Digressive Celts

Matches › 2023/24

Hearts 2–2 Hibernian

Saturday 7 October 2023, 15:00 · Tynecastle Park · Round 8 · Half-time 1–0 · Referee William Collum · Attendance 18,675

Hearts Forrest 28', Doidge 58' (og)

Hibernian Youan 66', 68'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

HeartsHibernian
Goals22
xG1.251.32
Expected Points1.301.41

Hearts 34%Draw 29%Hibernian 37%

Most likely score 1–1, 15%. Final score 2–2, 6%.

Hibernian goalsHearts goals0123456+0123456+7%10%7%3%9%9%4%1%6%8%6%2%2%3%2%1%15%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

00.511.50153045607590HTOffiah on for Kingsley, 45+2'Baningime on for Lowry, 62'Boyce on for Vargas and Grant on for Devlin, 72'Le Fondre on for Doidge, 58'Hanlon on for Bushiri, 77'Boruc on for Marshall and Levitt on for Jeggo, 78'Forrest 28'Doidge 58' (og)Youan 66'Youan 68'Hibernian 1.32Hearts 1.2500.511.50153045607590HTOffiah on for Kingsley, 45+2'Baningime on for Lowry, 62'Boyce on for Vargas and Grant on for Devlin, 72'Le Fondre on for Doidge, 58'Hanlon on for Bushiri, 77'Boruc on for Marshall and Levitt on for Jeggo, 78'Forrest 28'Doidge 58' (og)Youan 66'Youan 68'1.321.25HeartsHibernian

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

HeartsHibernian

1.25 +0.12xG1.32 −0.20
1.20 −0.19xG on target0.60 −1.08
22 +9Shots16 +2
5 +1.1Shots on target3 −2.4
0 −1.6Big chances1 −2.0
37 +9Touches in the opposition box29 −33
49% −15Possession51% −5
391 −115Passes399 −23
71% −7Pass accuracy70% −6
61% −3Field tilt39% −17
42 −7Final-third entries34 −9
21 +6Box entries13 −2
14.4 +4Passes per defensive action8.0 −5
7 −1.7Corners4 −1.7
17 +5Tackles28 +15
5 −2.3Interceptions8 +0.6
26 +10Clearances36 +18
1 −2.0Saves4 +2.1
12 +1Fouls9 −2
0 −0.9Offsides1 −0.1

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Hearts

Sibbick 73', 0.21 xGSibbick 73', 0.17 xGForrest 81', 0.10 xGShankland 26', 0.08 xGBaningime 87', 0.08 xGForrest 81', 0.07 xGRowles 81', 0.06 xGLowry 23', 0.05 xGForrest 74', 0.05 xGShankland 80', 0.05 xGLowry 12', 0.04 xGRowles 12', 0.04 xGDevlin 72', 0.04 xGLowry 6', 0.03 xGSibbick 20', 0.03 xGBoyce 74', 0.03 xGLowry 61', 0.02 xGBoyce 73', 0.02 xGBoyce 80', 0.02 xGGrant 86', 0.02 xGShankland 90+1', 0.02 xGForrest 28', 0.03 xG, goal30%0.37 xGSix-yard box: 2 shots, 0.37 xG, 0 goals30%0.38 xGCentral box: 7 shots, 0.38 xG, 0 goals9%0.11 xGWide in the box: 4 shots, 0.11 xG, 0 goals31%0.39 xGEdge of the box: 9 shots, 0.39 xG, 1 goal0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Hibernian

Vente 45+5', 0.15 xGYouan 60', 0.15 xGDoidge 45+7', 0.14 xGObita 60', 0.12 xGNewell 85', 0.08 xGYouan 2', 0.07 xGBoyle 60', 0.07 xGVente 9', 0.06 xGBoyle 42', 0.06 xGLe Fondre 83', 0.05 xGMiller 45+5', 0.04 xGYouan 38', 0.03 xGYouan 36', 0.02 xGYouan 90', 0.01 xGYouan 66', 0.22 xG, goalYouan 68', 0.06 xG, goal11%0.14 xGSix-yard box: 1 shot, 0.14 xG, 0 goals63%0.82 xGCentral box: 7 shots, 0.82 xG, 2 goals9%0.12 xGWide in the box: 2 shots, 0.12 xG, 0 goals15%0.20 xGEdge of the box: 4 shots, 0.20 xG, 0 goals2%0.03 xGFurther out: 2 shots, 0.03 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

