Digressive Celts

Matches › 2023/24

Kilmarnock 2–2 Hibernian

Saturday 16 September 2023, 15:00 · The BBSP Stadium Rugby Park · Round 5 · Half-time 0–1 · Referee David Dickinson · Attendance 6,277

Kilmarnock Vassell 61', Wright 79'

Hibernian Dennis 8' (og), Vente 59'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

KilmarnockHibernian
Goals22
xG0.830.92
Expected Points1.251.39

Kilmarnock 29%Draw 36%Hibernian 34%

Most likely score 0–0, 17%. Final score 2–2, 3%.

Hibernian goalsKilmarnock goals0123456+0123456+7%2%6%2%6%6%3%1%1%17%16%14%16%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

00.250.50.7510153045607590HTO'Hara on for Dennis, 45'Watson on for Lyons, 66'Murray on for Armstrong and Dallas on for Watkins, 87'Le Fondre on for Doidge, 46'Campbell on for Vente, 66'Obita on for Stevenson and Tavares on for Youan, 85'Vassell 61'Wright 79'Dennis 8' (og)Vente 59'Hibernian 0.92Kilmarnock 0.8300.250.50.7510153045607590HTO'Hara on for Dennis, 45'Watson on for Lyons, 66'Murray on for Armstrong and Dallas on for Watkins, 87'Le Fondre on for Doidge, 46'Campbell on for Vente, 66'Obita on for Stevenson and Tavares on for Youan, 85'Vassell 61'Wright 79'Dennis 8' (og)Vente 59'0.920.83KilmarnockHibernian

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

KilmarnockHibernian

0.83 −0.10xG0.92 −0.16
0.87 −0.41xG on target0.75 −0.54
16 +4Shots11 0
5 +1.5Shots on target4 −0.2
1 −0.2Big chances0 −2.0
46% +2Possession54% −1
373 +39Passes454 +64
71% +9Pass accuracy76% +3
46% −1Field tilt54% +1
34 0Final-third entries28 −11
12 0Box entries9 −2
12.8 −4Passes per defensive action24.3 +13
4 −2.8Corners4 −0.5
16 +3Tackles11 −2
2 −5.8Interceptions6 −2.8
11 −8Clearances21 +6
3 −0.2Saves3 +1.2
16 +4Fouls8 −5
0 −0.2Offsides2 +0.8

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Kilmarnock

Lyons 61', 0.14 xGWatkins 34', 0.11 xGArmstrong 40', 0.10 xGLyons 40', 0.08 xGDeas 90+4', 0.07 xGVassell 64', 0.05 xGFindlay 31', 0.04 xGKennedy 38', 0.03 xGArmstrong 18', 0.02 xGLyons 28', 0.02 xGKennedy 67', 0.02 xGArmstrong 70', 0.02 xGArmstrong 54', 0.01 xGVassell 87', 0.01 xGWright 79', 0.08 xG, goalVassell 61', 0.05 xG, goal23%0.19 xGSix-yard box: 2 shots, 0.19 xG, 1 goal22%0.18 xGCentral box: 2 shots, 0.18 xG, 0 goals20%0.17 xGWide in the box: 4 shots, 0.17 xG, 1 goal31%0.26 xGEdge of the box: 6 shots, 0.26 xG, 0 goals4%0.03 xGFurther out: 2 shots, 0.03 xG, 0 goals

Hibernian

Boyle 6', 0.16 xGJeggo 29', 0.12 xGMiller 8', 0.11 xGBushiri 75', 0.11 xGBoyle 1', 0.09 xGDoidge 29', 0.08 xGLe Fondre 74', 0.08 xGYouan 19', 0.06 xGNewell 36', 0.05 xGBoyle 15', 0.02 xGVente 59', 0.05 xG, goal0%0.00 xGSix-yard box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals75%0.69 xGCentral box: 7 shots, 0.69 xG, 1 goal14%0.13 xGWide in the box: 2 shots, 0.13 xG, 0 goals11%0.10 xGEdge of the box: 2 shots, 0.10 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

KilmarnockHibernian

0.40 9 shots, 1 goalOpen play0.65 8 shots, 1 goal
0.43 7 shots, 1 goalSet pieces0.26 3 shots, 0 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
23 min (24%) · Kilmarnock 0.08, Hibernian 0.26 xG
Hibernian ahead
73 min (76%) · Kilmarnock 0.75, Hibernian 0.66 xG

