Digressive Celts

Matches › 2025/26

Falkirk 2–2 Hibernian

Tuesday 23 September 2025, 19:45 · Falkirk Stadium · Round 3 · Half-time 1–2 · Referee Calum Scott · Attendance 7,491

Falkirk MacIver 45+1', Henderson 64'

Hibernian Boyle 30' (pen), McGrath 42'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

FalkirkHibernian
Goals22
xG1.182.43
Non-penalty xG1.181.64
Expected Points0.562.24

Falkirk 12%Draw 20%Hibernian 68%

Most likely score 1–2, 13%. Final score 2–2, 9%.

Hibernian goalsFalkirk goals0123456+0123456+5%8%7%3%1%8%5%2%5%9%7%3%1%2%2%13%11%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

01230153045607590HTArfield on for Tait, Agyeman on for Miller, and Graham on for MacIver, 74'Oliver on for Williams, 87'Klidje on for Bowie, 59'C. Cadden on for Chaiwa and Hoilett on for Boyle, 80'Campbell on for McGrath and Levitt on for Barlaser, 86'MacIver 45+1'Henderson 64'Boyle 30' (pen)McGrath 42'Hibernian 2.43Falkirk 1.1801230153045607590HTArfield on for Tait, Agyeman on for Miller, and Graham on for MacIver, 74'Oliver on for Williams, 87'Klidje on for Bowie, 59'C. Cadden on for Chaiwa and Hoilett on for Boyle, 80'Campbell on for McGrath and Levitt on for Barlaser, 86'MacIver 45+1'Henderson 64'Boyle 30' (pen)McGrath 42'2.431.18FalkirkHibernian

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

FalkirkHibernian

1.18 −0.01xG2.43 +0.26
1.18Non-penalty xG1.64
2.10 +1.06xG on target2.70 +0.79
8 −5Shots15 −2
6 +1.5Shots on target7 +0.5
3 +0.8Big chances3 −0.2
16 −9Touches in the opposition box21 −10
51% −7Possession49% −10
406 −28Passes382 −111
79% +1Pass accuracy80% −5
59% +3Field tilt41% −23
33 −7Final-third entries38 −5
12 −1Box entries10 −4
12.8 −1Passes per defensive action15.1 −1
5 +0.8Corners5 −2.8
15 −1.5Tackles12 +2.8
11 +5.8Interceptions12 +6.0
25 −3Clearances22 −2
5 +1.8Saves4 +2.0
11 +0.2Fouls13 +4.0
4 −0.2Offsides2 +0.8

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Falkirk

Williams 2', 0.27 xGMacIver 45', 0.20 xGMacIver 74', 0.09 xGMacIver 8', 0.06 xGMiller 32', 0.05 xGWilliams 83', 0.02 xGMacIver 45+1', 0.43 xG, goalHenderson 64', 0.07 xG, goal36%0.42 xGSix-yard box: 1 shot, 0.42 xG, 1 goal50%0.59 xGCentral box: 4 shots, 0.59 xG, 1 goal13%0.15 xGWide in the box: 2 shots, 0.15 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGEdge of the box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals2%0.02 xGFurther out: 1 shot, 0.02 xG, 0 goals

Hibernian

Boyle 18', 0.37 xGBowie 22', 0.27 xGBushiri 20', 0.18 xGBowie 15', 0.14 xGBowie 42', 0.14 xGKlidje 67', 0.05 xGBoyle 9', 0.04 xGN. Cadden 22', 0.03 xGBarlaser 33', 0.03 xGBowie 14', 0.02 xGBowie 24', 0.02 xGKlidje 72', 0.02 xGN. Cadden 63', 0.01 xGMcGrath 42', 0.33 xG, goal11%0.18 xGSix-yard box: 1 shot, 0.18 xG, 0 goals79%1.30 xGCentral box: 6 shots, 1.30 xG, 1 goal3%0.05 xGWide in the box: 2 shots, 0.05 xG, 0 goals4%0.07 xGEdge of the box: 3 shots, 0.07 xG, 0 goals3%0.05 xGFurther out: 2 shots, 0.05 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

