Digressive Celts

Matches › 2023/24

St. Mirren 1–2 Hearts

Saturday 6 April 2024, 15:00 · The SMISA Stadium · Round 32 · Half-time 0–1 · Referee Alan James Muir · Attendance 7,740

St. Mirren Olusanya 68'

Hearts Grant 33' (pen), Mandron 62' (og)

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

St. MirrenHearts
Goals12
xG0.892.37
Non-penalty xG0.891.58
Expected Points0.332.50

St. Mirren 5%Draw 17%Hearts 78%

Most likely score 1–2, 18%. Final score 1–2, 18%.

Hearts goalsSt. Mirren goals0123456+0123456+5%12%10%3%1%9%5%3%7%5%2%18%15%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

01230153045607590HTMcMenamin on for Bwomono and Baccus on for Kwon, 46'Ayunga on for Mandron and O'Hara on for Kiltie, 64'Scott on for Taylor, 79'Sibbick on for Kingsley, 46'Denholm on for Tait, 59'McKay on for Forrest and Atkinson on for Lembikisa, 73'Fraser on for Grant, 86'Olusanya 68'Grant 33' (pen)Mandron 62' (og)Hearts 2.37St. Mirren 0.8901230153045607590HTMcMenamin on for Bwomono and Baccus on for Kwon, 46'Ayunga on for Mandron and O'Hara on for Kiltie, 64'Scott on for Taylor, 79'Sibbick on for Kingsley, 46'Denholm on for Tait, 59'McKay on for Forrest and Atkinson on for Lembikisa, 73'Fraser on for Grant, 86'Olusanya 68'Grant 33' (pen)Mandron 62' (og)2.370.89St. MirrenHearts

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

St. MirrenHearts

0.89 −0.22xG2.37 +1.11
0.89Non-penalty xG1.58
0.95 −0.29xG on target0.87 −0.48
6 −5Shots10 −4
1 −2.5Shots on target2 −2.5
3 +1.1Big chances4 +2.8
18 −1Touches in the opposition box18 −8
58% +12Possession42% −14
399 +56Passes290 −174
73% +7Pass accuracy63% −13
56% +11Field tilt44% −13
39 +6Final-third entries17 −26
8 −1.2Box entries5 −8.8
10.2 −6Passes per defensive action17.4 +4
8 +3.4Corners7 +0.1
13 −1Tackles21 +7
11 +3.4Interceptions11 +4.8
14 −10Clearances23 +2
0 −2.7Saves1 −1.8
14 +3Fouls5 −6
1 −0.5Offsides2 +1.0

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

St. Mirren

Tanser 11', 0.15 xGTaylor 65', 0.12 xGBaccus 90+3', 0.04 xGBoyd-Munce 13', 0.03 xGFraser 36', 0.01 xGOlusanya 68', 0.53 xG, goal17%0.15 xGSix-yard box: 1 shot, 0.15 xG, 0 goals74%0.65 xGCentral box: 2 shots, 0.65 xG, 1 goal0%0.00 xGWide in the box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals5%0.04 xGEdge of the box: 1 shot, 0.04 xG, 0 goals5%0.04 xGFurther out: 2 shots, 0.04 xG, 0 goals

Hearts

Forrest 62', 0.64 xGGrant 79', 0.50 xGVargas 47', 0.17 xGForrest 67', 0.06 xGVargas 30', 0.05 xGVargas 51', 0.04 xGCochrane 67', 0.04 xGDevlin 1', 0.03 xGGrant 80', 0.03 xG73%1.15 xGSix-yard box: 2 shots, 1.15 xG, 0 goals4%0.06 xGCentral box: 1 shot, 0.06 xG, 0 goals14%0.22 xGWide in the box: 2 shots, 0.22 xG, 0 goals9%0.15 xGEdge of the box: 4 shots, 0.15 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

St. MirrenHearts

0.05 2 shots, 0 goalsOpen play0.55 2 shots, 0 goals
0.53 1 shot, 1 goalCounter-attacks0.17 1 shot, 0 goals
0.30 3 shots, 0 goalsSet pieces0.86 6 shots, 0 goals
0.00 0 shots, 0 goalsPenalties0.79 1 shot, 1 goal

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
33 min (34%) · St. Mirren 0.19, Hearts 0.87 xG
Hearts ahead
63 min (66%) · St. Mirren 0.70, Hearts 1.50 xG

