Digressive Celts

Matches › 2024/25

Kilmarnock 2–0 Ross County

Saturday 26 April 2025, 15:00 · The BBSP Stadium Rugby Park · Round 34 · Half-time 1–0 · Referee Nick Walsh · Attendance 5,425

Kilmarnock Anderson 36', Donnelly 69'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

KilmarnockRoss County
Goals20
xG1.280.27
Expected Points2.200.51

Kilmarnock 63%Draw 30%Ross County 7%

Most likely score 1–0, 28%. Final score 2–0, 18%.

Ross County goalsKilmarnock goals0123456+0123456+5%9%18%5%7%2%2%20%28%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

00.511.50153045607590HTWatkins on for Anderson and Ramsay on for Armstrong, 80'McKenzie on for Murray, 87'Cameron on for Wales, 90'Efete on for Lopata, 46'Samuel on for Kenneh, 53'Nisbet on for Allardice, 59'Phillips on for Ashworth, 76'Anderson 36'Donnelly 69'Kilmarnock 1.28Ross County 0.2700.511.50153045607590HTWatkins on for Anderson and Ramsay on for Armstrong, 80'McKenzie on for Murray, 87'Cameron on for Wales, 90'Efete on for Lopata, 46'Samuel on for Kenneh, 53'Nisbet on for Allardice, 59'Phillips on for Ashworth, 76'Anderson 36'Donnelly 69'1.280.27KilmarnockRoss County

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

KilmarnockRoss County

1.28 −0.05xG0.27 −0.77
1.71 +0.52xG on target0.28 −0.70
13 0Shots8 −2
3 −0.9Shots on target2 −1.4
3 +1.0Big chances0 −1.3
24 +2Touches in the opposition box21 +6
42% −2Possession58% +18
273 −40Passes395 +110
56% −10Pass accuracy69% +6
35% −10Field tilt65% +29
33 +1Final-third entries33 +4
14 +3.8Box entries11 +3.9
12.6 −2Passes per defensive action13.1 −3
5 −0.7Corners4 −0.9
11 −4Tackles9 −9
11 +2.1Interceptions8 −2.2
44 +8Clearances53 +14
2 −0.5Saves1 −2.1
17 +7Fouls13 +2
0 −1.3Offsides1 −0.2

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Kilmarnock

Donnelly 52', 0.18 xGNdaba 67', 0.16 xGDeas 19', 0.12 xGMurray 62', 0.09 xGDeas 67', 0.09 xGAnderson 17', 0.06 xGFindlay 77', 0.06 xGWales 35', 0.05 xGArmstrong 59', 0.03 xGArmstrong 60', 0.03 xGArmstrong 35', 0.02 xGAnderson 36', 0.21 xG, goalDonnelly 69', 0.19 xG, goal30%0.39 xGSix-yard box: 2 shots, 0.39 xG, 1 goal52%0.67 xGCentral box: 6 shots, 0.67 xG, 1 goal11%0.14 xGWide in the box: 3 shots, 0.14 xG, 0 goals7%0.09 xGEdge of the box: 2 shots, 0.09 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Ross County

White 89', 0.07 xGHale 42', 0.04 xGHale 61', 0.04 xGWhite 63', 0.03 xGHale 82', 0.03 xGWright 28', 0.02 xGSamuel 71', 0.02 xGNisbet 62', 0.01 xG0%0.00 xGSix-yard box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals36%0.10 xGCentral box: 2 shots, 0.10 xG, 0 goals25%0.07 xGWide in the box: 2 shots, 0.07 xG, 0 goals25%0.07 xGEdge of the box: 3 shots, 0.07 xG, 0 goals14%0.04 xGFurther out: 1 shot, 0.04 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

KilmarnockRoss County

0.78 7 shots, 2 goalsOpen play0.20 5 shots, 0 goals
0.50 6 shots, 0 goalsSet pieces0.07 3 shots, 0 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
36 min (40%) · Kilmarnock 0.46, Ross County 0.02 xG
Kilmarnock ahead
54 min (60%) · Kilmarnock 0.82, Ross County 0.25 xG

Line-ups

156173112212241519O'HaraMayoDeasFindlayNdabaArmstrongDonnellyWatsonWalesMurrayAndersonGoalGoal80'90'87'80'Kilmarnock 4-4-2Derek McInnes181220196484215269AmissahTomkinsonLopataCampbellAllardiceWrightRandallKennehAshworthWhiteHaleYellow card46'59'53'76'Ross County 3-1-4-2Don Cowie

