Digressive Celts

Matches › 2023/24

Hibernian 0–1 Hearts

Wednesday 27 December 2023, 20:00 · Easter Road Stadium · Round 20 · Half-time 0–0 · Referee John Beaton · Attendance 20,150

Hearts Shankland 90+3'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

HibernianHearts
Goals01
xG1.851.30
Non-penalty xG1.060.51
Expected Points1.780.90

Hibernian 49%Draw 32%Hearts 19%

Most likely score 1–1, 19%. Final score 0–1, 4%.

Hearts goalsHibernian goals0123456+0123456+4%2%4%9%2%4%10%2%2%9%5%1%3%1%19%18%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

00.511.520153045607590HTYouan on for Campbell, 53'Jeggo on for Levitt, 83'Doidge on for Vente, 88'McKay on for Denholm, 46'Vargas on for Forrest, 60'Shankland 90+3'Hibernian 1.85Hearts 1.3000.511.520153045607590HTYouan on for Campbell, 53'Jeggo on for Levitt, 83'Doidge on for Vente, 88'McKay on for Denholm, 46'Vargas on for Forrest, 60'Shankland 90+3'1.851.30HibernianHearts

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

HibernianHearts

1.85 +0.79xG1.30 +0.24
1.06Non-penalty xG0.51
1.21 +0.05xG on target0.84 −0.32
16 +6Shots10 −3
3 −0.6Shots on target3 −1.1
1 −0.8Big chances1 −0.1
28 +7Touches in the opposition box26 +1
48% −4Possession52% −3
332 −89Passes376 −78
70% −7Pass accuracy72% −2
47% +2Field tilt53% 0
30 −4Final-third entries28 −13
14 +3Box entries10 −2
9.2 −7Passes per defensive action13.8 +1
6 +1.6Corners5 −2.2
22 +8Tackles20 +6
16 +8.8Interceptions7 +0.2
23 −1Clearances30 +8
2 −1.2Saves3 +0.3
11 +1.4Fouls10 −1.6
1 −0.7Offsides1 +0.2

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Hibernian

Vente 14', 0.27 xGVente 72', 0.15 xGVente 15', 0.10 xGYouan 80', 0.09 xGCampbell 32', 0.06 xGBushiri 90+7', 0.06 xGBushiri 60', 0.05 xGBushiri 33', 0.04 xGMiller 72', 0.04 xGTavares 80', 0.04 xGYouan 90+2', 0.04 xGJeggo 90+7', 0.04 xGBushiri 43', 0.03 xGJeggo 85', 0.03 xGTavares 43', 0.02 xG0%0.00 xGSix-yard box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals71%0.75 xGCentral box: 8 shots, 0.75 xG, 0 goals10%0.11 xGWide in the box: 3 shots, 0.11 xG, 0 goals19%0.20 xGEdge of the box: 4 shots, 0.20 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Hearts

Forrest 11', 0.17 xGShankland 83', 0.07 xGVargas 68', 0.06 xGShankland 13', 0.05 xGCochrane 78', 0.05 xGMcKay 49', 0.03 xGShankland 44', 0.01 xGAtkinson 54', 0.01 xGShankland 90+3', 0.05 xG, goal0%0.00 xGSix-yard box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals25%0.13 xGCentral box: 2 shots, 0.13 xG, 1 goal51%0.26 xGWide in the box: 4 shots, 0.26 xG, 0 goals14%0.07 xGEdge of the box: 2 shots, 0.07 xG, 0 goals10%0.05 xGFurther out: 1 shot, 0.05 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

HibernianHearts

0.52 6 shots, 0 goalsOpen play0.28 6 shots, 1 goal
0.15 1 shot, 0 goalsCounter-attacks0.23 3 shots, 0 goals
0.39 8 shots, 0 goalsSet pieces0.00 0 shots, 0 goals
0.79 1 shot, 0 goalsPenalties0.79 1 shot, 0 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
93 min (96%) · Hibernian 1.75, Hearts 1.30 xG
Hearts ahead
4 min (4%) · Hibernian 0.10, Hearts 0.00 xG