Line-ups

122135421615320119HemmingFraserGogicTaylorBwomonoKwonBoyd-MunceTanserOlusanyaKiltieMandronYellow cardGoalOwn goal79'46'46'64'64'St. Mirren 3-4-2-1Stephen Robinson2832158171425197717ClarkKingsleyKentRowlesLembikisaGrantDevlinTaitCochraneVargasForrestGoalYellow card46'73'86'59'73'Hearts 3-5-2Steven Naismith

St. Mirren substitutes

  • 46' McMenamin for Bwomono
  • 46' Baccus for Kwon
  • 64' O'Hara for Kiltie · 1 assist
  • 64' Ayunga for Mandron
  • 79' Scott for Taylor

Hearts substitutes

  • 46' Sibbick for Kingsley · yellow card 62'
  • 59' Denholm for Tait
  • 73' Atkinson for Lembikisa
  • 73' McKay for Forrest
  • 86' Fraser for Grant

Players

St. Mirren

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
HemmingGK900.000.0000.0422
FraserCB900.010.0500.15133
GogicCB900.000.0110.12115
TaylorCB790.120.0000.0334
BwomonoRWB460.000.0100.0572
KwonCM460.000.0000.0002
Boyd-MunceCM900.030.1730.0665
Tanser LWB900.150.0300.12106
OlusanyaAM9010.530.0100.0032
KiltieAM640.000.010−0.0300
MandronST640.000.0200.0113
McMenaminMF440.000.0400.0320
BaccusMF440.040.0500.1153
O'HaraMF2610.000.0010.0012
AyungaFW260.000.0000.0001
ScottFW110.000.0000.0001

Hearts

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
ClarkGK900.000.0000.0111
KingsleyCB460.000.0210.0231
KentCB900.000.0000.0117
RowlesCB900.000.0000.0317
LembikisaRWB730.000.0000.0135
GrantCM8611.320.0200.0216
DevlinCM900.030.071−0.0427
Tait CM590.000.0200.0224
CochraneLWB900.040.1820.0139
VargasST900.270.0100.0103
ForrestST730.710.0100.0111
Sibbick DF440.000.0000.0002
DenholmMF310.000.0310.0852
AtkinsonDF170.000.0000.0110
McKayFW170.000.0000.0101
FraserMF40.000.0000.0000

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

St. Mirren

Fraser and Boyd-Munce: 3 passesTanser and Mandron: 3 passesTanser and Kiltie: 3 passesBoyd-Munce and Kwon: 3 passesBoyd-Munce and Mandron: 3 passesBoyd-Munce and Kiltie: 3 passesKwon and Olusanya: 3 passesGogic and Boyd-Munce: 4 passesBwomono and Mandron: 4 passesOlusanya and Mandron: 4 passesGogic and Bwomono: 5 passesTaylor and Tanser: 5 passesTaylor and Boyd-Munce: 5 passesTaylor and Kiltie: 5 passesFraser and Bwomono: 5 passesBwomono and Boyd-Munce: 5 passesBoyd-Munce and Olusanya: 5 passesBwomono and Olusanya: 6 passesGogic and Taylor: 7 passesTanser and Boyd-Munce: 9 passesGogic and Fraser: 10 passesBwomono and Kwon: 12 passesHemming: 4 completed passesGogic: 20 completed passesTaylor: 15 completed passesFraser: 13 completed passesBwomono: 22 completed passesTanser: 11 completed passesBoyd-Munce: 23 completed passesKwon: 9 completed passesOlusanya: 8 completed passesMandron: 5 completed passesKiltie: 7 completed passes113522423151620911HemmingGogicTaylorFraserBwomonoTanserBoyd-MunceKwonOlusanyaMandronKiltieStarters until 46' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Hearts

Clark and Kent: 3 passesKingsley and Grant: 3 passesLembikisa and Devlin: 3 passesTait and Forrest: 3 passesKent and Devlin: 4 passesKingsley and Tait: 4 passesCochrane and Tait: 4 passesCochrane and Forrest: 4 passesDevlin and Grant: 4 passesGrant and Vargas: 4 passesClark and Rowles: 5 passesRowles and Kent: 5 passesRowles and Cochrane: 5 passesRowles and Tait: 5 passesKent and Grant: 5 passesKingsley and Devlin: 5 passesCochrane and Vargas: 5 passesGrant and Forrest: 5 passesGrant and Tait: 6 passesCochrane and Grant: 9 passesKingsley and Lembikisa: 10 passesKent and Kingsley: 11 passesClark: 9 completed passesRowles: 14 completed passesKent: 17 completed passesKingsley: 18 completed passesLembikisa: 8 completed passesCochrane: 19 completed passesDevlin: 11 completed passesGrant: 15 completed passesTait: 13 completed passesVargas: 5 completed passesForrest: 8 completed passes2815238119147257717ClarkRowlesKentKingsleyLembikisaCochraneDevlinGrantTaitVargasForrestStarters until 46' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