Line-ups

1546178112316109DennisMayoWrightDeasFindlayLyonsArmstrongWatkinsMagennisKennedyVassellOwn goalGoalYellow cardYellow cardYellow cardYellow cardGoalYellow card45'66'87'87'Kilmarnock 4-1-4-1Derek McInnes12533167141110923MarshallMillerFishBushiriStevensonYouanJeggoNewellBoyleVenteDoidgeYellow cardYellow cardYellow cardGoal85'85'66'46'Hibernian 4-4-2Nick Montgomery

Kilmarnock substitutes

  • 45' O'Hara for Dennis
  • 66' Watson for Lyons
  • 87' Dallas for Watkins
  • 87' Murray for Armstrong

Hibernian substitutes

  • 46' Le Fondre for Doidge
  • 66' Campbell for Vente
  • 85' Tavares for Youan
  • 85' Obita for Stevenson · yellow card 90+4'

Players

Kilmarnock

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
DennisGK450.000.0000.0110
MayoRB900.000.0000.0126
WrightCB9010.080.0110.0557
Deas CB900.070.0100.0022
FindlayLB900.040.0000.0453
Lyons DM660.240.010−0.0222
Armstrong RM8710.140.4260.42102
WatkinsCM870.110.021−0.0931
Magennis CM900.000.1200.1146
KennedyLM900.050.1520.27111
Vassell ST9010.110.0100.0302
O'HaraGK450.000.0000.0120
WatsonMF240.000.0100.0200
DallasFW30.000.0000.0100
MurrayFW30.000.0000.0010

Hibernian

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
MarshallGK900.000.0000.0461
Miller RB900.110.1540.1754
Fish CB900.000.0100.0764
BushiriCB900.110.0000.0324
StevensonLB850.000.0210.0864
YouanRM8510.060.0310.0783
JeggoCM900.120.0810.1439
NewellCM900.050.0910.0062
Boyle LM900.280.1210.2073
VenteST6610.050.4110.1201
DoidgeST460.080.000−0.0313
Le FondreFW440.080.000−0.0112
CampbellMF240.000.000−0.0100
TavaresMF50.000.0000.0010
Obita DF50.000.000−0.0100

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Kilmarnock

Dennis and Mayo: 3 passesMayo and Lyons: 3 passesMayo and Armstrong: 3 passesMayo and Magennis: 3 passesWright and Magennis: 3 passesDeas and Kennedy: 3 passesFindlay and Kennedy: 3 passesFindlay and Vassell: 3 passesLyons and Magennis: 3 passesArmstrong and Watkins: 3 passesMagennis and Kennedy: 3 passesMagennis and Vassell: 3 passesKennedy and Vassell: 3 passesDeas and Lyons: 4 passesArmstrong and Kennedy: 4 passesWright and Armstrong: 5 passesLyons and Kennedy: 5 passesArmstrong and Magennis: 5 passesWatkins and Kennedy: 5 passesDennis and Deas: 9 passesDeas and Findlay: 14 passesMayo and Wright: 15 passesWright and Deas: 19 passesDennis: 12 completed passesMayo: 16 completed passesWright: 27 completed passesDeas: 25 completed passesFindlay: 16 completed passesLyons: 12 completed passesArmstrong: 11 completed passesMagennis: 15 completed passesWatkins: 6 completed passesKennedy: 14 completed passesVassell: 4 completed passes1546178111623109DennisMayoWrightDeasFindlayLyonsArmstrongMagennisWatkinsKennedyVassellStarters until 45' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Hibernian

Bushiri and Fish: 4 passesBushiri and Jeggo: 4 passesFish and Newell: 4 passesStevenson and Doidge: 4 passesYouan and Vente: 4 passesMarshall and Fish: 5 passesMiller and Boyle: 5 passesBushiri and Doidge: 5 passesJeggo and Newell: 5 passesMiller and Newell: 6 passesFish and Jeggo: 6 passesStevenson and Newell: 6 passesJeggo and Doidge: 6 passesNewell and Boyle: 6 passesBushiri and Newell: 7 passesYouan and Jeggo: 7 passesMiller and Jeggo: 9 passesMiller and Youan: 10 passesBushiri and Stevenson: 11 passesYouan and Newell: 11 passesMiller and Fish: 12 passesMarshall and Bushiri: 16 passesMarshall: 17 completed passesMiller: 24 completed passesBushiri: 26 completed passesFish: 21 completed passesStevenson: 17 completed passesYouan: 21 completed passesJeggo: 24 completed passesNewell: 26 completed passesBoyle: 7 completed passesVente: 7 completed passesDoidge: 10 completed passes12335167141110923MarshallMillerBushiriFishStevensonYouanJeggoNewellBoyleVenteDoidgeStarters until 46' · lines join pairs with 4+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Kilmarnock