Line-ups

12533216113292910MarshallMillerFishBushiriObitaLevittNewellCampbellVenteTavaresBoyleYellow cardYellow card83'53'88'Hibernian 4-2-3-1Nick Montgomery28321513226819179ClarkKingsleyKentRowlesAtkinsonDenholmBaningimeNieuwenhofCochraneForrestShanklandYellow cardYellow cardYellow cardGoal46'60'Hearts 3-5-2Steven Naismith

Hibernian substitutes

  • 53' Youan for Campbell
  • 83' Jeggo for Levitt
  • 88' Doidge for Vente

Hearts substitutes

  • 46' McKay for Denholm
  • 60' Vargas for Forrest

Players

Hibernian

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
MarshallGK900.000.0000.0210
MillerRB900.040.0200.04511
FishCB900.000.0410.00513
BushiriCB900.180.0200.1278
ObitaLB900.000.0100.10109
Levitt DM830.000.3510.1744
NewellDM900.000.1210.0756
CampbellRW530.060.0000.0213
VenteAM880.520.0110.0514
TavaresLW900.060.0900.2673
Boyle ST900.790.0520.0132
YouanFW370.130.0200.0151
JeggoMF70.070.0000.0000
DoidgeFW20.000.0210.0310

Hearts

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
ClarkGK900.000.0000.0211
KingsleyCB900.000.0310.1098
KentCB900.000.0000.05510
Rowles CB900.000.0000.04311
Atkinson RWB900.010.0200.01510
DenholmCM460.000.011−0.0111
BaningimeCM900.000.010−0.0135
Nieuwenhof CM900.000.2800.2446
CochraneLWB900.050.0410.0124
ForrestST600.170.050−0.0711
ShanklandST9010.980.1510.0553
McKayFW440.030.0210.0233
VargasMF300.060.0000.0121

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Hibernian

Marshall and Obita: 3 passesMarshall and Newell: 3 passesMiller and Levitt: 3 passesLevitt and Campbell: 3 passesBushiri and Newell: 4 passesObita and Newell: 5 passesObita and Tavares: 5 passesMarshall and Bushiri: 6 passesMiller and Fish: 7 passesMiller and Campbell: 7 passesBushiri and Fish: 8 passesBushiri and Obita: 10 passesObita and Levitt: 12 passesMarshall: 11 completed passesMiller: 14 completed passesBushiri: 19 completed passesFish: 11 completed passesObita: 18 completed passesNewell: 10 completed passesLevitt: 13 completed passesCampbell: 7 completed passesVente: 2 completed passesTavares: 4 completed passesBoyle: 2 completed passes12335211163292910MarshallMillerBushiriFishObitaNewellLevittCampbellVenteTavaresBoyleStarters until 53' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Hearts

Rowles and Atkinson: 3 passesRowles and Nieuwenhof: 3 passesRowles and Shankland: 3 passesKent and Cochrane: 3 passesKingsley and Baningime: 3 passesAtkinson and Shankland: 3 passesNieuwenhof and Baningime: 3 passesBaningime and Denholm: 3 passesDenholm and Shankland: 3 passesRowles and Baningime: 4 passesAtkinson and Denholm: 4 passesCochrane and Nieuwenhof: 4 passesClark and Rowles: 5 passesCochrane and Baningime: 5 passesKingsley and Atkinson: 6 passesKingsley and Denholm: 6 passesCochrane and Shankland: 6 passesKent and Kingsley: 7 passesKent and Atkinson: 8 passesKent and Baningime: 8 passesRowles and Kent: 10 passesRowles and Cochrane: 11 passesClark: 5 completed passesRowles: 22 completed passesKent: 20 completed passesKingsley: 14 completed passesAtkinson: 19 completed passesCochrane: 21 completed passesNieuwenhof: 9 completed passesBaningime: 16 completed passesDenholm: 7 completed passesForrest: 5 completed passesShankland: 6 completed passes28152313198622179ClarkRowlesKentKingsleyAtkinsonCochraneNieuwenhofBaningimeDenholmForrestShanklandStarters until 46' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Hibernian