Kilmarnock substitutes

  • 80' Ramsay for Armstrong
  • 80' Watkins for Anderson
  • 87' McKenzie for Murray
  • 90' Cameron for Wales

Ross County substitutes

  • 46' Efete for Lopata · yellow card 57'
  • 53' Samuel for Kenneh
  • 59' Nisbet for Allardice
  • 76' Phillips for Ashworth

Players

Kilmarnock

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
O'HaraGK900.000.0100.0662
MayoRB900.000.0000.02311
DeasCB900.210.0300.07115
FindlayCB900.060.001−0.0416
NdabaLB900.160.0210.0949
ArmstrongRM8010.080.6040.2772
DonnellyCM9010.370.100−0.09211
WatsonCM900.000.0210.0327
WalesLM900.050.0110.1141
MurrayST870.090.3720.2761
AndersonST80110.270.012−0.1412
RamsayDF100.000.0000.0003
WatkinsFW100.000.000−0.0100
McKenzieMF30.000.0000.0200
CameronFW00.000.000−0.0100

Ross County

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
AmissahGK900.000.0100.0641
TomkinsonCB900.000.1310.30615
LopataCB460.000.1800.01015
Campbell CB900.000.0300.07616
AllardiceDM590.000.0300.0454
WrightRWB900.020.3410.23510
RandallCM900.000.0300.0151
KennehCM530.000.000−0.0101
AshworthLWB760.000.0900.0636
WhiteST900.100.032−0.1712
HaleST900.110.021−0.0300
Efete MF440.000.0510.0841
SamuelFW370.020.020−0.0700
NisbetMF310.010.0710.0831
PhillipsFW140.000.0000.0000

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Kilmarnock

Mayo and Armstrong: 3 passesMayo and Donnelly: 3 passesDeas and Armstrong: 3 passesNdaba and Anderson: 3 passesWatson and Donnelly: 3 passesWatson and Anderson: 3 passesWatson and Murray: 3 passesDonnelly and Murray: 3 passesWales and Murray: 3 passesO'Hara and Findlay: 4 passesFindlay and Ndaba: 4 passesFindlay and Donnelly: 4 passesWales and Anderson: 4 passesMayo and Deas: 5 passesMayo and Watson: 5 passesArmstrong and Anderson: 5 passesAnderson and Murray: 5 passesDeas and Donnelly: 6 passesNdaba and Murray: 6 passesArmstrong and Watson: 6 passesFindlay and Deas: 8 passesNdaba and Donnelly: 8 passesArmstrong and Murray: 8 passesNdaba and Wales: 9 passesO'Hara: 7 completed passesMayo: 11 completed passesFindlay: 17 completed passesDeas: 14 completed passesNdaba: 22 completed passesArmstrong: 16 completed passesWatson: 16 completed passesDonnelly: 18 completed passesWales: 8 completed passesAnderson: 9 completed passesMurray: 11 completed passes151763111222241915O'HaraMayoFindlayDeasNdabaArmstrongWatsonDonnellyWalesAndersonMurrayStarters until 80' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Ross County

Amissah and Hale: 3 passesTomkinson and Campbell: 3 passesTomkinson and Randall: 3 passesLopata and Allardice: 4 passesTomkinson and White: 4 passesAllardice and Wright: 4 passesAshworth and Hale: 4 passesAshworth and White: 4 passesTomkinson and Hale: 5 passesAllardice and Kenneh: 5 passesAllardice and Randall: 5 passesWright and Randall: 5 passesKenneh and Ashworth: 5 passesHale and White: 5 passesAmissah and Campbell: 6 passesWright and White: 6 passesAllardice and White: 7 passesTomkinson and Wright: 8 passesCampbell and Ashworth: 8 passesAllardice and Ashworth: 8 passesWright and Hale: 8 passesAmissah and Lopata: 10 passesTomkinson and Allardice: 10 passesLopata and Tomkinson: 12 passesLopata and Campbell: 13 passesCampbell and Allardice: 17 passesAmissah: 14 completed passesLopata: 20 completed passesTomkinson: 24 completed passesCampbell: 28 completed passesAllardice: 35 completed passesWright: 20 completed passesKenneh: 8 completed passesRandall: 9 completed passesAshworth: 17 completed passesHale: 15 completed passesWhite: 13 completed passes182012196442815926AmissahLopataTomkinsonCampbellAllardiceWrightKennehRandallAshworthHaleWhiteStarters until 46' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Kilmarnock

