Digressive Celts

Matches › 2023/24

Hearts 1–1 Kilmarnock

Saturday 30 March 2024, 15:00 · Tynecastle Park · Round 31 · Half-time 1–0 · Referee William Collum · Attendance 18,799

Hearts Vargas 10'

Kilmarnock Watkins 67'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

HeartsKilmarnock
Goals11
xG1.611.55
Expected Points1.391.32

Hearts 37%Draw 29%Kilmarnock 34%

Most likely score 1–1, 14%. Final score 1–1, 14%.

Kilmarnock goalsHearts goals0123456+0123456+2%5%4%2%5%5%1%5%10%4%1%2%5%4%2%1%1%14%11%11%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

00.511.520153045607590HTRowles on for Cochrane, Devlin on for Tait, and McKay on for Grant, 71'Atkinson on for Lembikisa and Oda on for Forrest, 80'Watson on for Donnelly, 54'Ndaba on for Deas, van Veen on for Vassell, and Mackay-Steven on for Armstrong, 74'McKenzie on for Wright, 88'Vargas 10'Watkins 67'Hearts 1.61Kilmarnock 1.5500.511.520153045607590HTRowles on for Cochrane, Devlin on for Tait, and McKay on for Grant, 71'Atkinson on for Lembikisa and Oda on for Forrest, 80'Watson on for Donnelly, 54'Ndaba on for Deas, van Veen on for Vassell, and Mackay-Steven on for Armstrong, 74'McKenzie on for Wright, 88'Vargas 10'Watkins 67'1.611.55HeartsKilmarnock

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

HeartsKilmarnock

1.61 +0.36xG1.55 +0.30
1.65 +0.31xG on target2.21 +0.78
16 +2Shots12 −1
6 +1.5Shots on target4 −0.1
1 −0.2Big chances5 +3.0
25 −2Touches in the opposition box21 −2
61% +5Possession39% −8
472 +8Passes285 −49
76% 0Pass accuracy67% +3
64% +8Field tilt36% −14
37 −7Final-third entries26 −7
9 −5Box entries13 +1
20.9 +7Passes per defensive action17.0 +3
7 +0.1Corners7 +0.8
11 −3Tackles23 +9
6 −0.2Interceptions12 +5.2
15 −6Clearances28 +7
3 +0.2Saves5 +2.2
5 −6Fouls12 0
1 0.0Offsides1 −0.1

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Hearts

Vargas 39', 0.18 xGGrant 12', 0.12 xGGrant 7', 0.10 xGShankland 22', 0.08 xGGrant 31', 0.08 xGShankland 31', 0.08 xGShankland 31', 0.08 xGShankland 66', 0.07 xGShankland 82', 0.06 xGKent 67', 0.05 xGShankland 17', 0.04 xGRowles 90', 0.04 xGKingsley 90', 0.04 xGDevlin 90', 0.02 xGVargas 51', 0.01 xGVargas 10', 0.56 xG, goal35%0.56 xGSix-yard box: 1 shot, 0.56 xG, 1 goal45%0.72 xGCentral box: 9 shots, 0.72 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGWide in the box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals19%0.31 xGEdge of the box: 5 shots, 0.31 xG, 0 goals1%0.01 xGFurther out: 1 shot, 0.01 xG, 0 goals

Kilmarnock

Watkins 45+2', 0.56 xGWatkins 45+2', 0.21 xGFindlay 90+2', 0.17 xGWright 44', 0.12 xGWatkins 5', 0.10 xGWatkins 20', 0.10 xGWright 88', 0.09 xGFindlay 27', 0.07 xGVassell 63', 0.03 xGWatkins 87', 0.03 xGArmstrong 6', 0.01 xGWatkins 67', 0.05 xG, goal61%0.95 xGSix-yard box: 3 shots, 0.95 xG, 0 goals31%0.48 xGCentral box: 5 shots, 0.48 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGWide in the box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals7%0.11 xGEdge of the box: 3 shots, 0.11 xG, 1 goal1%0.01 xGFurther out: 1 shot, 0.01 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

HeartsKilmarnock

1.16 8 shots, 1 goalOpen play0.96 6 shots, 1 goal
0.17 2 shots, 0 goalsCounter-attacks0.00 0 shots, 0 goals
0.28 6 shots, 0 goalsSet pieces0.59 6 shots, 0 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
35 min (37%) · Hearts 0.87, Kilmarnock 0.41 xG
Hearts ahead
59 min (63%) · Hearts 0.74, Kilmarnock 1.14 xG