FromToPasses
MarshallBushiri12
MillerLevitt9
BushiriObita9
FishMiller8
BushiriFish7

Hearts

FromToPasses
RowlesCochrane15
RowlesKent10
KentAtkinson8
KentBaningime8
CochraneShankland8

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Hibernian

5−0.812+4.67−0.41−3.94−3.110+3.42−3.34−3.511+4.912+4.65+1.12−0.75−0.76+0.69+2.94+1.03+1.17+4.31−1.75+3.41−0.34+3.30−1.42−0.10−0.61+0.80−0.32+1.60−0.88−9.6FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 18 matches

Hearts

4−1.313+5.623+7.64−3.90−5.05−2.93−2.75+0.69+1.68+0.95−0.63−2.36+1.44−1.77+0.73−1.14−0.51−2.43−0.33−2.31−0.62+0.40−1.11−0.17+4.81+0.10−0.92+1.41+0.20−0.8FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 18 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Hibernian

0.010.010.010.010.010.030.030.060.040.030.020.030.070.020.020.020.020.080.120.100.040.01−0.050.17LessMore

Hearts

0.010.020.010.010.010.020.020.010.030.010.010.010.020.040.01−0.010.060.03−0.050.030.070.09LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.27AttackHibernian1.13 → 1.13Hearts1.21 → 1.20Defence (lower is better)Hibernian1.34 → 1.32Hearts1.27 → 1.27

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Hibernian
Top six65%52%−13
11th2%4%+2
Bottom<1%1%+1
Hearts
Top six96%99%+3
Aberdeen
Top six60%63%+3
11th2%2%0
St. Mirren
Top six44%47%+3

From the forecast before the match (27 December 2023): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

HibernianHearts
Expected goals1.371.14
Win41%31%
Expected Points1.521.20
Clean sheet32%26%

Hibernian 41%Draw 28%Hearts 31%

Most likely score 1–1, 13%. Both sides score 51%.

Hearts goalsHibernian goals0123456+0123456+9%9%5%2%7%3%8%9%5%2%3%4%2%1%1%11%13%

From the forecast as it stood on 27 December 2023: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowHibernian winDrawHearts win
Hibernian
Top six65%76%63%52%
11th2%1%2%4%
Bottom<1%<1%<1%1%
Hearts
Top six96%94%96%99%
Aberdeen
Top six60%57%60%63%
11th2%2%3%2%
St. Mirren
Top six44%42%45%47%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Hibernian

  1. L0–116 DecSt. Johnstone (A)xG 0.10–0.94
  2. W1–09 DecLivingston (A)xG 0.22–1.34
  3. L1–46 DecCeltic (A)xG 1.50–4.10
  4. W2–03 DecAberdeen (H)xG 1.73–3.86
  5. W2–125 NovDundee FC (A)xG 0.84–1.42
  6. W1–011 NovKilmarnock (H)xG 0.41–0.46

Hearts

  1. W2–023 DecSt. Mirren (H)xG 1.20–0.64
  2. W2–016 DecCeltic (A)xG 0.34–1.60
  3. L1–29 DecAberdeen (A)xG 0.33–1.74
  4. L0–16 DecRangers (H)xG 1.03–2.53
  5. W1–02 DecKilmarnock (A)xG 0.73–1.16
  6. W1–025 NovSt. Johnstone (H)xG 1.44–0.85

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

HibernianHearts
Position6th4th
Played1818
Won, drawn, lost6–⁠6–⁠69–⁠2–⁠7
Points24 (1.33 per game)29 (1.61 per game)
Expected Points per game1.081.23
Goals24–⁠2619–⁠15
xG per game1.06–⁠1.471.06–⁠1.45
Home: points, xG per game1.50, 1.35–⁠1.341.56, 1.18–⁠1.33
Away: points, xG per game1.20, 0.83–⁠1.571.67, 0.95–⁠1.56
ManagerNick Montgomery (14)Steven Naismith (14)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.27AttackHibernian1.13, 6thHearts1.21, 3rdDefence (lower is better)Hibernian1.34, 6thHearts1.27, 4th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovDecHibernian attack: 1.13Hearts attack: 1.211.211.13HeartsHibernianDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovDecHibernian defence: 1.34Hearts defence: 1.271.341.27

