Digressive Celts

Matches › 2024/25

St. Johnstone 0–2 Kilmarnock

Saturday 3 May 2025, 15:00 · McDiarmid Park · Round 35 · Half-time 0–1 · Referee Iain Snedden · Attendance 5,191

Kilmarnock Watson 12', Armstrong 53' (pen)

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

St. JohnstoneKilmarnock
Goals02
xG1.431.39
Non-penalty xG1.430.61
Expected Points1.341.33

St. Johnstone 34%Draw 32%Kilmarnock 34%

Most likely score 1–1, 20%. Final score 0–2, 5%.

Kilmarnock goalsSt. Johnstone goals0123456+0123456+2%9%5%2%4%11%3%3%13%9%2%1%5%3%1%1%20%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

00.511.50153045607590HTSidibeh on for Kirk and Clark on for Griffith, 65'Franczak on for McPake, 79'McKenzie on for Wales, 46'Vassell on for Armstrong and Watkins on for Anderson, 77'Ramsay on for Murray, 87'Polworth on for Watson, 89'Watson 12'Armstrong 53' (pen)St. Johnstone 1.43Kilmarnock 1.3900.511.50153045607590HTSidibeh on for Kirk and Clark on for Griffith, 65'Franczak on for McPake, 79'McKenzie on for Wales, 46'Vassell on for Armstrong and Watkins on for Anderson, 77'Ramsay on for Murray, 87'Polworth on for Watson, 89'Watson 12'Armstrong 53' (pen)1.431.39St. JohnstoneKilmarnock

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

St. JohnstoneKilmarnock

1.43 +0.42xG1.39 +0.06
1.43Non-penalty xG0.61
0.80 −0.21xG on target1.67 +0.47
18 +8Shots13 0
3 −0.1Shots on target4 +0.1
3 +1.6Big chances1 −1.0
20 +4Touches in the opposition box17 −5
68% +15Possession32% −12
468 +35Passes216 −95
76% −1Pass accuracy46% −20
62% +16Field tilt38% −6
43 +8Final-third entries29 −3
11 +2.4Box entries7 −3.3
13.5 −2Passes per defensive action13.7 −1
5 +0.9Corners2 −3.6
7 −8Tackles13 −2
7 −0.9Interceptions10 +1.0
23 −10Clearances48 +12
2 −1.0Saves3 +0.5
12 +1Fouls16 +6
2 +0.4Offsides1 −0.2

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

St. Johnstone

Ikpeazu 34', 0.48 xGKirk 17', 0.19 xGIkpeazu 47', 0.16 xGIkpeazu 90+2', 0.09 xGKirk 34', 0.08 xGCarey 57', 0.07 xGMcPake 2', 0.05 xGSidibeh 67', 0.05 xGSidibeh 67', 0.04 xGGriffith 2', 0.03 xGGriffith 17', 0.03 xGIkpeazu 36', 0.03 xGMcPake 45', 0.03 xGClark 83', 0.03 xGMcPake 14', 0.02 xGKirk 28', 0.02 xGWatt 42', 0.02 xGFranczak 88', 0.01 xG47%0.67 xGSix-yard box: 3 shots, 0.67 xG, 0 goals34%0.49 xGCentral box: 6 shots, 0.49 xG, 0 goals4%0.06 xGWide in the box: 2 shots, 0.06 xG, 0 goals11%0.16 xGEdge of the box: 4 shots, 0.16 xG, 0 goals4%0.06 xGFurther out: 3 shots, 0.06 xG, 0 goals

Kilmarnock

Armstrong 23', 0.16 xGFindlay 6', 0.06 xGArmstrong 8', 0.06 xGFindlay 30', 0.04 xGDeas 32', 0.04 xGWatson 64', 0.04 xGPolworth 90', 0.04 xGDonnelly 24', 0.03 xGMurray 6', 0.02 xGVassell 88', 0.02 xGVassell 82', 0.01 xGWatson 12', 0.08 xG, goal0%0.00 xGSix-yard box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals43%0.26 xGCentral box: 3 shots, 0.26 xG, 0 goals7%0.04 xGWide in the box: 1 shot, 0.04 xG, 0 goals46%0.28 xGEdge of the box: 6 shots, 0.28 xG, 1 goal5%0.03 xGFurther out: 2 shots, 0.03 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

St. JohnstoneKilmarnock

0.74 13 shots, 0 goalsOpen play0.44 8 shots, 1 goal
0.70 5 shots, 0 goalsSet pieces0.16 4 shots, 0 goals
0.00 0 shots, 0 goalsPenalties0.79 1 shot, 1 goal