FromToPasses
NdabaWales7
NdabaDonnelly6
ArmstrongMurray5
WatsonArmstrong5
FindlayDeas5

Ross County

FromToPasses
AllardiceCampbell9
CampbellAllardice8
CampbellLopata7
WrightTomkinson7
HaleWhite7

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Kilmarnock

5+0.45−2.914−2.36−1.53−1.813+7.19+1.76−0.93−3.59+2.51−4.36+1.83−0.56+1.52−2.83−0.13−0.82−0.25+1.59+4.920.01−0.72+1.21−0.53+0.51+0.41+0.60−0.81+0.60−0.8FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 33 matches

Ross County

5−0.65−2.322+3.310+0.99+2.910+2.110+2.610+2.77−1.08−0.26+0.62−2.44+0.12−2.33−0.630.00−1.930.04+0.50−1.71−0.210.00−2.32+1.31+0.80−0.41+0.92+1.22−3.30−2.7FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 33 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Kilmarnock

0.040.010.020.010.010.010.02−0.010.010.040.04−0.010.050.040.100.010.10−0.01−0.24−0.100.070.140.130.16LessMore

Ross County

0.010.020.010.020.050.010.020.010.020.010.020.010.010.050.020.060.13−0.02−0.050.090.04−0.06−0.170.200.18LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.35AttackKilmarnock1.21 → 1.24Ross County1.04 → 1.02Defence (lower is better)Kilmarnock1.40 → 1.36Ross County1.59 → 1.61

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Kilmarnock
11th12%4%−8
Bottom2%<1%−2
Ross County
11th31%40%+9
Bottom9%13%+4
St. Johnstone
11th16%17%+1
Bottom76%73%−3
Dundee FC
11th36%34%−2
Bottom12%13%+1

From the forecast before the match (26 April 2025): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

KilmarnockRoss County
Expected goals1.700.96
Win54%21%
Expected Points1.870.87
Clean sheet38%18%

Kilmarnock 54%Draw 25%Ross County 21%

Most likely score 1–1, 12%. Both sides score 51%.

Ross County goalsKilmarnock goals0123456+0123456+8%6%3%1%6%2%5%2%6%5%3%2%2%1%11%12%10%10%

From the forecast as it stood on 26 April 2025: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowKilmarnock winDrawRoss County win
Kilmarnock
11th12%4%14%27%
Bottom2%<1%3%6%
Ross County
11th31%40%29%12%
Bottom9%13%7%2%
St. Johnstone
11th16%17%14%14%
Bottom76%73%78%80%
Dundee FC
11th36%34%37%40%
Bottom12%13%12%12%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Kilmarnock

  1. L1–512 AprCeltic (A)xG 0.29–1.81
  2. W2–05 AprMotherwell (H)xG 1.22–0.18
  3. L1–529 MarSt. Mirren (A)xG 1.29–1.74
  4. D1–115 MarHibernian (H)xG 0.64–2.01
  5. L0–11 MarRoss County (A)xG 2.52–1.10
  6. L2–426 FebRangers (H)xG 1.38–1.95

Ross County

  1. L2–312 AprSt. Mirren (A)xG 1.43–2.16
  2. L0–15 AprAberdeen (H)xG 1.19–1.47
  3. L0–130 MarDundee United (H)xG 0.36–1.87
  4. L0–215 MarHearts (A)xG 0.29–1.73
  5. W1–01 MarKilmarnock (H)xG 1.10–2.52
  6. L0–126 FebSt. Johnstone (A)xG 0.26–1.26

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

KilmarnockRoss County
Position9th10th
Played3333
Won, drawn, lost9–⁠8–⁠169–⁠8–⁠16
Points35 (1.06 per game)35 (1.06 per game)
Expected Points per game1.291.11
Goals38–⁠5833–⁠56
xG per game1.33–⁠1.471.04–⁠1.65
Home: points, xG per game1.62, 1.72–⁠1.171.18, 1.33–⁠1.26
Away: points, xG per game0.53, 0.97–⁠1.750.94, 0.74–⁠2.06
ManagerDerek McInnes (109)Don Cowie (48)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.35AttackKilmarnock1.21, 7thRoss County1.04, 11thDefence (lower is better)Kilmarnock1.40, 8thRoss County1.59, 11th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovDecJanFebMarAprKilmarnock attack: 1.21Ross County attack: 1.041.211.04Ross CountyKilmarnockDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovDecJanFebMarAprKilmarnock defence: 1.40Ross County defence: 1.591.591.40