FalkirkHibernian

0.85 6 shots, 1 goalOpen play0.57 7 shots, 0 goals
0.27 1 shot, 0 goalsCounter-attacks0.84 3 shots, 1 goal
0.07 1 shot, 1 goalSet pieces0.23 4 shots, 0 goals
0.00 0 shots, 0 goalsPenalties0.79 1 shot, 1 goal

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
58 min (62%) · Falkirk 0.44, Hibernian 1.93 xG
Hibernian ahead
35 min (38%) · Falkirk 0.74, Hibernian 0.50 xG

Line-ups

19215531782421299BainAdamsNeilsonHendersonMcCannCartwrightSpencerWilliamsTaitMillerMacIverGoalYellow cardGoal87'74'74'74'Falkirk 4-2-3-1John McGlynn1533212014221910179SallingerO'HoraBushiriObitaMulliganChaiwaBarlaserN. CaddenBoyleMcGrathBowieYellow cardGoalGoalYellow card80'86'80'86'59'Hibernian 3-4-2-1David Gray

Falkirk substitutes

  • 74' Arfield for Tait
  • 74' Agyeman for Miller
  • 74' Graham for MacIver · yellow card 90+2'
  • 87' Oliver for Williams

Hibernian substitutes

  • 59' Klidje for Bowie
  • 80' C. Cadden for Chaiwa
  • 80' Hoilett for Boyle
  • 86' Levitt for Barlaser
  • 86' Campbell for McGrath

Players

Falkirk

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
BainGK900.000.0000.0552
AdamsRB900.000.1000.2697
NeilsonCB900.000.0100.0847
HendersonCB9010.070.1000.11314
McCannLB900.000.2110.3956
CartwrightDM900.000.0100.0324
Spencer DM900.000.1210.0764
WilliamsRW8720.290.4430.2961
TaitAM740.000.010−0.0102
MillerLW740.050.0500.0944
MacIverST7410.780.2610.1212
ArfieldMF160.000.0200.0111
AgyemanFW160.000.0110.0131
Graham FW160.000.020−0.0110
OliverFW30.000.0000.0000

Hibernian

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
SallingerGK900.000.0000.0221
O'HoraCB900.000.0000.06510
BushiriCB900.180.0000.0127
ObitaCB900.000.0100.0746
MulliganRWB900.000.0110.0563
Chaiwa CM800.000.0620.1334
BarlaserCM860.030.0220.0660
N. CaddenLWB900.040.0410.20197
BoyleAM8011.200.3120.2640
McGrathAM8610.330.3630.0562
Bowie ST5910.580.181−0.0101
KlidjeFW310.070.030−0.0500
C. CaddenMF100.000.0000.0122
HoilettMF100.000.000−0.0100
LevittMF40.000.0000.0111
CampbellMF40.000.0000.0002

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Falkirk

Adams and Cartwright: 5 passesMcCann and Cartwright: 5 passesSpencer and MacIver: 5 passesWilliams and Miller: 5 passesBain and Spencer: 6 passesHenderson and Cartwright: 6 passesHenderson and Tait: 6 passesCartwright and Tait: 6 passesWilliams and MacIver: 6 passesSpencer and Williams: 7 passesWilliams and Tait: 7 passesAdams and Williams: 8 passesHenderson and Spencer: 8 passesSpencer and Cartwright: 8 passesSpencer and Miller: 8 passesHenderson and Neilson: 10 passesMcCann and Tait: 10 passesAdams and Neilson: 11 passesMcCann and Spencer: 11 passesBain and Neilson: 12 passesBain and Henderson: 14 passesNeilson and Spencer: 15 passesHenderson and McCann: 16 passesAdams and Spencer: 18 passesBain: 21 completed passesAdams: 27 completed passesHenderson: 36 completed passesNeilson: 30 completed passesMcCann: 29 completed passesSpencer: 50 completed passesCartwright: 21 completed passesWilliams: 16 completed passesTait: 24 completed passesMiller: 12 completed passesMacIver: 9 completed passes19251538172421299BainAdamsHendersonNeilsonMcCannSpencerCartwrightWilliamsTaitMillerMacIverStarters until 74' · lines join pairs with 5+ passes