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
12 min (13%) · St. Johnstone 0.08, Kilmarnock 0.22 xG
Kilmarnock ahead
80 min (87%) · St. Johnstone 1.35, Kilmarnock 1.17 xG

Line-ups

123430114461927924FisherSpranglerBalodisDouglasCareyWattGriffithStevenKirkIkpeazuMcPakeYellow cardYellow card65'65'79'St. Johnstone 3-4-3Simo Valakari156173112212241519O'HaraMayoDeasFindlayNdabaArmstrongDonnellyWatsonWalesMurrayAndersonGoalYellow cardGoal77'89'46'87'77'Kilmarnock 4-4-2Derek McInnes

St. Johnstone substitutes

  • 65' Clark for Griffith
  • 65' Sidibeh for Kirk
  • 79' Franczak for McPake

Kilmarnock substitutes

  • 46' McKenzie for Wales
  • 77' Vassell for Armstrong
  • 77' Watkins for Anderson
  • 87' Ramsay for Murray
  • 89' Polworth for Watson

Players

St. Johnstone

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
FisherGK900.000.0000.0850
SpranglerCB900.000.0100.0735
BalodisCB900.000.0100.02111
DouglasCB900.000.1720.21118
CareyRWB900.070.1760.2160
Watt CM900.020.2120.27116
GriffithCM650.060.010−0.0204
StevenLWB900.000.0110.0243
KirkRW650.290.000−0.0300
Ikpeazu ST900.770.2920.2620
McPakeLW790.100.0510.1680
ClarkMF250.030.0200.0201
SidibehFW250.090.1510.2220
FranczakMF110.010.010−0.0103

Kilmarnock

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
O'HaraGK900.000.0000.0540
MayoRB900.000.0110.05512
DeasCB900.040.0000.00013
FindlayCB900.090.0010.03217
NdabaLB9010.000.0510.04312
Armstrong RM7711.010.1620.0265
DonnellyCM900.030.0300.0345
WatsonCM8910.130.0100.0422
WalesLM460.000.0310.0521
MurrayST870.020.0620.1145
AndersonST770.000.0410.0000
McKenzieMF440.000.000−0.0103
VassellFW130.030.0210.0210
WatkinsFW130.000.0000.0001
RamsayDF30.000.0000.0000
PolworthMF10.040.0000.0101

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

St. Johnstone

Fisher and Sprangler: 4 passesFisher and Steven: 4 passesSprangler and Steven: 4 passesBalodis and Carey: 4 passesSteven and Watt: 4 passesGriffith and Watt: 4 passesGriffith and McPake: 5 passesWatt and McPake: 5 passesSprangler and Carey: 6 passesCarey and Watt: 6 passesSteven and McPake: 6 passesWatt and Kirk: 6 passesDouglas and Carey: 7 passesFisher and Balodis: 8 passesSprangler and Watt: 9 passesBalodis and Griffith: 9 passesDouglas and Griffith: 9 passesBalodis and Watt: 10 passesSprangler and Balodis: 11 passesFisher and Watt: 12 passesDouglas and Steven: 13 passesBalodis and Douglas: 14 passesFisher and Douglas: 15 passesDouglas and McPake: 15 passesDouglas and Watt: 34 passesFisher: 24 completed passesSprangler: 27 completed passesBalodis: 33 completed passesDouglas: 61 completed passesCarey: 19 completed passesSteven: 20 completed passesGriffith: 18 completed passesWatt: 48 completed passesMcPake: 11 completed passesKirk: 7 completed passesIkpeazu: 4 completed passes123430111964424279FisherSpranglerBalodisDouglasCareyStevenGriffithWattMcPakeKirkIkpeazuStarters until 65' · lines join pairs with 4+ passes

Kilmarnock

O'Hara and Wales: 3 passesFindlay and Armstrong: 3 passesNdaba and Murray: 3 passesNdaba and Wales: 3 passesArmstrong and Murray: 3 passesWatson and Murray: 3 passesMurray and Wales: 3 passesArmstrong and Wales: 4 passesMayo and Armstrong: 6 passesO'Hara: 5 completed passesMayo: 6 completed passesFindlay: 6 completed passesDeas: 2 completed passesNdaba: 9 completed passesArmstrong: 7 completed passesWatson: 5 completed passesDonnelly: 8 completed passesMurray: 7 completed passesWales: 7 completed passesAnderson: 3 completed passes151763111222152419O'HaraMayoFindlayDeasNdabaArmstrongWatsonDonnellyMurrayWalesAndersonStarters until 46' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