FromToPasses
WrightMayo16
MayoWright14
WrightDeas13
FindlayDeas9
FindlayWright9

Hibernian

FromToPasses
BushiriMarshall15
StevensonNewell11
FishMiller9
BushiriStevenson9
MillerFish9

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Kilmarnock

3−2.270.010−2.23−3.51−3.03−3.89+0.55−3.810+7.013+7.07+3.06−1.85−1.08+3.86+3.01−4.05+1.29+5.85+2.80−2.22+1.520.02−1.00−0.50−0.21+0.21+0.80−0.82−6.82−8.2FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 4 matches

Hibernian

5−2.86−0.817+6.57−0.23−2.23−1.26−0.27+2.510+3.011+3.25−1.23−1.01−3.214+7.86−0.57+1.22−1.02−0.26+1.55−0.81−1.01−0.80−1.00−2.50−3.00−1.00−0.50−0.20−0.20−1.2FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 4 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Kilmarnock

0.010.020.010.010.010.020.030.050.020.010.010.020.020.030.020.090.110.020.080.010.100.02−0.03−0.05−0.090.160.17LessMore

Hibernian

0.010.030.010.010.010.020.030.010.040.060.030.010.030.010.03−0.03−0.010.080.020.070.050.070.040.21LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.30AttackKilmarnock1.12 → 1.12Hibernian1.27 → 1.26Defence (lower is better)Kilmarnock1.36 → 1.36Hibernian1.27 → 1.27

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Kilmarnock
Top six42%40%−2
11th9%9%0
Bottom7%8%+1
Hibernian
Top six58%59%+1
11th4%5%+1
Bottom3%2%−1

From the forecast before the match (16 September 2023): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

KilmarnockHibernian
Expected goals1.301.19
Win39%33%
Expected Points1.441.27
Clean sheet31%27%

Kilmarnock 39%Draw 28%Hibernian 33%

Most likely score 1–1, 14%. Both sides score 51%.

Hibernian goalsKilmarnock goals0123456+0123456+9%9%6%2%8%3%7%8%5%2%3%4%2%1%1%10%14%

From the forecast as it stood on 16 September 2023: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowKilmarnock winDrawHibernian win
Kilmarnock
Top six42%51%40%31%
11th9%6%9%11%
Bottom7%4%8%10%
Hibernian
Top six58%49%59%68%
11th4%6%5%3%
Bottom3%5%2%2%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Kilmarnock

  1. L0–12 SepRoss County (H)xG 1.42–0.72
  2. L1–226 AugMotherwell (A)xG 1.05–2.15
  3. D0–013 AugHearts (A)xG 0.73–0.39
  4. W1–05 AugRangers (H)xG 0.52–1.36
  5. W3–128 MayRoss County (H)xG 1.46–1.25
  6. W3–024 MayDundee United (A)xG 1.90–0.99

Hibernian

  1. W2–03 SepAberdeen (A)xG 1.23–0.98
  2. L2–326 AugLivingston (H)xG 0.81–1.68
  3. L1–213 AugMotherwell (A)xG 0.86–0.60
  4. L2–36 AugSt. Mirren (H)xG 1.41–1.55
  5. D1–127 MayHearts (A)xG 1.50–0.11
  6. W4–224 MayCeltic (H)xG 2.04–2.37

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

KilmarnockHibernian
Position9th10th
Played44
Won, drawn, lost1–⁠1–⁠21–⁠0–⁠3
Points4 (1.00 per game)3 (0.75 per game)
Expected Points per game1.221.25
Goals2–⁠37–⁠8
xG per game0.93–⁠1.161.08–⁠1.20
Home: points, xG per game1.50, 0.97–⁠1.040.00, 1.11–⁠1.61
Away: points, xG per game0.50, 0.89–⁠1.271.50, 1.04–⁠0.79
ManagerDerek McInnes (42)Nick Montgomery (0)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.30AttackKilmarnock1.12, 7thHibernian1.27, 4thDefence (lower is better)Kilmarnock1.36, 6thHibernian1.27, 3rd