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

KilmarnockRoss County
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−14%+5%−47%+36%
Counter-attacks−50%−10%−29%−12%
Set pieces+20%+14%−9%−11%
Penalties+25%−17%+66%+4%
Headers−3%−11%−45%+6%
Left side−1%−2%−19%+2%
Centre−13%+11%−37%+24%
Right side−4%+4%−43%+21%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Kilmarnock attacking

Kilmarnock createdRoss County concededLeft side−1%+21%Centre−13%+24%Right side−4%+2%Open play−14%+36%Counter-attacks−50%−12%Set pieces+20%−11%Headers−3%+6%

Ross County attacking

Ross County createdKilmarnock concededLeft side−19%+4%Centre−37%+11%Right side−43%−2%Open play−47%+5%Counter-attacks−29%−10%Set pieces−9%+14%Headers−45%−11%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

KilmarnockRoss County

1.33xG1.04
1.47xG against1.65
44%Possession40%
12.5Shots10.0
12.5Shots against14.9
3.9Shots on target3.4
2.0Big chances1.3
22.2Touches in the opposition box15.5
313Passes285
66%Pass accuracy64%
5.7Corners4.9
44%Field tilt36%
31.6Final-third entries29.1
10.2Box entries7.1
14.8Passes per defensive action15.9

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Kilmarnock

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level401.371.50
Ahead171.541.21
Behind331.191.55

Ross County

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level451.061.50
Ahead180.981.23
Behind271.052.16

xG by period

Kilmarnock

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.220.255–7
16–300.220.215–9
31–450.140.252–9
46–600.160.248–9
61–750.260.217–10
76–900.340.3011–14

Ross County

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.130.172–4
16–300.170.205–7
31–450.210.325–15
46–600.160.258–6
61–750.130.263–6
76–900.240.4310–18

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Kilmarnock

GKRBCBCBLBRMCMCMLMSTSTMcCrorie 20O'Hara 13Lyons 11Mayo 9Armstrong 4Wright 19Mayo 18Deas 13Findlay 11Ndaba 15Deas 6Lyons 5Armstrong 17Murray 3Wright 3Watson 13Lyons 10Murray 3Polworth 13Donnelly 9Ndaba 4Murray 12Kennedy 11Ndaba 3Watkins 21Wales 7Cameron 2Vassell 19Anderson 8Watson 24-4-2 in 16 of 33 starts

Formations: 4-4-2 (16), 3-4-1-2 (5), 4-3-3 (3), 3-4-2-1 (3), 3-5-2 (2), 3-4-3 (2), 4-2-3-1 (1), 4-1-4-1 (1)

Ross County

GKCBCBCBRWBCMCMCMLWBSTSTAmissah 15Laidlaw 15Hamilton 3Wright 26Tomkinson 8Efete 2Lopata 27Allardice 2Campbell 16Leak 14Nightingale 3Brown 17Efete 7Wright 6Randall 28Harmon 6Denholm 5Chilvers 18White 3Allardice 3Nisbet 15Kenneh 10Grieves 4Harmon 13Nisbet 5Campbell 4White 15Phillips 8Samuel 3Hale 23Chilvers 7Nisbet 33-5-2 in 10 of 33 starts

Formations: 3-5-2 (10), 3-4-1-2 (9), 3-5-1-1 (7), 3-4-3 (3), 4-4-2 (2), 3-4-2-1 (1), 5-3-2 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
1 March 2025Ross County1–0KilmarnockxG 1.10–2.52
5 January 2025Kilmarnock0–1Ross CountyxG 0.56–1.15
26 October 2024Ross County2–1KilmarnockxG 0.82–0.72
6 April 2024Kilmarnock1–0Ross CountyxG 0.98–0.47
25 November 2023Ross County0–0KilmarnockxG 0.88–0.65
2 September 2023Kilmarnock0–1Ross CountyxG 1.42–0.72

14 league meetings since 2020/21: Kilmarnock won 4, Ross County won 7, and 3 were drawn. Goals 15–18 and xG 1.22–1.12 per game.

Key players

Kilmarnock

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Anderson111,140900.740.06
Kennedy131,129410.160.32
Vassell191,425210.320.09
Watkins221,930410.360.04

Ross County

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Phillips8624210.390.10
Hale231,911900.420.04
White181,929600.320.05
Chilvers251,990350.120.16

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.