St. Johnstone

FromToPasses
DouglasWatt23
WattDouglas20
BalodisDouglas17
DouglasFisher12
DouglasMcPake12

Kilmarnock

FromToPasses
MayoArmstrong7
WatsonMurray5
NdabaDonnelly4
O'HaraWales3
FindlayO'Hara3

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

St. Johnstone

3−2.49+1.75−2.25−0.67−0.46−1.65−1.87−0.111+3.45−0.11−3.41−2.32−2.54−1.61−2.02−0.81−0.84+1.33−0.61−1.21−0.40−0.90−1.30−1.70−0.70−0.31+0.61+0.71+0.34−14.1FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 34 matches

Kilmarnock

6+1.38+0.217+0.810+2.59+4.39+2.84−3.45−1.84−2.48+1.45−0.26+1.83−0.53−1.86+2.91−2.70−2.26+2.44−0.26+4.01−0.72+1.21−0.51−1.63+2.40−0.40−0.73+2.61+0.21−3.5FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 34 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

St. Johnstone

0.010.020.010.010.060.030.010.020.010.020.050.040.030.020.010.060.110.040.170.020.050.09−0.02−0.060.350.31LessMore

Kilmarnock

0.010.030.010.010.010.010.010.010.020.050.030.010.010.040.040.04−0.020.01−0.01−0.05−0.020.17LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.35AttackSt. Johnstone1.01 → 1.00Kilmarnock1.24 → 1.24Defence (lower is better)St. Johnstone1.57 → 1.57Kilmarnock1.36 → 1.36

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
St. Johnstone
11th10%4%−6
Bottom88%96%+8
Kilmarnock
11th6%1%−5
Bottom<1%–0
Ross County
11th60%68%+8
Bottom10%3%−7
Dundee FC
11th22%24%+2
Bottom2%<1%−2

From the forecast before the match (3 May 2025): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

St. JohnstoneKilmarnock
Expected goals1.201.28
Win34%38%
Expected Points1.301.42
Clean sheet28%30%

St. Johnstone 34%Draw 28%Kilmarnock 38%

Most likely score 1–1, 14%. Both sides score 51%.

Kilmarnock goalsSt. Johnstone goals0123456+0123456+9%7%3%9%8%4%1%6%8%5%2%2%3%2%10%14%

From the forecast as it stood on 3 May 2025: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowSt. Johnstone winDrawKilmarnock win
St. Johnstone
11th10%20%8%4%
Bottom88%76%92%96%
Kilmarnock
11th6%10%5%1%
Bottom<1%1%––
Ross County
11th60%49%64%68%
Bottom10%19%7%3%
Dundee FC
11th22%20%20%24%
Bottom2%4%1%<1%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

St. Johnstone

  1. L2–326 AprMotherwell (A)xG 1.84–2.03
  2. L0–112 AprDundee United (A)xG 0.95–1.17
  3. W1–06 AprCeltic (H)xG 0.52–2.32
  4. L0–329 MarHibernian (A)xG 0.02–2.12
  5. D0–015 MarAberdeen (H)xG 0.64–0.58
  6. D1–11 MarDundee FC (A)xG 0.59–1.59

Kilmarnock

  1. W2–026 AprRoss County (H)xG 1.28–0.27
  2. L1–512 AprCeltic (A)xG 0.29–1.81
  3. W2–05 AprMotherwell (H)xG 1.22–0.18
  4. L1–529 MarSt. Mirren (A)xG 1.29–1.74
  5. D1–115 MarHibernian (H)xG 0.64–2.01
  6. L0–11 MarRoss County (A)xG 2.52–1.10

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

St. JohnstoneKilmarnock
Position12th9th
Played3434
Won, drawn, lost8–⁠5–⁠2110–⁠8–⁠16
Points29 (0.85 per game)38 (1.12 per game)
Expected Points per game1.081.31
Goals35–⁠6140–⁠58
xG per game1.01–⁠1.531.33–⁠1.43
Home: points, xG per game1.06, 1.12–⁠1.481.71, 1.70–⁠1.12
Away: points, xG per game0.67, 0.91–⁠1.570.53, 0.97–⁠1.75
ManagerSimo Valakari (27)Derek McInnes (110)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.35AttackSt. Johnstone1.01, 12thKilmarnock1.24, 7thDefence (lower is better)St. Johnstone1.57, 10thKilmarnock1.36, 6th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovDecJanFebMarAprSt. Johnstone attack: 1.01Kilmarnock attack: 1.241.241.01KilmarnockSt. JohnstoneDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovDecJanFebMarAprSt. Johnstone defence: 1.57Kilmarnock defence: 1.361.571.36