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0SepKilmarnock attack: 1.12Hibernian attack: 1.271.271.12HibernianKilmarnockDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0SepKilmarnock defence: 1.36Hibernian defence: 1.271.361.27

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

KilmarnockHibernian
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−49%−4%−20%−14%
Counter-attacks−35%−68%+15%+47%
Set pieces+18%−13%−22%−33%
Penalties+22%+35%+30%+56%
Headers−8%−26%−21%+32%
Left side+16%−46%−20%−22%
Centre−43%+1%−26%−16%
Right side−48%−4%−2%−5%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't. Until a side has played six matches its figures are blended with last season's, or with the league average where there is no last season to use.

Matchups

Kilmarnock attacking

Kilmarnock createdHibernian concededLeft side+16%−5%Centre−43%−16%Right side−48%−22%Open play−49%−14%Counter-attacks−35%+47%Set pieces+18%−33%Headers−8%+32%

Hibernian attacking

Hibernian createdKilmarnock concededLeft side−20%−4%Centre−26%+1%Right side−2%−46%Open play−20%−4%Counter-attacks+15%−68%Set pieces−22%−13%Headers−21%−26%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

KilmarnockHibernian

0.93xG1.08
1.16xG against1.20
44%Possession55%
12.5Shots11.5
11.8Shots against9.0
3.5Shots on target4.2
1.2Big chances2.0
334Passes390
62%Pass accuracy73%
6.8Corners4.5
46%Field tilt53%
34.1Final-third entries39.3
11.8Box entries11.5
16.6Passes per defensive action11.3

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Kilmarnock

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level630.721.02
Ahead180.811.72
Behind92.650.92

Hibernian

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level430.551.79
Ahead41.860.24
Behind431.540.70

xG by period

Kilmarnock

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.140.021–0
16–300.170.060–0
31–450.120.190–0
46–600.110.170–2
61–750.160.211–0
76–900.240.500–1

Hibernian

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.040.350–2
16–300.070.090–1
31–450.100.140–0
46–600.180.140–0
61–750.170.333–3
76–900.520.154–2

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Kilmarnock

GKCBCBCBRWBCMCMCMLWBSTSTDennis 4Mayo 4Deas 4Findlay 4Armstrong 4Watson 4Magennis 4Lyons 4Ndaba 2Kennedy 1Davies 1Kennedy 3Vassell 1Watkins 43-5-2 in 3 of 4 starts

Formations: 3-5-2 (3), 5-3-2 (1)

Hibernian

GKRBCBCBLBCMCMCMRWSTLWMarshall 4Miller 2Delferriere 1Harbottle 1Fish 3Hanlon 3Stevenson 1Bushiri 1Stevenson 2Obita 2Campbell 2Delferriere 1Doyle-Hayes 1Jeggo 3Levitt 1Newell 4Boyle 3Fish 1Doidge 3Vente 1Youan 3Vente 14-3-3 in 2 of 4 starts

Formations: 4-3-3 (2), 3-5-2 (1), 4-2-3-1 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
18 February 2023Hibernian2–0KilmarnockxG 2.94–0.82
12 November 2022Kilmarnock1–0HibernianxG 0.96–0.85
3 September 2022Hibernian1–0KilmarnockxG 1.44–0.39
16 January 2021Hibernian2–0KilmarnockxG 0.68–0.64
24 October 2020Kilmarnock0–1HibernianxG 0.97–1.50
1 August 2020Hibernian2–1KilmarnockxG 1.18–0.70

6 league meetings since 2020/21: Kilmarnock won 1, Hibernian won 5, and 0 were drawn. Goals 2–8 and xG 0.75–1.43 per game.

Key players

Kilmarnock

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Armstrong353,089980.250.24
Vassell151,290420.320.11
Murray4512000.080.16
Cameron5634110.200.04

Hibernian

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Youan342,900980.250.17
Boyle131,223610.280.13
Henderson111,177130.190.10
Doidge4537220.200.06

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes. Until a side has played six matches, last season's minutes at the club count too.