HeartsHibernian

0.77 16 shots, 1 goalOpen play1.12 14 shots, 2 goals
0.47 6 shots, 0 goalsSet pieces0.19 2 shots, 0 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
51 min (52%) · Hearts 1.22, Hibernian 0.27 xG
Hearts ahead
47 min (48%) · Hearts 0.02, Hibernian 1.04 xG

Line-ups

282121531481751779ClarkSibbickKentRowlesKingsleyDevlinNieuwenhofForrestLowryVargasShanklandYellow cardGoalYellow card45+2'72'62'72'Hearts 4-2-3-1Steven Naismith12533217141110239MarshallMillerFishBushiriObitaYouanJeggoNewellBoyleDoidgeVenteYellow cardGoalGoalOwn goal78'77'78'58'Hibernian 4-4-2Nick Montgomery

Hearts substitutes

  • 45+2' Offiah for Kingsley
  • 62' Baningime for Lowry
  • 72' Grant for Devlin
  • 72' Boyce for Vargas

Hibernian substitutes

  • 58' Le Fondre for Doidge
  • 77' Hanlon for Bushiri
  • 78' Boruc for Marshall
  • 78' Levitt for Jeggo

Players

Hearts

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
ClarkGK900.000.0000.0211
SibbickRB900.400.1330.1367
KentCB9010.000.0010.0227
RowlesCB900.100.0200.1488
KingsleyLB450.000.0000.0244
Devlin DM720.040.0300.0533
NieuwenhofDM900.000.0410.0669
ForrestRW9010.240.1920.22103
LowryAM620.150.0200.0631
VargasLW720.000.0310.0722
Shankland ST900.150.1630.0901
OffiahDF450.000.0120.0238
BaningimeMF280.080.0820.0410
GrantMF180.020.0200.0320
BoyceFW180.070.0310.0512

Hibernian

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
MarshallGK780.000.0000.0230
MillerRB900.040.0200.0447
Fish CB900.000.0210.07919
BushiriCB770.000.0010.0437
ObitaLB900.120.0410.0766
YouanRM9020.550.2100.2489
JeggoCM780.000.0510.0116
NewellCM900.080.0710.12810
BoyleLM900.130.0410.0432
DoidgeST580.140.000−0.0322
VenteST900.200.0200.0328
Le FondreFW320.050.0000.0102
HanlonDF130.000.0000.0112
BorucGK120.000.0000.0001
LevittMF120.000.0600.0321

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Hearts

Rowles and Vargas: 3 passesKent and Kingsley: 3 passesKingsley and Devlin: 3 passesKingsley and Nieuwenhof: 3 passesDevlin and Nieuwenhof: 3 passesSibbick and Kent: 4 passesSibbick and Lowry: 4 passesKent and Nieuwenhof: 4 passesKingsley and Lowry: 4 passesDevlin and Vargas: 4 passesForrest and Vargas: 4 passesLowry and Vargas: 4 passesClark and Rowles: 5 passesRowles and Devlin: 6 passesKingsley and Vargas: 6 passesForrest and Lowry: 6 passesKent and Devlin: 7 passesDevlin and Lowry: 8 passesRowles and Kingsley: 11 passesSibbick and Forrest: 12 passesRowles and Kent: 13 passesClark: 6 completed passesSibbick: 19 completed passesRowles: 23 completed passesKent: 20 completed passesKingsley: 19 completed passesDevlin: 19 completed passesNieuwenhof: 8 completed passesForrest: 10 completed passesLowry: 9 completed passesVargas: 12 completed passesShankland: 4 completed passes282115231481751779ClarkSibbickRowlesKentKingsleyDevlinNieuwenhofForrestLowryVargasShanklandStarters until 45+2' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Hibernian