St. Mirren

FromToPasses
TaylorGogic13
BaccusMcMenamin11
FraserGogic10
GogicFraser10
Boyd-MunceTanser9

Hearts

FromToPasses
CochraneGrant7
KingsleyKent7
ClarkRowles5
KingsleyLembikisa5
LembikisaKingsley5

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

St. Mirren

3−2.04−2.510−4.27+1.77−0.53−4.33−1.74−3.712+5.09+3.32−2.76+3.15−1.070.07+2.83+0.12−0.36+2.57+3.51−1.51−1.00−0.91−0.34+1.83+2.10−0.30−0.80−0.30−0.90−7.9FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 31 matches

Hearts

4−1.36−1.314−1.78+1.511+6.85−2.52−3.82−2.46−0.515+8.78+2.72−3.27+2.56+0.79+3.39+5.51−2.86+3.32−1.44−0.64+2.21−0.61−0.10−1.20−2.12+1.20−0.70−0.60−0.70−0.7FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 31 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

St. Mirren

0.010.020.010.020.020.050.010.020.060.030.010.030.060.050.030.04−0.030.02−0.010.03−0.05−0.020.010.080.110.09LessMore

Hearts

0.010.010.010.010.020.010.010.020.010.020.010.010.010.010.02−0.010.01−0.01−0.01−0.040.040.04LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.30AttackSt. Mirren1.13 → 1.10Hearts1.29 → 1.33Defence (lower is better)St. Mirren1.32 → 1.37Hearts1.27 → 1.24

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
St. Mirren
Top six99%97%−2
Hibernian
Top six42%44%+2

From the forecast before the match (6 April 2024): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

St. MirrenHearts
Expected goals1.331.18
Win40%32%
Expected Points1.471.25
Clean sheet31%26%

St. Mirren 40%Draw 28%Hearts 32%

Most likely score 1–1, 13%. Both sides score 51%.

Hearts goalsSt. Mirren goals0123456+0123456+9%9%6%2%8%3%7%8%5%2%3%4%2%1%1%10%13%

From the forecast as it stood on 6 April 2024: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowSt. Mirren winDrawHearts win
St. Mirren
Top six99%>99%98%97%
Hibernian
Top six42%40%43%44%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

St. Mirren

  1. D1–130 MarMotherwell (A)xG 1.32–1.84
  2. L2–516 MarKilmarnock (A)xG 0.74–1.91
  3. W2–12 MarAberdeen (H)xG 2.01–0.98
  4. D1–127 FebRoss County (A)xG 0.67–1.02
  5. W2–024 FebSt. Johnstone (H)xG 0.94–0.70
  6. L0–117 FebLivingston (A)xG 2.07–0.97

Hearts

  1. D1–130 MarKilmarnock (H)xG 1.61–1.55
  2. L1–216 MarRoss County (A)xG 1.27–1.74
  3. W2–03 MarCeltic (H)xG 1.65–2.45
  4. D1–128 FebHibernian (H)xG 1.70–2.66
  5. L0–524 FebRangers (A)xG 0.60–1.47
  6. W2–017 FebMotherwell (H)xG 1.71–0.46

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

St. MirrenHearts
Position5th3rd
Played3131
Won, drawn, lost12–⁠7–⁠1217–⁠5–⁠9
Points43 (1.39 per game)56 (1.81 per game)
Expected Points per game1.241.30
Goals37–⁠3840–⁠31
xG per game1.11–⁠1.361.26–⁠1.46
Home: points, xG per game1.80, 1.12–⁠1.201.81, 1.44–⁠1.39
Away: points, xG per game1.00, 1.10–⁠1.501.80, 1.07–⁠1.53
ManagerStephen Robinson (26)Steven Naismith (27)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.30AttackSt. Mirren1.13, 9thHearts1.29, 3rdDefence (lower is better)St. Mirren1.32, 5thHearts1.27, 4th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovDecJanFebMarSt. Mirren attack: 1.13Hearts attack: 1.291.291.13HeartsSt. MirrenDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovDecJanFebMarSt. Mirren defence: 1.32Hearts defence: 1.271.321.27

