 6 passesAdams and Lissah: 7 passesMcCann and Spencer: 7 passesAdams and Spencer: 8 passesLissah and Spencer: 8 passesBain and Lissah: 11 passesBain and Henderson: 12 passesBain: 20 completed passesAdams: 20 completed passesLissah: 22 completed passesHenderson: 17 completed passesMcCann: 12 completed passesSpencer: 24 completed passesCartwright: 12 completed passesMiller: 8 completed passesTait: 14 completed passesWilliams: 11 completed passesMacIver: 5 completed passes19228538172921249BainAdamsLissahHendersonMcCannSpencerCartwrightMillerTaitWilliamsMacIverStarters until 46' · lines join pairs with 4+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Hearts

FromToPasses
HalkettMcEntee14
HalkettFindlay11
DevlinHalkett10
MilneDevlin8
KingsleyKyziridis8

Falkirk

FromToPasses
HendersonBain16
AdamsSpencer11
AdamsTait10
BainHenderson10
McCannSpencer10

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Hearts

1−3.24−1.08−2.29+4.86+4.25−1.68+2.09+2.07+1.45−3.85−0.48+3.810+2.67+1.08+1.67+3.42−1.64−1.68+2.02−1.25+3.01−1.02+0.45+1.84+2.60−0.20−0.40−0.61−0.63−4.8FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 5 matches

Falkirk

8+0.810+5.625+13.28+2.07+3.87+1.25−0.86−0.86−2.03−3.06+0.46+0.83−0.26+1.84−2.64+0.22−2.62−0.22−0.65+0.62−1.62+0.62+1.63+1.40−3.61+0.60−0.20−0.60−0.20−0.8FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 5 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Hearts

0.010.020.010.010.010.050.060.020.040.040.020.060.010.030.020.050.070.140.060.020.030.040.20−0.050.010.30LessMore

Falkirk

0.010.020.010.050.010.010.010.030.04−0.010.030.040.070.020.020.040.050.030.07−0.010.08−0.030.14LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.37AttackHearts1.50 → 1.51Falkirk1.02 → 0.98Defence (lower is better)Hearts1.17 → 1.14Falkirk1.76 → 1.79

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Hearts
Title1%1%0
Top six97%99%+2
Falkirk
Top six8%6%−2
11th19%20%+1
Bottom36%40%+4
Dundee FC
Top six6%6%0
11th23%24%+1
Bottom21%19%−2
Livingston
Top six7%7%0
11th23%24%+1
Bottom26%26%0

From the forecast before the match (27 September 2025): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

HeartsFalkirk
Expected goals2.210.79
Win69%12%
Expected Points2.270.54
Clean sheet45%11%

Hearts 69%Draw 19%Falkirk 12%

Most likely score 2–0, 12%. Both sides score 49%.

Falkirk goalsHearts goals0123456+0123456+5%4%2%3%4%1%7%3%5%4%2%2%2%1%11%9%12%10%9%

From the forecast as it stood on 27 September 2025: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowHearts winDrawFalkirk win
Hearts
Title1%1%<1%1%
Top six97%99%97%92%
Falkirk
Top six8%6%9%17%
11th19%20%21%17%
Bottom36%40%30%22%
Dundee FC
Top six6%6%6%5%
11th23%24%22%23%
Bottom21%19%24%26%
Livingston
Top six7%7%7%5%
11th23%24%23%23%
Bottom26%26%27%31%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Hearts

  1. W2–013 SepRangers (A)xG 2.37–1.11
  2. W2–130 AugLivingston (A)xG 1.42–0.50
  3. D3–323 AugMotherwell (H)xG 2.21–1.52
  4. W3–210 AugDundee United (A)xG 1.87–0.71
  5. W2–04 AugAberdeen (H)xG 1.03–1.40
  6. W1–018 MayKilmarnock (A)xG 0.68–1.07

Falkirk

  1. D2–223 SepHibernian (H)xG 1.18–2.43
  2. L1–213 SepSt. Mirren (H)xG 0.70–1.57
  3. W1–031 AugAberdeen (A)xG 1.26–0.96
  4. L1–39 AugLivingston (A)xG 0.78–1.59
  5. D2–23 AugDundee United (H)xG 2.02–1.19