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

St. JohnstoneKilmarnock
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−34%+19%−14%+2%
Counter-attacks−61%−1%−50%−11%
Set pieces−15%+2%+20%+12%
Penalties+3%−38%+24%−17%
Headers−22%+17%+1%−13%
Left side−25%+32%+3%−4%
Centre−36%+10%−13%+8%
Right side−27%−2%−6%+1%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

St. Johnstone attacking

St. Johnstone createdKilmarnock concededLeft side−25%+1%Centre−36%+8%Right side−27%−4%Open play−34%+2%Counter-attacks−61%−11%Set pieces−15%+12%Headers−22%−13%

Kilmarnock attacking

Kilmarnock createdSt. Johnstone concededLeft side+3%−2%Centre−13%+10%Right side−6%+32%Open play−14%+19%Counter-attacks−50%−1%Set pieces+20%+2%Headers+1%+17%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

St. JohnstoneKilmarnock

1.01xG1.33
1.53xG against1.43
53%Possession44%
10.0Shots12.6
13.9Shots against12.3
3.1Shots on target3.9
1.4Big chances2.0
15.9Touches in the opposition box22.2
433Passes311
77%Pass accuracy66%
4.1Corners5.6
46%Field tilt44%
35.3Final-third entries31.6
8.6Box entries10.3
15.4Passes per defensive action14.7

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

St. Johnstone

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level361.061.60
Ahead150.991.56
Behind390.961.45

Kilmarnock

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level401.361.47
Ahead181.531.14
Behind321.191.55

xG by period

St. Johnstone

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.110.184–7
16–300.080.282–14
31–450.190.226–10
46–600.210.267–13
61–750.140.187–6
76–900.280.419–11

Kilmarnock

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.210.255–7
16–300.220.215–9
31–450.140.243–9
46–600.170.238–9
61–750.260.218–10
76–900.330.2911–14

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

St. Johnstone

GKCBCBCBRWBCMCMCMLWBSTSTRae 13Fisher 11Sinclair 10Cameron 12Wright 11Neilson 10Sanders 21Mitchell 6Kucheriavyi 1Mikulic 13Douglas 7Curtis 9Wright 9Clark 7Smith 14Carey 11MacPhers… 3MacPhersonSprangler 24Kirk 3Clark 3Holt 20Griffith 4Essel 4Raymond 13Wright 9Douglas 3Sidibeh 17Kirk 16Kimpioka 18Clark 8Duke-McKenna 23-5-2 in 7 of 34 starts

Formations: 3-5-2 (7), 4-3-1-2 (7), 3-4-3 (5), 3-4-2-1 (4), 3-4-1-2 (2), 4-4-1-1 (2), 4-3-3 (2), 4-4-2 (2), 4-2-3-1 (1), 4-3-2-1 (1), 4-1-3-2 (1)

Kilmarnock

GKRBCBCBLBRMCMCMLMSTSTMcCrorie 20O'Hara 14Lyons 11Mayo 10Armstrong 4Wright 19Mayo 18Deas 14Findlay 12Ndaba 16Deas 6Lyons 5Armstrong 18Murray 3Wright 3Watson 14Donnelly 10Murray 3Polworth 13Lyons 10Ndaba 4Murray 12Kennedy 11Wales 4Watkins 21Wales 7Murray 2Vassell 19Anderson 9Watson 24-4-2 in 17 of 34 starts

Formations: 4-4-2 (17), 3-4-1-2 (5), 4-3-3 (3), 3-4-2-1 (3), 3-5-2 (2), 3-4-3 (2), 4-2-3-1 (1), 4-1-4-1 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
15 February 2025Kilmarnock3–1St. JohnstonexG 1.40–0.67
23 November 2024St. Johnstone1–0KilmarnockxG 1.02–0.45
11 August 2024Kilmarnock0–3St. JohnstonexG 1.74–1.79
13 April 2024St. Johnstone0–2KilmarnockxG 1.22–3.51
23 December 2023Kilmarnock2–1St. JohnstonexG 1.37–1.37
1 November 2023St. Johnstone2–1KilmarnockxG 1.74–1.30

13 league meetings since 2020/21: St. Johnstone won 8, Kilmarnock won 4, and 1 was a draw. Goals 18–14 and xG 1.20–1.29 per game.

Key players

St. Johnstone

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Carey141,525330.170.28
Clark181,536620.350.06
Sidibeh191,773320.250.09
Kimpioka191,796620.270.04

Kilmarnock

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Anderson121,2201010.720.05
Kennedy131,129410.160.32
Vassell191,425210.320.09
Watkins221,940410.360.04

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.