Hibernian

Sallinger and O'Hora: 4 passesSallinger and Mulligan: 4 passesO'Hora and Barlaser: 4 passesO'Hora and McGrath: 4 passesChaiwa and Bowie: 4 passesBoyle and Bowie: 4 passesMulligan and Barlaser: 5 passesMulligan and McGrath: 5 passesN. Cadden and Barlaser: 5 passesObita and McGrath: 6 passesMulligan and Chaiwa: 6 passesBarlaser and McGrath: 6 passesBoyle and McGrath: 6 passesSallinger and Obita: 7 passesN. Cadden and McGrath: 7 passesBarlaser and Chaiwa: 7 passesChaiwa and McGrath: 7 passesO'Hora and Chaiwa: 8 passesSallinger and Bushiri: 9 passesBushiri and O'Hora: 9 passesBushiri and Obita: 9 passesObita and Barlaser: 14 passesO'Hora and Mulligan: 15 passesObita and N. Cadden: 16 passesSallinger: 19 completed passesBushiri: 16 completed passesO'Hora: 26 completed passesObita: 31 completed passesMulligan: 16 completed passesN. Cadden: 19 completed passesBarlaser: 23 completed passesChaiwa: 22 completed passesBoyle: 7 completed passesMcGrath: 23 completed passesBowie: 9 completed passes1335212019221410179SallingerBushiriO'HoraObitaMulliganN. CaddenBarlaserChaiwaBoyleMcGrathBowieStarters until 59' · lines join pairs with 4+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Falkirk

FromToPasses
McCannHenderson13
SpencerAdams12
AdamsWilliams11
SpencerNeilson10
AdamsNeilson9

Hibernian

FromToPasses
ObitaN. Cadden16
O'HoraMulligan12
ObitaBarlaser12
BushiriO'Hora10
BarlaserObita10

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Falkirk

7−0.24−0.514+2.85−1.23−0.23−3.57+1.55−2.280.05−1.26+0.56+1.00−4.04−0.211+5.53−1.03−2.07+6.02−0.85+0.84+0.50−1.80−0.51−0.80−4.50−0.51+1.02+1.80−0.20−1.0FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 4 matches

Hibernian

4+1.02−2.590.06+0.23−1.87+3.55−1.24+0.58+3.213+7.85+0.54−1.05+2.01−4.05+1.07+3.24−0.21−2.00−2.85+1.51−1.03+2.510.01+0.50−3.21+0.810.01+0.50−0.80−0.2FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 4 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Falkirk

0.030.010.020.040.020.010.010.040.040.020.010.030.210.040.010.010.020.060.02−0.03−0.010.070.230.10−0.010.45LessMore

Hibernian

0.010.020.010.020.010.010.020.050.010.010.020.070.050.030.020.090.010.12−0.010.030.020.05−0.050.21LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.37AttackFalkirk1.01 → 1.02Hibernian1.55 → 1.57Defence (lower is better)Falkirk1.71 → 1.76Hibernian1.18 → 1.18

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Falkirk
Top six11%12%+1
11th18%18%0
Bottom35%32%−3
Hibernian
Top six90%88%−2
Livingston
11th24%23%−1
Bottom27%27%0
Dundee FC
Top six6%6%0
11th24%24%0
Bottom21%22%+1

From the forecast before the match (23 September 2025): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

FalkirkHibernian
Expected goals1.021.75
Win21%54%
Expected Points0.891.87
Clean sheet17%36%

Falkirk 21%Draw 25%Hibernian 54%

Most likely score 1–1, 12%. Both sides score 53%.

Hibernian goalsFalkirk goals0123456+0123456+7%6%2%6%6%2%3%6%5%3%1%1%2%2%1%10%10%12%10%

From the forecast as it stood on 23 September 2025: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowFalkirk winDrawHibernian win
Falkirk
Top six11%18%12%7%
11th18%16%18%19%
Bottom35%24%32%41%
Hibernian
Top six90%84%88%93%
Livingston
11th24%23%23%24%
Bottom27%31%27%25%
Dundee FC
Top six6%5%6%6%
11th24%24%24%24%
Bottom21%25%22%19%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Falkirk

  1. L1–213 SepSt. Mirren (H)xG 0.70–1.57
  2. W1–031 AugAberdeen (A)xG 1.26–0.96
  3. L1–39 AugLivingston (A)xG 0.78–1.59
  4. D2–23 AugDundee United (H)xG 2.02–1.19