Line-ups

28812319625777179ClarkLembikisaKentKingsleyCochraneBaningimeTaitVargasGrantForrestShanklandYellow cardYellow cardGoal80'71'71'71'80'Hearts 4-2-3-1Steven Naismith15417611223110239DennisMayoWrightFindlayDeasArmstrongDonnellyPolworthKennedyWatkinsVassellYellow cardYellow cardGoal88'74'74'54'74'Kilmarnock 4-4-2Derek McInnes

Hearts substitutes

  • 71' Rowles for Cochrane
  • 71' Devlin for Tait
  • 71' McKay for Grant
  • 80' Atkinson for Lembikisa
  • 80' Oda for Forrest

Kilmarnock substitutes

  • 54' Watson for Donnelly
  • 74' Ndaba for Deas
  • 74' Mackay-Steven for Armstrong
  • 74' van Veen for Vassell
  • 88' McKenzie for Wright

Players

Hearts

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
ClarkGK900.000.0000.0422
LembikisaRB800.000.1210.1592
Kent CB900.050.0100.0659
KingsleyCB900.040.0200.0354
Cochrane LB710.000.3120.2032
BaningimeDM900.000.0410.0154
TaitDM710.000.000−0.0312
VargasRW9010.760.082−0.0232
GrantAM710.290.1920.0442
ForrestLW800.000.1120.0122
ShanklandST9010.410.1920.2541
RowlesDF190.040.0010.0201
DevlinMF190.020.0000.0101
McKayFW190.000.0910.0330
AtkinsonDF100.000.0200.0220
OdaFW100.000.010−0.0101

Kilmarnock

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
DennisGK900.000.0000.0552
MayoRB900.000.0110.03413
WrightCB880.210.0610.0433
FindlayCB900.240.0100.05714
Deas LB740.000.0000.00111
Armstrong RM740.010.5830.3982
DonnellyCM540.000.000−0.0111
PolworthCM900.000.0500.0454
KennedyLM900.000.1420.2072
WatkinsST9011.050.0310.0045
VassellST7410.030.0410.0832
WatsonMF360.000.0000.0005
NdabaDF160.000.0100.0211
Mackay-StevenFW160.000.2710.2110
van VeenFW160.000.0000.0122
McKenzieMF20.000.0000.0001

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Hearts

Kent and Baningime: 6 passesCochrane and Baningime: 6 passesBaningime and Grant: 6 passesTait and Vargas: 6 passesVargas and Shankland: 6 passesForrest and Shankland: 6 passesClark and Kent: 7 passesLembikisa and Grant: 7 passesKent and Shankland: 7 passesCochrane and Tait: 7 passesCochrane and Grant: 7 passesTait and Grant: 7 passesGrant and Shankland: 7 passesLembikisa and Vargas: 8 passesKingsley and Forrest: 8 passesCochrane and Forrest: 8 passesLembikisa and Kent: 9 passesKingsley and Tait: 9 passesVargas and Grant: 10 passesGrant and Forrest: 11 passesLembikisa and Baningime: 14 passesKingsley and Cochrane: 14 passesLembikisa and Shankland: 15 passesKent and Kingsley: 24 passesClark: 15 completed passesLembikisa: 37 completed passesKent: 35 completed passesKingsley: 39 completed passesCochrane: 31 completed passesBaningime: 30 completed passesTait: 25 completed passesVargas: 15 completed passesGrant: 30 completed passesForrest: 23 completed passesShankland: 23 completed passes28812319625777179ClarkLembikisaKentKingsleyCochraneBaningimeTaitVargasGrantForrestShanklandStarters until 71' · lines join pairs with 6+ passes