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

St. MirrenHearts
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−31%average−10%+8%
Counter-attacks−24%−11%average−40%
Set pieces−19%−5%−13%+15%
Penalties+47%+14%+14%+14%
Headers−12%−13%−24%+13%
Left side−25%−11%−7%−11%
Centre−33%+8%−21%+7%
Right side−17%−15%+8%+22%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

St. Mirren attacking

St. Mirren createdHearts concededLeft side−25%+22%Centre−33%+7%Right side−17%−11%Open play−31%+8%Counter-attacks−24%−40%Set pieces−19%+15%Headers−12%+13%

Hearts attacking

Hearts createdSt. Mirren concededLeft side−7%−15%Centre−21%+8%Right side+8%−11%Open play−10%averageCounter-attacksaverage−11%Set pieces−13%−5%Headers−24%−13%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

St. MirrenHearts

1.11xG1.26
1.36xG against1.46
46%Possession56%
10.8Shots13.8
11.5Shots against13.6
3.5Shots on target4.5
1.9Big chances1.2
18.9Touches in the opposition box26.5
343Passes464
65%Pass accuracy76%
4.6Corners6.9
45%Field tilt56%
33.5Final-third entries43.5
9.2Box entries13.8
16.6Passes per defensive action13.6

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

St. Mirren

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level390.961.34
Ahead251.361.47
Behind261.101.26

Hearts

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level441.311.32
Ahead260.921.66
Behind191.621.50

xG by period

St. Mirren

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.160.156–6
16–300.150.173–5
31–450.170.228–5
46–600.210.206–3
61–750.140.243–10
76–900.290.3711–9

Hearts

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.150.224–3
16–300.160.255–5
31–450.170.233–5
46–600.220.278–6
61–750.300.1510–6
76–900.270.3410–6

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

St. Mirren

GKCBCBCBRWBCMCMLWBRWSTLWHemming 31Fraser 28Bolton 10Gogic 31Taylor 19Dunne 5Strain 12Bwomono 7Flynn 4O'Hara 13Baccus 12Kwon 7Boyd-Munce 18Kiltie 6Tanser 26O'Hara 4Boyd-Munce 1McMenamin 13Tanser 5O'Hara 3Mandron 16Olusanya 8Ayunga 5Kiltie 25Ayunga 3Mandron 23-4-3 in 17 of 31 starts

Formations: 3-4-3 (17), 3-4-2-1 (7), 3-5-2 (6), 5-4-1 (1)

Hearts

GKCBCBCBRWBCMCMCMLWBSTSTClark 31Kingsley 18Sibbick 7Atkinson 6Kent 29Halkett 4Rowles 24Atkinson 7Oda 7Forrest 5Nieuwen… 21NieuwenhofDevlin 8Denholm 6Baningi… 20BaningimeFraser 3Boyce 3Grant 11Lowry 7Haring 5Cochrane 16Forrest 7Vargas 3Shankland 29Cochrane 7Vargas 6Kingsley 63-5-2 in 16 of 31 starts

Formations: 3-5-2 (16), 4-2-3-1 (13), 3-4-2-1 (1), 4-3-3 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
23 December 2023Hearts2–0St. MirrenxG 1.20–0.64
23 September 2023St. Mirren1–0HeartsxG 1.59–1.19
13 May 2023St. Mirren2–2HeartsxG 1.06–2.13
8 April 2023Hearts0–2St. MirrenxG 0.94–1.25
13 January 2023Hearts1–0St. MirrenxG 1.68–1.41
7 January 2023St. Mirren1–1HeartsxG 0.66–0.99

9 league meetings since 2020/21: St. Mirren won 2, Hearts won 5, and 2 were drawn. Goals 7–12 and xG 0.96–1.54 per game.

Key players

St. Mirren

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Jamieson6607100.240.20
Mandron181,591720.320.10
Olusanya9997410.340.07
Kiltie312,475450.200.12

Hearts

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Shankland312,7792020.460.14
Boyce7631130.360.20
Grant111,069240.230.17
Vargas151,500510.250.10

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.