Hibernian

  1. D3–313 SepDundee United (H)xG 3.05–1.87
  2. D1–131 AugSt. Mirren (H)xG 2.42–0.85
  3. D2–210 AugKilmarnock (H)xG 1.77–0.94
  4. W2–13 AugDundee FC (A)xG 1.42–0.13
  5. D2–217 MayRangers (H)xG 1.29–2.62
  6. D2–214 MaySt. Mirren (A)xG 1.34–0.70

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

FalkirkHibernian
Position10th3rd
Played44
Won, drawn, lost1–⁠1–⁠21–⁠3–⁠0
Points4 (1.00 per game)6 (1.50 per game)
Expected Points per game1.222.27
Goals5–⁠78–⁠7
xG per game1.19–⁠1.332.17–⁠0.95
Home: points, xG per game0.50, 1.36–⁠1.381.00, 2.41–⁠1.22
Away: points, xG per game1.50, 1.02–⁠1.273.00, 1.42–⁠0.13
ManagerJohn McGlynn (4)David Gray (44)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.37AttackFalkirk1.01, 11thHibernian1.55, 3rdDefence (lower is better)Falkirk1.71, 11thHibernian1.18, 4th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0SepFalkirk attack: 1.01Hibernian attack: 1.551.551.01HibernianFalkirkDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0SepFalkirk defence: 1.71Hibernian defence: 1.181.711.18

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

FalkirkHibernian
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play+3%−1%+10%−15%
Counter-attacks−51%−4%+49%+93%
Set pieces+11%−5%+112%−47%
Penalties−67%+41%+57%−69%
Headers+29%+7%+42%−28%
Left side−29%−33%+92%−4%
Centre+21%+13%+39%−27%
Right side−13%−6%+19%−1%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't. Until a side has played six matches its figures are blended with last season's, or with the league average where there is no last season to use.

Matchups

Falkirk attacking

Falkirk createdHibernian concededLeft side−29%−1%Centre+21%−27%Right side−13%−4%Open play+3%−15%Counter-attacks−51%+93%Set pieces+11%−47%Headers+29%−28%

Hibernian attacking

Hibernian createdFalkirk concededLeft side+92%−6%Centre+39%+13%Right side+19%−33%Open play+10%−1%Counter-attacks+49%−4%Set pieces+112%−5%Headers+42%+7%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

FalkirkHibernian

1.19xG2.17
1.33xG against0.95
58%Possession60%
12.8Shots17.5
11.2Shots against8.8
4.5Shots on target6.5
2.2Big chances3.2
25.0Touches in the opposition box31.5
434Passes493
78%Pass accuracy85%
4.2Corners7.8
56%Field tilt64%
39.8Final-third entries42.8
13.0Box entries14.0
13.5Passes per defensive action16.2

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Falkirk

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level591.201.21
Ahead40.120.12
Behind281.321.75

Hibernian

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level521.240.94
Ahead222.100.81
Behind165.301.16

xG by period

Falkirk

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.200.050–0
16–300.200.280–1
31–450.170.290–2
46–600.140.281–0
61–750.350.203–2
76–900.130.231–2

Hibernian

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.250.080–1
16–300.340.054–0
31–450.220.361–3
46–600.340.221–2
61–750.540.111–1
76–900.480.131–0

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Falkirk

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTBain 4Adams 4Neilson 3McCann 1Henderson 4McCann 3Neilson 1Tait 2Cartwright 2Spencer 4Arfield 2Miller 2Tait 2Ross 1Nesbitt 1Miller 2Arfield 1Ross 1MacIver 3Graham 14-2-3-1 in every start

Hibernian

GKCBCBCBRWBCMCMLWBRWSTLWSmith 4O'Hora 3Hanley 2Bushiri 4Iredale 3C. Cadden 3Mulligan 1Mulligan 2McGrath 1Chaiwa 1Levitt 4N. Cadden 2Obita 2Boyle 3Youan 1Bowie 3Klidje 1Hoilett 3McGrath 13-4-3 in 2 of 4 starts

Formations: 3-4-3 (2), 5-4-1 (1), 3-4-2-1 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Key players

Hibernian

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Bowie8934910.510.09
Hoilett221,753450.290.24
N. Cadden221,898570.220.29
Youan12963310.380.11

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes. Until a side has played six matches, last season's minutes at the club count too.