Kilmarnock

Mayo and Donnelly: 3 passesFindlay and Deas: 3 passesFindlay and Armstrong: 3 passesFindlay and Donnelly: 3 passesArmstrong and Vassell: 3 passesDonnelly and Kennedy: 3 passesWatkins and Vassell: 3 passesPolworth and Donnelly: 4 passesKennedy and Vassell: 4 passesMayo and Wright: 5 passesDeas and Donnelly: 5 passesArmstrong and Polworth: 5 passesPolworth and Vassell: 5 passesKennedy and Watkins: 5 passesDennis and Wright: 7 passesDeas and Kennedy: 7 passesMayo and Polworth: 12 passesDennis: 9 completed passesMayo: 13 completed passesWright: 12 completed passesFindlay: 11 completed passesDeas: 12 completed passesArmstrong: 8 completed passesPolworth: 21 completed passesDonnelly: 10 completed passesKennedy: 11 completed passesWatkins: 7 completed passesVassell: 9 completed passes15417611312210239DennisMayoWrightFindlayDeasArmstrongPolworthDonnellyKennedyWatkinsVassellStarters until 54' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Hearts

FromToPasses
KingsleyKent16
KentKingsley15
BaningimeLembikisa9
LembikisaVargas9
LembikisaShankland9

Kilmarnock

FromToPasses
PolworthMayo7
MayoPolworth6
MayoWright6
WrightDennis6
WrightMayo6

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Hearts

7+1.814−1.74−2.62−2.29+1.57+1.24−0.44−2.44−1.33−2.24−0.52−3.42−3.81−2.65+1.32−0.72−1.43−1.72+0.23+1.41−0.10−1.32−0.10−0.80−0.70−0.60−0.71+0.32−5.52−4.7FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 30 matches

Kilmarnock

4−0.29+1.712+0.18−0.17+2.69+2.07−0.27+0.86+0.38+1.25−1.06+1.34+0.36+1.75−0.29+3.92−1.53+0.43−0.49+4.53−0.11−0.91+0.31−0.61−1.50−0.90−0.40−0.80−0.22+1.6FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 30 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Hearts

0.010.040.030.030.020.010.010.01−0.010.030.020.050.120.010.02−0.010.020.090.020.050.08−0.030.17LessMore

Kilmarnock

0.030.010.010.010.040.020.010.010.010.010.010.010.020.010.010.020.040.060.06−0.010.040.040.15−0.030.52LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.30AttackHearts1.29 → 1.29Kilmarnock1.24 → 1.24Defence (lower is better)Hearts1.27 → 1.28Kilmarnock1.20 → 1.21

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

HeartsKilmarnock
Expected goals1.411.10
Win44%29%
Expected Points1.581.14
Clean sheet33%24%

Hearts 44%Draw 28%Kilmarnock 29%

Most likely score 1–1, 13%. Both sides score 51%.

Kilmarnock goalsHearts goals0123456+0123456+9%8%5%2%7%3%8%9%5%2%4%4%2%1%1%11%13%

From the forecast as it stood on 30 March 2024: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

Form

Hearts

  1. L1–216 MarRoss County (A)xG 1.27–1.74
  2. W2–03 MarCeltic (H)xG 1.65–2.45
  3. D1–128 FebHibernian (H)xG 1.70–2.66
  4. L0–524 FebRangers (A)xG 0.60–1.47
  5. W2–017 FebMotherwell (H)xG 1.71–0.46
  6. W1–07 FebSt. Johnstone (A)xG 0.70–0.45

Kilmarnock

  1. W5–216 MarSt. Mirren (H)xG 1.91–0.74
  2. D2–22 MarDundee FC (A)xG 1.56–1.53
  3. L1–228 FebRangers (H)xG 1.36–0.73
  4. W2–024 FebAberdeen (H)xG 1.94–0.48
  5. D1–117 FebCeltic (A)xG 0.95–1.49
  6. W1–07 FebLivingston (H)xG 0.75–0.72

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

HeartsKilmarnock
Position3rd4th
Played3030
Won, drawn, lost17–⁠4–⁠911–⁠11–⁠8
Points55 (1.83 per game)44 (1.47 per game)
Expected Points per game1.301.43
Goals39–⁠3039–⁠33
xG per game1.25–⁠1.451.25–⁠1.11
Home: points, xG per game1.87, 1.42–⁠1.381.94, 1.34–⁠0.90
Away: points, xG per game1.80, 1.07–⁠1.530.93, 1.14–⁠1.36
ManagerSteven Naismith (26)Derek McInnes (68)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.30AttackHearts1.29, 3rdKilmarnock1.24, 4thDefence (lower is better)Hearts1.27, 4thKilmarnock1.20, 3rd