Marshall and Doidge: 4 passesMiller and Youan: 4 passesMiller and Newell: 4 passesFish and Doidge: 4 passesObita and Vente: 4 passesYouan and Jeggo: 4 passesYouan and Boyle: 4 passesJeggo and Newell: 4 passesVente and Doidge: 4 passesBushiri and Obita: 5 passesYouan and Doidge: 5 passesBushiri and Jeggo: 6 passesObita and Youan: 6 passesBushiri and Fish: 7 passesBushiri and Newell: 7 passesFish and Newell: 7 passesObita and Newell: 7 passesObita and Doidge: 7 passesMarshall and Fish: 8 passesMiller and Vente: 8 passesMiller and Fish: 9 passesFish and Jeggo: 9 passesMarshall and Bushiri: 12 passesMarshall: 18 completed passesMiller: 16 completed passesBushiri: 23 completed passesFish: 24 completed passesObita: 25 completed passesYouan: 14 completed passesJeggo: 20 completed passesNewell: 20 completed passesBoyle: 4 completed passesVente: 13 completed passesDoidge: 6 completed passes12335217141110923MarshallMillerBushiriFishObitaYouanJeggoNewellBoyleVenteDoidgeStarters until 58' · lines join pairs with 4+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Hearts

FromToPasses
KentRowles13
SibbickForrest8
RowlesKingsley8
DevlinRowles8
RowlesKent7

Hibernian

FromToPasses
ObitaNewell9
NewellObita9
BushiriMarshall8
JeggoFish8
MarshallFish8

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Hearts

4−3.37−1.118+9.111+4.44−1.49−0.18+3.14+0.610+3.95−1.36−0.66+1.42−1.914+10.08+1.43−1.34−0.75+2.34−0.12−3.90−1.61−0.61−0.41−0.45+3.31+0.12+1.00−0.71+0.40−1.1FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 7 matches

Hibernian

0−6.66−1.129+15.618+11.97+2.79+3.910+3.79+3.68−0.19+1.16−1.410+5.33−0.18+1.34−2.714+7.74+1.12−0.17+3.01−3.43+0.92+0.41+0.420.02−0.30−0.60−0.40−0.31+0.60−1.0FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 7 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Hearts

0.010.010.010.010.010.030.030.010.040.030.060.030.060.070.050.080.150.070.020.08−0.05−0.02−0.010.24LessMore

Hibernian

0.010.020.010.030.020.020.010.030.020.020.040.020.020.030.020.040.040.04−0.030.040.05−0.050.050.060.070.07LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.29AttackHearts1.28 → 1.28Hibernian1.32 → 1.33Defence (lower is better)Hearts1.28 → 1.28Hibernian1.20 → 1.21

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Hearts
Top six67%66%−1
11th2%2%0
Bottom1%1%0
Hibernian
Top six67%66%−1
11th2%1%−1
Bottom1%<1%−1

From the forecast before the match (7 October 2023): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

HeartsHibernian
Expected goals1.421.18
Win42%31%
Expected Points1.531.19
Clean sheet31%24%

Hearts 42%Draw 27%Hibernian 31%

Most likely score 1–1, 13%. Both sides score 53%.

Hibernian goalsHearts goals0123456+0123456+8%8%5%2%7%3%8%9%5%2%4%4%2%1%1%1%10%13%

From the forecast as it stood on 7 October 2023: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowHearts winDrawHibernian win
Hearts
Top six67%76%66%56%
11th2%1%2%2%
Bottom1%<1%1%1%
Hibernian
Top six67%59%66%79%
11th2%3%1%1%
Bottom1%1%<1%<1%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Hearts

  1. W1–030 SepRoss County (A)xG 0.98–0.40
  2. L0–123 SepSt. Mirren (A)xG 1.19–1.59
  3. W2–016 SepAberdeen (H)xG 1.18–0.53
  4. L0–13 SepMotherwell (H)xG 1.51–1.14
  5. L0–127 AugDundee FC (A)xG 0.86–1.52
  6. D0–013 AugKilmarnock (H)xG 0.39–0.73

Hibernian

  1. D0–030 SepDundee FC (H)xG 2.62–0.55
  2. W2–023 SepSt. Johnstone (H)xG 2.78–0.62
  3. D2–216 SepKilmarnock (A)xG 0.92–0.83
  4. W2–03 SepAberdeen (A)xG 1.23–0.98
  5. L2–326 AugLivingston (H)xG 0.81–1.68
  6. L1–213 AugMotherwell (A)xG 0.86–0.60