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

HeartsFalkirk
Position2nd8th
Played55
Won, drawn, lost4–⁠1–⁠01–⁠2–⁠2
Points13 (2.60 per game)5 (1.00 per game)
Expected Points per game1.931.08
Goals12–⁠67–⁠9
xG per game1.78–⁠1.051.19–⁠1.55
Home: points, xG per game2.00, 1.62–⁠1.460.67, 1.30–⁠1.73
Away: points, xG per game3.00, 1.89–⁠0.771.50, 1.02–⁠1.27
ManagerDerek McInnes (5)John McGlynn (5)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.37AttackHearts1.50, 4thFalkirk1.02, 11thDefence (lower is better)Hearts1.17, 3rdFalkirk1.76, 12th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0SepHearts attack: 1.50Falkirk attack: 1.021.501.02FalkirkHeartsDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0SepHearts defence: 1.17Falkirk defence: 1.761.761.17

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

HeartsFalkirk
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−3%+8%+7%−4%
Counter-attacks+48%−82%−30%+92%
Set pieces+51%−24%−1%−11%
Penalties+110%−81%−83%+123%
Headers+45%−30%+27%+7%
Left side+37%−26%−36%−44%
Centre+16%−22%+22%+24%
Right side+11%+25%−12%+2%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't. Until a side has played six matches its figures are blended with last season's, or with the league average where there is no last season to use.

Matchups

Hearts attacking

Hearts createdFalkirk concededLeft side+37%+2%Centre+16%+24%Right side+11%−44%Open play−3%−4%Counter-attacks+48%+92%Set pieces+51%−11%Headers+45%+7%

Falkirk attacking

Falkirk createdHearts concededLeft side−36%+25%Centre+22%−22%Right side−12%−26%Open play+7%+8%Counter-attacks−30%−82%Set pieces−1%−24%Headers+27%−30%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

HeartsFalkirk

1.78xG1.19
1.05xG against1.55
53%Possession57%
14.8Shots11.8
10.6Shots against12.0
5.6Shots on target4.8
2.6Big chances2.4
30.6Touches in the opposition box23.2
411Passes429
76%Pass accuracy78%
6.4Corners4.4
65%Field tilt57%
44.2Final-third entries38.4
13.6Box entries12.8
9.3Passes per defensive action13.3

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Hearts

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level401.810.51
Ahead301.741.50
Behind201.771.43

Falkirk

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level581.101.57
Ahead30.120.12
Behind291.471.65

xG by period

Hearts

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.150.071–0
16–300.300.142–3
31–450.140.190–1
46–600.150.212–1
61–750.150.213–1
76–900.880.234–0

Falkirk

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.220.080–0
16–300.160.560–2
31–450.280.331–3
46–600.110.221–0
61–750.320.174–2
76–900.110.181–2

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Hearts

GKCBCBCBRWBCMCMCMLWBSTSTClark 4Schwolow 1Kent 3Braga 1Steinwender 1Halkett 5Findlay 4Shankland 1McEntee 2Braga 1Forrest 1McEntee 2Milne 2Borchgrev… 1BorchgrevinkDevlin 5Baningime 2Spittal 3Milne 3Kingsley 1Forrest 1Shankland 4Findlay 1Braga 2McEntee 1Kyziridis 13-5-2 in 3 of 5 starts

Formations: 3-5-2 (3), 4-3-3 (1), 4-4-2 (1)

Falkirk

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTBain 5Adams 5Neilson 4McCann 1Henderson 5McCann 4Neilson 1Cartwright 3Tait 2Spencer 5Miller 2Arfield 2Williams 1Tait 3Ross 1Nesbitt 1Miller 3Arfield 1Ross 1MacIver 4Graham 14-2-3-1 in every start

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Key players

Hearts

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Kabangu111,020610.480.10
Shankland343,0231190.320.15
Wilson161,352520.260.14
Forrest141,290410.230.11

Falkirk

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Spencer5450010.090.18
Adams5450010.040.08
Henderson5450100.020.04
Neilson5450000.000.01

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes. Until a side has played six matches, last season's minutes at the club count too.