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovDecJanFebMarHearts attack: 1.29Kilmarnock attack: 1.241.291.24KilmarnockHeartsDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovDecJanFebMarHearts defence: 1.27Kilmarnock defence: 1.201.271.20

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

HeartsKilmarnock
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−12%+8%−19%−24%
Counter-attacks−4%−39%−3%+16%
Set pieces−14%+13%+20%−6%
Penalties+16%+16%−17%−34%
Headers−33%+4%+24%−23%
Left side−8%−8%−7%−29%
Centre−25%+5%−11%−15%
Right side+9%+21%−2%−5%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Hearts attacking

Hearts createdKilmarnock concededLeft side−8%−5%Centre−25%−15%Right side+9%−29%Open play−12%−24%Counter-attacks−4%+16%Set pieces−14%−6%Headers−33%−23%

Kilmarnock attacking

Kilmarnock createdHearts concededLeft side−7%+21%Centre−11%+5%Right side−2%−8%Open play−19%+8%Counter-attacks−3%−39%Set pieces+20%+13%Headers+24%+4%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

HeartsKilmarnock

1.25xG1.25
1.45xG against1.11
56%Possession47%
13.7Shots12.9
13.7Shots against12.0
4.5Shots on target4.1
1.2Big chances2.0
26.5Touches in the opposition box22.5
464Passes334
76%Pass accuracy64%
6.9Corners6.2
56%Field tilt50%
43.7Final-third entries33.2
13.9Box entries12.1
13.5Passes per defensive action14.3

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Hearts

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level451.281.32
Ahead250.901.65
Behind201.621.50

Kilmarnock

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level461.071.05
Ahead201.281.22
Behind241.551.15

xG by period

Hearts

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.130.223–3
16–300.160.255–5
31–450.160.213–5
46–600.230.288–6
61–750.300.1510–5
76–900.280.3410–6

Kilmarnock

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.120.134–4
16–300.200.146–4
31–450.190.234–11
46–600.240.076–5
61–750.190.239–4
76–900.290.3110–5

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Hearts

GKCBCBCBRWBCMCMCMLWBSTSTClark 30Kingsley 17Sibbick 7Atkinson 6Kent 28Halkett 4Rowles 24Atkinson 7Oda 7Forrest 5Nieuwen… 21NieuwenhofDevlin 8Denholm 6Baningime 19Fraser 3Boyce 3Grant 10Lowry 7Haring 5Cochrane 16Forrest 6Vargas 3Shankland 28Vargas 6Kingsley 6Cochrane 63-5-2 in 16 of 30 starts

Formations: 3-5-2 (16), 4-2-3-1 (12), 3-4-2-1 (1), 4-3-3 (1)

Kilmarnock

GKCBCBCBRWBCMCMCMLWBSTSTDennis 29O'Hara 1Mayo 28Watson 1Wright 20Deas 13Findlay 28Armstro… 29ArmstrongMayo 1Watson 20Davies 2Watkins 1Polworth 13Ndaba 6Deas 4Lyons 20Donnelly 11Magennis 7Kennedy 18Ndaba 9Deas 1Watkins 25Kennedy 4Vassell 25Ndaba 2Findlay 13-5-2 in 12 of 30 starts

Formations: 3-5-2 (12), 4-4-2 (10), 4-1-4-1 (2), 3-4-1-2 (1), 4-5-1 (1), 4-2-3-1 (1), 3-4-3 (1), 3-1-4-2 (1), 5-3-2 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
2 December 2023Kilmarnock0–1HeartsxG 1.16–0.73
13 August 2023Hearts0–0KilmarnockxG 0.39–0.73
1 April 2023Kilmarnock2–1HeartsxG 2.72–0.68
17 December 2022Hearts3–1KilmarnockxG 2.40–1.09
9 October 2022Kilmarnock2–2HeartsxG 1.68–1.17

5 league meetings since 2020/21: Hearts won 2, Kilmarnock won 1, and 2 were drawn. Goals 7–5 and xG 1.07–1.48 per game.

Key players

Hearts

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Shankland302,6892010.460.14
Boyce7631130.360.20
Grant10998240.220.16
Lowry10733010.110.23

Kilmarnock

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Armstrong302,5276100.280.28
Kennedy232,143330.170.17
Vassell252,076710.260.06
Watson211,974520.160.10

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.