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

HeartsHibernian
Position4th6th
Played77
Won, drawn, lost3–⁠1–⁠32–⁠2–⁠3
Points10 (1.43 per game)8 (1.14 per game)
Expected Points per game1.451.67
Goals5–⁠311–⁠10
xG per game1.13–⁠0.981.52–⁠0.97
Home: points, xG per game1.33, 1.03–⁠0.801.00, 1.91–⁠1.10
Away: points, xG per game1.50, 1.20–⁠1.111.33, 1.00–⁠0.80
ManagerSteven Naismith (3)Nick Montgomery (3)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.29AttackHearts1.28, 4thHibernian1.32, 3rdDefence (lower is better)Hearts1.28, 4thHibernian1.20, 3rd

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0SepHearts attack: 1.28Hibernian attack: 1.321.321.28HibernianHeartsDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0SepHearts defence: 1.28Hibernian defence: 1.201.281.20

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

HeartsHibernian
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play+1%−30%+4%−35%
Counter-attacks+12%−46%−6%+45%
Set pieces−32%+12%+49%−34%
Penalties−100%−100%averageaverage
Headers−27%−6%+30%+19%
Left side−24%−22%+24%−33%
Centre−1%−29%+7%−40%
Right side−4%+4%+24%−3%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Hearts attacking

Hearts createdHibernian concededLeft side−24%−3%Centre−1%−40%Right side−4%−33%Open play+1%−35%Counter-attacks+12%+45%Set pieces−32%−34%Headers−27%+19%

Hibernian attacking

Hibernian createdHearts concededLeft side+24%+4%Centre+7%−29%Right side+24%−22%Open play+4%−30%Counter-attacks−6%−46%Set pieces+49%+12%Headers+30%−6%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

HeartsHibernian

1.13xG1.52
0.98xG against0.97
64%Possession56%
13.1Shots13.9
10.9Shots against10.7
3.9Shots on target5.4
1.6Big chances3.0
28.1Touches in the opposition box62.0
506Passes422
78%Pass accuracy76%
8.7Corners5.7
64%Field tilt56%
49.1Final-third entries42.7
15.3Box entries14.6
10.0Passes per defensive action12.8

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Hearts

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level500.811.21
Ahead161.460.65
Behind241.560.72

Hibernian

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level451.221.19
Ahead202.150.81
Behind251.540.70

xG by period

Hearts

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.040.251–1
16–300.100.190–1
31–450.070.070–0
46–600.270.260–0
61–750.360.063–1
76–900.300.151–0

Hibernian

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.100.221–2
16–300.280.080–1
31–450.120.151–0
46–600.250.111–0
61–750.200.264–4
76–900.560.164–3

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Hearts

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTClark 7Atkinson 5Offiah 1Sibbick 1Kent 7Rowles 7Kingsley 6Cochrane 1Devlin 4Offiah 1Baningime 1Haring 4Nieuwenhof 2Denholm 1Oda 5Vargas 1Devlin 1Boyce 3Nieuwenhof 1Shankland 1Vargas 3Lowry 2Denholm 1Shankland 6Tagawa 14-2-3-1 in 6 of 7 starts

Formations: 4-2-3-1 (6), 4-3-3 (1)

Hibernian

GKRBCBCBLBRMCMCMLMSTSTMarshall 7Miller 4Fish 1Delferriere 1Fish 6Hanlon 4Bushiri 3Stevenson 1Stevenson 4Obita 2Levitt 1Boyle 4Miller 1Youan 1Jeggo 6Doyle-Hayes 1Newell 7Youan 4Boyle 2Obita 1Vente 5Le Fondre 2Doidge 4Campbell 2Delferriere 14-4-2 in 3 of 7 starts

Formations: 4-4-2 (3), 4-3-3 (2), 3-5-2 (1), 4-2-3-1 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
27 May 2023Hearts1–1HibernianxG 0.11–1.50
15 April 2023Hibernian1–0HeartsxG 0.99–0.89
2 January 2023Hearts3–0HibernianxG 1.76–1.19
7 August 2022Hibernian1–1HeartsxG 1.50–0.96
9 April 2022Hearts3–1HibernianxG 0.94–0.52
1 February 2022Hibernian0–0HeartsxG 1.02–1.37

7 league meetings since 2020/21: Hearts won 2, Hibernian won 1, and 4 were drawn. Goals 8–4 and xG 1.04–1.12 per game.

Key players

Hearts

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Shankland7630100.300.17
Kingsley6540000.050.18
Kent7630000.060.03
Rowles7604000.030.04

Hibernian

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Youan5482020.300.17
Boyle6557100.150.27
Newell7630020.030.18
Fish7630000.090.01

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.