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

HibernianHearts
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−13%+15%−12%+3%
Counter-attacks−60%−25%−33%−17%
Set pieces−11%−5%−7%+15%
Penalties−67%+33%−100%+33%
Headers−16%−21%−33%−2%
Left side−13%+1%−12%−4%
Centre−18%−3%−19%−3%
Right side−14%+35%−1%+31%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Hibernian attacking

Hibernian createdHearts concededLeft side−13%+31%Centre−18%−3%Right side−14%−4%Open play−13%+3%Counter-attacks−60%−17%Set pieces−11%+15%Headers−16%−2%

Hearts attacking

Hearts createdHibernian concededLeft side−12%+35%Centre−19%−3%Right side−1%+1%Open play−12%+15%Counter-attacks−33%−25%Set pieces−7%−5%Headers−33%−21%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

HibernianHearts

1.06xG1.06
1.47xG against1.45
52%Possession55%
10.2Shots12.9
15.1Shots against13.7
3.6Shots on target4.1
1.8Big chances1.1
20.8Touches in the opposition box25.1
421Passes454
77%Pass accuracy75%
4.4Corners7.2
45%Field tilt52%
34.5Final-third entries40.6
11.1Box entries12.2
16.3Passes per defensive action12.7

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Hibernian

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level401.001.23
Ahead280.981.64
Behind221.271.69

Hearts

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level411.211.07
Ahead320.801.62
Behind171.222.01

xG by period

Hibernian

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.080.192–3
16–300.220.153–3
31–450.150.223–2
46–600.180.243–5
61–750.190.319–6
76–900.240.374–7

Hearts

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.080.153–2
16–300.220.265–2
31–450.090.211–1
46–600.150.342–2
61–750.280.156–3
76–900.250.342–5

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Hibernian

GKRBCBCBLBRMCMCMLMSTSTMarshall 17Wollacott 1Miller 12Whittaker 3Fish 1Fish 17Bushiri 11Hanlon 7Stevenson 1Obita 10Stevenson 7Levitt 1Youan 6Boyle 5Campbell 4Jeggo 11Levitt 8Doyle-Hayes 1Newell 16Tavares 8Youan 6Boyle 3Boyle 7Doidge 5Youan 1Vente 15Le Fondre 4Campbell 34-4-2 in 13 of 18 starts

Formations: 4-4-2 (13), 4-3-3 (2), 4-4-1-1 (1), 3-5-2 (1), 4-2-3-1 (1)

Hearts

GKCBCBCBRWBCMCMCMLWBSTSTClark 18Kingsley 7Atkinson 5Sibbick 4Kent 18Halkett 1Rowles 18Oda 5Forrest 5Atkinson 3Nieuwen… 10NieuwenhofOda 1Offiah 1Baningime 10Boyce 3Shankland 2Devlin 7Grant 6Lowry 6Cochrane 9Lowry 3Vargas 3Shankland 16Tagawa 2Kingsley 6Vargas 4Boyce 43-5-2 in 8 of 18 starts

Formations: 3-5-2 (8), 4-2-3-1 (8), 3-4-2-1 (1), 4-3-3 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
7 October 2023Hearts2–2HibernianxG 1.25–1.32
27 May 2023Hearts1–1HibernianxG 0.11–1.50
15 April 2023Hibernian1–0HeartsxG 0.99–0.89
2 January 2023Hearts3–0HibernianxG 1.76–1.19
7 August 2022Hibernian1–1HeartsxG 1.50–0.96
9 April 2022Hearts3–1HibernianxG 0.94–0.52

8 league meetings since 2020/21: Hibernian won 1, Hearts won 2, and 5 were drawn. Goals 6–10 and xG 1.14–1.06 per game.

Key players

Hibernian

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Doidge5498320.490.05
Le Fondre4506310.410.02
Youan131,287230.200.14
Vente151,109320.200.08

Hearts

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Boyce7631130.360.20
Shankland181,6201000.370.14
Lowry9671010.110.25
Cochrane11990030.060.26

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.